THE RUSSO-UKRAINE WAR BRIEF
For: 2024-12-06
Slava Ukraini! In early 2022 I began a Telegram channel aggregating news from a number of sources daily on the war in Ukraine. In June 2023 I began providing a daily draft for the Ukraine War Brief Podcast collecting news from over 70 sources daily, which formed the basis of the script. While the Podcast no longer exists I have continued to make this Brief available for my followers here on Substack for those who wish to keep up with the news from the war. A version of this Brief will also be made available on The People’s Media Substack for those who should choose to subscribe there.
All the latest news on the Russo-Ukraine War 6 days per week
ALONG THE CONTACT LINE
GSAFU Morning Report
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in its Operational Information update at 22:00 on Dec 5 stated that day 1017 of the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation against Ukraine was about to begin.
During the past day, 170 combat engagements took place. Over the past 24 hours, the enemy carried out 2 missile strikes, 599 drone strikes and more than 3,200 artillery strikes across the positions of Ukrainian forces.
At the same time, Ukrainian soldiers continue to inflict losses in manpower and equipment on the occupying troops, exhausting the enemy along the entire front line and continue to disrupt the plans of Russian occupiers to advance deeper into the territory of Ukraine.
Another grim milestone for Russia and their seemingly unfeeling president Vladimir Putin as estimated Russian casualties since the start of their full scale invasion on Feb 24 2022 have surpassed three quarters of a million according to the GSAFU
Air Force Daily Report
On the night of Dec 6, 2024 (from 20:00 on Dec 5), the enemy attacked Ukraine with 53 attack UAVs of the "Shahed" type and other types of drones (launch area: Orel - Russian Federation).
As of 07:00, units of the anti-aircraft missile forces, EW and mobile fire groups of the Air Force and Defense Forces of Ukraine shot down 32 enemy UAVs in the Kharkiv, Poltava, Sumy, Chernihiv, Kyiv and Zhytomyr regions.
16 drones were lost in location, 2 — left the controlled airspace in the direction of Belarus.
The Russian Border Incursion
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a US based think tank, in its Dec 5 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment reported that Ukrainian forces recently advanced within the Ukrainian Kursk Oblast salient. Geolocated footage published on Dec 4 indicates that Ukrainian forces recently advanced into central Darino (southeast of Korenevo).
A Russian milblogger claimed on December 4 that Russian forces advanced near Malaya Loknya (north of Sudzha) and are clearing the area amid continued offensive operations in the northern Sudzhansky Raion. ISW has not yet observed confirmation of recent Russian advances north of Sudzha, however. Russian sources claimed on Dec 5 that Ukrainian forces are counterattacking southeast of Korenevo near Novoivanovka and Nikolayevo-Darino.
Elements of the Russian 56th VDV Regiment (7th VDV Division) and drone detachments of the 106th VDV Division reportedly continue to operate throughout Kursk Oblast; and elements of the 51st VDV Regiment (106th VDV Division) and the 104th VDV Regiment (76th VDV Division) are reportedly holding positions near Nikolayevo-Darino and Darino amid ongoing fighting
The Khortytsia operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the northeastern part of Ukraine. )
Kharkiv Sector: Over the last day Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 5 Russian attacks in the area of Tykhe.
Kupyansk Sector: Russian Forces carried out 5 offensive actions against Ukrainian defensive positions near Synkivka, Kruhlyakivka and Lozova.
Lyman Sector: Russian Forces carried out 15 offensive actions against Ukrainian defensive positions near Tverdokhlibove,Druzhelyubivka, Hrekivka, Terny, Yampolivka, Zarichne, Torske, the Serebryanskyy Forest and Bilohorivka. 1 engagement is ongoing.
Siversk Sector: In this sector, over the last day, there has been no significant change in the combat environment.
Kramatorsk Sector: Russian forces carried out 5 offensive actions against Ukrainian defences in the vicinity of Chasiv Yar, Stupochky and Predtechyne.
Toretsk Sector: Over the last day Russian forces carried out 6 offensive actions with air support near Toretsk and Nelipivka. 1 engagement continues.
The Tavria operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the central-eastern and southeastern part of Ukraine.)
Pokrovsk Sector : Over the last day in this sector, Russian Forces carried out 37 offensive actions against Ukrainian defensive positions in the vicinity of Myrolyubivka, Promin, Lysivka, Dachenske, Shevchenko, Novotroitske, Novopustynka, Zhovte and Pushkine. 1 engagement is ongoing.
Kurakhove Sector: Russia conducted 47 offensive actions in the vicinity of Zorya, Sontsivka, Stari Terny, Berestky, Kurakhove, Dalnje, Uspenivka, Hannivka, Romanivka and Yelyzavetivka.
Vremivka Sector: Russian forces made 35 attempts to break through Ukrainian defences in the vicinity of Novopil, Novodarivka, Makarivka, Rozlyv, Sukhi Yaly, and Kostiantynopolske.
Orikhiv Sector: Russian forces made 1 attempt to break through Ukrainian defences in the vicinity of Novodanilívka.
The Odesa operational-strategic group
(Responsible for Kherson, Qırım, (also known as Crimea) and the Black Sea.)
Prydniprovsk Sector: In this sector, over the last day, there has been no significant change in the combat environment. Russian forces made 3 unsuccessful attempts to dislodge Ukrainian units from their positions.
TEMPORARILY OCCUPIED TERRITORIES
There are reports of explosions and attacks in the area of the Kerch Bridge in Qirim. More on this tomorrow.
THE HOME FRONT
At least 10 Shahed-type drones veer into Belarus during overnight attack on Ukraine, monitoring group says
At least 10 Shahed-type drones strayed into Belarus during Russia's overnight drone attack on Ukraine on Dec. 6, Kyiv Independent reported citing the Belarusian Hajun monitoring group.
The drones reportedly crossed into Belarus from Russia, heading toward Homel, Loyew, and Mazyr. The incursions occurred at various intervals starting at 10:07 p.m. local time and continued through to the early morning hours.
The Belarusian Air Force did not respond to the incidents.
According to the Ukrainian Air Force, Russia launched 53 Shahed-type drones from Orel during the night of Dec. 6. Ukrainian Defense Forces destroyed 32, while 16 were "lost," and two flew into Belarusian airspace.
Belarus’ military confirmed in September that a drone had been downed over its territory for the first time since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion.
Despite multiple reported incidents of Shahed-type drones straying into Belarus, Minsk has not publicly criticized Moscow, its key ally.
Drone attacks involving Belarusian airspace have become increasingly frequent, the Belarusian Hajun monitoring group noted.
RUSSIAN WORLD
Russia's Aeroflot airline acquiring old planes to scrap for parts amid sanctions
Russia's largest airline Aeroflot plans to purchase five Boeing 737-800BCF freighters to disassemble for spare parts, The Kyiv Independent reported citing Russian state media outlet Kommersant on Dec. 6.
The planes are expected to be transferred to Aeroflot's low-cost subsidiary Pobeda, but converting them from cargo to passenger use under Western sanctions would be "unreasonably expensive," according to Kommersant's sources.
Instead, Aeroflot reportedly intends to remove the aircraft's engines, landing gear, avionics, and other critical components.
Western sanctions imposed after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine have heavily impacted the Russian aviation industry.
Many airlines have struggled to maintain operations without access to parts and support from Western manufacturers.
Approximately 30 Russian airlines, responsible for 26% of domestic passenger traffic, are at risk of bankruptcy in 2025, Izvestia reported on Nov. 13.
The financial strain stems partly from leasing disputes, with several airlines ceasing lease payments in 2022 following sanctions.
Hospitalized Russian Soldiers Protest Forced Return to Front
The Russian military is redeploying wounded soldiers to the front lines in Ukraine by force before they can complete medical treatment, The Moscow Times reported citing Telegram channel Ostorozhno, and Russian propaganda outlet Novosti earlier this week.
In a video address, the wounded soldiers accused their officers of trying to send them back to the combat zone before they completed their treatment, according to Ostorozhno, Novosti.
“They won’t let us finish anything,” one soldier said in the address. “They send a lot of people with hepatitis. Do they want the army to be infected or what?”
On Thursday, Ostorozhno, Novosti published videos showing the soldiers being escorted out of the hospital, some of them wearing handcuffs. One was shown handcuffed to his hospital bed.
The remaining soldiers were accused of desertion, the outlet cited their relatives as saying. It added that the soldiers were banned from going outside or using their electronic devices.
The Russian military has not publicly commented on the accusations.
Russia has faced heavy casualties since invading Ukraine in February 2022, and soldiers injured in battle are entitled to state benefits including financial compensation.
Officials say close to 98% of wounded Russian soldiers return to combat after undergoing medical treatment.
INTERNATIONAL NEWS
Romanian court cancels presidential election amid alleged Russian influence
Romania’s top constitutional court has annulled the country’s presidential election, after security services warned the vote had been distorted by a mass Russia-style influence campaign to favor a far-right candidate. Politico reports.
Ultranationalist independent presidential contender Călin Georgescu came from nowhere two weeks ago to win the first round of the election. But he benefited from a TikTok campaign that was similar to influence operations run by the Kremlin in Ukraine and Moldova, according to declassified Romanian intelligence documents.
On Friday, after receiving multiple requests, the court said in a statement that it “annuls the entire electoral process regarding the election of the president of Romania.”
The second round runoff was due to be held on Sunday. That will now not take place, the statement said.
EU demands Tik Tok explain Romanian intelligence data suggesting Moscow's election meddling
The European Union said Friday it sent TikTok an urgent request for more information about Romanian intelligence files suggesting that Moscow coordinated influencers on its platform to promote an election candidate who became the front-runner in the presidential election. The Economic Times reports.
The 27-nation bloc's executive branch is using its sweeping digital rulebook to scrutinize the video sharing platform's role in the election, which ended with the far-right populist Calin Georgescu coming from out of nowhere to take top spot in the first round of voting.
Declassified files released by Romanian authorities earlier this week suggest that a pro-Russia campaign used the messaging app Telegram to recruit thousands of TikTok users to promote Georgescu.
It is unclear from the intelligence release whether Georgescu was aware of the alleged campaign or assisted in it.
European Commission officials said they asked the video sharing platform to comment on the files and to provide information on actions that it's taking in response. It's the second time the commission has asked TikTok for information since the election's first round of voting on Nov. 24, and comes a day after it ordered the Chinese-owned platform to retain all election-related files and evidence
"We are concerned about mounting indications of coordinated foreign online influence operation targeting ongoing Romanian elections, especially on TikTok," Henna Virkkunen, the commission's executive vice-president for tech sovereignty, security and democracy, said in a post on X.
TikTok has 24 hours to respond to the EU request, officials told a press briefing in Brussels. Georgescu will face pro-EU reformist Elena Lasconi of the Save Romania Union party in a final vote on Sunday.
Georgescu's unexpected rise in the polls has plunged the European Union and NATO country into turmoil and spurred the authorities to release the files.
Romania's intelligence services alleged that one TikTok user paid $381,000 to influencers on the platform to promote content about Georgescu. They said they obtained information that "revealed an aggressive promotion campaign" to increase and accelerate the candidate's popularity.
Some of the thousands of social media accounts used in the campaign were allegedly created years ago but were only activated in the weeks leading up to the first round vote, the files indicated.
Biden Administration plans an avalanche of weapons to Ukraine before Trump takes office
The Biden administration has come up with a new plan to deliver all the financed military aid (worth USD 6 bln) to Ukraine before Trump's taking office in 6 weeks. Defense Express reports.
Washington is confident they will have time to deliver all the funded aid to Ukraine by the time Donald Trump is inaugurated on January 20, 2025. To make it happen, a special new strategy has been developed that aims to launch a whole "avalanche" of defense supplies and introduce new massive sanctions against russia, The Guardian reports, citing U.S. President's national security adviser Jake Sullivan.
Sullivan didn't specify the amount of aid, only mentioned abstract figures: "hundreds of thousands of additional artillery rounds, thousands of rockets and hundreds of armored vehicles." All this equipment must be delivered by mid-January, or roughly in 45 days.
Defense Express notes that such a commitment would require Washington to ship $135.55 million worth of weapons daily, without weekends or holidays, to Ukraine under the Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA) program — it's where the weapons are drawn directly from the U.S. Department of Defense's inventory.
After all, the total amount of money remaining in the account of this program only is about $6.1 billion: on November 13, the balance announced was $7.1 billion, and two aid packages were allocated since then, one amounting to $275 million pledged on November 20 and another worth $725 million on December 2. Also, an additional $2.2 billion is left under the USAI program where weapons are commissioned from American manufacturers.
Worth noting, these $6.1 billion for PDA consist of funds allocated by Congress for 2024 and $2.8 billion returned after an accounting error was discovered in summer 2023. There is a chance that this mistake was simply discarded or forgotten, then the Pentagon would only need to exploit some $3.3 billion in the remaining budget funds, presenting a bit more realistic prospect of sending the corresponding amount of weapons.
However, the main question is, what kind of weapons the U.S. can provide. In the end, it's not just the money that dictates the pace of supplies but also the availability of equipment and the minimum required level of defense capability that the U.S. Department of Defense wants to preserve and will never let the stocks fall below this benchmark. The stance of the Pentagon in this matter is more important than the fact it still keeps calculating Ukraine aid wrong, losing billions of dollars in the process.
MILITARY & TECH
Ukraine shows off new 'rocket-drone' in bid to boost long-range strikes
Ukraine showed off a new locally-produced "rocket-drone" on Friday which it said could fly 700 km (430 miles) - more than twice the longest range attributed to missiles supplied by Western allies. Reuters reports
The unmanned craft, called "Peklo" - which means hell in Ukrainian - is the second such "rocket drone" unveiled by Kyiv as it tries to increase its ability to strike deep into Russia, which invaded 33 months ago.
The drones could reach speeds of 700 kph, a representative from Ukraine's state arms manufacturer Ukroboronprom told reporters at a ceremony where they were officially handed over to the armed forces.
No other details were provided and no evidence was given of the drone's range or speed. Ukraine has released few details of its arms industry, citing concerns about giving useful information to Moscow.
Ukraine's arms production minister told Reuters in Nov the "rocket-drone" could be viewed as something akin to a cruise missile, which flies low on a guided path to its target, usually below the speed of sound.
The drones were more than a metre long, with small wings on either side and two tail fins. US-supplied ATACMS missiles have a declared range of just over 300 km.
Russia has used thousands of long-range missiles and drones to hit military and infrastructure targets all over Ukraine.
Kyiv has sought the ability to strike back, but its allies until last month resisted calls to allow use of their missiles on targets deep inside Russia.
Ukraine has sought to balance the long-range strike gap throughout the war by launching explosive-laden propeller drones at targets up to 1,000 km inside Russia.
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who was at Friday's ceremony, said last month that Ukraine was developing four different missiles.
However, despite successful launches already having taken place, the missile programme has been plagued by global supply chain issues, Ukraine's arms minister previously told Reuters.
That’s it for today’s Brief folks if you would like to keep up with events in Ukraine daily please consider subscribing.
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