Ukraine Gets The Best Christmas Present
Grumpy's Breaking News From Ukraine
Firstly, Merry Christmas to everyone
As you are probably aware Russia just got the nastiest of surprises and Ukraine the best of Christmas presents.
Between Dec. 22 - 24 Ukraine shot down 4 Russian SU-34s and one SU-30. Three over occupied Kherson, one over the Black Sea and one well (80km) behind the front lines in the Mariupol area.
You would be wise to ask why is Ukraine suddenly shooting down all these Russian aircraft? I can answer that question for you in one word:
AWACS
In late October a Royal Australian Air Force (RAAF) E-7A Wedgetail arrived at Ramstein Air Base in Germany for a six-month deployment to support Ukraine in its ongoing war.
The aircraft will be a part of Ukraine’s early-warning threat detection protocols to combat delays in the region’s humanitarian and military assistance.
The E-7A will integrate with allies, including the US, to provide “multi-layered protections” in Ukraine.
“Our AWACS can detect aircraft and missiles hundreds of kilometres away, making them a key early warning capability for NATO.”
— NATO Spokesperson Dylan White
Staff for the aircraft includes up to 100 crew and support personnel.
On Dec.25 The Eurasian Times released an article regarding the Dec. 22 incident stating that
On December 22, 2023, around noon, Ukrainian sources claimed to have shot down three Russian Aerospace Forces (RuAF) Su-34 frontline bombers operating in the Chaplinka area of occupied Ukraine. It’s speculated that the aircraft were part of an air group attacking the Ukrainian bridgehead on the left bank of the Dnieper River in Krynky, Kherson.
The VVS (Russian Air Force) has been using Su-34 bombers in the area to drop bombs kitted with UMPC glide and precision guidance modules. Typically, the fighters drop the bombs from 7000 m altitude, around 50 km behind the frontline. Following the drop, they roll over and escape in a steep dive to avoid being targeted by Ukrainian air defense (AD) systems.
The usually reliable Russian FighterBomber TC telegram channel acknowledged the Russian loss without specifying the number of aircraft lost. The channel credited Western-supplied Ukrainian Patriot AD for the shootdown.
Both Ukrainian and Russian social media (SM) channels are suggesting that the Patriot battery in play received targeting information from a Western AWACS.
Typically, the pilot of a Su-34 equipped with self-protection pods would be alerted when it’s first painted by an AN/MPQ-65 radar from Patriot or one of the similar systems Ukraine employs. The pilot would immediately launch a Kh-31P to home in on the emissions and destroy the radar. Most likely, the standard operating procedure would call for the group to abort the mission.
However for Ukraine, an alternative and more effective approach would be to not switch on the AN/MPQ-65 radar but instead cue the Patriot’s MFR using targeting information obtained from a data-linked AWACS. In such a case, attacking aircraft pilots would be alerted only to the presence of the AWACS, not the Patriot battery.
Said AWACS is located in NATO airspace hundreds of miles away immune from Russian attack.
If an AWACS was in play, then there is the possibility that the VVS SOPs for attack missions don’t mandate an abort in case of AWACS painting based on the assumption that the aircraft is being tracked but not targeted.
There is also the possibility that the Russian fighters were not able to detect the painting by the AWACS in play.
It was recently reported that Australia sent an E-7A Wedgetail early warning aircraft to Germany as “support for Ukraine.” RuAF likely has little experience operating against the E-7A.
The E-3 is equipped with the AN/APY-1 and AN/APY-2 radar systems, which are mechanically rotating radar systems.
The E-7A features the Multi-Role Electronically Scanned Array (MESA) radar, a fixed electronically scanned radar that provides increased agility and responsiveness compared to a mechanically rotating radar.
The E-7A radar, like any other AESA radar, can be operated in LPI mode. Once again, it’s conceivable that the LPI mode of the radar was tweaked to evade detection by Khibini pods.
So IF An E7A painting a Russian target was not detected, it could pass of the information to the closest Patriot system which would not have to turn on its radar and would instead target the Russian aircraft using MFR.
In that case the Russian pilots would have no advanced warning until they visually confirm the incoming missiles.
It is likely that the Su-34 pilots didn’t get a visual indication of the missile launch, possibly due to the existence of cloud cover. In which case they knew nothing until they were dead.
One of the worst kept secrets in the world is that Patriot targets an aircraft’s cockpit directly. Despite Russian claims to the contrary no targeted aircraft’s pilot has ever survived a direct hit by a Patriot missile.
On Dec. 24 the process was repeated again, but this time it was an SU-30 over the Black Sea that reputedly attempting to target a Patriot with an antiradiation missile. The Ukrainian Air Force shot it down.
Later on Dec. 24 an SU-34 was shot down in the Mariupol area. which could be as much as 80 KM behind the front line.
In closing Ukraine has received the best Christmas present possible and the Russian VVS just lost their ability to operate anywhere Ukrainian airspace, occupied or not.
Finally to the Royal Australian Air Force — Thanks Cobber!
We will return with regular daily drafts on Dec. 27 unless more breaking news develops.