THE RUSSO-UKRAINE WAR BRIEF
For: 25-01-24
Slava Ukraini! In early 2022 I began a Telegram channel aggregating news from a number of sources daily on the war in Ukraine. In June 2023 I began providing a daily draft for the Ukraine War Brief Podcast collecting news from over 70 sources daily, which formed the basis of the script. While the Podcast no longer exists I have continued to make this Brief available for my followers here on Substack for those who wish to keep up with the news from the war.
All the latest news on the Russo-Ukraine War 6 days per week
ALONG THE CONTACT LINE
GSAFU Morning Report
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in its Operational Information update at 08:00 on Jan 24 stated that day 1066 of the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation against Ukraine had begun.
The situation on the line of combat remains tense in some sectors. Ukrainian defenders continue to actively counteract the Russian aggressor, causing them losses in personnel equipment and technology. Exhausting the enemy along the entire front line and continuing to disrupt the plans of Russian occupiers to advance deeper into the territory of Ukraine.
During the past day, 125 combat engagements took place.
Over the past 24 hours, the enemy carried out 2 missile strikes, 58 air strikes, used 2,261 drones and fired approximately 5000 artillery shells across the positions of Ukrainian forces and civilians.
Air Force Daily Report
25 ENEMY UAVS SHOT DOWN, 27 DRONES FAILED TO REACH THEIR TARGETS (LOCATIONALLY LOST)
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On the night of January 24, 2025 (from 9:00 p.m. on January 23), the enemy attacked with 58 Shahed attack UAVs and simulator drones of various types from the directions: Orel, Kursk, Bryansk, Primorsko-Akhtarsk - Russia.
The air attack was repelled by anti-aircraft missile troops, electronic warfare units, and mobile fire groups of the Air Force and Defense Forces of Ukraine.
As of 09:00, it was confirmed that 25 Shahed attack UAVs and other types of drones were shot down in Sumy, Kyiv, Chernihiv, Cherkasy, Zhytomyr, Khmelnytskyi, and Lviv regions.
27 enemy drones-simulators - lost in location (without negative consequences).
Unfortunately, as a result of the enemy strike in the Kyiv and Chernihiv regions, people were injured, there were fatalities... Apartment buildings and private houses, cars were hit. Special services are eliminating the consequences, and assistance is being provided to the victims.
Combat Operations in the Russian Federation
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a US based think tank, in its Jan 23 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment reported that Russian forces recently advanced in the Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast amid continued fighting in the area on Jan 23. Geolocated footage published on Jan 22 indicates that Russian forces recently advanced southeast of Tolstiy Lug (northwest of Sudzha). Russian forces reportedly continued attacks northwest of Sudzha near Pogrebki, Nikolskiy, and Krugkenkoye; and south of Sudzha near Kurilovka and Guyevo.
A Ukrainian reconnaissance group commander operating in Kursk Oblast reported on January 22 that Russian forces only attack during the day in this direction and usually conduct infantry assaults without equipment.
The Khortytsia operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the northeastern part of Ukraine. )
Toretsk Sector: Russian forces recently advanced in northern Toretsk and southwest of the town amid ongoing offensive operations near Toretsk on Jan 23. Geolocated footage published on Jan 23 indicates that Russian forces recently marginally advanced at the Toretska Mine in northern Toretsk and advanced west of Nelipivka (southwest of Toretsk).
The Tavria operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the central-eastern and southeastern part of Ukraine.)
Pokrovsk Sector : Russian forces recently advanced southwest of Pokrovsk amid continued offensive operations in the area on January 23. Geolocated footage published on January 22 indicates that Russian forces recently advanced north of Novoyelyzavetivka (southwest of Pokrovsk).
Russian army failing to outflank Pokrovsk
The Russian army is failing to outflank Pokrovsk in Donetsk Oblast in an attempt to cut off the town's logistics routes, The Kyiv Independent reports citing a spokesperson for Ukraine's Khortytsia group of forces, Viktor Trehubov, on Jan. 24 on national television.
The area near Pokrovsk, a crucial logistics hub for Ukrainian forces, has been the focus of fierce fighting for months as Russia intensifies its offensive in Donetsk Oblast.
Russian forces are trying to bypass Pokrovsk from the north and south, but so far without success, according to the spokesperson.
"So far, these attempts have been more or less effectively repelled. They have begun to attack the town more actively with long-range, different types of missiles and FPV (first-person-view) drones," Trehubov said.
"Unfortunately, they are hitting the town, but their plan to surround it is still very far from realization," he added.
Trehubov stressed that the Pokrovsk sector of the front line is the primary vector of Russia's offensive.
"This is the main point of concentration of their efforts, and it has been for a long time. There is the largest number of clashes there," he said.
Russian troops are continuing to push on the Lyman, Siversk, Kramatorsk, Toretsk, Pokrovsk and Kurakhove axes, according to Ukraine's General Staff. Pokrovsk and Kurakhove remain the focal points of the Russian eastern offensive, now in its fifth month.
Ukraine previously blew up the No. 3 mine's shaft in the village of Pishchane near Pokrovsk to prevent Russia from deploying its troops closer to the front-line town, according to The New York Times (NYT)
Earlier this month, Metinvest announced it had suspended operations at the Pokrovsk coking coal mine due to worsening security conditions and power outages.
Velyka Novosilka Sector: Russian forces are intensifying offensive operations aimed at seizing Velyka Novosilka. Ukraine's Khortytsia Group of Forces reported that Russian forces have launched over 80 attacks on Velyka Novosilka within the past day.
Khortytsia Group of Forces Spokesperson Major Viktor Trehubov stated on January 23 that Russian forces have not completely encircled Ukrainian forces in the Velyka Novosilka area but noted there is a risk of Russian forces encircling Ukrainian forces in the area.
Trehubov also noted that the rivers near Velyka Novosilka – likely referring to the Mokri Yaly, Kashlahach, and Shaitanka rivers – are complicating the Ukrainian military's ability to maneuver in the area. Russian milbloggers, including a Kremlin-affiliated milblogger, claimed that Russian forces advanced along the T-0518 Pavlivka-Velyka Novosilka highway in central Velyka Novosilka, cut the settlement in half, and encircled a small Ukrainian group in southern Velyka Novosilka.
Russian forces continued attacking near Velyka Novosilka itself, just west of Velyka Novosilka near Vremivka, and southwest of Velyka Novosilka near Novodarivka on January 22 and 23.
Trehubov stated on Jan 24 that Ukrainian commander-in-chief Oleksandr Syrskyi is personally in the sector to decide on the most effective option to maintain control over the village and keep the situation under control.
The Odesa operational-strategic group
(Responsible for Kherson, Qırım, (also known as Crimea) and the Black Sea.)
There have been no major changes to the combat environment since our last report.
TEMPORARILY OCCUPIED TERRITORIES
Nothing major to report.
THE HOME FRONT
Russian attacks against Ukraine kill 6, injure 9 over the past day.
Russian attacks against Ukraine killed at least six people and injured at least nine over the past day, the Kyiv Independent reported citing regional authorities on Jan. 24.
Russia launched 58 Shahed-type attack drones and decoy drones against Ukraine overnight, the Air Force said.
Twenty-five drones were shot down over seven oblasts, while 27 were lost in the airspace without causing damage, according to the statement.
Drone attacks in Kyiv Oblast killed three civilians and injured a 26-year old man, the regional police department said. Two of the people killed in the attacks were a married couple in Brovary and another man in the Fastiv district, according to the State Emergency Service.
Russian attacks against Donetsk Oblast over the past day killed two people and injured five, Governor Vadym Filashkin reported.
Two civilians were killed and two injured in an attack against the city of Kostiantynivka, two were injured in Kramatorsk, and one in Pokrovsk, according to the statement.
In Kharkiv Oblast, a 54-year-old woman was killed in a drone attack against the village of Petropavlivka, Governor Oleh Syniehubov said.
Three civilians were injured in Russian attacks against Kherson Oblast, said the regional governor, Oleksandr Prokudin. Two apartment buildings and nine houses were damaged.
RUSSIAN WORLD
Massive Ukrainian drone strike targets Russian refinery, plants
The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) and Ukraine’s Special Operations Forces (SOS) struck the Ryazan Oil Refinery and the Ryazan Thermal Power Plant in an overnight drone strike on Jan. 24, the Kyiv Independent reported citing an SBU source.
The attack was later confirmed by the General Staff of Ukraine’s Armed Forces.
The news comes as Russia’s Defense Ministry reported intercepting 121 Ukrainian drones overnight, including 37 in Bryansk Oblast, 20 in Ryazan Oblast, and 17 in the Kursk and Saratov oblasts each.
The refinery, one of Russia’s largest, has the capacity of 17 million metric tons of oil per year. At least three oil depots and a workshop were set ablaze, according to the source.
The statement confirms earlier reports in Russian Telegram channels that the Ryazan Oil Refinery caught fire after a drone attack.
"SBU and SOS drones also targeted an oil pumping station at the Ryazan Thermal Power Plant," the source said, without revealing details on possible consequences. Local residents reported more than 50 explosions, according to the source.
Ryazan lies roughly 500 kilometers (310 miles) north of Ukraine’s border.
Drones also attacked the Kremniy EL microelectronics plant in Russia's Bryansk and other facilities in the city, the independent Telegram news channel Astra reported, citing Russian Emergencies Ministry sources.
It is not immediately clear whether the plant, which produces components for the Russian military, suffered significant damage in the attack. The drone strike also damaged windows and the facade of a building of the Investigative Committee, and the Institute of Management and Business caught fire, according to Astra.
The General Staff confirmed the attack against the Kremniy plant, without revealing details on possible damage.
Russian troops commit another war crime executing 6 prisoners.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a US based think tank, in its Jan 23 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment reported that Russian forces recently executed at least six unarmed Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs) in Donetsk Oblast. Ukrainian sources circulated footage on Jan 23 of Russian soldiers shooting unarmed Ukrainian POWs in an unspecified area of Ukraine. Ukrainian Human Rights Commissioner Dmytro Lyubinets and the Ukrainian Attorney General's Office reported on Jan 23 that Ukrainian officials are investigating social media footage of Russian forces executing six captured and unarmed Ukrainian servicemembers in an unspecified area of Donetsk Oblast. Lyubinets noted that the footage shows a seventh Ukrainian POW in this group but that it is unclear what happened to the seventh POW based on the footage. ISW has frequently reported that Russian forces are conducting frontline executions of Ukrainian POWs and continues to assess that Russian military commanders are either complicit in or enabling their subordinates to conduct these executions.
INTERNATIONAL NEWS
Friedrich Merz to prioritize Ukrainian victory if elected German chancellor
Ukraine's victory in its war against Russia will be a top priority if Friedrich Merz wins the upcoming elections in February 2025, the German chancellor candidate said during a speech in Berlin on Jan. 23, federal broadcaster New Voice reports citing DW.
"For Ukraine, I believe the main answer is that it must win this war," the leader of the opposition CDU/CSU bloc stated.
He outlined that victory entails restoring Ukraine's territorial integrity with a democratically legitimate government exercising state sovereignty and the full freedom to choose political and military alliances.
"Russia must no longer see any chances of successfully continuing this war militarily," the German politician said.
Merz noted that Ukraine must be "strong enough" to "effectively defend itself against Russian aggression."
However, he clarified that Germany should not become a party to the conflict. He believes that Ukraine should be supported with all necessary diplomatic, financial, humanitarian, and military means.
During a visit to Kyiv on Dec. 9, 2024, Merz proposed forming a contact group of four countries (France, Poland, the United Kingdom, Germany) to develop a common position on ending the war initiated by Russia against Ukraine.
Merz also confirmed his willingness to provide Ukraine with long-range weapons. However, he later specified that he would supply Ukraine with long-range Taurus missiles only after consultations with the United States.
MILITARY & TECH
Gravehawk SAM: The UK’s new air defence system for Ukraine
On Jan 16, it was announced that Ukraine will receive Gravehawk surface-to-air missile (SAM) systems from the UK. However, details about these systems are scarce, with most information coming from a UK Ministry of Defense statement. Based on available data and logical assumptions, here’s an analysis of what the Gravehawk SAM might be.
The Gravehawk is an anti-aircraft missile system whose urgent development was jointly funded by Britain and Denmark.
Two Gravehawk prototypes have reportedly already been tested in Ukraine. This year, the UK plans to transfer 15 more units.
This is not a full-fledged new development, but rather a compilation of ready-made solutions based on air-to-air missiles.
This description includes the anti-aircraft missile systems that the UK has already transferred to Ukraine based on AIM-132 ASRAAM missiles, the launcher for which is mounted on the Supacat HMT chassis.
In its original design, the AIM-132 missile weighs 88 kg, is 2900 mm long, and has a body diameter of 166 mm.
When launched from an aircraft, such missiles typically have a range of up to 25 km. However, their range is significantly reduced when fired from ground-based launchers.
“The innovative system, the size of a shipping container, is capable of modernizing air-to-air missiles for ground-based air defense, i.e., using Ukrainian missiles already in service with their Armed Forces,” reads the UK Gov. statement.
This would imply the AIM-132 ASRAAM missile, which Ukraine has received from the UK, however in addition Ukraine is know to have domestically produced Soviet era R-27 missiles and it would appear the more modern R-73.The latter, for example, has been successfully integrated into the Osa SAM system with support from the Come Back Alive Foundation.
The focus is primarily on R-27 missiles, which exist in various configurations, including versions with semi-active radar and infrared homing systems. While there were efforts to develop variants featuring passive and active homing guidance, the outcomes of these initiatives remain unknown.
Sweden Prepares Largest Aid Package Since 2022
The Ministry of Defense of Ukraine reported on the results of a meeting between Deputy Minister of Defense of Ukraine Serhii Boiev and Brigadier General Johan Axelsson, Director of the Test and Evaluation Division of the FMV Swedish government agency.Defense Express reports.
During the meeting, Johan Axelsson stated that the Swedish government is expected to make a positive decision regarding the allocation of a new military assistance package to Ukraine. According to Johan Axelsson, this aid package will be the largest since the beginning of the full-scale invasion. It should be noted that Sweden has provided a total of 17 military assistance packages worth SEK 48.4 billion (EUR 4.2 billion). A total military support of SEK 75 billion (EUR 6.5 billion) is planned for 2025-2027.
The parties also agreed on the details of contracts for the production of military equipment, such as CV90 infantry fighting vehicles. They are supplied to Ukraine as part of orders from partners, and the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine plans to contract a batch of these infantry fighting vehicles on its own.
It was also announced that a partnership is planned to be established for the maintenance and repair of these armored vehicles in Ukraine. We are talking about close cooperation with BAE Systems Hägglunds, which is to open its facilities in Ukraine for this purpose.
It was reported that as a result of this meeting, an agreement was reached to develop a bilateral agreement to support the implementation of joint projects in the defense industry. Priority will be given to air defense systems, long-range weapons and ammunition. The meeting also addressed the issue of satellite communications for the Defense Forces of Ukraine.
It should be noted that the Swedish defense industry's assets include the RBS-70 man-portable air-defense system, which is already actively used in Ukraine and is being exported in a new mobile version, serving as an excellent replacement for the Strela-10 and Osa systems.
To detect air targets, the Swedish defense industry offers the Giraffe AMB radar, which is also in service with the Armed Forces of Ukraine. It is capable of detecting targets at a distance of up to 100 kilometers, and newer modifications can act as a counter-battery radar, detecting artillery positions at a distance of up to 80 kilometers.
Among the long-range capabilities, the RBS-15 anti-ship missile should be mentioned. Its more modern modifications can be used against ground targets at a distance of up to 200 kilometers. It should not be forgotten that the Swedish company Saab is involved in the production and modernization of Taurus cruise missiles.
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