THE RUSSO-UKRAINE WAR BRIEF
For: 2024-11-06
Slava Ukraini! In early 2022 I began a Telegram channel aggregating news from a number of sources daily on the war in Ukraine. In June 2023 I began providing a daily draft for the Ukraine War Brief Podcast collecting news from over 70 sources daily, much of which formed the basis of the script. While the Podcast no longer exists I have continued to make this Brief available both on my own Substack and The People’s Media for those who wish to keep up with events on a daily basis.
All the latest news on the Russo-Ukraine War 6 days per week
ALONG THE CONTACT LINE
GSAFU Morning Report
GSAFU Morning Report
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in its Operational Information update at 22:00 on Nov 5 stated that day 977 of the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation against Ukraine was about to begin.
During the past day, 131 combat engagements took place. Over the past 24 hours, the enemy carried out 2 missile strikes, 71 air strikes, 569 drone strikes and more than 3,000 artillery strikes across the positions of Ukrainian forces.
At the same time, Ukrainian soldiers continue to inflict losses in manpower and equipment on the occupying troops, exhausting the enemy along the entire front line and continue to disrupt the plans of Russian occupiers to advance deep into the territory of Ukraine.
Russia gains 490 sq. kilometres of Ukrainian territory in October
Russia seized 490 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory in October, the largest gain since the start of the Russian counteroffensive in October 2023, New Voice reports citing DeepState.
The occupied area has steadily increased since July 2024, with 405 square kilometers seized in September.
However, experts warn that territory gained is not the only metric for military effectiveness, noting that Russia is improving its tactics, training, and reducing costly assaults.
Reports also indicated Russia made significant territorial gains in eastern Ukraine, surpassing previous 2024 totals.
Air Force Daily Report
On the night of November 6, 2024 (from 20:00 on November 5), the enemy attacked Odesa with two Kh-59 and Kh-31P guided air missiles from the Black Sea, and also launched 63 Shahed-type attack UAVs and unspecified drones from directions Bryansk, Primorsko-Akhtarsk, Orel - Russian Federation, Chauda - Crimea.
The air attack was repulsed by anti-aircraft missile troops, aviation, electronic warfare units, mobile fire groups of the Air Force and the Defense Forces of Ukraine.
As of 07:30, the downing of 38 enemy UAVs in Odesa, Mykolaiv, Kyiv, Sumy, Kirovohrad, Zhytomyr, Cherkasy, Chernihiv and Zaporizhia regions has been confirmed.
20 enemy drones were lost by location in different regions of Ukraine, two more – in the airspace of Ukraine.
Combat work continues!
The Russian Border Incursion
Limited fighting continued in the Ukrainian Kursk Oblast salient on Nov 5, but neither Ukrainian nor Russian forces made claimed or confirmed advances. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that Russian forces repelled Ukrainian counterattacks near Darino, Nizhny Klin, and Novoivanovka (all southeast of Korenevo) and in the directions of Leonidovo (southeast of Koreveno) and Plekhovo (southeast of Sudzha).
A Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces are holding onto positions near Novoivanovka and bringing fresh troops to counterattack in the area. Elements of the Russian 51st Airborne (VDV) Regiment (106th VDV Division) reportedly continue operating near Darino.
Neither Russian nor Ukrainian sources reported fighting in Glushkovsky Raion (west of the main Ukrainian Kursk Oblast salient) on November 5. Elements of the Russian 106th VDV Division are reportedly operating near Novy Put (southwest of Glushkovo).
The Khortytsia operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the northeastern part of Ukraine. )
Kharkiv Sector: Over the last day Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 7 Russian attacks in the area of Starytsya and Vovchansk.
Kupyansk Sector: Russian Forces carried out 7 offensive actions against Ukrainian defensive positions mainly in the vicinity of Novoosynove and Lozova. 1 engagement continues.
Lyman Sector: Russian Forces carried out 9 offensive actions against Ukrainian defensive positions near Hrekivka, Novomykhailivka, Terny, Zarichne and Torske
Siversk Sector: Russian forces carried out 1 unsuccessful offensive action near Bilohorivka. The situation is under control.
Kramatorsk Sector: Russian forces carried out 2 unsuccessful offensive actions against Ukrainian defences in the vicinity of Orikhovo-Vasylivka.
Toretsk Sector: Russian forces carried out 1 offensive actions with air support near Toretsk.
The Tavria operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the central-eastern and southeastern part of Ukraine.)
Pokrovsk Sector : Russian forces conducted 31 attacks against Ukrainian defences concentrating in the vicinity of Promin, Krutnyi Yar, Lysivka, Novohrodivka, Hryhorivka and Selydove. 3 engagements continue.
Kurakhove Sector: Russian forces carried out 51 offensive actions in the vicinity of Novodmytrivka, Kreminna Balka, Novoselydivka, Vovchenka, Berestky, Illinka, Stepanivka, Hostre, Maksymilyanivka, Katerynivka and Antonivka and Yelyzavetivka. 24 engagements continue.
Vremivka Sector: Russian forces made 9 attempts to break through Ukrainian defences in the vicinity of Trudove and Kostiantynopolske. 1 engagement continues.
Orikhiv Sector: In this sector, over the last day, there has been no significant change in the combat environment. Russian forces carried out 1 offensive action in the vicinity of Orikhiv.
The Odesa operational-strategic group
(Responsible for Kherson, Qırım, (also known as Crimea) and the Black Sea.)
Prydniprovsk Sector: In this sector, over the last day, there has been no significant change in the combat environment. Russian forces made 3 unsuccessful attempts to dislodge Ukrainian units from their positions on the left bank of the Dnipro.
TEMPORARILY OCCUPIED TERRITORIES
Nothing major to report.
THE HOME FRONT
Russian attacks against Ukraine injure 37, kill 9 over past day
Russian attacks against Ukraine killed nine civilians and wounded 37, including a child, over the past day, regional authorities reported on Nov. 6. The Kyiv Independent reports.
Russia launched 63 Shaheds and other drones overnight, as well as two Kh-59 and Kh-31P guided missiles. Ukrainian air defences shot 38 drones over nine regions while 22 were "lost" during the attacks, the Air Force said.
Two women, aged 56 and 72, were injured in the city of Kharkiv as a result of a drone strike, Kharkiv Oblast Governor Oleh Syniehubov reported.
According to the governor, three men aged 40, 47, and 60 years were injured following a Russian strike on a warehouse in the village of Kapytolivka. In Hlushkivka, a man and a woman aged 48 years were killed in Russian attacks.
Five people were injured in Kherson Oblast following Russian strikes on infrastructure facilities, administrative buildings, and residential areas, Governor Oleksandr Prokudin reported on his Telegram channel.
Seven people were killed and 25 wounded as a result of a Russian missile attack on Zaporizhzhya, regional authorities reported.
The Russian military attacked the town of Ochakiv, wounding a 13-year-old girl and a 39-year-old woman, Mykolaiv Oblast regional Governor Vitalii Kim reported on his Telegram channel.
RUSSIAN WORLD
Ukraine hits Russian naval base in Dagestan for first time
Ukraine's military intelligence was behind a drone attack against the city of Kaspiysk in Russia's Dagestan Republic, targeting a Russian naval base, the Kyiv Independent reported on Nov. 6 citing a source in the agency.
At least two vessels – missile ships Tatarstan and Dagestan – were damaged in the attack, and possibly also several small Project 21631 ships, sources said.
Dagestan authorities reported intercepting a drone attack over Kaspiysk, a port city at the Caspian Sea around 1,000 kilometres from the front line (600 miles), on the morning of Nov. 6.
Andrii Kovalenko, the head of the counter-disinformation centre at Ukraine's National Security and Defense Council, also said on Telegram that a Russian naval base was hit in the attack.
"Russian Navy ships are stationed in Kaspiysk," he said. The base is home to Russia's Caspian Flotilla, as well as Russian Marines and Coastal Troops.
Sources said that the targeted fleet was involved in strikes against Ukraine, and the 177th Marine Regiment stationed there was deployed in combat in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.
While Russian authorities claimed to have intercepted a single drone in the skies, a video shared on social media appears to show another drone hitting its target, resulting in a large explosion.
The incident took place roughly 15 kilometres from a local airport, the Mash news channel claimed, identifying the drone as a Ukrainian A-22 Flying Fox drone.
The nearby Makhachkala airport has suspended operations for an indefinite period due to the incident, local authorities said.
INTERNATIONAL NEWS
Delay in ASC 890 aircraft transfer to Ukraine revealed
Aviation expert Kostiantyn Kryvolap, in a comment to RBC-Ukraine, stated that the delay in the delivery of the ASC 890 Airborne Early Warning (AEW) aircraft, known as the Saab 340, is not directly linked to Sweden. Approval from the United States is required. RBC-Ukraine reports.
"Without the Americans, none of this (aircraft transfer) will happen because it contains a significant amount of American-made equipment. The aircraft is Swedish, but it has a lot of American equipment. So without the consent of the Americans—and I haven't heard that they’ve agreed to transfer the Saab 340 to us—this isn’t going anywhere," the expert said.
In other words, according to him, Sweden’s announcement doesn’t mean the deal is sealed.
"We thank the Swedes for opening the gate, but now it’s up to the Americans. And this is where things get uncomfortable," the expert added.
To support his statement, Kryvolap recalled that Poland purchased two such Saab 340s a few years ago and integrated them in nearly a year and a half.
"When the Swedes said they were ready to transfer two Saab 340s, it was initially announced that training would take about six months and that they were prepared for delivery. Then, Biden's interesting message suggested that one aircraft would be sufficient instead of two. I won’t comment on my reaction—it was quite surprising," the expert shared.
In May, it was reported that Ukraine would receive its first ASC 890 Airborne Early Warning (AEW) aircraft. At that time, the Swedish government announced the upcoming transfer of the ASC 890, also known as the Saab 340 AEW&C or the S-100B Argus.
However, it was expected that the transfer wouldn’t happen soon. Experts say these aircraft could significantly enhance Ukraine's air defence capabilities.
Biden's foreign policy missteps weakened the West and undermined Harris' path to the presidency
Biden’s presidency may ultimately be remembered for failing to lead with clarity, allowing his ego and missteps on foreign policy to jeopardise both U.S. democracy and Western stability. The Kyiv Independent wrote.
History will likely judge U.S. President Joe Biden poorly. He set himself a singular mission: to save democracy. But the risk is that his own ego may have jeopardised that very cause — not only in the U.S. but across the West.
Given his age, Biden was expected to be a one-term president. His task was to defeat then-U.S. President Donald Trump in 2020, then help cultivate a new bench of young leaders who could beat Trump in 2024. But the trappings of power and his own ego seemed to get the better of him before old age took hold, and by then, it was too late.
U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris struggled to shine during the 2020 primaries, and her 2024 presidential campaign was always an uphill battle. Her failure to present a clear agenda, beyond opposing Trump, ultimately cost her. She often appeared more focused on avoiding mistakes than on setting a strong vision for the country. Her economic platform was vague at best — at least with Trump, his goals on tariffs, immigration, deregulation, and energy were clear.
But Biden’s foreign policy also weighed heavily on Harris’ prospects. In fact, Biden’s foreign policy decisions have generally been disastrous.
First, the chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan undermined U.S. credibility, echoing past failures in Iraq and elsewhere.
Second, Biden's team underestimated the threat from Russian President Vladimir Putin and Russia, choosing to prioritise China. This almost signalled a green light to Putin, who saw weakness in the West and seized the opportunity to invade Ukraine. Biden’s fundamental misstep was in assessing China as the primary threat; while it may be a long-term concern, Russia presented the more immediate existential danger to Western liberal democracy.
Putin aims to destabilize and corrupt Western systems, while Xi Jinping seems content with the global status quo, which he believes will ultimately lead to Chinese dominance through globalization. The West had time to address China, but it might not survive if Putin went unchecked. Biden's team got the order of priorities wrong.
Third, Ukraine could have been a significant win for Biden. At various points during the war, Ukraine appeared poised for victory but needed sufficient funding and weapons from the West to secure it. However, Biden’s team consistently showed caution, while Putin’s so-called red lines proved more flexible than feared. Opportunities were missed, which only revitalized Putin’s campaign and cost countless Ukrainian lives, leading to a protracted war of attrition.
Instead of decisive leadership, U.S. policy often amounted to the "highest common denominator" approach — attempting to unite allies, but ultimately failing to provide Ukraine with enough support to secure a win. The country was given just enough aid to survive but not enough to prevail. There was a lack of cohesive, strategic thinking on Ukraine.
Fourth, the Middle East. U.S. National Security Advisor Chief Jake Sullivan’s ironic comments just before Oct. 7 — that the region was the calmest it had been in years — reflected the administration’s lack of foresight. The focus on the Abraham Accords was misguided and showed little understanding of the region. The administration’s failure to hold Israel accountable for its retaliatory actions following Oct. 7 also hurt Harris with Muslim voters. The U.S. seemed leaderless in the region, which may have resonated with voters back home.
In reality, on much of foreign policy, the U.S. has appeared leaderless — and so has the West.
Looking forward, there’s a nervousness about the incoming Trump administration. With Trump pulling support from Ukraine, Putin would likely regain the upper hand. In the Middle East, Trump’s policies would likely favour Israel even more strongly, heightening tensions with Iran. This could bring significant risks and challenges for Europe, with a U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran increasingly likely.
And this isn’t even considering the potential for further deterioration in U.S.-China relations if Trump returns to aggressive tariffs. It’s fair to wonder if any of this could be worse than the current trajectory under Biden — but many voters seem to have concluded it might not be, at least where foreign policy is concerned.
MILITARY & TECH
More Than 3,000 Russian Tanks Lost in Ukraine This Year
Since the beginning of the year, the Defense Forces of Ukraine have destroyed and damaged 3,179 tanks of the russian army Defense Express reports citing the Ministry of Defence.
According to a statement by the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, the Defenders of Ukraine have disabled 102 Russian tank battalions over the past 10 months. The tank battalion includes 31 tanks.
Russians lost the largest number of tanks on May 12. The units of the Defense Forces of Ukraine destroyed 31 Russian tanks that day. In a single day, the Russian army lost an entire tank battalion to destruction and damage.
"Such losses could cost the aggressor country's budget at least $9 billion. This is an approximate amount, estimated based on average global prices for this type of weapon (according to open sources)," the Defense Ministry of Ukraine noted.
In particular, $9 billion is about 16 annual budgets of Chelyabinsk city, which has the worst environmental situation in russia.
"At the same time, instead of addressing internal social issues, the leadership of the aggressor country continues to pour huge sums of money into the war," the statement reads.
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