THE RUSSO-UKRAINE WAR BRIEF
For: 2024-12-13
Slava Ukraini! In early 2022 I began a Telegram channel aggregating news from a number of sources daily on the war in Ukraine. In June 2023 I began providing a daily draft for the Ukraine War Brief Podcast collecting news from over 70 sources daily, which formed the basis of the script. While the Podcast no longer exists I have continued to make this Brief available for my followers here on Substack for those who wish to keep up with the news from the war.
All the latest news on the Russo-Ukraine War 6 days per week
ALONG THE CONTACT LINE
GSAFU Morning Report
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in its Operational Information update at 22:00 on dec 12 stated that day 1024 of the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation against Ukraine was about to begin.
During the past day, 190 combat engagements took place. Over the past 24 hours, the enemy carried out 31 air strikes, 568 drone strikes and 3,194 artillery strikes across the positions of Ukrainian forces.
At the same time, Ukrainian soldiers continue to inflict losses in manpower and equipment on the occupying troops, exhausting the enemy along the entire front line and continue to disrupt the plans of Russian occupiers to advance deeper into the territory of Ukraine.
Air Force Daily Report
81 MISSILES AND 80 ENEMY UAVS WERE SHOT DOWN, ANOTHER 105 UAVS FAILED TO REACH THEIR TARGETS (Lost in Location)
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From 2:00 p.m. on December 12 to 10:00 a.m. on December 13, 2024, the enemy carried out a combined air attack on Ukraine with missiles of various types and strike drones.
In total, the Air Force radio-technical troops detected 287 enemy air attack vehicles during this period — 94 missiles and 193 UAVs, namely:
- 4 Kh-47M2 Kinzhal aeroballistic missiles from MiG-31K fighters, launch area - Tambov region;
- 2 Iskander-M ballistic missiles, launch area – Bryansk region, TOT of Crimea;
- 1 KN-23 ballistic missile, launch area – Bryansk region;
- 55 Kh-101, Kh-55SM cruise missiles from Tu-95MS strategic bombers, launch area — Volgograd Region;
- 24 Caliber cruise missiles, launch area: Black Sea;
- 7 Iskander-K cruise missiles, launch area – Voronezh, Rostov region;
- 1 Kh-59/Kh-69 guided aircraft missile, launch area: airspace over the TOT of the Luhansk region;
- 193 attack UAVs of the “Shahed” type and drones of an unidentified type from the Kursk, Primorsko-Akhtarsk, Orel, Bryansk, Millerovo regions – Russia.
The air attack was repelled by anti-aircraft missile troops, aviation, electronic warfare units, mobile fire groups of the Air Force and the Defense Forces of Ukraine. Among them, F-16s effectively worked out!
As of 11:30, the following have been confirmed to have been shot down:
- 80 Kh-101/Kh-55SM/Caliber/Iskander-K cruise missiles;
- 1 Iskander-M ballistic missile;
- 80 Shahed attack UAVs and unmanned aerial vehicles of unknown type. In addition, 105 enemy UAVs did not reach their targets (lost their location) due to active countermeasures by the Defense Forces, five returned to Russia, and one more returned to Belarus.
Once again, the enemy's missile and drone strike was mainly directed at Ukraine's energy facilities.
The Russian Border Incursion
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a US based think tank, in its Dec 12 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment reported that Russian forces recently advanced in the main Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast amid continued fighting in the area on Dec 12. Geolocated footage published on Dec 11 indicates that Russian forces recently advanced up to the east bank of the Psel River northwest of Plekhovo and southeast of Kurilovka (both south of Sudzha) and recaptured Plekhovo.
The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed on Dec12 that Russian forces also recaptured Darino and Novoivanovka (both southeast of Korenevo), and Russian milbloggers claimed that elements of the Russian 51st Airborne (VDV) Regiment (106th VDV Division) were responsible for the seizure of Darino.
Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces also advanced east of Novoivanovka, in the direction of Sverdlikovo (northwest of Sudzha), toward forested areas near Malaya Loknya (north of Sudzha) and Martynovka (northeast of Sudzha), and south of Guevo (south of Sudzha). ISW has not observed confirmation of these claims, however.
A Russian milblogger claimed the Russian forces’ slow rate of advance towards Guevo indicates that Russian forces will likely also struggle to recapture Sudzha quickly.
Russian forces continued offensive operations near Martynovka and in forest belts near Sverdlikovo and Novoivanovka on Dec 12 Elem 51st VDV Regiment are reportedly operating in the direction of Sverdlikovo and near Novoivanovka Infantry and artillery elements of the Chechen "Akhmat" Spetsnaz reportedly continue to operate in Kursk Oblast.
The Khortytsia operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the northeastern part of Ukraine. )
Kharkiv Sector: Over the last day Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 5 Russian attacks in the area of Hlyboke, Starytsia and Vovchansk.
Kupyansk Sector: Russian Forces carried out 7 offensive actions against Ukrainian defensive positions near Dvorichna, Zapdne, Synkivka and Zahryzove. 1 engagement is ongoing.
Lyman Sector: Russian Forces carried out 21 unsuccessful offensive actions against Ukrainian defensive positions near Lozova, Nadiya, Makiivka, Terny and the Serebryanskyy forest. 3 engagements are ongoing.
Siversk Sector: In this sector, over the last day, there has been no significant change in the combat environment.
Kramatorsk Sector: Russian forces carried out 6 unsuccessful offensive actions against Ukrainian defences in the vicinity of Chasiv Yar, Stupochky, and Bila Hora.
Toretsk Sector: Over the last day Russian forces carried out 4 offensive actions with air support near Toretsk. 2 engagements are ongoing.
The Tavria operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the central-eastern and southeastern part of Ukraine.)
Pokrovsk Sector : Over the last day, the high intensity of combat was in this sector, Russian Forces carried out 46 offensive actions against Ukrainian defensive positions in the vicinity of Myrolyubivka, Promin, Lysivka, Dachenske, Shevchenko, Pishchane, Novotroitske and Chumatske. 3 engagements are ongoing.
Kurakhove Sector: Russia conducted 46 offensive actions in the vicinity of Sontsivka, Stari Terny, Kurakhove, Dalnje and Uspenivka. 5 engagements are ongoing.
Vremivka Sector: Russian forces made 30 attempts to break through Ukrainian defences in the vicinity of Novodarivka, Neskuchine, Rozdolne, Sukhi Yaly and Kostiantynopolske. 1 engagement is ongoing.
Orikhiv Sector: Russian forces made 1 unsuccessful attempt to break through Ukrainian defences in the vicinity of Novodanylivka.
The Odesa operational-strategic group
(Responsible for Kherson, Qırım, (also known as Crimea) and the Black Sea.)
Prydniprovsk Sector: In this sector, over the last day, there has been no significant change in the combat environment. Russian forces made 2 unsuccessful attempts to dislodge Ukrainian units from their positions.
TEMPORARILY OCCUPIED TERRITORIES
Nothing major to report.
THE HOME FRONT
Ukraine intercepts 81 of 93 Russian missiles fired overnight.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced that Russia launched 93 missiles and nearly 200 drones in a massive attack on Ukraine, with Ukrainian air defenses intercepting 81 missiles. Ukrinform reports citing Zelenskyy on Twitter.
"Another Russian missile strike against Ukraine. Cruise missiles, ballistic missiles. According to preliminary reports, 93 missiles were launched, including at least one North Korean missile. A total of 81 missiles were shot down, 11 of which were cruise missiles intercepted by our F-16s. Additionally, the Russians used nearly 200 drones in this attack. This was one of the largest strikes targeting our energy infrastructure," Zelenskyy said.
He emphasized that this is Putin's "peace plan" -- to destroy everything.
"This is how he wants 'negotiations' -- by terrorizing millions of people. He is neither limited in long-range capabilities nor in acquiring the necessary components to produce missiles. Oil gives Putin enough money to believe in his impunity. A strong reaction is needed from the world: a massive attack must be met with a massive reaction. This is the only way terror can be stopped," Zelenskyy said.
He stressed that if leaders fear responding or become accustomed to terror, Putin sees it as permission to continue. Zelenskyy emphasized that Patriot systems are needed to shoot down these missiles and prove that terror will not achieve its goals and that sanctions against Russia for the war must be strengthened to genuinely impact Russia's missile production.
"Putin won't be stopped by empty talk -- strength is what is needed to bring peace. Strength that is not afraid of its ability to confront and stop evil. The world can stop this madness, and to do so, it must first stop the madness in Moscow that has been ordering terror for over 20 years. Strength is what is needed. Ukraine is grateful to everyone who is helping," Zelenskyy said.
On December 13, Russia launched a large number of missiles over Ukraine. An air alert was declared throughout Ukraine. The energy sector was under attack.
Russian missiles batter Ukraine's embattled power grid
Russia hammered Ukrainian energy facilities in a massive aerial attack on Friday that President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said was one of the largest yet on the ailing grid and evidence of why Kyiv needed more Western support before any peace with Russia. Reuters reports.
Russia's 12th major assault on the energy system this year damaged power facilities in several Ukrainian regions and forced authorities to impose even longer electricity cuts for millions of civilians, the national grid operator said.
With winter temperatures currently around -6 degrees Celsius, the strikes increase pressure on Ukraine at an unpredictable moment with Donald Trump set to return to the White House next month, vowing to end the war quickly.
"This is (Russian President Vladimir) Putin's plan for 'peace' – to destroy everything. This is how he wants 'negotiations' – terrorising millions of people," Zelenskyy said on X.
"A strong reaction from the world is needed: a massive strike – a massive reaction."
Russia launched 93 missiles, including one manufactured in North Korea, and nearly 200 drones during the attack, Zelenskyy said. Air defences intercepted 81 of the missiles, including 11 shot down by F-16 fighter jets, he added.
The full extent of the damage was hard to assess. After repeated Russian attacks, officials reveal little detailed information about the state of the network.
Six unspecified energy facilities were damaged in the western region of Lviv that borders Poland, officials said.
An industry source told Reuters the attack had targeted power substations and that there had been more strikes on gas infrastructure than in past assaults.
Unspecified equipment at thermal power plants sustained serious damage, according to DTEK, Ukraine's biggest private power provider, which has been battered by the strikes since Russia's February 2022 invasion.
Officials said they had imposed additional power cuts due to the attack. In the region outside Kyiv, the power cuts were scheduled to last for 11 hours, up from eight hours before the attack. Around a half of power company Yasno's 3.5 million consumers were without power on Friday, their CEO said.
"I reiterate my call for the urgent delivery of 20 NASAMS, HAWK, or IRIS-T air defense systems," Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha wrote in a post on X, responding to the attack.
The International Atomic Energy Agency said five of Ukraine's nine operating nuclear reactor units had reduced power output due to renewed attacks on energy infrastructure.
One person received light injuries, officials said.
“As Ukrainians wake to the coldest day of the winter so far, the enemy tries to break our spirit with this cynical terrorist attack," DTEK's CEO Maxim Timchenko said.
Moscow described its assault as retaliation for Ukraine using U.S.-supplied ATACMS missiles to attack a Russian military airfield this week.
Five of nine Ukrainian nuclear reactors lower output amid Russian latest attack
New Voice reported that as a result of Russia’s massive strike against Ukrainian infrastructure on Dec 13, five of Ukraine’s nine nuclear reactors were forced to reduce their power output, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) wrote on X.
Ukraine now operates the Khmelnytskyi, Rivne, and South Ukraine nuclear power plants, having nine reactors in total. At the beginning of December, eight of these were operational, with one reactor offline for maintenance.
Previously, most of these reactors had gradually resumed electricity production after a sharp reduction on Nov. 28, implemented as a precautionary measure in another Russian attack.
Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant, occupied by Russian forces at the start of the full-scale invasion, has not produced electricity for over two years. All six of its reactors remain in cold shutdown.
Fires break out in Ternopil and Ivano-Frankivsk oblasts after Russian missile and drone strikes
State Emergency Service of Ukraine reported that a missile strike in Ternopil Oblast damaged an industrial facility, sparking a large fire. New Voice reports.
Fifty-seven rescuers and 16 units of equipment responded to the emergency," officials said, commenting on the published footage.
In Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast, Russian forces targeted critical infrastructure, igniting fires that were quickly extinguished.
Firefighting activities continued in Ternopil throughout the morning.
Ukraine suspends coking coal mining near Donetsk’s Pokrovsk amid Russian advance
Ukraine’s largest mining company Metinvest has suspended operations at one of its key coking coal mining facilities near Pokrovsk due to the proximity of military operations, Ukrainian publication Fokus reports.
According to Metinvest’s press service, the company has halted work at its coal mining site in Pishchane near Pokrovsk, Donetsk Oblast, where Vertical Shaft No. 3 of the Pokrovsk coal complex and administrative facilities are located. The company has evacuated essential personnel and their families from the site.
The facility is part of Ukraine’s largest coking coal mine and specializes in producing high-quality coking coal essential for steel production. Workers and their families were evacuated. Other key Metinvest facilities continue to operate, the company states.
“Metinvest is closely monitoring the security situation around the city and industrial sites in cooperation with Pokrovsk City Military Administration and Armed Forces of Ukraine representatives,” the company’s statement reads. “Decisions regarding the continuation of work at all industrial sites will be made considering the evolving conditions at the front. The full impact of the work suspension at the Pishchane coal site is currently being assessed.”
RUSSIAN WORLD
UK Defense Intelligence: Moscow Struggles to Balance Priorities Between Ukraine and Syria
The UK Ministry of Defence in their Dec 13 Intelligence Update on Ukraine stated Russian officials almost certainly consider the collapse of the Assad regime, its former Syrian ally, to be both detrimental to its regional strategic interests, and to its image as a security guarantor.
Russian leadership almost certainly considers the war in Ukraine to be their primary concern. Russia’s prioritization of the war likely degraded Russia's ability and capacity to keep the Assad regime in power.
Russia’s primary aim in Syria is to maintain control of its military bases, its largest overseas naval base at Tartus and its airbase in Khmeimim, to enable Russian strategic access to the Near East and Mediterranean Sea, supporting its aims in Africa and allowing for military power projection. The collapse of the Assad regime has almost certainly increased the risk to the security of these assets.
In the short term, Russia will highly likely seek to repair its reputation as a reliable partner and engage diplomatically with all relevant actors involved, in efforts to ensure security guarantees for its military bases.
Massive fire engulfs warehouse in Russia's Novosibirsk
A massive fire engulfed a warehouse in the Russian city of Novosibirsk in Siberia overnight on Dec. 13, covering 5,000 square meters, The Kyiv Independent reported citing Russian media.
Footage showed flames consuming the multi-story building, with every window alight and parts of the roof collapsing. The warehouse reportedly stored various goods, including plastic products.
Andrii Kovalenko, head of Ukraine's counter-disinformation center, alleged that the warehouse was a military-linked facility supporting key industries such as energy infrastructure and explosion-proof equipment production.
"Not just an ordinary warehouse, but a military facility burned down in Novosibirsk," Kovalenko said.
The cause of the fire is currently unclear. Novosibirsk lies around 2,800 kilometers (1,700 miles) east of Moscow and roughly 3,000 kilometers (1,860 miles) from the Ukrainian border.
In a separate incident, drones reportedly attacked barracks housing a police regiment in Grozny, Chechnya, overnight on Dec. 12.
Ukraine has intensified drone strikes deep into Russian territory, targeting military bases and industrial facilities to disrupt Moscow’s war effort in Ukraine. These attacks highlight Kyiv’s strategy of undermining Russian infrastructure as the war continues.
Drone strikes Kadyrov’s forces barracks in Grozny
A drone struck the Akhmat Kadyrov Special Purpose Police Regiment barracks in Russia’s Grozny, Chechnya, over 800 km behind the lines, in the early hours of Dec 12, allegedly wounding four guards and triggering a significant emergency response across the city. Euromaidan Press reports.
The attack occurred at 00:55 local time (23:55 Kyiv time). Chechen opposition Telegram channel Niyso reported that the explosion was powerful enough to be heard in suburban areas, with numerous residents posting about the incident on social media.
Videos, published by Russian Telegram channels, showed a massive explosion low in the night sky, and subsequent response to the attack.
Ramzan Kadyrov wrote on Telegram:
“The drone was shot down above the barracks buildings of the special police regiment. No one was seriously injured. Four guard personnel received minor injuries,” Kadyrov stated on his Telegram channel. He claimed that the personnel on duty were in protected facilities at the time of the attack.
According to Niyso, at least five ambulances were seen transporting the wounded to the Republican Clinical Emergency Hospital. The channel reported that the explosion damaged the building’s roof and broke windows, with falling fragments causing a small fire that was quickly extinguished.
The targeted facility is part of Russia’s Interior Ministry and is used for special operations in Chechnya. The unit has also participated in Russia’s war against Ukraine. In June 2024, the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) said that since Russia’s full-scale invasion, over 40,000 Russian military personnel and mercenaries, mostly Kadyrov’s troops, had been trained at this facility.
This marks the second attack on Kadyrov’s facility this month, following a previous drone strike on 4 December 2024. Ukrainian special service sources later unofficially confirmed to Suspilne that the drones in that attack might have been launched from Dagestan or Ingushetia.
INTERNATIONAL NEWS
Dutch Supreme Court dismisses Russia's appeal in Naftogaz's $5 billion arbitration case
The Supreme Court of the Netherlands has rejected Russia's appeal against the Hague Arbitration Court's ruling requiring Moscow to pay $5 billion in damages to Naftogaz, The Kyiv Independent reported citing a statement from the Ukrainian state-owned energy company on Dec. 13.
Russia was ordered to pay the sum as compensation for misappropriated assets in occupied Crimea.
The tribunal ruled in February 2019 that Russia had expropriated Naftogaz's assets in Crimea in violation of the bilateral investment agreement between Ukraine and Russia.
This marks the second definitive ruling by Dutch courts confirming the validity of the Hague arbitration tribunal's partial award.
Following the 2019 ruling, the tribunal determined the damages in April 2023, ordering Russia to pay $5 billion. Despite the ruling, Russia continued to dispute the decision.
The assets in question were seized following Russia's illegal occupation of Crimea in March 2014, which was carried out after a sham referendum held under military occupation and without international oversight.
MILITARY & TECH
Ukraine commences manufacture of NATO standard assault rifles.
JSC Ukrainian Defense Industry enterprise has begun assembling NATO-standard rifles under a licensing agreement with the Czech firearms manufacturer Ceska zbrojovka, Ukrinform reports, citing the company's press service
"Licensed assembly of Bren 2 rifles began in November 2024 at one of the enterprises belonging to JSC Ukrainian Defense Industry. This marks a practical continuation of our cooperation with Ceska zbrojovka, a subsidiary of Colt CZ (the Czech Republic)," the report said.
The current agreement with partners includes plans for localized assembly and aims to establish full-scale production of NATO-standard assault rifles within Ukraine in the future.
According to Oleh Huliak, director general at Ukraine's state-owned arms manufacturer Ukroboronprom, this collaboration with the Czech company is a crucial step toward integrating Ukraine's defense industry into NATO's industrial supply chains.
In February 2024, JSC Ukrainian Defense Industry signed a letter of intent and a license transfer agreement with Ceska zbrojovka a.s., a subsidiary of Colt CZ Group SE. This facilitates the production of NATO-standard rifles, particularly the CZ Bren 2 model, in Ukraine.
Grumpy here - The Czech designed CZ BREN 2 is a well engineered military assault rifle with a modular design that allows for various configurations calibres of ammunition and barrel lengths including the addition of an underbarrel grenade launcher. Some existing Ukrainian units already issue this rifle.
MiG-29SMT Deal With Algeria Slowly Falls Apart As russia Loses Another Customer Amid the Ukraine War
Algeria seems disinterested in the aircraft just confirmed to be rusting away at an aircraft repair factory near Kursk, which might be another example of the political toxicity of russian weapons on the global arms market Defense Express reports.
Various media outlets reported recently that almost half of russia's MiG-29SMT fleet is stuck at the 514th Aircraft Repair Plant (ARZ) near Kursk despite the plans to sell these fighter aircraft to Algeria. Instead, the Kremlin is facing a choice: to disassemble the jets for spare parts or give them to North Korea.
These reports quote the Twitter profile of the Eastern Order of Battle website, and despite the original information lacking reliable verification, let's analyze this situation in detail.
For starters, let us clarify that the Russian Aerospace Forces had a total of 14 MiG-29SMT aircraft in its inventory as of the beginning of this year, according to The Military Balance 2024 study by London-based think tank IISS. This implies that if a certain number of MiG-29SMTs are indeed "rusting away" at the 514th ARZ near Kursk, as the source claims, these must be some jets that have not been officially accepted into the Russian air force yet.
A brief reminder: what makes the MiG-29SMT modification different from the baseline version is the capability to use air-to-surface weapons and updated cockpit equipment.
Meanwhile Algeria, as per the same Military Balance directory, was in possession of 22 MiG-29C/UB and 14 MiG-29M/M2 aircraft as of the early weeks of 2024, with some of these aircraft planned for transfer to Sudan as allied aid.
This is where the most interesting part begins. Algeria really wanted to buy a certain number of MiG-29SMTs from Russia, the first batch of 15 fighters was actually delivered in 2006 but soon enough the Algerian military returned these MiGs back to the Russians with complaints about the poor operational condition of the aircraft.
Apparently, after this, the Russian federation never found new customers for these aircraft, and even the Russian Ministry of Defense apparently wasn't interested either. Subsequently, these MiG-29SMTs in substandard condition were relocated to the 514th ARZ near Kursk and remained there — that's where the trail of public data ended until the reports from a few days ago.
Therefore, it would be logical to assume that now Russia would try to use these aircraft as payment in kind to North Korea in exchange for its deployment of soldiers against Ukraine, especially since it's not new to Russia to supply its business partners with somewhat substandard aircraft from storage.
In that regard, we should recall that Russia once redirected the Su-35S fighters from an unrealized contract with Egypt and handed them to Iran in exchange for Shahed-type killer drones and/or other military goods. There's also one more interesting episode where Moscow spent 15 years looking for a buyer for the faulty Indian Su-30Ks until selling them to Ethiopia.
That’s it for today’s Brief folks if you would like to keep up with events in Ukraine daily please consider subscribing.
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