THE RUSSO-UKRAINE WAR BRIEF
For: 25-01-02
Slava Ukraini! In early 2022 I began a Telegram channel aggregating news from a number of sources daily on the war in Ukraine. In June 2023 I began providing a daily draft for the Ukraine War Brief Podcast collecting news from over 70 sources daily, which formed the basis of the script. While the Podcast no longer exists I have continued to make this Brief available for my followers here on Substack for those who wish to keep up with the news from the war.
All the latest news on the Russo-Ukraine War 6 days per week
ALONG THE CONTACT LINE
What does Russia have to show for 420,000 casualties in 2024?
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a US based think tank, in its Dec 31 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment reported that Russian forces gained 4,168 square kilometers, largely comprised of fields and small settlements in Ukraine and Kursk Oblast, at a reported cost of over 420,000 casualties in 2024. Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi stated on December 30 that Russian forces suffered 427,000 casualties in 2024.
ISW has observed geolocated evidence to assess that Russian forces advanced 4,168 square kilometers in 2024, indicating that Russian forces have suffered approximately 102 casualties per square kilometer of Ukrainian territory seized. ISW previously observed that Russian forces gained 2,356 square kilometers in exchange for an estimated 125,800 casualties during a period of intensified Russian offensive operations in September, October, and November 2024. Russian forces made 56.5 percent of their 2024 territorial gains during the September through November 2024 period. Russian Security Council Deputy Chairperson Dmitry Medvedev claimed on Dec 24 that 440,000 recruits signed military service contracts with the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) in 2024, suggesting that Russia is likely recruiting just enough military personnel to replace its recently high casualty rates one for one.
GSAFU Morning Report
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in its Operational Information update at 08:00 on Jan 2 stated that day 1044 of the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation against Ukraine had begun.
During the past two days, 331 combat engagements took place. Over the past 48 hours, the enemy carried out 7 missile strikes, 59 air strikes, used more than 3,238 drones and more than 7,351 artillery strikes across the positions of Ukrainian forces and civilians.
At the same time, Ukrainian soldiers continue to inflict losses in manpower and equipment on the occupying troops, exhausting the enemy along the entire front line and continue to disrupt the plans of Russian occupiers to advance deeper into the territory of Ukraine.
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Air Force Daily Report
63 ENEMY UAVS SHOT, 46 DRONES FAILED TO REACH THEIR TARGETS (LOCATIONALLY LOST)
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On the night of Jan 1, 2025 (from 8:30 p.m. on December 31), the enemy attacked with 111 Shahed attack UAVs and drones of other types from the directions of Bryansk, Orel, Primorsko-Akhtarsk, and Crimea.
The air attack was repelled by aviation, anti-aircraft missile troops, electronic warfare units, and mobile fire groups of the Air Force and Defense Forces of Ukraine.
As of 09:30, it was confirmed that 63 Shahed attack UAVs and drones of other types were shot down in Poltava, Sumy, Kyiv, Chernihiv, Cherkasy, Zaporizhia, Zhytomyr, Khmelnytskyi, Kirovohrad, and Mykolaiv regions.
Due to the active countermeasures of the Defense Forces, 46 enemy drones-simulators were lost in location (without negative consequences), and two more flew to Russia and Belarus.
47 ENEMY UAVS WERE SHOT, 24 DRUANS FAILED TO REACH THEIR TARGETS (LOCATIONALLY LOST)
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On the night of January 2, 2025 (from 7:00 p.m. on January 1), the enemy attacked with 72 Shahed attack UAVs and drones of other types from the directions of Bryansk, Orel, Kursk, Primorsko-Akhtarsk - Russia.
The air attack was repelled by aviation, anti-aircraft missile troops, electronic warfare units, and mobile fire groups of the Air Force and Defense Forces of Ukraine.
As of 08:30, it was confirmed that 47 Shahed attack UAVs and drones of other types were shot down in Poltava, Sumy, Kharkiv, Kyiv, Chernihiv, Cherkasy, Kirovohrad, Dnipropetrovsk, Odesa, Kherson, and Mykolaiv regions.
Due to the active countermeasures of the Defense Forces, 24 enemy drones-simulators were lost in location (without negative consequences).
The Russian Border Incursion
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a US based think tank, in its Dec 31 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment reported that Ukrainian forces recently advanced in Kursk Oblast amid continued fighting in Ukraine's salient on Dec 31. Ukraine’s Special Operations Forces (SSO) published later geolocated footage on December 31 that indicates that Ukrainian forces seized Kruglenkoye (southeast of Korenevo) and reported that Ukrainian forces established positions in a settlement previously held by North Korean and Russian forces in Kursk Oblast, likely referring to Kruglenkoye. Geolocated footage published on December 30 shows that Ukrainian forces also advanced east of Pogrebki (northwest of Sudzha) along the 38K-024 highway.
Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces advanced from Russkaya Konopelka to Agronom (both east of Sudzha), where Russian forces are currently attacking, and to the outskirts of Makhnovka (southeast of Sudzha). A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces are 2.5 kilometers away from Sudzha. Elements of the Russian 56th Airborne (VDV) Regiment (7th VDV Division) and the Russian 810th Naval Infantry Brigade (Black Sea Fleet [BSF], Southern Military District [SMD]) are reportedly operating in Kursk Oblast. Elements of the Russian 83rd Airborne (VDV) Division are reportedly operating in Korenevsky Raion.
Due to technical limitations - on a go forward basis we will only be reporting on areas of the front where significant events occured.
The Khortytsia operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the northeastern part of Ukraine. )
Lyman Sector: In this sector Russian forces attempted to advance toward Terny from two directions.
Kramatorsk Sector: Russian forces advanced slightly to the north of Chasiv Yar.
The Tavria operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the central-eastern and southeastern part of Ukraine.)
Pokrovsk Sector : In this sector Russian forces conducted 35 assaults over the last day reportedly advancing in the area of Vovkove, Solone and Novoieyzavetivka.
Kurakhove Sector: Russia has reportedly finally completed its capture of the town of Kurakhove and is attempting to advance towards Shevchenko.
The Odesa operational-strategic group
(Responsible for Kherson, Qırım, (also known as Crimea) and the Black Sea.)
Kherson Sector: Russian forces twice attempted to occupy Zabych Island in the Dnipro river delta, but were driven back by Ukrainian defenders.
TEMPORARILY OCCUPIED TERRITORIES
Nothing major to report.
THE HOME FRONT
Russian drone attack on Jan 1 kills 2, injures 6, damages central bank building in Kyiv
Russia launched a drone attack on Kyiv on the morning of Jan 1, killing two people, The Kyiv Independent reports citing Tymur Tkachenko, head of the Kyiv city military administration on Telegram,.
At least six people were injured in the attack, Ukraine's State Emergency Service said. The Prosecutor General's Office said on Telegram that the injured included two pregnant women.
The National Bank of Ukraine said that one of its buildings in Kyiv's Pechersk District had been damaged by falling debris. The central bank's main building is located near the President's Office on Bankova Street.
“All the NBU's (National Bank of Ukraine) operating systems and services are fully operational and unaffected,” the central bank said in a statement posted on Facebook, adding that windows on the upper floors were damaged.
Russia launched 111 drones, including Shahed ones, against Ukraine overnight on Jan. 1, Ukraine’s Air Force reported on its Telegram channel on Jan. 1.
Air defense shot down 63 drones over 10 oblasts, while another 46 drones did not reach their targets, the Air Force said.
Russia has not slowed down its attacks on Ukraine over the holiday period. President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Dec. 29 that Moscow had escalated its aerial assaults on Ukraine.
On Dec. 25, Russia conducted a large-scale Christmas attack, firing 78 missiles and 106 drones against multiple cities.
Ukraine’s electricity imports increased more than fivefold in 2024
Ukraine’s electricity import increased more than fivefold in 2024 to 4.4 million megawatt-hours (MWh), the Kyiv Independent reported citing ExPro consulting company’s electricity monitoring data showed on Jan. 2.
Russia has been carrying out massive campaigns of aerial attacks against Ukraine's energy infrastructure since late 2022. The damages have caused serious energy deficits and necessitated the introduction of rolling blackouts across the country, sometimes lasting 20 hours.
Russia also occupies Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, the largest nuclear power plant in Europe. The peak of imports this year occurred in June, when Ukraine received more than 850,000 MWh.
Over the last year, Hungary accounted for 39% of the imports, followed by Slovakia with 23% and Romania at 18%, and Poland – 14%, data showed. Ukraine became a net importer of electricity, exporting only 366,000 MWh in 2024.
Russia also targeted substations vital for the operation of the three remaining Ukraine-run nuclear power plants: Rivne, Khmelnytskyi, and South Ukraine, intensifying the strain on the country’s nuclear power plants, which supply two-thirds of its electricity. Experts warn that disrupting power to these facilities could lead to severe safety risks.
The International Monetary Fund estimated the damage to Ukraine’s power grid as a result of Russian attacks to cumulate as high as $56.5 billion by mid-2024.
Russian attacks 0n Jan 2 against Ukraine kill 4, injure at least 6 over past day
Russian attacks against Ukraine wounded six and killed four people over the past day, The Kyiv Independent reported citing regional authorities on Jan 2.
Two civilians were killed and six were injured in Kherson Oblast following Russian strikes on civilian infrastructure, high-rise buildings, and houses in over 38 of the oblast’s settlements, Governor Oleksandr Prokudin reported on his Telegram channel.
A Russian attack overnight killed a civilian in the town of Stepnohirsk in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, Governor Ivan Fedorov reported on his Telegram channel on Jan 2.
One person was killed in the city of Mirnohrad in Donetsk Oblast, Governor Vadym Filashkin reported on his Telegram channel.
Russia launched 72 drones, including Iranian-designed Shahed ones, against Ukraine overnight on Jan. 2, Ukraine's Air Force reported on its Telegram channel.
Ukraine's air defense shot down 47 drones over 12 oblasts, and forced an additional 24 drone-imitations to veer off course without casualties, the Air Force said. One drone was in the air at the time of the publication of the Air Force’s report.
Civilian infrastructure, buildings and a car were damaged as a result of Russian attacks in Kharkiv Oblast, but there were no civilian injuries, Governor Oleh Syniehubov reported on his Telegram channel.
RUSSIAN WORLD
Ukrainian strategic strikes in Russia
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a US based think tank, in its Dec 31 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment reported that Ukrainian forces struck the Yarsevskaya oil depot in Smolensk Oblast and a building used by the Russian military in Lgov, Kursk Oblast on Dec 30 and 31. The Ukrainian General Staff reported on December 31 that Ukrainian Special Operations Forces (SSO) and Unmanned Systems Forces (USF) launched drone strikes against the Yarsevskaya oil depot, resulting in a series of intense explosions, heavy smoke, and oil tanks catching on fire near the depot. The Ukrainian General Staff added that the nearby oil refinery supplied the Russian war effort. Russian authorities confirmed that Ukrainian drones struck the oil refinery in Yarsevsky Raion, resulting in an oil spill and fire at the refinery.
Yartsevsky Raion Head Roman Zakharov confirmed the Ukrainian drone strike on social media but later deleted the post and amplified Smolensk Oblast Governor Vasily Anokhin's claim that the debris from downed Ukrainian drones resulted in a fire at the oil refinery.
Russian opposition outlet Astra, citing unnamed sources, reported that Ukrainian forces launched at least six Storm Shadow missile against a building used by Russian forces in Lgov on D 30. Astra reported that the strike killed eight Russian servicemembers, wounded several Russian servicemembers, and wounded one civilian. Kursk Oblast Acting Governor Alexander Khinshtein claimed that Ukrainian forces struck an apartment building in Lgov.
Russia confirms loss of two Mi-8 helicopters by Ukrainian naval drones.
Russian military propagandists have confirmed the loss of two Mi-8 helicopters and their crews over the Black Sea on Dec 31, 2024. Defence Blog reports citing Russian sources.
The helicopters were struck by missile fire launched from a Ukrainian unmanned surface vessel (USV), identified as the MAGURA V5, during a combat operation near Cape Tarkhankut in Crimea.
The incident, initially reported by Ukraine’s Main Directorate of Intelligence (HUR MO), was later corroborated by Russian sources. Ukraine claimed one helicopter was destroyed, while another sustained damage but returned to base. However, Russian sources now acknowledge that both helicopters were lost.
“Losing so many of our best men at once—this hasn’t happened since 2022. Eternal memory to the combat crews. Eternal memory to the warriors,” wrote Ilya Tumanov, a Russian Armed Forces officer and administrator of the Telegram channel Fighterbomber.
The MAGURA V5, deployed by Ukraine’s special operations unit “Group 13,” is an advanced uncrewed maritime platform equipped with missile systems. This mission marked the first confirmed instance of such a vessel successfully downing aerial targets in combat, signaling a transformative moment in modern warfare.
Russian aviation experts have also criticized the tactical shortcomings that led to the losses. “The loss of two Mi-8s could have been avoided by simply adjusting tactics for countering USVs,” noted the Russian Aviation publication.
The incident highlights Ukraine’s increasing reliance on innovative, unmanned technologies to counter traditional military hardware. By integrating advanced systems like the MAGURA V5 with conventional weaponry, Ukraine has demonstrated the potential to challenge conventional air and naval superiority in contested zones like the Black Sea.
‘Pure Hypocrisy’: Luxury Western Goods Line Russian Stores Nearly 3 Years After Business Exodus
Despite sweeping Western sanctions and the exodus of global brands after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Moscow’s affluent shoppers continue to enjoy access to a wide variety of luxury Western goods. The Moscow Times reports.
In the Russian capital’s elite shopping districts, high-end department stores and upscale local outlets are bustling with sales of Western sports cars, designer clothing and gold jewelry, defying early expectations of economic isolation.
“I don’t see any particular changes,” said Natalia, a 51-year-old dentist strolling through the lavish GUM shopping mall on Red Square. “Maybe three stores — Chanel, Dior and Hermes — have left. All the rest are the same as before. Even Brunello Cucinelli is here,” she said, naming the Italian fashion house.
“They wanted to isolate us? Please! We are so isolated here it’s even funny,” said 61-year-old retiree Sergei, leaving an upmarket store.
The United States, European Union and Britain banned the export of luxury goods to Russia as part of their sanctions in response to the invasion of Ukraine. Scores of brands also voluntarily left the Russian market, including Chanel, Hermes, LVMH and Kering.
However, nearly three years later, many of their logos can still be found on Moscow store shelves. And while some of these brands shuttered their storefronts in Moscow, others have retained their leases, signaling potential plans to return.
“Their announced departure is pure hypocrisy,” said a French businessman selling luxury goods in Moscow. “Even though their stores are officially closed, these brands sell to Russians through ‘marketplaces’ and dealers,” he added, requesting anonymity.
Sanctioned goods continue to enter Russia through middlemen in countries like Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, and Azerbaijan, ex-Soviet states with close ties to Moscow. Export data shows a spike in trade between these nations and Western countries since sanctions were imposed.
“One way or another, everything is imported,” said Elena, a 38-year-old marketing manager for a luxury lingerie designer, shopping in central Moscow. “It’s a little more complicated, but overall everybody manages.”
INTERNATIONAL NEWS
Russian gas era in Europe ends as Ukraine stops transit
Russian gas exports via Soviet-era pipelines running through Ukraine came to a halt on New Year's Day, marking the end of decades of Moscow's dominance over Europe's energy markets.Reuters reports.
The gas had kept flowing despite nearly three years of war, but Russia's gas firm Gazprom said it had stopped at 0500 GMT after Ukraine refused to renew a transit agreement.
The widely expected stoppage will not impact prices for consumers in the European Union - unlike in 2022, when falling supplies from Russia sent prices to record highs, worsened a cost-of-living crisis and hit the bloc's competitiveness.
The last remaining EU buyers of Russian gas via Ukraine, such as Slovakia and Austria, have arranged alternative supply, while Hungary will keep receiving Russian gas via the TurkStream pipeline under the Black Sea.
But Transdniestria, a breakaway pro-Russian region of Ukraine's neighbour Moldova also reliant on the transit flows, cut off heating and hot water supplies to households early on Wednesday. Local energy company Tirasteploenergo urged residents to dress warmly, hang blankets or thick curtains over windows and balcony doors, and use electric heaters.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, writing on the Telegram messaging app, said the end of gas transit through his country to Europe was "one of Moscow's biggest defeats" and urged the U.S. to supply more gas to Europe.
"The more there is on the market from Europe's real partners, the faster we will overcome the last negative consequences of European energy dependence on Russia," he wrote.
Europe's "joint task" now, he wrote, was to support ex-Soviet Moldova "in this period of energy transformation".
The European Commission said the EU had prepared for the cut-off.
"The European gas infrastructure is flexible enough to provide gas of non-Russian origin," a spokesperson for the Commission said. "It has been reinforced with significant new LNG (liquefied natural gas) import capacities since 2022."
Russia and the former Soviet Union spent half a century building up a major share of the European gas market, which at its peak stood at around 35%. But the EU has slashed its dependence on Russian energy since the start of the war in Ukraine by buying more piped gas from Norway and LNG from Qatar and the United States.
MILITARY & TECH
Ukraine Tests High-Speed Interceptor Drone
Ukrainian operators recently conducted tests of the TYTAN Technologies interceptor drone, a German-engineered system. Defense Express reports.
The news was reported on December 29 by the Help Germany Help Ukraine initiative.
This interceptor drone can reach speeds of up to 300 km/h and has an effective range of up to 20 km. Instead of carrying explosives, it neutralizes targets through direct collision. The manufacturer also plans to integrate an auto-guidance system in future iterations.
During the testing phase, representatives from the Ukrainian Armed Forces observed and praised the drone’s performance.
Plans are underway to connect TYTAN Technologies with Ukrainian developers working on complementary solutions, enabling collaboration to refine and enhance their technologies further.
That’s it for today’s Brief folks if you would like to keep up with events in Ukraine daily please consider subscribing.
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