THE RUSSO-UKRAINE WAR BRIEF
For: 2024-10-11
Slava Ukraini! In early 2022 I began a Telegram channel aggregating news from a number of sources daily on the war in Ukraine. In June 2023 I began providing a daily draft for the Ukraine War Brief Podcast collecting news from over 70 sources daily, much of which formed the basis of the script. While the Podcast no longer exists I have continued to make this Brief available both on my own Substack and The People’s Media for those who wish to keep up with events on a daily basis.
All the latest news on the Russo-Ukraine War 6 days per week
ALONG THE CONTACT LINE
GSAFU Morning Report
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in its Operational Information update at 22:00 on Oct 10 stated that day 961 of the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation against Ukraine was about to begin.
During the past day, 114 combat engagements took place. Over the past 24 hours, the enemy carried out 4 missile strikes, 45 air strikes, 635 drone strikes and more than 3,400 artillery strikes across the positions of Ukrainian forces.
At the same time, Ukrainian soldiers continue to inflict losses in manpower and equipment on the occupying troops, exhausting the enemy along the entire front line and continue to disrupt the plans of Russian occupiers to advance deep into the territory of Ukraine.
Air Force Daily Report
On the night of October 11, 2024, the enemy attacked Ukraine with an Iskander-M ballistic missile (launch area - TOT of Crimea), a Kh-31P guided air missile (from the airspace over the Black Sea), the 66th strike UAV (launch area - Kursk, Russian Federation).
Aviation, anti-aircraft missile forces, electronic warfare units and mobile fire groups of the Air Force and the Defense Forces of Ukraine were involved in repelling the air attack.
As of 11:00 a.m., as a result of anti-aircraft combat, 29 enemy UAVs were shot down in Kyiv, Cherkasy, Vinnytsia, Sumy, Poltava, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Chernihiv and Zhytomyr regions.
31 enemy drones were lost in various regions of Ukraine, presumably as a result of active anti-aircraft missile defence. Two strike UAVs were turned in the direction of Russia.
The Russian Border Incursion
Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations in Glushkovsky Raion west of the main Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast on October 10 but did not make confirmed advances in the area. Russian sources claimed that elements of the Russian 106th Airborne (VDV) Division repelled a Ukrainian attack near Veseloye (south of Glushkovo).
Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations in the main Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast southeast of Korenevo near Lyubimovka and east of Korenevo near Kamyshevka on October 10 but did not make confirmed advances in the area.
Russian forces recently advanced in the main Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast. Geolocated footage published on October 7 indicates that Russian forces recently marginally advanced in eastern Obukhovka (southeast of Korenevo). The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that unspecified Russian VDV forces seized Pokrovskiy (south of Korenevo).
A Russian milblogger claimed that elements of the Russian 155th Naval Infantry Brigade (Pacific Fleet, Eastern Military District [EMD]) advanced into Zeleniy Shlyakh (southeast of Korenevo) and several Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces seized Novaya Sorochina (north of Sudzha). A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces advanced near Cherkasskaya Konopelka (southeast of Sudzha). ISW has not observed visual evidence confirming these claims, however.
Russia launched new counterattack in Kursk Oblast
Russian forces launched a new counterattack against Ukraine's left flank in Russia's Kursk Oblast, several Russian and Ukrainian Telegram channels claimed on Oct. 10. The Kyiv Independent reports.
A Ukrainian official commented that the "Russian plan in Kursk Oblast has been thwarted so far" as Russian forces suffered losses.
"No details yet, but the Russian military suffered significant losses in equipment," said Andrii Kovalenko, the head of the counter-disinformation department at Ukraine's National Security and Defense Council.
"The enemy is now trying to establish a foothold near the settlements of Novoivanovka and Zeleny Shliakh," DeepState said on Telegram. The two settlements lie some 15 kilometres from the Ukrainian-held Russian town of Sudzha and around 10 kilometres north of the Ukrainian border.
Parallel messages also appeared on Russian pro-war channels. The well-known Rybar channel wrote that Russian forces launched several attacks in the Korenevsky and Sudzhansky districts, in which Ukraine established its foothold.
"The advanced groups of Russian troops reached Zeleny Shliakh by the end of the day, which allows us to claim at least a partial breakthrough in the Ukrainian Armed Forces' defences," Rybar claimed on Oct. 10.
Russia's Defense Ministry alleged late on Oct. 10 that its forces had "penetrated" into the Ukrainian-held territory in Kursk Oblast and inflicted losses on manpower and equipment.
Later, on Oct. 11, DeepState reported that the situation in the area remains difficult, but Ukrainian forces are succeeding in stabilising it. According to the channel, it was not yet possible to regain all the lost territory, but Russian forces suffered significant losses in the attack.
Russia has redeployed 50,000 troops to Kursk Oblast, Syrskyi claims
Russia has transferred around 50,000 soldiers from other sectors of the front to Kursk Oblast, The Kyiv Independent reported citing claims made by Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi on Oct. 10, more than two months after the start of Kyiv's incursion.
"We know about roughly 50,000 soldiers from other sectors who were transferred to the Kursk direction," Syrskyi said in a documentary aired on national television.
Ukraine launched the offensive into Kursk Oblast in early August, claiming to have seized up to 1,300 square kilometres (500 square miles) and 100 settlements.
The Ukrainian leadership said that one of the key goals of the operation was to divert Russian forces from Ukrainian battlefields. Syrskyi's figure is an increase from President Volodymyr Zelensky's estimation from Sept. 19, when he said that 40,000 troops had been diverted to the Kursk sector.
According to Syrskyi, the redeployment weakened Russian positions in other areas, namely in the Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, and Kramatorsk sectors.
"This, of course, made it easier for us to conduct defensive operations," he noted.
The Khortytsia operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the northeastern part of Ukraine. )
Kharkiv Sector: Over the last day Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 4 Russian attacks near Vovchansk and Tykhe.
Kupyansk Sector: Russian Forces carried out 12 offensive actions against Ukrainian defensive positions near Synkivka, Stepova Novoselivka, Kolsynkivk, and Lozova. 5 engagements continue.
Lyman Sector: Russian Forces carried out 30 offensive actions against Ukrainian defensive positions near Druzhelyubivka, Hrekivka, Makiivka, Nevske, Novosadove, Torske and the Serebryanskyy Forest. 4 engagements continue.
Siversk Sector: Russian forces carried out 4 unsuccessful assaults in the vicinity of Verkhnokamianske.
Kramatorsk Sector: Russian forces carried out 7 offensive actions near Orikhovo-Vasylivka, Chasiv Yar, Stupochky. 1 engagement continues. The situation is under control.
Toretsk Sector: Russian forces carried out 10 offensive actions with air support near Toretsk and Shcherbynivka. 3 engagements continue.
The Tavria operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the central-eastern and southeastern part of Ukraine.)
Pokrovsk Sector : The main efforts of the enemy over the last day focused in this direction. Russian forces conducted 18 attacks against Ukrainian defences in the vicinity of Kalynove, Myrolyubivka, Promin, Krutnyi Yar, Lysivka and Selydove. 1 engagement is ongoing.
Kurakhove Sector: Russian forces conducted 15 attacks against Ukrainian defences in the vicinity of Tsukuryne, Kreminna Balka, Novoselydivka, Heorhiivka, Konstantinivka and Antonivka. 2 engagements continue.
Vremivka Sector: Russian forces made 9 assaults against Ukrainian positions near Bohoyavlenka.
Orikhiv Sector: Russian forces made 2 unsuccessful attempts to advance against Ukrainian positions near Mala Tokmachka and Robotyne.
The Odesa operational-strategic group
(Responsible for Kherson, Qırım, (also known as Crimea) and the Black Sea.)
Prydniprovsk Sector: In this sector, over the last day, Russian forces made 4 unsuccessful attempts to force Ukrainian units from their positions on the left bank of the Dnipro.
TEMPORARILY OCCUPIED TERRITORIES
Fire at Crimea Oil Terminal is finally under control 5 Days After Ukraine Strike
A jet fire at a major oil terminal in the port city of Feodosia in Russian-annexed Crimea has been put out five days after Ukrainian missile strikes there, its Russian-installed Mayor Igor Tkachenko said Friday. New Voice reports.
“As of 8 a.m. there’s no jet fire on the territory of the oil terminal,” Tkachenko wrote on Telegram, saying “the situation has stabilised and is fully under control.”
“Emergency services and our municipal enterprises are continuing emergency recovery work. It will continue until complete liquidation,” Tkachenko added.
His assurances come hours after Crimea’s Russian-installed Governor Sergei Aksyonov reported a “release of combustible materials” overnight after residents said they heard an explosion.
Ukraine’s military said Monday its missile forces had carried out a successful strike on the Feodosia offshore oil terminal, the largest on the Crimean peninsula in the Black Sea. More than 1,100 people were evacuated as the flames spread to more than 2,500 square metres.
Media reports linked the oil terminal to President Vladimir Putin’s university friend Viktor Khmarin, who was said to be the beneficiary of a company that bought it in 2019 after its nationalisation by Russia’s occupational authorities.
THE HOME FRONT
Russian attacks against Ukraine kill 6, injure 27 over past day
Russian attacks across Ukraine killed at least six people and injured at least 27 over the past day, regional authorities reported early on Oct. 11. The Kyiv Independent reported
Russia launched a ballistic missile attack against the Odesa district, killing at least four people, including a 16-year-old girl, Governor Oleh Kiper reported early on Oct. 11.
Ten people were injured, nine of whom are hospitalised. Four victims are in serious condition.
A two-story building where residents lived and worked was destroyed in the attack. Three people – a 16-year-old girl, a 43-year-old woman, and a 22-year-old man – were killed during the attack. Another woman died in the hospital due to severe injuries, Kiper said.
Russia has recently ramped up attacks against the southern Odesa Oblast, targeting port infrastructure and damaging several civilian vessels. One such strike against the Odesa district took place on Oct. 9, hitting a Panama-flagged civilian ship and killing eight people.
Ports in and near Odesa are a key hub for Ukrainian agricultural exports via the Black Sea. Ukraine opened a new maritime shipping corridor last August after Russia pulled from Turkey- and U.N.-mediated Black Sea deal.
Meanwhile In Kharkiv Oblast, a 64-year-old woman was killed in an attack against the village of Kruhliakivka, and a 77-year-old man was injured during a strike on Kupiansk, according to Governor Oleh Syniehubov.
Russian attacks against Donetsk Oblast killed one person in Novoselydivka, injured two in Myrnohrad, and two others in Lyman and Yampil, Governor Vadym Filashkin reported.
Five people suffered shock during an attack against the village of Cherkaska Lozova.
A critical infrastructure facility, a car centre, a gas station, and other buildings were targeted. An ambulance, a trolley bus, and other vehicles were also damaged.
Russia launched an Iskander-M missile against a critical infrastructure facility in Mykolaiv on Oct. 10, injuring two women aged 59 and 52 and a 57-year-old man, Governor Vitalii Kim reported.
A fire that broke out was promptly extinguished, and four apartment buildings and one house were damaged.
Six people were injured during a Russian attack against Zaporizhzhia on Oct. 10, regional authorities said.
RUSSIAN WORLD
Consumer Goods Giant Unilever Finally Exits Russia
British consumer goods giant Unilever on Thursday completed the sale of Unilever Russia, finally joining other multinationals in exiting the country following its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. The Moscow Times reports.
Unilever said in a statement that it had offloaded the subsidiary to Arnest Group, a Russian manufacturer of perfume, cosmetics and household products, for an undisclosed amount.
Unilever said its business in Russia's close ally Belarus was included in the sale.
"The completion of the sale ends Unilever Russia's presence in the country," Unilever chief executive Hein Schumacher said in Thursday's statement.
He added that the sale "includes all of Unilever's business in Russia and its four factories in the country."
While strongly condemning Moscow's invasion of Ukraine, Unilever joined other multinationals that decided to maintain operations in Russia, triggering widespread criticism.
Kyiv's response had been to place Unilever on Ukraine's "International Sponsors of War" list.
While many other foreign firms exited Russia, Unilever insisted on a need to keep supplying consumers in Russia with food and hygiene products made in the country.
NEWS WORLDWIDE
Russian spy scandal shows Ireland is Europe’s soft underbelly.
Dublin's storied pubs this week were buzzing with salacious gossip about a politician compromised by a Russian honeytrap. But the real issue is Ireland's incredible vulnerability to espionage and other forms of influence. The Moscow Times reports.
Russian intelligence used a strikingly beautiful female agent to recruit the politician, codenamed “Cobalt”, as an agent aiming to – among other things – undermine relations between Britain, Ireland and the EU during Brexit negotiations.
However, while the public was shocked, Ireland’s Prime Minister Simon Harris said reports of a mole in the Irish parliament being recruited by Russian intelligence was not a surprise to him.
Starting in 2022, state security officials tried to alert the politician about Russia's recruitment efforts. But he allegedly laughed off the warning and ignored both police and military intelligence.
Although investigators have found no evidence that “Cobalt” was paid for his cooperation, they suspect he may have been personally compromised. It is possible that embarrassing material was discovered in his internet history while travelling abroad, particularly in areas where Russian spies operate freely.
Intelligence officials have also long suspected the politician of working for Russia. Sergey Prokopiev, a high-ranking intelligence operative at the Russian Embassy in Dublin, is reported to have led the operation that recruited him.
The parliamentarian is reported to have offered to facilitate connections between the Prokopiev and paramilitaries in Northern Ireland during Brexit negotiations. This is despite his lack of public or private political engagement with paramilitaries.
Some security insiders believe “Cobalt” is still connected to the Russians. But he cannot be arrested or charged due to not having committed a crime.
On Oct 9 The Irish Independent published an article in which a number of high profile IIrish political figures denied that they were “Cobalt”
Politicians in the Dail lower house and the Seanad upper house have been tripping over themselves to rule themselves out as Cobalt. Peadar Tóibín, leader of the Aontú party, also revealed that he had received an offer from a female consultant to fly out to Moscow to stay in a five-star hotel for a business forum and a chance to meet Putin.
Cathal Berry, a former army chief who now sits in the Dail’s backbenches, claimed Ireland is “a playground” for Russian spies due to its extensive assets and lackadaisical security culture.
Putin cements ties with Iranian president in Central Asia meeting
Russia's Vladimir Putin held talks with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian on Friday in Turkmenistan, where the two leaders hailed their countries growing economic ties and similar views on world affairs, an entente viewed with concern by the U.S. Reuters reports.
At odds with Washington and the European Union over Russia's war in Ukraine, something he casts as part of a wider existential struggle against an arrogant and self-interested West - Putin is keen to deepen ties with what he calls the Global East and Global South.
Putin, whose country is hosting a summit of the BRICS nations in Kazan on Oct. 22-24, invited Pezeshkian to come to Russia on an official visit, a proposal the Iranian leader accepted according to Russia's state RIA news agency.
"Economically and culturally, our communications are being strengthened day by day and becoming more robust," Pezeshkian was cited as telling Putin by Iran's official IRNA news agency.
"The growing trend of cooperation between Iran and Russia, considering the will of the top leaders of both countries, must be accelerated to strengthen these ties," he said.
Pezeshkian last month committed his country to deeper ties with Russia to counter Western sanctions. The two countries say they are close to signing a strategic partnership agreement, something Pezeshkian said on Friday he hoped could be finalised at the BRICS summit in Russia later this month.
The United States regards Moscow's growing relationship with Tehran with concern. It has accused Iran of supplying Russia with ballistic missiles for use in the conflict in Ukraine, something Tehran has denied.
MILITARY & TECH
Ukraine set to receive up to 20 Mirage 2000-5F fighter jets from France
Ukraine is set to receive between 12 and 20 Mirage 2000-5F fighter jets from France as part of military aid in 2025, according to a report by Avions Legendaires on Oct. 9.
French Defense Minister Sébastien Lecornu aims to organize the deliveries to Ukraine during the first quarter of 2025, from Jan. 1 to March 30, 2025.
Before the delivery, French experts will ensure the operational retraining of pilots and the qualification enhancement of mechanics and armament specialists. It is currently unknown whether the batch of aircraft supplied to Ukraine will include one or more two-seater Mirage 2000B jets. Additionally, one of the main modifications to be introduced is the capability for the Mirage to carry and launch SCALP-EG (Storm Shadow) cruise missiles, which are already in service with the Ukrainian Air Force.
Later, the newspaper Le Monde reported that the French Air and Space Force committed to training 26 Ukrainian military pilots over two years. The newspaper also mentioned that Ukrainian pilots are training on Alpha Jet fighters, not F-16s.
French Defense Minister Sébastien Lecornu confirmed on Oct. 8 that France would deliver Western Mirage 2000 fighter jets to Ukraine by March 2025.
The Mirage 2000 fighter jets could form a new brigade in the Ukrainian Air Force, which would fight alongside the battle-hardened 7th Tactical Aviation Brigade, Forbes reported on Oct. 9.
High-Speed Combat Boats Strengthen Ukraine’s Special Forces at the Sea
In June 2024, the Defense Intelligence of Ukraine received a significant boost to their naval capabilities with the acquisition of Swedish CB-90 ships. Purchased for 165 million hryvnias as part of the Steel Front initiative led by Metinvest, these versatile amphibious assault ships have quickly become integral to the operations of Ukraine’s special forces. Defense Express reports.
The CB-90 boat, known as Drakar by Ukrainian forces in homage to Viking ships, measures 14.9 metres in length and 3.8 metres in width, reaching impressive speeds of up to 43 knots. The vessel can carry 4.5 tons of cargo or accommodate 21 fully equipped assault troops, making it highly adaptable for various combat and logistical operations.
Heavily armed, the Drakar boat features mounts for machine guns and grenade launchers, with the ability to carry light anti-ship missiles, naval mines, and depth charges. Its flexibility makes it suitable for roles ranging from landing operations and sea surveillance to fire support and evacuation missions. The boats’ armour offers protection from bullets and shrapnel, further enhancing the crew’s safety during operations.
Ukrainian crews received specialised training in Sweden to master the boat’s high speed, manoeuvrability, and multifunctional use. Commander Serhii of the Viking naval centre emphasised the Drakar boat’s importance, noting its ability to transport personnel, cargo, and ammunition, all while being able to complete missions within a range of 300 nautical miles.
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