UKRAINE WAR BRIEF DAILY DRAFT
For: 2024-02-27
Slava Ukraini! Since June 2023 I have provided a daily draft for the Ukraine War Brief Podcast collecting news from over 40 sources daily much of which ends up in the script. I will make this Draft available here for those who wish to keep up with events on a daily basis.
INSIDE UKRAINE
ALONG THE CONTACT LINE
GSAFU Morning Report
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in its situation update at 06:00 on Feb. 27 stated that it was day 734 of the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation against Ukraine.
During the past day, 96 combat engagements took place. Over the past 24 hours, the enemy carried out 6 missile strikes, 92 air strikes, and 110 MLRS attacks across the positions of our troops and settlements. As a result of the Russian attacks, unfortunately, there are dead and wounded among the civilian population. Destruction and damage to residential buildings and other civilian infrastructure.
At the same time, Ukrainian soldiers continue to inflict losses in manpower and equipment on the occupying troops, exhausting the enemy along the entire front line.
The Ukrainian Air Force launched air strikes on 9 concentrations of enemy troops.
Ukrainian missile troops hit 2 concentrations of troops, weapons, and military equipment, 1 command post, and 1 UAV ground control station of the russian invaders.
Ukraine's Air Force downs another Russian Su-34 fighter jet
Lieutenant General Mykola Oleshchuk, Ukraine's Air Force Commander, reported on Telegram that Ukraine’s Air Force has downed another Russian Sukhoi Su-34 fighter jet on the eastern front.
Oleschuk noted that whilst Russian pilots managed to evade Ukrainian missiles yesterday, 26 February, they weren’t always so lucky.
The Khortytsia operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the Kup’yans’k, Lyman, and Bakhmut axes, in the northeastern part of Ukraine. )
Kup’yans’k axis: Ukrainian defenders repelled 2 attacks of the enemy near the settlements Ivanivka and Tabaivka plus 20 assaults near Syn’kivka (Kharkiv oblast)
Lyman axis: Ukrainian defenders repelled 6 attacks near Terny, (Donetsk oblast)
Bakhmut axis: Ukrainian forces repelled 9 attacks near Ivanivske, Klishchiivka (Donetsk oblast)
The Tavria operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the Avdiivka, Mar’inka, Shaktars’ke, and Zaporizhzhia axes, in the central-eastern and southeastern part of Ukraine.)
Avdiivka axis: Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 19 enemy attacks near Berdychi, Orlivka, Sjeverne, Pervomais’ke and Nevel’s’ke (Donetsk oblast).
Ukrainian forces withdraw from Sieverne and Stepove on Avdiivka front
The Armed Forces of Ukraine made a tactical retreat out of the Donetsk region villages of Sieverne and Stepove in the Avdiivka direction, reported the spokesperson for the Tavria group of forces Dmytro Lykhoviy.
"Our units have retreated from the small villages of Sieverne and Stepove on the Avdiivka front," Lykhoviy said.
According to him, there were up to 100 residents staying in these settlements before the war. Fierce battles for Sieverne lasted from yesterday evening and through the night. The enemy suffered significant losses here.
Russian forces have not stopped after capturing Avdiivka, and continue to advance using large forces. The occupiers are pressing on the surrounding villages.On February 26, the Ukrainian Armed Forces withdrew from the settlement of Lastochkyne.
Grumpy Here — It should be noted that these are planned withdrawals to new defensive positions that the AFU began preparing back in Dec. 2023
Mar’inka axis: Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to hold back the occupiers in the vicinities of Krasnohorivka Heorhiivka, and Pobjeda (Donetsk oblast). Troops repelled 8 attacks in that area.
Shakhtarske axis: The enemy did not conduct any offensive (assault) operations.
Zaporizhzhia axis: Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 6 attacks near Robotyne (Zaporizhzhia oblast).
The Odesa operational-strategic group
(Responsible for Kherson, Qırım, (also known as Crimea) and the Black Sea.)
Kherson axis: Ukrainian defenders continue to expand the bridgehead. Despite significant losses, the enemy does not abandon its attempts to dislodge Ukrainian troops from their positions. Over the past day, the enemy carried out 2 unsuccessful assaults on the positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces on the left bank of the Dnipro River.
Russian guided missile cruisers not deployed for over a week
The Southern Defenсe Forces of Ukraine reported that Russian guided missile cruisers have not left their bases in the Black Sea in over a week. However, the General Staff continues to assess the military threat from the sea as high. Nataliia Humeniuk, head of the Joint Press Centre for Operational Command Pivden (South) reported
"The activities of the [Ukrainian] Defence Forces and weather conditions are not conducive to ensuring that the enemy’s convoys are used to their full potential, and they cannot manoeuvre as they usually would in the Black Sea. We have not seen Russian guided missile cruisers in open waters of the Black Sea for more than a week; they are instead stationed at their bases.
But keep in mind that they are equipped and kept on standby, and can be mobilised in two to three hours. The enemy can also attack Ukraine with shipborne missiles without leaving Crimean internal waters. This goes against common sense and is a bad idea, as it can lead to collateral damage in their occupied territories, but they have already done so anyway. Therefore, the General Staff continues to report a high threat level from the sea."
Yesterday we reported on an intelligence update from the UK Ministry of Defence stating that Ukraine now dominates in the Western Part of the Black Sea.
TEMPORARILY OCCUPIED TERRITORIES
Nothing to report.
THE HOME FRONT
Ukraine Appoints new chairman of the National Agency for the Prevention of Corruption (NAPC).
Taras Melnychuk, a representative of the Verkhovna Rada announced that the Cabinet of Minsiters had appointed Viktor Pavlushchyk as chairman National Agency for the Prevention of Corruption (NAPC).
Previously a competitive selection committee for the position of chairman National Agency for the Prevention of Corruption declared the winner of the competition of Viktor Pavlushchyk.
The competition to select the head of the NACP started in December 2023. It consisted of the following stages: testing for general abilities and reliability; practical tasks and provision of a strategic vision for the development of the NACP; conversations with a psychologist; and interviews for integrity and professionalism. 64 candidates applied for the competition, and 51 of them passed the testing stage. 24 candidates were admitted to the interview stage based on the results of practical tasks.
RUSSIAN WORLD
Russians have not deployed A-50 aircraft for several days
Yurii Ihnat, spokesman for the Ukrainian Air Force stated that The Russians have not deployed any Beriev A-50 airborne early warning and control (AWACS) aircraft in several days, after Ukraine's Defence Forces downed the second such aircraft on 23 February near the Sea of Azov.
"The frequency of A-50 operations has decreased. They have simply been out of action for several days. They haven't decided to send more and more aircraft.
They only have a few of these planes in their fleet. One was damaged in Belarus, you know. I don't know what its repair status is. They may have salvaged parts from one plane to repair another, which is a common practice worldwide. And then there are the two [we] destroyed. The enemy is already weighing up the risks and benefits of continuing to use these AWACS aircraft.
It may have long-range radar detection capabilities, but it also needs to get closer [to our air defences] to scan for signals deep inside Ukrainian territory."
— Yurii Ihnat, Ukrainian Air Force spokesman
Ihnat noted that Russian tactical aircraft also dropped guided bombs on Avdiivka, exposing them to air defences. As a result, they suffered significant losses (seven aircraft were downed in a week).
Massive Social media and cellular network outages reported in Russia
Russian propaganda sources report Problems with the YouTube, Viber, WhatsApp and VKontakte online services and their associated apps, as well as with the MTS, MegaFon, Beeline,Tele2, and Yota mobile service providers, have been reported in Russia.
In particular, Russian users stated that Telegram suffered a massive failure, with users reporting problems using the app over mobile internet. Some users cannot send messages or load chats in either the mobile or desktop version of the messenger.
The Federal Service for Supervision of Communications, Information Technology and Mass Media of Russia (Roskomnadzor) said that a massive failure of Telegram's network has been recorded in Russia, the United States, Germany, and other countries.
34% of complaints originate in the city of Moscow…
WORLD NEWS
Hungary finally ratifies Sweden's NATO accession
Sweden's final hurdle to joining NATO was swept away on Monday after hold-out Hungary's ratification, ending 200 years during which Stockholm's military self-reliance helped it build a global brand as neutral peacemaker and human rights champion. Reuters reports.
Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 left Swedes with a pivotal choice: join NATO or run the risk of standing alone against an increasingly aggressive near neighbour.
Sweden's neutrality began as a response to catastrophic wars - mainly against Russia - in the 18th and early 19th centuries and its policies have always been a mix of principle and pragmatism.
In recent decades, Sweden has leaned closer to NATO - in part because its own military was slashed after the collapse of the Soviet Union - and has contributed to missions in Afghanistan, Kosovo, Libya and Iraq.
Close partnership, however, is now seen as insufficient. NATO's Article 5 guarantees that an attack on any member is considered an attack on all.
Opinion polls have shifted in recent years and now show robust support for NATO membership in the nation of 10 million, especially as neighbour Finland, which shares a long border with Russia, has already joined.
"We were seeing right in front of our eyes ... horrible military aggression taking place against another country and we, unfortunately, were in a position of having a relatively unprepared defence," veteran diplomat Jan Eliasson, a former foreign minister and U.N. deputy secretary-general said.
"Aggression, war crimes, Finland and democracy. That was enough for me." He said
Macron did not rule out the possibility of sending Western troops to Ukraine.
The possibility of sending Western troops to Ukraine was discussed at a conference in Paris, but those present did not reach a consensus on this issue. Suspilne reports.
This was said by the President of France Emmanuel Macron after the conference on support for Ukraine, which took place in Paris on Feb. 26.
"We discussed it. There is currently no consensus on the deployment of troops. But nothing should be ruled out in this matter in the future. We will do everything possible to prevent Russia from winning this war, — said Macron.
French Prime Minister Gabriel Attal follows President Emmanuel Macron's statement on RTL radio said, which also does not exclude the sending of troops to Ukraine and added that Paris "will not be able to accept" Russia's victory.
"Nothing can be ruled out in the war that is going on... at the door of the European Union," — replied Attal to the question of whether French soldiers could be sent to Ukraine.
Zelenskyy arrives in Saudi Arabia
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has arrived in Saudi Arabia to discuss the Ukrainian Peace Formula and the ways to bring back captured and deported Ukrainians.
Zelensky said on Telegram that "I have arrived in Saudi Arabia in order to continue our regular dialogue with His Majesty Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud."
"Last year in Jeddah we held a productive meeting on the level of advisors concerning its implementation. Now we are close to holding the first Peace Summit and we hope Saudi Arabia will continue actively supporting Ukraine," Zelenskyy stated.
The ways of bringing back captured and deported persons are also to be discussed. "The leadership of Saudi Arabia has facilitated the liberation of our people. I am sure this meeting will have its results too," Zelenskyy recalled.
In addition to this, promising directions of economic cooperation and the participation of Saudi Arabia in the rebuilding of Ukraine will also be discussed.
MILITARY & TECH
Ukraine ‘Expects’ Ex-French Mirage 2000 Fighters. ‘We Are Talking,’ Zelenskyy Says.
David Axe of Forbes reports that Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy said at a press conference at the Ukraine: Year 2024 conference in Kyiv on Sunday “Yes, we are talking about fighter planes with France,”
Zelenskyy’s statement seems to confirm reporting from this year and last that the Ukrainian government has requested some of France’s surplus Mirage 2000 fighters.
What the statement doesn’t confirm is which version of the Mirage 2000 officials are discussing. Most observers assume the Ukrainians want Mirage 2000Ds that French plane-maker Dassault optimised for ground-attack missions. But French officials also have mentioned air-defence-optimised Mirage 2000Cs.
The single-engine, supersonic Mirage 2000 with its distinctive delta-shape wing was the French air force’s main fighter for 20 years starting in the mid-1980s. It began leaving service as new, twin-engine Rafales arrived in meaningful numbers in the early 2000s.
The ultimate version of the Mirage 2000C in French service had a single seat, an RDI pulse-doppler radar, the M53-P2 engine, a night-vision-compatible cockpit and provision for MICA radar-guided air-to-air missiles as well as laser-guided bombs.
The last few Mirage 2000Cs, out of around 120 Dassault built for the French air force, finally retired in 2022. It’s these old but well-maintained airframes an unnamed French official apparently was referring to when, last year, he told France 24 that one option for Paris was to donate to Kyiv 13 Mirage 2000Cs that still had “a bit of potential.”
Those jets could reinforce the Ukrainian air force’s fleet of 40 or so 1980s-vintage Sukhoi Su-27s that, for two years now, have patrolled Ukrainian air space and occasionally flown low-level bombing sorties.
The surplus Mirage 2000Cs could not reinforce the swing-wing Sukhoi Su-24 bombers that carry Ukraine’s French-made SCALP-EG land-attack cruise missiles. The 200-mile-range SCALPs are some of Ukraine’s best deep-strike munitions.
Two-seat Mirage 2000Ds could bolster the two- or three-dozen Su-24s, however. One of the main differences between the Mirage 2000C and the newer Mirage 2000D, beside the additional seat in the latter, is that the Ds are compatible with SCALPs as well as with most of France’s other precision air-to-ground munitions.
The French air force is upgrading, for another few years of service, 48 of the 86 Mirage 2000Ds that Dassault built, adding new munitions including MICA missiles.
The Cs are older. The Ds are younger. The Cs can fire MICA missiles but can’t fire SCALPs. The un-upgraded Ds can’t fire MICAs but can fire SCALPs. Which model the Ukrainians might prefer probably depends on what they want to do with the Mirages: shoot at Russian jets or strike Russian targets on the ground and at sea.
French officials have expressed their worry that training Ukrainian pilots on the Mirage 2000 might take too long to make a difference in the two-year-old war. And that maintaining the aging jets would be a challenge for the Ukrainian air force.
Which is why, despite escalating language from Ukrainian leaders, French leaders haven’t yet said yes to Ukrainian Mirage 2000s—and may never say yes.
Sweden to Provide Ukraine With New Package of Military Aid Including the CV90 IFV Latest Version
Sweden has given priority to Ukraine in receiving new versions of the CV90 infantry fighting vehicle, which are currently in production and will be similar to the version for the Netherlands - CV9035NL MLU IFV. Defense Express reports.
The government of Sweden is allocating a 15-count military aid package to Ukraine with a total cost of 7.1 billion Swedish kroner (about $680 mln), which will include a significant list of weapons.
In particular, it included 35 new CV90 infantry fighting vehicles. Although Sweden has already transferred IFVs of this type, this time we are talking about a new version. According to Dagens Nyheter, they will be similar to those currently being produced for the Netherlands.
Since 2021, the Dutch version of the CV9035NL Mk III is being upgraded to the CV9035NL MLU version. At the same time, obtaining the CV9035NL MLU in a completely similar version is in question, because Israeli Spike ATGMs are integrated into it, as well as the Iron Fist active protection system.
Therefore, most likely, we will be talking about some separate intermediate version with other equipment, in which the elements of the MLU version could be preserved, for example, a retractable panoramic sight and a fire control system with elements of artificial intelligence.
At the same time, even the previous version of CV9035NL Mk III is qualitatively different from the basic Swedish CV9040, which was received by the Armed Forces of Ukraine. In particular, the Dutch version, even in the Mk III version, is newer, it was produced in 2007-2010.
In the vehicle, at the request of the customer, the height of the internal space was increased, the main armament was replaced by a 35-mm Bushmaster III automatic cannon with an ammunition programmer, it also has more modern aiming devices as well as set of additional ceramic armor.
Swedish parliament seeks immediate decision on Gripen for Ukraine
The leader of the Swedish Centre Party, Muharrem Demirok, is pushing for an immediate decision on supplying Gripen fighter jets to Ukraine, Aftonbladet reported.
Demirok expects decisions regarding the aircraft supply from the Swedish Prime Minister as early as today. The Centre Party has long insisted on sending planes to Ukraine, even before Sweden's NATO accession, journalists reported.
The leader of the party also added that Saab Jas company openly stated that the company has a series of ready-made airframes, meaning it's possible to replace the planes that might be sent to Ukraine relatively quickly.
On February 16, the Swedish Minister of Defense, Pål Jonson, confirmed that he is willing to consider the possibility of transferring Gripen fighters to Ukraine after his country joins NATO.
Saab JAS 39 Gripen is a Swedish multi-role fourth-generation fighter jet developed in the late 1980s and adopted into service in 1996. Its maximum takeoff weight is 16.5 tons, and it has ten weapon hardpoints. Thanks to increased fuel capacity, the combat radius is extended to 1300 km. Gripen is recognized as the most economical fourth-generation fighter. The price of an aircraft ranges from $30 million to $60 million, depending on configuration and delivery terms. Gripen fighters are considered by the Armed Forces of Ukraine as one of the aircraft types, after American F-16s, that could strengthen the Ukrainian aviation component in a limited quantity.
Russia unveils AI-driven drone defence system
Russian propaganda agency RIA Novosti claims that Russia has developed a comprehensive drone defence system called Stupor, which can operate autonomously.
The Stupor drone defence and detection system was reportedly tested in northern Russia at 20 degrees below zero.
The developers said that it can detect and suppress drones using multiple methods. The company claims that the system incorporates artificial intelligence, allowing it to function without a human operator.
The system can allegedly detect targets at a distance of over 5 km, and intercept them within a 2 km radius, as reported by the developers.
Grumpy here — As with all things Russian “Propaganda” and “claims” are the operative words
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