UKRAINE WAR BRIEF DAILY DRAFT
For: 2023-12-12
Slava Ukraini! For the past six months I have provided a daily draft for the Ukraine War Brief Podcast collecting news from over 40 sources daily much of which ends up in the Ukraine War Written Brief. While this is going through a period of transition I will make this Draft available here for those who wish to keep up with events on a daily basis.
INSIDE UKRAINE
ALONG THE CONTACT LINE
UK Intel: Russia struggles with nighttime combat
The UK Ministry of Defence in its Intelligence update for Dec. 12 stated that Russian forces are “highly likely” continuing to struggle when fighting at night throughout the Ukraine conflict, according to a recent update by British intelligence.
Russia’s military seldom prepared for night fighting, instead staging “daylight events to impress visiting senior officers. Numerous reports from combatants have highlighted this trend since the start of the war. NVGs have frequently featured high in the lists of equipment Russian units request from their families and supporters.
There is also likely a cultural element to Russia’s problem: Russian military training has rarely emphasised night exercises. instead typically building towards set-piece, daylight events to impress visiting senior officers.
Conversely, the update indicates Ukrainian forces have often received provision of night vision devices from international partners. One Russian soldier is quoted as claiming, “Ukrainian forces ‘move mostly at night.'”
The Khortytsia operational-strategic group is responsible for the Kup’yans’k, Lyman, and Bakhmut axes, in the northeastern part of Ukraine.
Nothing to report
The Tavria operational-strategic group is responsible for the Avdiivka, Mar’inka, Shaktars’ke, and Zaporizhzhia axes, in the central-eastern and southeastern part of Ukraine.
Nothing to report
The Odesa operational-strategic group is responsible for Kherson, Qırım, (also known as Crimea) and the Black Sea
Nothing to report
TEMPORARILY OCCUPIED TERRITORIES
Russia Cannot Restore Passenger Rail Traffic on Temporarily Occupied Territories, However Military Depends on It
The restoration of the railways on the occupied territories will be a long and difficult task. Nearly ten years of occupation have left Luhansk’s railways in ruins. Tracks lie unusable, vital systems inoperable and passenger services completely suspended. The occupying administration, overwhelmed by the task, has admitted defeat, acknowledging its inability to restore the network. This collapse deals a major blow to russian logistics, heavily reliant on rail for troop and supply transport. The disrupted network presents a strategic opportunity for Ukrainian forces, hindering enemy operations and movement, the National Resistance Center reports.
Beyond its immediate impact, the crippled railway serves as a grim symbol of the occupation’s devastating legacy. The deliberate destruction of vital infrastructure highlights the disregard for the local population’s well-being. The loss of this critical connection severs vital links, hinders economic activity and impedes the delivery of essential goods.
The road to recovery will be long and arduous. Rebuilding the railway will require immense resources and time, further delaying the region’s reconstruction and compounding the suffering of its people.
THE HOME FRONT
58% of Ukrainians stand for continuing to fight Russia, even without Western help
According to a poll conducted by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) from 29 November to 9 December Over half of Ukrainians believe that, given a significant reduction in aid from the West, Ukraine must persist in defending itself from Russian aggression, even if it involves the risk of losing new territories.
The majority of respondents - 58% - are now inclined to believe that even if Western aid is drastically curtailed, it is still worth pursuing the war effort to exert pressure on the Russian occupying forces, taking into account the risks to the territories Ukraine presently controls.
However, every third respondent (32%) believes it is better to agree to cessation of hostilities under conditions of genuine security guarantees from the West, including if the liberation of the Russian-occupied territories is dragged out indefinitely.
The remaining 10% failed to make up their minds.
Ukraine's Security Service detains FSB informant who worked through intermediary from Moscow-linked church
The Security Service of Ukraine (SSU) reports it has detained a female FSB agent in Donetsk Oblast who had been working for the Russians through an intermediary from the Ukrainian Orthodox Church of the Moscow Patriarchate (UOC-MP). The woman had been adjusting Russian attacks on Ukraine's Defence Forces in the oblast.
The SSU states The woman leaked geolocations of Armed Forces units near Kramatorsk.Her intermediary was the former parish priest of a UOC-MP church in Donetsk Oblast, who had fled to the aggressor country at the beginning of the Russian full-scale invasion and started working for the FSB.
The SSU established that the woman was previously an assistant to the priest and had kept in touch with him after he escaped to Russia. Early this year, the enemy informer travelled to the Russian Federation through EU countries to establish sabotage and reconnaissance activities
THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION / OCCUPIED BELARUS
Russian army forms new Storm Z units from officers
Russian Colonel General Mikhail Teplinsky, who commands the Dnepr group, has ordered the creation of Storm Z Penal assault units from officers, as was the case a hundred years ago, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has stated.
“These are some kind of attack battalions, modelled on the White Guard units of the 1920s. The main criteria for officers in assault units are the inability to command subordinates, personal indiscipline and poor motivation."
— Andrii Kovalov, Spokesman for the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine
Defence Intelligence of Ukraine (DIU) cyber units hacked Russian Tax Service: Entire database and its backups destroyed
The cyber units of the Defense Intelligence of Ukraine conducted a successful operation, attacking the Russian tax system. The DIU reports
"During the special operation, military intelligence officers managed to penetrate one of the well-protected key central servers of the Federal Tax Service (FTS of RF), and then more than 2,300 of its regional servers throughout Russia, as well as in the temporarily occupied Crimea,"
— DIU Press Service
Thus, as a result of the cyberattack, all servers received malware. At the same time, the Russian IT company Office.ed-it.ru, which served the Federal Tax Service of the Russian Federation, was attacked in the same way.
As a result of two cyberattacks, the configuration files that have been ensuring the functioning of the extensive tax system of the Russian Federation for years were completely eliminated - the entire database and its backup copies were destroyed.
NEWS WORLDWIDE
European lawmakers unite in plea to Congress for US military support to Ukraine
Reuters reports more than a hundred senior European lawmakers will send a joint letter to their counterparts in the United States on Tuesday, pleading for Congress to unlock further military aid to Ukraine at a time U.S. lawmakers have struggled for a deal.
The open letter, reviewed by Reuters, was signed by lawmakers from at least 17 countries including France, Germany, Italy, Poland and Ireland, and is a sign of mounting concerns in Europe about the continuity of U.S. support to Ukraine.
It also comes just as Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskiy flies to Washington to make his case, ahead of a tight deadline for Congress, which is scheduled to go into recess for the year by Friday.
"A Putin victory would embolden our enemies around the world: they are watching and hoping we grow tired. Ukrainians are fighting so we don't have to,"
— Quote from European Lawmakers letter to Congress
Zelenskyy meets with leaders of US defence industry
President Zelensky met with US defence industry leaders during his US visit, focusing on a European defence hub in Ukraine, military production, and investment from American partners.
“I had an important and fruitful meeting with leaders of US defence companies. I am grateful to all the workers, engineers, all those who work at American defence companies and partners who produce weapons that help safeguard Ukrainians and help our army defend the country. These are the people who have done a lot for Ukraine,”
— Volodymyr Zelenskyy, President of Ukraine
Volodymyr Zelenskyy discussed the concept of creating a European defence hub, emphasising Ukraine as the ideal location due to its extensive combat experience. He pledged Ukraine’s commitment to expeditiously make essential decisions, streamline processes, and initiate procurement. The President stressed the urgency, stating,
"Historic, not to say epic": Ukrainian Foreign Minister on EU foreign ministers meeting
Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba has spoken about his participation in a meeting of EU foreign ministers in Brussels on Monday, announcing "important" decisions this week.
"It was a historic, not to say epic, meeting of the EU foreign ministers council.The last time I remember such a frank conversation in this format was in the first days of the full-scale invasion, when we discussed disconnecting Russian banks from SWIFT. At the end of the week, we will have important decisions at the European Council summit. Preparations are in full swing, and new elements are being added."
— Dmytro Kuleba, Ukrainian Foreign Minister
Kuleba noted that he had discussed the outcome of the meeting with top EU diplomat Josep Borrell and received confirmation that on Tuesday, 12 December, the European Commission would present a draft decision on the use of revenues from frozen Russian assets for Ukraine's needs.
Newly elected Polish PM says his government will demand total mobilisation of West to help Ukraine
Polish news organisation Onet citing Donald Tusk during his speech in the Sejm, where he presented the programme of actions and the composition of the new government reported that newly elected Prime Minister of Poland, Donald Tusk, said that his government will demand total mobilisation of the West to help Ukraine.
"I can no longer listen to politicians who talk about being tired of the situation [war] in Ukraine. They are telling [Ukrainian] President Zelenskyy that they are tired of the situation… we must remember what the war is about. That Ukrainians are fighting for something extremely important, that their battle began on the Maidan, that they are fighting to join the community of the Western world. They want Ukraine to be a democratic, legal state, like Western countries. And they are fighting for it now,”
— Donald Tusk, new Prime Minister of Poland
The Prime Minister also announced that in a few dozen hours, he is leaving for Brussels, hoping to convince the allies to protect democratic values and Ukraine from Russian aggression.
Zelenskyy makes a powerful 90 minute speech to US Senate
US Senators on both sides praised President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s impassioned speech to the Senate on Dec. 12. He told senators that he is counting on US support to come through for his nation. Zelenskyy avoided any mention of the US border issue that has stalled Ukraine aid talks.
Statements made by Republican senators after the meeting however showed that their position had not shifted.
Democratic Senators praise Zelenskyy’s “very powerful” speech and vowed to continue the fight.
“If Ukraine falls, it will be a historic and colossal tragedy. If Russia is victorious, future generations will remember this as a moment of shame for the west, for the United States, and for those in the Senate who sought to block it.”
— Chuck Schumer, Senate Majority Leader
MILITARY & TECH
Ukrainian Armed Forces received about 30 Bohdana ACS and are developing a towed version of this howitzer
About 30 2S22 Bohdana self-propelled howitzers have already been assembled for the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Economichna Pravda reported on this with reference to its own sources in the Armed Forces. According to them, Ukraine is also developing a towed version of this 155-mm artillery system.
As planned, the gun barrel is manufactured by the Kramatorsk Heavy Duty Machine Tool Building Plant (PJSC “KZTS”). According to the developers, a total of 25 companies and 400 people are involved in the production of the Bohdana. Some critical components are produced at their own sites abroad. They plan to return the plants to Ukraine as soon as the opportunity arises. Also, some processes have been decentralised to protect against missile attacks.
Since its inception the Bohdana has been produced on several different chassis, initially the prototype Ukrainian KrAZ chassis but that company went bankrupt. Then in the initial production models were produced using the Belarusian MAZ chassis. The current production model is produced on the Czech Tatra T815-7 chassis.
In early December, President Volodymyr Zelensky announced that Ukraine had reached the production rate of six 2S22 Bohdana self-propelled howitzers per month.
Almost 600,000 soldiers of various branches of the army are fighting in the Ground Forces.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has revealed the current troop strength of the country's Ground Forces as he marked their professional holiday.
"Our people are grateful to many for the liberation of our land, cities and villages, for the opportunity to be proud of the power of the Ukrainian army. We remember many today when we honour Ukrainian heroes who gave their lives for the sake of our state and people,"
— Volodymyr Zelenskyy, President of Ukraine
President Zelenskyy stated that Putin has not won a single operation this year, and Ukraine maintains important bridgeheads on several front lines and is preparing for the next steps.
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