THE RUSSO-UKRAINE WAR BRIEF
For: 25-01-20
Slava Ukraini! In early 2022 I began a Telegram channel aggregating news from a number of sources daily on the war in Ukraine. In June 2023 I began providing a daily draft for the Ukraine War Brief Podcast collecting news from over 70 sources daily, which formed the basis of the script. While the Podcast no longer exists I have continued to make this Brief available for my followers here on Substack for those who wish to keep up with the news from the war.
All the latest news on the Russo-Ukraine War 6 days per week
ALONG THE CONTACT LINE
GSAFU Morning Report
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in its Operational Information update at 08:00 on Jan 20 stated that day 1062 of the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation against Ukraine had begun.
The situation on the line of combat remains tense in some sectors. Ukrainian defenders continue to actively counteract the Russian aggressor, causing them losses in personnel equipment and technology. Exhausting the enemy along the entire front line and continuing to disrupt the plans of Russian occupiers to advance deeper into the territory of Ukraine.
During the past two days,388 combat engagements took place.
Over the past 48 hours, the enemy carried out 6 missile strikes, 65 air strikes, used 5,252 drones and approximately 10,000 artillery strikes across the positions of Ukrainian forces and civilians.
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Air Force Daily Report
43 ENEMY UAVS SHOT DOWN, 15 DRONES FAILED TO REACH THEIR TARGETS (LOCATIONALLY LOST)
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On the night of January 19, 2025 (from 8:00 p.m. on January 18), the enemy attacked with the 61st Shahed strike UAV and simulator drones of various types from the directions of Millerovo, Bryansk, Orel - Russia.
The air attack was repelled by aviation, anti-aircraft missile troops, electronic warfare units, and mobile fire groups of the Air Force and Defense Forces of Ukraine.
As of 09:00, it was confirmed that 43 Shahed attack UAVs and drones of other types were shot down in Poltava, Sumy, Kharkiv, Cherkasy, Chernihiv, Kyiv, Zhytomyr, Dnipropetrovsk and Mykolaiv regions.
15 enemy drones-simulators - lost in location (without negative consequences). One in the air, combat operation continues.
93 ENEMY UAVS SHOT DOWN, 47 DRUANS FAILED TO REACH THEIR TARGETS (LOCATIONALLY LOST)
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On the night of January 20, 2025 (from 19:00 on January 19), the enemy attacked with the 141st strike UAV of the "Shahed" type and simulator drones of various types from five directions: Millerovo, Orel, Bryansk, Kursk, Primorsko-Akhtarsk - Russia, and also used the Iskander-M ballistic missile from the Kursk region on the Sumy region.
The air attack was repelled by aviation, anti-aircraft missile troops, electronic warfare units, and mobile fire groups of the Air Force and Defense Forces of Ukraine.
As of 08:00, it has been confirmed that 93 Shahed attack UAVs and drones of other types have been shot down in Poltava, Sumy, Kharkiv, Cherkasy, Chernihiv, Kyiv, Khmelnytskyi, Vinnytsia, Kirovohrad, Dnipropetrovsk, Mykolaiv, Kherson and Donetsk regions.
47 enemy drones-simulators were lost in location (without negative consequences), two of them flew to the Russian Federation.
Combat Operations in the Russian Federation
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a US based think tank, in its Jan 19 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment reported that Russian forces recently advanced south of Sudzha amid ongoing activity in the northwestern part of the Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast on Jan 19. Geolocated footage published on Jan 18 indicates that Russian forces recently advanced in eastern Kurilovka (south of Sudzha). A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces advanced near Viktorovka (northwest of Sudzha). Another Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces operating northwest of Sudzha are regrouping near Staraya and Novaya Sorochina and are attacking near Nikolayeva and Viktorovka. Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces conducted reconnaissance-in-force operations near Malaya Loknya and Vikotrovka (both northwest of Sudzha).
Elements of the Russian 56th Airborne (VDV) Regiment (7th VDV Division) are reportedly operating near Novoivanovka (northwest of Sudzha); elements of the Chechen "Kashtan" Spetsnaz Detachment are reportedly operating in Berdin (northeast of Sudzha); and elements of the 83rd and 11th VDV brigades and 40th Naval Infantry Brigade (Pacific Fleet, Eastern Military District [EMD]) are reportedly operating in other unspecified areas of Kursk Oblast.
The Khortytsia operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the northeastern part of Ukraine. )
Kupyansk Sector: Russian forces recently advanced along the Russia-Ukraine international border northeast of Kupyansk amid continued offensive operations in the Kupyansk direction on January 19. The Ukrainian General Staff acknowledged recent claims that Russian forces attacked near Stroivka (northeast of Kupyansk along the Russia-Ukraine international border), indicating that a Russian milblogger’s claim that Russian forces advanced north of Topoli (southeast of Stroivka) is accurate.
Lyman Sector: Russian forces recently advanced northeast of Lyman amid continued offensive operations in the Lyman direction on Jan 19. Geolocated footage published on Jan 18 and 19 indicates that Russian forces seized Ivanivka and Terny (both northeast of Lyman) and advanced further west of Ivanivka and south of Terny.
Chasiv Yar Sector: Both Russian and Ukrainian forces recently advanced in Chasiv Yar amid continued offensive operations in the area on Jan 19. Geolocated footage published on Jan 18 indicates that Ukrainian forces recently regained lost positions in the Refractory Plant in central Chasiv Yar. Geolocated footage published on January 19 indicates that Russian forces recently advanced along Tolstoho Street in western Chasiv Yar.
Ukrainian troops withdraw from, launch aerial attack on Chasiv Yar refractory plant
Ukrainian forces launched an aerial attack against a Russian-occupied refractory plant in the embattled city of Chasiv Yar, the Kyiv Independent reported citing Lieutenant Colonel Dmytro Zaporozhets, spokesperson for the Operational Tactical Group Luhansk on Jan. 18. The attack confirms earlier reports that Ukrainian troops had withdrawn from the plant.
"On the territory of the refractory plant, the enemy tried to gain a foothold, attacking in small and medium groups," Zaporozhets said during a television broadcast. "Thanks to coordinated actions ... (occupying Russian troops) were discovered in one of the premises on the territory of the refractory plant and an air strike was carried out. The enemy suffered losses."
In the past week, Russian military bloggers alleged that Russian forces had pushed Ukrainian troops out of the refractory plant in Chasiv Yar. The crowd-sourced monitoring website Deep State also reported on Jan. 12 that Russia had occupied the site.
The plant served as reliable fortification for Ukrainian forces. The front-line city of Chasiv Yar has become one of the hottest spots in Donetsk Oblast in recent months as Russian troops continue advancing in eastern Ukraine. The city has been partially under Russian control since Ukrainian forces withdrew from the eastern Kanal neighborhood in July.
Fighting has recently intensified near the city, with Russian forces reportedly using armored combat vehicles in their assault for the first time in late December.
Toretsk Sector: Both Ukrainian and Russian forces recently advanced in the Toretsk direction amid continued Russian offensive operations in the area on Jan 19. Geolocated footage published on Jan19 indicates that Ukrainian forces recently recaptured lost positions in southern Shcherbynivka (southwest of Toretsk). Geolocated footage published on Jan 19 indicates that Russian forces recently advanced northward on the territory of the Toretska Mine in northern Toretsk and northwestward along Stepana Razina Street in western Toretsk.
The Tavria operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the central-eastern and southeastern part of Ukraine.)
Kurakhove Sector: Russian forces recently advanced northwest of Kurakhove amid continued offensive operations in the Kurakhove direction on Jan 19. Geolocated footage published on Jan 19 indicates that Russian forces recently marginally advanced southwest of Stary Terny (northwest of Kurakhove).
Velyka Novosilka Sector: Russian forces recently advanced farther in eastern Velyka Novosilka amid continued offensive operations in the area on Jan 19. Geolocated footage published on Jan 19 indicates that Russian forces recently marginally advanced in eastern Velyka Novosilka.
The Odesa operational-strategic group
(Responsible for Kherson, Qırım, (also known as Crimea) and the Black Sea.)
There have been no major changes to the combat environment since our last report.
TEMPORARILY OCCUPIED TERRITORIES
Nothing major to report.
THE HOME FRONT
Russian strikes kill six in Ukraine including in Kyiv, officials say
Russian forces unleashed a combined drone and missile strike on the Ukrainian capital Kyiv early on Saturday, killing three people, while two other attacks in the country's south killed three more, Reuters reports citing local officials.
In Kyiv, explosions boomed across the pre-dawn sky as air defences activated against the attack, which also wounded three others, according to city military administration chief Timur Tkachenko.
A shopping mall, business centre, metro station and water pipe were damaged in the assault, he said.
"Russian forces initially launched drones and then a ballistic-missile strike," parliamentary ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets wrote on social media. "These acts merely underscore the enemy's ruthlessness and barbarity."
Rescue workers plodded through a flooded street as they sifted through debris. The charred remains of a van were visible in front of the station, whose facade was marked by twisted metal and blown-out windows.
As daylight broke, they could be seen examining missile fragments and loading a body bag into a truck.
Air force spokesman Yuriy Ihnat told Ukrainian media that both missiles aimed at Kyiv were destroyed, but that one of them was shot down at a low altitude, resulting in heavy damage.
There was no immediate comment from Moscow, which has denied deliberately targeting civilians.
Another Russian missile attack killed one person and wounded 11 in the southeastern city of Zaporizhzhia, regional governor Ivan Fedorov said.
The governor of the adjacent southern region of Kherson, Oleksandr Prokudin, said Russian shelling killed two people in a town north of the regional centre, also called Kherson.
Russia launched nearly 550 drones, 60 missiles, over 660 aerial bombs against Ukraine in a week.
Russian forces launched around 550 attack drones, nearly 60 missiles of various types, and more than 660 aerial bombs against Ukraine during the past week, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in his evening address on Jan. 20.
Russia launched a mass aerial attack against Ukraine on Jan. 15, targeting Lviv, Kharkiv, Ivano-Frankivsk, and Khmelnytskyi oblasts. On Jan. 18, Russia attacked Kyiv with missiles, killing three people, and injuring three others.
Over the week, the Ukrainian military shot down 33 missiles, including ballistic missiles, and 311 attack drones, according to Zelenskyy. Another 136 drones used in daily attacks on infrastructure "did not reach their targets," the president added.
"I am very grateful to all our soldiers, military aviation, anti-aircraft gunners, electronic warfare units, and mobile fire groups. But the task remains unchanged — continue strengthening our skies' protection," Zelenskyy said.
"More Patriot (air defenses) for Ukraine means more protection of life. More long-range capability for Ukraine means more guarantees that the Russian war will be stopped," he added.
Ukraine has lobbied international partners for more air defense capabilities in the wake of intensifying Russian strikes targeting civilian and energy infrastructure.
Ukraine is also reportedly working on developing its own air defense systems, Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi said in an interview with the Ukrainian news outlet TSN on Jan. 19.
SBI arrests generals, whose inaction led to seizure of part of Kharkiv region in 2024
Employees of the State Bureau of Investigations (SBI), in cooperation with the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU), detained the former commanders, two generals and a colonel, due to whose negligence the enemy was able to seize part of the territory of Kharkiv region in May 2024, Interfax Ukraine reports citing SBI sources.
"Former commanders of the Kharkiv Operational and Tactical Group of Forces, the 125th Separate Territorial Defense Brigade, and the 415th Separate Rifle Battalion of the 23rd Separate Mechanized Brigade, due to their negligent attitude to military service, allowed Russian Federation troops to seize part of the territory of the Lyptsi village territorial community of Kharkiv district," it said in a statement on Monday.
According to the Bureau, the actions of the commanders led to the loss of personnel and weapons and disrupted measures to defend the state border in the area of their responsibility.
The SBI stresses that the brigadier general defined defense positions for the 125th Brigade, which did not correspond to its combat capabilities, moreover, he had other units that could have reinforced these positions.
The commander also made a number of other mistakes, including not fully specified the directions of the main enemy strikes, insufficiently controlled the organization of preparation and conduct of defense actions.
"He did not timely maneuver the forces and means of the grouping, did not organize the support of the brigade's units by artillery and air forces," the SBI said.
The former commander of the 125th Brigade, Lieutenant General, also "underestimated the enemy's capabilities to restore the offensive in the brigade's defense area, inadequately responded to the enemy's build-up of combat capabilities and threats."
In particular, according to the Bureau, he did not ensure the arrangement of combat guard positions, did not take measures to staff the brigade, determined exaggerated combat missions for battalions, did not conduct operational and tactical calculations, did not organize proper equipment of strongholds, engineering barriers, etc.
In addition, according to the SBI, the former brigade commander, having information about the preparation of enemy offensive actions, did not bring it to his subordinates, did not ensure maximum mobilization and presence of all personnel of the brigade, including officers at their positions.
The former commander of the 415th Battalion of the 23th Brigade did not organize the defensive battle in the settlements of Strilecha, Chervoni Lyptsi and Slobozhanske, which were in the battalion line of defense, did not determine what objects to include in the strongholds and how to prepare them for protection, ways to counter the underground mine warfare of the enemy, places of equipment of storage facilities and depots.
The SBI stresses that because of these violations, the enemy "seized the positions of the units of the first and second echelon of battalions, which led to the loss of personnel, penetration of the enemy in the defense strip to a distance of up to 10 kilometers in depth and loss of control over part of the territory along the state border of Ukraine."
The former commander of the 415th Battalion will be additionally notified of suspicion of desertion from the battlefield (Article 429 of the Criminal Code of Ukraine). The sanction of the articles provides for punishment of up to ten years of imprisonment.
RUSSIAN WORLD
RUSSIAN WORLD
Ukraine strikes aviation plant in Russia's Tatarstan.
A fire erupted in the city of Kazan in Russia's Tatarstan republic overnight on Jan. 20 amid a Ukrainian drone attack on the city, the Kyiv Independent reported citing Russian Telegram channels.
Videos posted to social media appear to show a large fire ablaze following a drone attack. Multiple explosions were reported in the city around 5:30 a.m. local time.
Reports indicate that the explosions and fire originated in the Aviastroitelny district of the city, reportedly targeting the Kazan Aviation Plant. The plant, which was sanctioned by the European Union in 2023, is known for manufacturing Tu-160 strategic and Tu-22 long-ranger bomber aircraft, among other civilian aircraft.
Russian Telegram media channels also reported that drones appear to have been targeting nearby Borisoglebskoye airfield which houses several fuel storage tanks.
Tatarstan's press service claimed that no damage had been caused as a result of the attack, adding that all the drones had been successfully downed.
Rosaviatsiya, the country's Federal Air Transport Agency, said that Kazan International Airport has suspended flights amid the attack. Begishevo airport, located east of the city in nearby Nizhnekamsk, as well as Izhevsk's airport northeast of Kazan also had its flights suspended.
Kazan – lying over 900 kilometers (560 miles) east of the Ukrainian border – is located in the Russian republic of Tatarstan, which has previously been the target of Ukrainian drone strikes.
Ukraine has regularly attempted to disrupt Russia's military supply-chain through the use of drone attack. The country's forces regularly target oil refineries that contribute to Russia's war effort.
Russia Charges British Man Captured Fighting in Kursk With ‘Terrorism’
Russian law enforcement authorities said Monday that a British man captured fighting alongside Ukrainian forces in the southwestern Kursk region faces charges of "terrorism" and acting as a "mercenary." the Moscow Times reports.
James Scott Rhys Anderson, 22, was captured in November while fighting with Ukrainian forces in Kursk. He is being held in custody in Russia.
Russia's Investigative Committee, which probes major crimes, said it completed its investigation and determined that Anderson was "directly involved in an armed conflict on Russian territory for material gain."
He was charged with "committing a terrorist act" as part of an organized group causing "significant property damage" and operating as a mercenary in an armed conflict.
The first charge carries a prison sentence of up to 20 years, the second an additional 15 years.
Investigators accused Anderson of illegally crossing the border into Russia while armed and "committed criminal acts against civilians," causing "significant harm to property" and "destabilizing the activities of the authorities."
Anderson has spoken in several videos filmed by Russian officials after he was taken prisoner late last year, appearing with his hands tied and in a prison uniform with his head shaved.
In a video released by pro-Kremlin Telegram channels in November, he said he went to fight for Ukraine's International Legion after being sacked from the British army. He told Russia's Izvestia newspaper he was paid $400 a month and about $60 a day while on combat missions.
Moscow typically considers foreigners traveling to fight in Ukraine as "mercenaries." This enables the authorities to prosecute them under its criminal code rather than treating them as captured prisoners of war with protections and rights under the Geneva Convention.
British Foreign Minister David Lammy said in November that his government would offer Anderson "all the support that we can."
In 2022, a court in Russian-occupied eastern Ukraine sentenced two British fighters to death for fighting for Ukraine, although they were later released in an exchange.
INTERNATIONAL NEWS
China cuts purchases of Russian coal amid sanctions in 2024
China, the world's largest importer of coal, reduced purchases from Russia by 7% in 2024, which is 93.86 million tons, Reuters reports.
Reportedly, this is the first time in recent years that supplies from one of the key exporters have declined. The main reasons for this decline were international sanctions, China's reintroduction of import tariffs on Russian coal, and the introduction of domestic export duties in Russia.
Instead, the biggest beneficiaries of record imports were Australia, Indonesia and Mongolia. Australia, in particular, increased its supplies by 59%, reaching 83.24 million tons, which exceeded the level of 2020, when a trade conflict between Beijing and Canberra began. The restoration of diplomatic relations between the two countries also contributed to the resumption of barley and wine trade.
Imports from Mongolia increased by 19% to 82.82 million tons due to improved border infrastructure. Indonesia remained the largest supplier of coal, providing 236.99 million tons, which is 8% more than last year.
In 2023, China purchased a record 547.2 million tons of coal, accounting for 41% of global trade in this resource. This gives Beijing significant influence on international market pricing. However, the decline in purchases from Russia and the growth of imports from other suppliers demonstrate China's changing priorities, particularly in light of the sanctions pressure on Moscow.
MILITARY & TECH
Syrskyi - Ammunition used by Russians halved following Ukrainian strikes.
Russia's ammunition use has been cut nearly in half amid the long-term impacts of Ukrainian strikes on Russian military targets, Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi said in an interview with the Ukrainian news outlet TSN on Jan. 19.
Ukraine has intensified strikes deep into Russian territory in an attempt to weaken Russia's ability to wage war in its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
"For several months now, the artillery ammunition expenditure rates in the Russian army have practically halved. If previously the figure reached up to 40,000 rounds per day, it is now significantly lower," Syrskyi said when asked what the impact of Ukrainian strikes has been on Russia's military supply-chain.
Ukrainian strikes on Russian territory target "industrial enterprises that produce ammunition, missile parts, or dual-use products are targeted for destruction," Syrsky said, adding that oil refineries serve as regularly military targets.
Ukraine has regularly targeted Russian ammunition depots in an attempt to stall Russia's operations on the front line.
Despite being regularly outgunned by Russian forces since the start of the full-scale war, Ukraine has managed to progress in arms production, with the country producing about 33-34% of its annual weapons needs — up from less than 10% before the full-scale invasion, President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Jan. 15. Europe and the U.S. supply more than 60% of Ukraine’s weaponry, with each accounting for about 30%.
Ukraine developing its own air defense system.
Earlier in his interview, Syrskyi said that Ukraine is working on developing its own air defense systems, including ones that can repel the the Oreshnik missile.
"This encourages us to create our own air defense system, which would be not just an air defense system, but also an anti-missile system," Syrskyi said. "The work is underway, it is being actively pursued in this direction. I hope that we will soon get the desired result for us," he added.
"Back in Soviet times, we actually produced all the control systems for anti-aircraft systems. That is, we have the capacities and capabilities to create, and we are working on creating our own domestic air defense complex," Syrskyi told TSN.
Ukraine aims to spend a record $35 billion on weapons production in 2025, according to Defense Minister Rustem Umerov. The Ukrainian government intends to provide $17 billion, while the rest may be financed by allies.
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