THE RUSSO-UKRAINE WAR BRIEF
For: 2024-10-14
Slava Ukraini! In early 2022 I began a Telegram channel aggregating news from a number of sources daily on the war in Ukraine. In June 2023 I began providing a daily draft for the Ukraine War Brief Podcast collecting news from over 70 sources daily, much of which formed the basis of the script. While the Podcast no longer exists I have continued to make this Brief available both on my own Substack and The People’s Media for those who wish to keep up with events on a daily basis.
All the latest news on the Russo-Ukraine War 6 days per week
ALONG THE CONTACT LINE
GSAFU Morning Report
GSAFU Morning Report
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in its Operational Information update at 22:00 on Oct 13 stated that day 964 of the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation against Ukraine was about to begin.
During the past two days, 258 combat engagements took place. Over the past 48 hours, the enemy carried out 1 missile strike, 104 air strikes, 817 drone strikes and more than 7,175 artillery strikes across the positions of Ukrainian forces.
At the same time, Ukrainian soldiers continue to inflict losses in manpower and equipment on the occupying troops, exhausting the enemy along the entire front line and continue to disrupt the plans of Russian occupiers to advance deep into the territory of Ukraine.
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Air Force Daily Report
On the night of October 13, 2024, the enemy struck Poltava region and Odesa region with two Iskander-M ballistic missiles from the Kursk region - Russian Federation. and TOT of Crimea, two Kh-59 guided air missiles over Chernihiv Oblast and Sumy Oblast from the airspace of the Kursk Oblast, as well as 68 strike UAVs (launch areas: Kursk, Orel - Russian Federation)
Anti-aircraft missile forces, EW units and mobile fire groups of the Air Force and the Defense Forces of Ukraine were involved in repelling the attack.
As a result of anti-aircraft combat, 31 enemy UAVs were shot down in the Kyiv, Poltava, Chernihiv, Sumy and Cherkasy regions.
36 Russian drones were lost in location in different regions of Ukraine, presumably as a result of active countermeasures by WB.
The Russian Border Incursion
Russian forces likely recently recaptured Matveevka (east of Korenevo) and reportedly advanced further into the main Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast on Oct 13. An image published on Oct 11 showing a Russian servicemember on the outskirts of Olgovka (immediately southeast of Matveevka) indicates that Russian forces likely seized Matveevka on a prior date. Russian milbloggers claimed on Oct 13 that Russian forces recaptured Olgovka, Lyubimovka (southeast of Korenevo), and Tolsty Lug (immediately southeast of Lyubimovka) and most of Novoivanovka (east of Lyubimovka), though some milbloggers claimed that fighting is still ongoing within Olgovka and Lyubimovka.
A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces also pushed Ukrainian forces from Cherkasskaya Konopelka (southeast of Sudzha). ISW has not observed visual confirmation of these Russian claims. Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces continued attacks in Malaya Loknya (north of Sudzha) and Mykhailovka (northeast of Sudzha), near Novoivanovka and Plekhovo (south of Sudzha), and towards Kolmakov and Agronom (both southeast of Sudzha).
A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces repelled a platoon-sized Ukrainian mechanized counterattack near Novoivanovka, and the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that Russian forces also repelled Ukrainian counterattacks towards Zeleny Shlyakh (immediately east of Lyubimovka), Nizhny Klin (southeast of Lyubimovka), and Pokrovsky (south of Lyubimovka). Elements of the Russian 137th Airborne (VDV) Regiment (106th VDV Division) and unspecified naval infantry elements are reportedly operating within Lyubimovka.
Russian sources claimed that Russian forces continued efforts to dislodge Ukrainian forces from Glushkovsky Raion (west of the main Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast) on Oct 13. A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces continue to advance from Veseloye towards the northern outskirts of Novy Put and near Medvezhye. The Russian MoD claimed that Russian forces repelled a Ukrainian counterattack towards Novy Put. Elements of the Russian 56th VDV Regiment (106th VDV Division) reportedly continue to operate in Glushkovsky Raion.
Ukrainian officials continued to speak about intensified Russian offensive operations within Kursk Oblast on Oct 13. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that Russian forces are attempting to push back Ukrainian forces but that Ukrainian forces are holding their positions. Ukrainian Northern Group of Forces Spokesperson Colonel Vadym Mysnyk stated on Oct 13 that Russian forces are transferring unspecified units to Kursk Oblast and that the concentration of Russian forces in the area is high.
Zelenskyy Says Ukrainian Troops Holding On In Kursk After Russian Claims Of Gains
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said during his nightly address on Oct 12 that Ukrainian forces were holding off attempts by Russian troops to expel them from the Kursk region, following a 24-hour period in which Russian shelling killed at least five Ukrainian civilians.
"As for the Kursk operation, there were attempts by Russia to push back our positions, but we are holding the defined lines," Zelenskiy said on October 12 in his nightly video address following Russian claims of advances in the area.
Ukrainian troops made quick and shocking gains after they launched a surprise incursion into Russia's Kursk region in August, but Russia has announced the recapture of several villages, including the latest two on October 11.
The Khortytsia operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the northeastern part of Ukraine. )
Kharkiv Sector: Over the last day Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 1 Russian attack near Starysya.
Kupyansk Sector: Russian Forces carried out 16 offensive actions against Ukrainian defensive positions near Petropavlivka, Pishckane, Lozova, Vyshneve and Kopanky. 11 engagements continue.
Lyman Sector: Russian Forces carried out 19 offensive actions against Ukrainian defensive positions near Druzhelyubivka, Hrekivka, Nevske, Novosadove, Terny and Torske. 4 engagements continue.
Siversk Sector: There has been no significant change in the combat environment in the last 24 hours.
Kramatorsk Sector: Russian forces carried out 2 offensive actions near Chasiv Yar and Stupochky. 1 engagement continues.
Toretsk Sector: Russian forces carried out 4 offensive actions with air support near Toretsk and Shcherbynivka. 1 engagement continues.
The Tavria operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the central-eastern and southeastern part of Ukraine.)
Pokrovsk Sector : Russian forces conducted 22 attacks against Ukrainian defences in the vicinity of Promin, Sukhyi Yar, Lysivka and Selydove. 1 engagement is ongoing.
Kurakhove Sector: The situation is difficult in this sector. Russian forces conducted 29 attacks against Ukrainian defences in the vicinity of Kreminna Balka, Novoselydivka, Izmailivka, Hirnyk, Kurakhivka, Maksymilyanivka, Konstantinivka and Katerynivka. 10 engagements continue.
Vremivka Sector: Russian forces made 1 assault against Ukrainian positions near Zolota Nyva.
Orikhiv Sector: Russian forces made 3 unsuccessful attempts to advance against Ukrainian positions near Mala Tokmachka and Robotyne.
The Odesa operational-strategic group
(Responsible for Kherson, Qırım, (also known as Crimea) and the Black Sea.)
Prydniprovsk Sector: In this sector, over the last day, Russian forces made 7 unsuccessful attempts to force Ukrainian units from their positions on the left bank of the Dnipro.
TEMPORARILY OCCUPIED TERRITORIES
Nothing major to report.
THE HOME FRONT
Russian attacks against Ukraine kill 5, injure 8 over past day
Russian attacks against Ukraine killed five people and injured eight others over the past day, regional authorities said on Oct. 14. The Kyiv Independent reports.
Four people were killed in the town of Chasiv Yar and in the villages of Zvanivka and Vyshneve in Donetsk Oblast, Governor Vadym Filashkin said. Three more people were injured in the region over the past day.
A 56-year-old man suffered injuries as a result of a Russian drone attack in the town of Kupiansk in Kharkiv Oblast, Governor Oleh Syniehubov said.
In Kherson Oblast, Russian forces targeted eight settlements, including the regional center of Kherson. One person was killed, and four were injured, Governor Oleksandr Prokudin reported.
Russian attacks damaged three high-rise buildings, six houses, cars, gas pipelines, and a warehouse. One person was killed, and four others injured, according to the governor.
Terrifying ‘Human Safari’ In Kherson As Russian Drones Hunt Civilians
Small drones have brought a new level of precision to warfare. Unlike other weapon systems, they provide a close-up view of the target before the attack, giving the operator the chance to confirm that it is valid. This ability to ‘wave off’ and cancel an attack at the last second meant that in Afghanistan, the SwitchBlade 300 was cleared for use in situations where the rules of engagement did not allow rockets or artillery. David Hambling of Forbes reports.
This technology should enable a new era of discriminate warfare, where civilian casualties are completely avoidable and only military targets are hit. But in Kherson, Russia is using drones to deliberately target civilians – and then proudly posting the videos on social media. Attacks on people at bus stops, commuters, even children playing in parks are shared and celebrated.
This deliberate terror campaign is called the ‘Human Safari’ by Ukrainian locals, the Kyiv Independent reported.
The port city of Kherson has been on the frontline since the start of the current war. Occupied by Russian forces in the initial invasion, Ukrainian forces liberated it in November 2022, driving the Russians back to the far side of the Dnipro river.
Now the river is all that separates the city from Russian bombardments. Previously this would have just meant random artillery and rocket fire, but in the 21st century drones have become the weapon of choice. According to Kyiv Post, half the casualties in Kherson July and August were caused by drones with up to a hundred attacks per day.
The drones involved mix of grenade-dropping quadcopters and scout drones which buzz over menacingly looking for targets, plus a few FPV kamikazes. However, the grenade bombers which can return again and again, seem to be the commonest.
In a typical case recorded by the Kyiv Independent, mother-of-two Anastasia was cycling home when she was spotted by a Russian drone. Anastasia had had two previous encounters with drones, one where she ran away on foot (“In my whole life I cannot imagine that I ran so fast”) and once when the bus she was on was attacked.
Russia reportedly launches no Shahed drones against Ukraine overnight for first time in over month
Russian forces did not launch any Shahed-type drone overnight on Oct. 14 for the first time since late August, according to monitoring channels. The Kyiv Independent reports.
The lull came after Russia attacked Ukraine with more than 1,300 Shahed kamikaze drones in September, launching them across the country on a daily basis for an entire month.
This daily trend has continued for the first days of October. Overnight on Oct. 3, Ukraine’s Air Force reported that Russia launched 105 Shahed-type drones, targeting settlements across the country.
Ukrainian monitoring Telegram channels reported that Russia did not use a single Shahed for the first time in 48 days.
Ukraine's Air Force reported that Moscow's forces launched several guided aerial bombs against Sumy and Zaporizhzhia oblasts overnight.
Russia has launched thousands of cheap but effective Iranian-designed Shahed-type drones against Ukraine since the fall of 2022.
RUSSIAN WORLD
Russia to Raise Maternity Subsidies in 2025 Amid Population Crisis
Russia’s government plans to increase state maternity payments by around $500 next year as the country struggles with a shrinking number of births, Labor Minister Anton Kotyakov said Monday. The Moscow Times reports.
First-time mothers will receive a lump sum of 677,000 rubles ($7,000) starting in 2025, Kotyakov told a meeting of federal lawmakers, a modest increase from the current payment of 630,400 rubles.
Likewise, women who give birth to a second child will receive 894,000 rubles ($9,300), up from the current payment of 833,000 rubles.
Russia’s Labor Ministry expects more than 1 million people to receive maternity payments next year. A draft budget currently under consideration in parliament would allocate 536.71 billion rubles ($5.57 billion) to the benefits program next year if passed.
Some demography experts have criticised Russia’s maternity benefits program, introduced in 2007, arguing that payments are too small to motivate women to have more than one child and that they fail to keep up with inflation.
The program was set to end in 2026, but President Vladimir Putin extended it until 2030 during his re-election campaign earlier this year.
INTERNATIONAL NEWS
EU Approves New Sanctions On Iran Over Missile Transfers To Russia
Foreign ministers from the European Union have approved new sanctions against seven individuals and seven entities linked to Iran after Kyiv's Western allies accused Tehran of sending ballistic missiles to Russia to aid in its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Radio Liberty reports.
The sanctions, reported in an exclusive by Radio Farda last week, target companies and individuals accused of being involved in the transfer of the weapons to Russia, including the country's flagship carrier Iran Air, as well as airlines Saha Airlines and Mahan Air.
Individuals sanctioned include the deputy defense minister of Iran, Seyed Hamzeh Ghalandari; prominent officials of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps's Quds Force (IRGC-QF); IRGC Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters; and IRGC Aerospace Force Space Division, as well as the managing directors of the EU-listed companies Iran Aircraft Manufacturing Industries (HESA) and Aerospace Industries Organization (AIO).
The United States, Britain, France, and Germany accused Iran of sending ballistic missiles and related technology to Russia for use against Ukraine more than a month ago, sparking consultations among European allies on the matter.
"Today’s designation includes individuals and entities responsible for the development and transfer of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), missiles, and related technology to Russia in support of its war of aggression against Ukraine, and to armed groups and entities undermining peace and security in the Middle East and the Red Sea region," the council said in a statement on October 14 .
Russia's Defense Minister Arrives in China for Military Talks
Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov arrived in Beijing Monday for talks with China's military leadership as the two countries ramp up economic and military cooperation. The Moscow Times reports.
Moscow and Beijing have forged closer ties since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, an alliance that has drawn anxiety in the West as both countries seek to expand their global influence.
During his visit to China, Belousov will "hold a number of negotiations with the country's military and military-political leadership," according to a statement by the Russian Defense Ministry.
A video published by the ministry showed Belousov being saluted by Chinese servicemen in Beijing as an army band played the Russian national anthem.
China and Russia declared a "no limits" partnership shortly before Moscow invaded Ukraine, and the two countries have carried out a series of military drills together since then.
President Vladimir Putin said in August that Russia's economic and trade links with China were "yielding results," and that the two were working on joint "economic and humanitarian" projects.
Last month, Russian and Chinese warships carried out joint drills in the Sea of Japan, part of a major naval exercise that Putin said was the largest of its kind for three decades.
MILITARY & TECH
Ukraine reportedly has their first air to air victory with the F-16
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a US based think tank, in its Oct 12 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment stated that according to Russian sources, the Ukrainian F-16 likely shot down the Su-34 bomber. This is probably the first air victory of Western fighters during the war with Russia.
A Russian milblogger claimed that a Ukrainian F-16 downed a Russian Su-34 fighter aircraft in an unspecified area of the theatre on October 12. ISW cannot verify the claim that a Ukrainian F-16 was involved in the reported loss of the Russian Su-34. Another Russian milblogger closely affiliated with Russian aviation published a tribute to a lost Su-34 aircraft on October 12 but did not provide additional details about the incident.
A prominent Russian milblogger also confirmed that the Su-34 crew died but claimed that this loss was not related to Ukrainian activity, and other milbloggers speculated that the Su-34 could have crashed as a result of technical malfunction or human error.
Another Russian Telegram channel, which claims to be managed by Russian airborne (VDV) officers and staff of the Russian “Dnepr” Grouping of Forces, claimed that a Ukrainian F-16 fighter jet presumably shot down the Russian Su-34 fighter aircraft while the Su-34 was dropping FAB glide bombs with unified planning and correction modules (UMPC) at a distance of about 50 kilometres from the frontline. The Telegram channel later responded to the claims that the Su-34 could have crashed due to technical malfunction or human error, noting that such hypothetical scenarios still highlight a problem with the wear and tear of Russian aircraft, unprofessionalism among pilots, and pilot exhaustion.
The Telegram channel accused Kremlin-affiliated milbloggers of lying about the Su-34 crash and preventing Russian forces from developing plans to counter the Ukrainian F-16 threat. The Telegram channel claimed in March 2024 that Russian federal censor Roskomnadzor filed a complaint against the channel for “discrediting” a Russian military commander. ISW cannot independently confirm the Telegram channel’s claim, but if confirmed, this incident would mark the first Ukrainian shootdown of a Russian manned aircraft with a Western-provided F-16 fighter jet.
Grumpy here - Unofficial reports state that the Russian SU-34 climbed to an altitude of 8,000 metres in order to get the maximum range from the glide bombs, which allowed the aircraft to be targeted by the Ukrainian Air Force. Reportedly Ukrainian F-16s launched AIM 120 missiles the targeted the aircraft. The SU 34 was struck and shot down. It appears the crew did not survive. Note the SU-34 was reportedly operating 50km behind the line of engagement, the F-16 was likely also well behind the Front line. It is likely the intercepting missile travelled 80 to 100km to take out the enemy aircraft.
Ben Hodges: Balance is beginning to shift slightly in Ukraine’s favor
General and former commander of the U.S. Army in Europe Ben Hodges in an interview with Espreso published on Oct 13 spoke about the prospects of the war in Ukraine. Below are some excerpts.
On the issue of the current administration’s Ukraine policy:
“I'm disappointed that the U.S. Administration did not fully address all of President Zelenskyy's requests or the plan he presented to the American leadership. I'm also disappointed that we still seem to be more concerned about provoking Russia instead of defeating it. Furthermore, I believe we will regret this for a long time to come. However, I don’t think this will change with the current administration. After the next election, if it's a Harris administration, I believe we will see more decisive and positive action.”
His thoughts on Russia's threatened use of Nuclear weapons if they start to lose badly:
My president said almost three years ago that if Russia used a nuclear weapon, there would be “catastrophic consequences for Russia”. Of course, he did not specify what those consequences were, but clearly, I would anticipate that they would involve a combination of kinetic strikes not – nuclear, but long-range weapons – that would destroy what’s left of the Russian Black Sea Fleet or other Russian assets outside the sovereign territory of Russia.
His thoughts regard Russia’s ability to rearm and maintain ammunition supplies
Of course, Russia is able to keep doing what it’s doing because of ammunition from North Korea, parts from China, and drones and missiles from Iran. But they are also able to continue because India and China are buying oil and gas from Russia. If we could stop the export of Russian oil and gas to India and China, Russia wouldn’t have the money to purchase ammunition and drones from North Korea or Iran.
Additionally, we know that some critical components for Russian weapons are made in the United States, sent to India, and then end up in Russian weapons. So, there are many holes in the sanctions regime.
Now, we are hearing that Russia is finally experiencing some shortages of ammunition, while Ukrainian forces are not only good at producing their own drones but also at using artillery ammunition with scatterable submunitions—hundreds of small warheads inside a larger one. These have been very effective in targeting Russian artillery. So, I think the balance is beginning to shift slightly in Ukraine’s favour, though not enough yet.
The current situation regarding Russia’s ability to continue incremental advances on the ground:
It only works as long as they have bodies to put on the front lines. At some point, they will have to start recruiting young men from Moscow and St. Petersburg, and that will become a problem. It also only works as long as they have the artillery capability to keep pounding Ukrainian defences and aircraft using glide bombs to hit Ukrainian defenders.
If Ukraine is able to destroy Russian artillery, headquarters, and logistics, this tactic will become ineffective because those elements—the logistics, artillery, airfields, and aircraft—are what make it possible. So, if Ukraine can degrade or destroy those, I believe this Russian approach will no longer work.
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