THE RUSSO-UKRAINE WAR BRIEF
Day 1174 of the full scale invasion
Slava Ukraini! In early 2022 I began a Telegram channel aggregating news from a number of sources daily on the war in Ukraine. In June 2023 I began providing a daily draft for the Ukraine War Brief Podcast collecting news from over 70 sources daily, which formed the basis of the script. While the Podcast no longer exists I have continued to make this Brief available for my followers here on Substack for those who wish to keep up with the news from the war.
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ALONG THE CONTACT LINE
GSAFU Morning Report
For: May 12, 2025
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in its Operational Information update at 08:00 on May 12 stated that day 1174 of the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation against Ukraine had begun.
The situation on the line of combat remains tense in some sectors. Ukrainian defenders continue to actively counteract the Russian aggressor, causing them significant losses in personnel, equipment and technology. Exhausting the enemy along the entire front line and continuing to disrupt the plans of Russian occupiers to advance deeper into the territory of Ukraine.
During the past two days, 316 combat engagements took place.
Over the past 48 hours, the enemy carried out 128 air strikes, used 5,913 attack drones and fired approximately 7,400 artillery shells across the positions of Ukrainian forces and civilians.
Air Force Daily Report
60 ENEMY UAVS SHOT DOWN, 41 SIMULATOR UAVS FAILED TO REACH THEIR TARGETS (LOCATIONALLY LOST)
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On the night of May 11 (from 02:00 on May 11), the enemy attacked with 108 Shahed attack UAVs and simulator drones of various types from the following directions: Bryansk, Shatalovo, Millerovo, Primorsko-Akhtarsk - Russian Federation, Primorsko - TOT of Zaporizhia region, Gvardiyske - TOT of Crimea.
The air attack was repelled by aviation, anti-aircraft missile troops, electronic warfare units, and mobile fire groups of the Defense Forces of Ukraine.
As of 09:30, it has been confirmed that 60 Shahed attack UAVs (and other types of drones) have been shot down in the east, north, south, and center of the country.
41 enemy drone simulators — lost in location (without negative consequences).
As a result of the enemy attack, the Sumy region suffered.
55 ENEMY UAVS SHOT DOWN, 30 SIMULATOR UAVS FAILED TO REACH THEIR TARGETS (LOCATIONALLY LOST)
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On the night of May 12 (from 11:00 p.m. on May 11), the enemy attacked with 108 Shahed attack UAVs and simulator drones of various types from the following directions: Bryansk, Orel, Shatalovo, Millerovo, Primorsko-Akhtarsk - Russia, Chauda - Crimea.
The air attack was repelled by aviation, anti-aircraft missile troops, electronic warfare units, and mobile fire groups of the Defense Forces of Ukraine.
As of 08:30, it has been confirmed that 55 Shahed attack UAVs (and other types of drones) have been shot down in the east, north, south, and center of the country.
30 enemy drone simulators were lost in location (without negative consequences).
As a result of the enemy attack, the Odessa, Mykolaiv, Donetsk, and Zhytomyr regions suffered.
Combat Operations in the Russian Federation
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a US based think tank, in its May 11 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment reported that:
Sumy - Kursk Border: Ukrainian forces recently advanced in Kursk Oblast.
Geolocated footage published on May 10 indicates that Ukrainian forces recently advanced south of Tetkino (southwest of Glushkovo).
The Khortytsia operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the northeastern part of Ukraine. )
Kharkiv Sector: Russian forces recently advanced northeast of Kharkiv City.
Geolocated footage published on May 10 indicates that Russian forces recently advanced in northern Vovchansk (northeast of Kharkiv City).
Toretsk Sector: Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the Toretsk direction.
Assessed Ukrainian advances: Geolocated footage published on May 10 indicates that Ukrainian forces recently advanced north of Druzhba (northeast of Toretsk).
The Tavria operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the central-eastern and southeastern part of Ukraine.)
Novopavlivka Sector: Russian forces recently advanced in the Novopavlivka direction.
Geolocated footage published on May 11 indicates that Russian forces recently advanced south and west of Novooleksandrivka (northeast of Novopavlivka) and likely seized the settlement during a roughly platoon-sized mechanized assault.
The Odesa operational-strategic group
(Responsible for Kherson, Qırım, (also known as Crimea) and the Black Sea.)
Dnipro Sector: Russian forces conducted limited offensive operations in the Kherson direction on May 11 but did not advance.
Ukrainian Southern Defense Forces Spokesperson Colonel Vladyslav Voloshyn stated on May 11 that Russian forces are trying to land small infantry groups on the islands in the Dnipro River Delta to conduct reconnaissance on Ukrainian positions.
TEMPORARILY OCCUPIED TERRITORIES
Nothing major to report.
THE HOME FRONT
Russia launches another massive drone attack on Ukraine on May 11.
Russia launched an overnight drone attack across Ukraine early on May 11, injuring one person in Kyiv Oblast and damaging civilian infrastructure in several regions, according to Ukrainian officials.
The assault began around 2 a.m. on May 11, with Russian forces deploying 108 Shahed-type attack drones and decoy UAVs from multiple directions, Ukraine’s Air Force said.
In Kyiv Oblast, a 70-year-old man in Brovary District suffered an acute stress reaction during the attack and is receiving medical care, according to regional authorities. A summer house was damaged in the strike, and five private homes were hit in the Obukhiv District, which lies south of the capital, Kyiv. No critical infrastructure was affected.
In Sumy Oblast, Russian forces carried out more than 100 strikes on 31 settlements across 14 communities over the past day. The attacks included nearly 10 guided aerial bombs, 30 FPV drone assaults, approximately 30 grenade drops from drones, and over 70 multiple-launch rocket system explosions, regional officials reported. Additionally, Russian helicopters launched 10 rockets.
While there were no fatalities or injuries reported in Sumy, several civilian structures were damaged or destroyed, including non-residential buildings and private homes.
The attack comes as Russia invited Ukraine to engage in direct talks in Istanbul beginning May 15. Russian President Vladimir Putin rejected a ceasefire proposal, saying, "Russia is ready for negotiations without any preconditions."
Putin unilaterally declared a temporary ceasefire in honor of Victory Day — which Russia observes on May 9 — from midnight May 8 until midnight on May 11. Despite the three-day truce, Russian attacks against Ukrainian civilians and combat operations on the front line continued.
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and European leaders on May 10 demanded that Russia agree to an unconditional 30-day ceasefire starting on May 12. The proposal is backed by U.S. President Donald Trump. If Russia refuses the proposal, Europe and the U.S. are threatening to respond with increased sanctions.
Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said earlier that Russia needs to "think about" the ceasefire proposal and is "resistant to any kinds of pressure."
Russian attacks injure 22 in Ukraine over past 24 hours
Russian attacks injured at least 22 people in Ukraine over the past 24 hours,the Kyiv Independent reported citing regional authorities on May 12.
This includes at least seven people injured in drone attacks overnight on May 12, a date from which Kyiv and its allies put forward a demand for a 30-day unconditional truce, a step that Moscow continues to reject.
Regions affected by the overnight assault included Odesa, Mykolaiv, Donetsk, and Zhytomyr oblasts, according to Ukraine’s military.
In Donetsk Oblast, five civilians were injured on May 11 in separate attacks on four towns, Governor Vadym Filashkin said.
The state railway company, Ukrainian Railways, confirmed that a Russian drone also attacked a civilian freight train in Donetsk Oblast on May 12, injuring the locomotive driver with shrapnel. He was hospitalized and is in stable condition. According to the statement, the attack failed to halt railway traffic.
In Odesa Oblast, one person was injured as Russian drones struck civilian infrastructure. The attack damaged residential buildings, an administrative office, and a fire station, according to Governor Oleh Kiper.
In Kherson Oblast, Russian forces attacked over 30 settlements with drones, artillery, and air strikes, Governor Oleksandr Prokudin reported. The strikes targeted critical and civilian infrastructure, damaging five apartment buildings, nine houses, a cellular tower, and civilian vehicles. Five civilians were injured.
In Kharkiv Oblast, eight communities came under fire over the past 24 hours. Russia used KAB bombs and first-person-view (FPV) drones to attack multiple districts. Five people were injured. Civilian infrastructure, houses, garages, and cars suffered damage, according to Governor Oleh Syniehubov.
In Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, Russian troops attacked with a guided aerial bomb, injuring two men. One of them is in critical condition and receiving urgent medical care, according to Governor Serhii Lysak. Houses and cars were damaged in the attack.
In Sumy Oblast, nearly 90 Russian strikes were recorded in the region across 33 settlements in 12 communities, injuring one civilian, regional authorities reported.
In Zaporizhzhia Oblast, Russian forces launched 494 attacks on 16 settlements, including six air strikes, over 300 drone attacks, and numerous artillery attacks. Two people were injured, according to the local administration.
Despite appeals from Kyiv and its partners for a truce, the Kremlin insists on negotiations without an unconditional ceasefire. In a press conference in the early hours of May 11, Russian President Vladimir Putin invited Ukraine to restart talks, which, according to Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov, Russia wishes to be based on the terms of the 2022 Istanbul discussions and the "current situation on the battlefield."
President Volodymyr Zelensky announced his readiness to meet Putin in Turkey on May 15, reiterating Ukraine’s proposal for a complete and unconditional ceasefire starting May 12. The Kremlin has not responded to Zelensky's proposal for a face-to-face meeting of the two leaders.
RUSSIAN WORLD
Schools Across Russia and Occupied Ukraine Hold Insane Anti-Terrorism Drills.
Schools across Russia and occupied parts of Ukraine on Tuesday began anti-terrorism drills simulating hostage crises and drone strikes. According to media reports, hundreds of institutions, including kindergartens, secondary schools, technical colleges and children’s camps, are taking part in the two-day exercises, the Moscow Times reports.
Photos circulated online showed adults armed with mock assault rifles and pistols, sometimes pointing the weapons at teachers and students. In some of the photos, children could be seen huddled behind barricades hastily assembled from classroom desks
Russia’s Education Ministry announced the drills on Monday as a joint effort with the Emergency Situations Ministry, the Interior Ministry and the National Guard.
“Every teacher, counselor, lifeguard and police officer must be prepared to minimize risks, prevent panic and save lives in a critical moment,” Emergency Situations Minister Alexander Kurenkov said.
RELATED INTERNATIONAL NEWS
Zelenskyy tells Putin to come to Turkey if he wants talks, after Trump intervention.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he was ready to meet Vladimir Putin in Turkey on Thursday after U.S. President Donald Trump told him publicly to immediately accept the Kremlin leader's proposal of direct talks, Reuters reports.
Zelenskyy's suggestion of a meeting with Putin capped a dramatic 48 hours in which European leaders joined Zelenskyy in demanding a 30-day ceasefire from Monday, only for Putin to make a counter-proposal to instead hold the first direct Ukraine-Russia talks since the early months of the 2022 invasion.
It was far from clear, however, that Putin meant he would attend in person. Putin and Zelenskyy have not met since December 2019 and make no secret of their contempt for each other.
"I will be waiting for Putin in Türkiye on Thursday. Personally," Zelenskyy wrote on social media. "I hope that this time the Russians will not look for excuses."
On Telegram, his chief of staff, Andriy Yermak, added: "What about Putin? Is he afraid? We'll see."
The Ukrainian leader had responded guardedly earlier on Sunday after the Russian president, in a night-time televised statement that coincided with prime time in the U.S., proposed direct talks in Istanbul next Thursday, May 15.
Putin's suggestion came hours after major European powers demanded on Saturday in Kyiv that he agree to an unconditional 30-day ceasefire or face "massive" new sanctions, a position that Trump's Ukraine envoy Keith Kellogg endorsed.
Zelenskyy too had said Ukraine was ready for talks, if Moscow agreed to the 30-day ceasefire.
Yet Trump, who has the power to continue or sever Washington's crucial supply of arms to Ukraine, took a different line.
"President Putin of Russia doesn’t want to have a Cease Fire Agreement with Ukraine, but rather wants to meet on Thursday, in Turkey, to negotiate a possible end to the BLOODBATH. Ukraine should agree to this, IMMEDIATELY," Trump wrote on Truth Social.
"At least they will be able to determine whether or not a deal is possible, and if it is not, European leaders, and the U.S., will know where everything stands, and can proceed accordingly!"
Germany says Russia has hours to abide by truce or face sanctions.
European countries will start preparing new sanctions on Russia unless the Kremlin by the end of Monday starts abiding by a 30-day ceasefire in its war with Ukraine, Germany's government announced, Reuters reports
Ukraine's military said Russia had conducted dozens of attacks along the front in eastern Ukraine on Monday as well as an overnight assault using more than 100 drones, despite the ceasefire proposal by Europe and Kyiv.
"The clock is ticking," a German government spokesperson said at a news conference in Berlin. "We still have 12 hours until the end of the day, and if the ceasefire is not in place by then, the European side will (set in motion) preparations for sanctions," the spokesperson said.
The leaders of four major European powers travelled to Kyiv on Saturday and demanded an unconditional 30-day ceasefire from Monday. Russian President Vladimir Putin, implicitly rejecting the offer, instead proposed direct Russia-Ukraine talks in Istanbul that he said could potentially lead to a ceasefire.
In a fresh twist in the stop-start peace talks process, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said he would travel in person to Istanbul where, he said, he would be waiting to meet Putin.
The Kremlin has not responded to that latest proposal. Putin and Zelenskiy have not met since December 2019 - over two years before Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine - and make no secret of their contempt for each other.
The Ukrainian air force said Ukraine came under attack overnight from 108 long-range combat drones starting from 11 p.m. (2000 GMT), an hour before the proposed ceasefire was due to kick in. Attacks of this kind unfold over the course of hours as drones fly much slower than missiles.
Russian troops conducted dozens of assaults on the eastern front line in Ukraine on Monday after the start of the proposed truce, a Ukrainian military spokesman said.
The intensity of the fighting was at the same level it would be if there were no ceasefire, said Viktor Trehubov, a spokesperson for the military on Ukraine's eastern front.
Russia and Ukraine are both trying to show U.S. President Donald Trump that they are working towards his objective of reaching a rapid peace in Ukraine, while trying to make the other look like the spoiler to his efforts.
Kyiv is desperate to unlock more of the U.S. military backing it received from Trump's predecessor, Joe Biden. Moscow senses an opportunity to get relief from a barrage of economic sanctions and engage with the world's biggest economy.
Europe meanwhile is doing its best to preserve good relations with Trump despite his imposition of tariffs, hoping it can persuade him to swing more forcefully behind Ukraine's cause, which they see as central to the continent's security. A group of European Union foreign ministers and EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas were set to hold talks in London on Monday.
Poland closing Russian consulate in Krakow after blaming Moscow for Warsaw mall arson.
Poland has revoked a permission for Russia to operate a consulate in Krakow over evidence that Russian intelligence services orchestrated an arson attack in Warsaw last year, the Kyiv Independent reported citing an announcement from Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski on May 12.
Previously, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk accused the Russian intelligence services of orchestrating a May 2024 arson attack on the Marywilska shopping centre in Warsaw.
"In view of evidence that it was the Russian intelligence services that carried out the reprehensible sabotage act against the shopping center at Marywilska Street, I have decided to withdraw permission for the operation of the Russian consulate in Krakow," Sikorski wrote on social media.
Russian Ambassador Sergei Andreev was summoned to Poland’s Foreign Ministry on May 12 to receive a diplomatic note formally withdrawing consent for the operation of Russia’s consulate in Krakow, Polish outlet RMF 24 reported.
Polish Deputy Foreign Minister Henryka Moscicka-Dendys reportedly said Russia will be given a deadline, typically at least 30 days, to shut down the post, while its consulate in Gdansk will remain open.
On May 12, 2024, a massive fire destroyed a shopping center in Warsaw, which housed approximately 1,400 stores.
Polish Justice Minister Adam Bodnar and Interior Minister Tomasz Siemoniak also confirmed Moscow’s role in the attack, citing detailed intelligence. Some of the perpetrators have already been detained.
"We have in-depth knowledge of the order and course of the arson and the way in which the perpetrators documented it. Their actions were organized and directed by an identified person staying in the Russian Federation," the ministers said, according to Reuters.
The Russian Foreign Ministry, through spokeswoman Maria Zakharova, condemned Warsaw’s move and warned that Russia "will respond."
Western intelligence officials have warned about increasing Russian sabotage operations across Europe. Arson attacks have previously targeted other EU countries, raising suspicions of a coordinated Russian effort to destabilize the countries that support Ukraine against Russian aggression.
Polish authorities are cooperating with Lithuania, where the detained suspects allegedly carried out additional sabotage attacks.
Lithuanian authorities previously said they suspect Russia's intelligence services of orchestrating arson attacks on an IKEA warehouse in Vilnius, and had also linked Russia to the Warsaw shopping center attack.
The attack on the Ikea warehouse caused an estimated 500,000 euros ($545,000) in damage.
Officials did not provide additional details about the investigation into the fire or the suspects detained.
A number of suspected spy networks, allegedly run by Minsk and Moscow, have been uncovered in Poland over the past years.
Zelenskyy invites Pope Leo XIV to Ukraine in their first phone call.
"I invited His Holiness to make an apostolic visit to Ukraine. Such a visit would bring real hope to all believers and to all our people," Zelenskyy said, adding that the two leaders plan to hold an in-person meeting in the near future, the Kyiv Independent reported.
Ukraine's head of state said he had thanked the pontiff for his support for Ukraine and its people and discussed efforts to bring back Ukrainian children abducted by Russia.
"Ukraine counts on the Vatican's assistance in bringing them home to their families," Zelenskyy noted. Moscow has forcibly displaced over 19,500 Ukrainian children, deporting them to Russia, Belarus, or other occupied territories.
Pope Leo XIV, formerly Cardinal Robert Prevost, was elected as head of the Catholic Church in the conclave on May 8 after the death of his predecessor, Pope Francis.
In his first Sunday address on May 11, Pope Leo XIV called for an "authentic and lasting peace" in Ukraine, adding that he carries in his heart the "suffering of the beloved people of Ukraine."
Previously, while serving as Bishop of Chiclayo in Peru, Leo XIV spoke out against Russia's continued war against Ukraine. In a 2022 interview with Peruvian news outlet Semanario Expresion, he condemned Russia's war against Ukraine, characterizing it as "a true invasion, imperialist in nature, where Russia seeks to conquer territory for reasons of power."
Zelenskyy said he had informed the pope about Kyiv and its partners' agreement on an unconditional 30-day ceasefire and affirmed Ukraine's readiness for peace talks in any format.
MILITARY & TECH
US approves transfer of long-range missiles, Patriots from Germany to Ukraine.
The United States has approved the transfer of 125 long-range artillery rockets and 100 Patriot air defense missiles from Germany to Ukraine, the New York Times (NYT) reported on May 10.
The American-made weapons cannot be exported, even by a country that owns them, without approval from the U.S. government.
On Friday, a congressional official said that the United States had approved Germany’s transfer of 125 long-range artillery rockets and 100 Patriot air-defense missiles to Ukraine. The critically needed weapons are made in the United States and cannot be exported — even if another country owns them — without American government approval.
While European leaders and investors appear willing to pump more money into weapons production, industry executives and experts predict it will take a decade to get assembly lines up to speed.
“Europe is trying to replace the assistance that we lost from the United States, but unfortunately, they don’t have the capacity to do this,” Mr. Chernev said. “It takes time between the decision and the real assistance.”
Though Mr. Trump has shown more alignment with Ukraine in recent days, including on Thursday threatening sanctions on Russia if it declined to agree to an extended cease-fire, his broader dismissiveness toward 80 years of U.S. protections for Europe has prompted allied nations there to rethink their security.
Allies fear that Mr. Trump will pull Russian deterrents, like U.S. troops and the American nuclear umbrella, out of Europe. Focusing on their own protection eats into what other European countries might have given to Ukraine.
“They are hitting the dual problem of having to rearm themselves and supply Ukraine, and industrial capacity isn’t big enough to do both,” said Matthew Savill, director of military sciences at the Royal United Services Institute, an analytical group affiliated with the British military.
To be sure, the flow of weapons to Ukraine from Europe will continue even if American deliveries dry up. Germany recently sent Ukraine more than 60 mine-resistant armored vehicles, about 50,000 artillery rounds and air-defense ammunition, including an IRIS-T interceptor that can take down cruise missiles. Some drones that Britain and Norway bought, announced last month as part of a $600 million security package, have since arrived in Ukraine. Estonia is sending 10,000 artillery shells.
But many of the European military assistance pledged last month at NATO headquarters amounted to commitments for producing or procuring weapons in the years to come, not immediately. Ukraine may need American weapons for some time.
Already, Ukraine is churning out millions of drones each year, including cheap kamikazes to save its supply of artillery shells, Mr. Savill said. Similarly, a Western intelligence official who closely monitors the war said Ukraine’s forces have gotten better at rationing its Patriot air-defense missiles, by using less costly interceptors to take out smaller threats.
“They would like more cruise missiles and more ballistic missiles and a variety of other weapons,” Mr. Savill said, “but for the time being, they’re going to have to fill the gap.”
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