THE RUSSO-UKRAINE WAR BRIEF
For: 2024-10-29
Slava Ukraini! In early 2022 I began a Telegram channel aggregating news from a number of sources daily on the war in Ukraine. In June 2023 I began providing a daily draft for the Ukraine War Brief Podcast collecting news from over 70 sources daily, much of which formed the basis of the script. While the Podcast no longer exists I have continued to make this Brief available both on my own Substack and The People’s Media for those who wish to keep up with events on a daily basis.
All the latest news on the Russo-Ukraine War 6 days per week
ALONG THE CONTACT LINE
GSAFU Morning Report
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in its Operational Information update at 22:00 on Oct 28 stated that day 979 of the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation against Ukraine was about to begin.
During the past day, 134 combat engagements took place. Over the past 24 hours, the enemy carried out 70 air strikes, 685 drone strikes and more than 3,800 artillery strikes across the positions of Ukrainian forces.
At the same time, Ukrainian soldiers continue to inflict losses in manpower and equipment on the occupying troops, exhausting the enemy along the entire front line and continue to disrupt the plans of Russian occupiers to advance deep into the territory of Ukraine.
Air Force Daily Report
On the night of October 29, 2024 (from 10:00 p.m. on October 28), the enemy attacked the city of Kryvyi Rih from the Crimea with an Iskander-M ballistic missile, attacked with 48 Shahed type UAVs and unmanned aerial vehicles of an unknown type from the directions of Orel, Kursk - Russian Federation Enemy aviation launches guided aerial bombs around the frontline in various directions around the clock.
The air attack was repulsed by anti-aircraft missile troops, aviation, electronic warfare units and mobile fire groups of the Air Force and the Defense Forces of Ukraine.
Anti-aircraft defence worked in Kyiv, Cherkasy, Vinnytsia, Zhytomyr, Khmelnytskyi, Sumy, Chernihiv and Poltava regions.
As of 09:00, 26 enemy UAVs have been shot down, 20 UAVs have been lost in location, and one has returned to Russia. Information is being clarified and updated.
The Russian Border Incursion
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a US based think tank, in its Oct 28 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment reported that fighting continued in the main Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast on Oct 28, but there were no confirmed changes to the frontline. A Russian source claimed that Russian forces advanced in Novoivanovka, but ISW has not observed confirmation of this claim.
Russian sources, including the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD), claimed that Ukrainian forces counterattacked east of Korenevo near Kremyanoye; southeast of Korenevo near Nizhny Klin, Novoivanovka, Alexandriya, Lyubimovka, and Darino; east of Sudzha near Russkaya Konopelka; and southeast of Sudzha near Plekhovo. A Kremlin-affiliated milblogger claimed that Russian sources' claims that Ukrainian forces recaptured Darino are unconfirmed.
NATO confirms North Korean units are operating in Kursk Oblast.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a US based think tank, in its Oct 28 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment reported that NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte announced that South Korean intelligence officials shared evidence with NATO officials on Oct 28 that North Korean units are operating in Kursk Oblast.
Rutte stated that senior representatives from South Korea's National Intelligence Service and Ministry of National Defense and other Western allies shared intelligence assessments during a meeting on the morning of Oct 28 about North Korea's growing involvement in Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
Rutte stated that the deployment of North Korean forces represented a significant escalation in North Korea's involvement in Russia's invasion of Ukraine, a breach of United National Security Council (UNSC) resolutions, and a “dangerous expansion” of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Rutte, on behalf of NATO, called for Russia and North Korea to immediately cease these actions and stated that he will meet with South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol and Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov later on Oct 28.
Ukraine’s Main Military Intelligence Directorate (HUR) reported on October 27 that Russian forces are transferring North Korean military personnel along the E38 Kursk-Voronezh highway in vehicles with civilian license plates.
Ukraine's Pivnich (Northern) Operational Command Spokesperson Vadym Mysnyk stated on October 28 that Ukrainian forces have not engaged North Korean forces in combat or taken North Korean forces as prisoners of war (POWs), although Ukrainian intelligence has information indicating that North Korean forces have been transferred to Kursk Oblast. ISW previously noted that the involvement of North Korean troops in combat operations in Kursk Oblast or frontline areas in Ukraine would make North Korea an active combatant and belligerent in Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
The Khortytsia operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the northeastern part of Ukraine. )
Kharkiv Sector: Over the last day Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 4 Russian attacks in the area of Vovchansk.
Kupyansk Sector: Russian Forces carried out 13 offensive actions against Ukrainian defensive positions near Petropavlivka, Kolisynivka, Kruhlyakivka, Lozova, and Pershotravneve.
Lyman Sector: Russian Forces carried out 15 offensive actions against Ukrainian defensive positions near Hrekivka, Terny, Zarichne and Torske.
Siversk Sector: There has been no significant change in the combat environment in the last 24 hours.
Kramatorsk Sector: Russian forces carried out 2 unsuccessful offensive actions near Chasiv Yar and Stupochky.
Toretsk Sector: Russian forces carried out 1 unsuccessful offensive action with air support near Toretsk.
The Tavria operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the central-eastern and southeastern part of Ukraine.)
Pokrovsk Sector : Russian forces conducted 27 attacks against Ukrainian defences concentrating in the vicinity of Myrolyubivka, Promin, Krutnyi Yar ,Lysivka, Selydove and Vyshneve.
Kurakhove Sector: Today the heaviest exchanges took place in this sector. Russian forces conducted 48 attacks against Ukrainian defences in the vicinity of Novodmytrivka, Zoryane, Maksymilyanivka, Katerynivka and Antonivka. 5 engagements continue.
Vremivka Sector: Russian forces, supported by aviation, made 12 assaults against Ukrainian positions near Novoukrainka and Bohoyavlenka.
Orikhiv Sector: There has been no significant change in the combat environment in the last 24 hours.
The Odesa operational-strategic group
(Responsible for Kherson, Qırım, (also known as Crimea) and the Black Sea.)
Prydniprovsk Sector: In this sector, over the last day, Russian forces made 2 unsuccessful attempts to dislodge Ukrainian units from their positions on the left bank of the Dnipro.
TEMPORARILY OCCUPIED TERRITORIES
Explosions heard in temporarily occupied Luhansk amid ammunition detonation
Explosions were heard in the temporarily occupied city of Luhansk. Artem Lysohor, Head of Luhansk Oblast Military Administration reported on Telegram. He indicated that the strikes likely targeted a decommissioned military unit where the Russians were storing ammunition.
Lysohor said that residents have been reporting sounds of ammunition detonations since the morning of 29 October. Videos shared on social media clearly show a powerful explosion against a backdrop of thick smoke following the impact.
It is likely that the ammunition was stored there for supply to the frontline. Lysyhor mentioned that there was previously a decommissioned military unit in the area of the strike.
THE HOME FRONT
Ukraine's key Pokrovsk coal mine still operating as Russian troops move closer
The coal mine in the eastern Ukraine town of Pokrovsk, a supplier of coking coal vital for the steel industry, is still operating despite the approach of Russian forces, an industry source said on Tuesday. Reuters reported on Oct 29.
Ukrainian military analysts said this week that Russian troops had moved to within about 7.5 km (4.6 miles) of Pokrovsk, overwhelming Ukraine's stretched defences with vastly superior numbers and equipment.
Over the past 24 hours, Ukrainian forces repelled 31 Russian attacks in the Pokrovsk sector, the military said.
The mine lies 10 km (6.2 miles) west of the town, a strategic supply hub, in the opposite direction to the advancing Russian forces.
The industry source, who asked not to be named, did not say at what point the mine's owner, metallurgical group Metinvest, might be forced to halt operations and evacuate staff.
Earlier, Metinvest said it was prioritising workers' safety and was helping to evacuate the families of employees from the frontline area.
Ukraine's steelmakers' union said this month the potential closure of the Pokrovsk mine, the only domestic source of coking coal essential for steelmaking, could cause steel production to slump to 2 million-3 million metric tons next year from the 7.5 million expected in 2024.
Producers hope to find alternative sources of coking coal from elsewhere in Ukraine should the Pokrovsk mine be seized by Russian troops, but imports would inevitably be needed - hiking their costs.
RUSSIAN WORLD
Punitive Psychiatry: An Increasingly Common Tool in Russia's Crackdown on Activists
An increasing number of Russian political activists have been placed in forced psychiatric treatment — a practice dating back to the Soviet era that involves confinement in mental hospitals. The Moscow Times reports.
According to rights activists, some political prisoners who have undergone this treatment report being subjected to humiliation, beatings and being injected with powerful antipsychotic drugs.
The number of political activists placed in forced psychiatric treatment in 2023 was five times higher than the average for 2021-2022, the independent investigative news outlet Agentstvo said.
People who undergo forced psychiatric treatment can be kept in hospitals until they are deemed cured by a commission of psychiatrists.
After the start of the war with Ukraine, Russia sent 86 people to forced psychiatric treatment, Agentstvo said in May, adding that “it is impossible to distinguish cases involving real illness from those that are politically motivated repressions.”
Drone Attacks Russian Special Forces University in Chechnya
An early morning drone strike damaged a special forces university in the North Caucasus republic of Chechnya, regional leader Ramzan Kadyrov said Tuesday, marking the first such attack on the region since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The Moscow Times reports.
“At 6:30 this morning, the roof of an empty building on the territory of the Russian Special Forces University caught fire in Gudermes as a result of an unmanned aerial attack,” Kadyrov said, referring to a town around 36 kilometres (22 miles) east of the capital Grozny.
Images shared on social media showed fire and black smoke rising from what appeared to be the university’s main campus roof.
“No one was killed or injured. The fire has been extinguished,” Kadyrov wrote on Telegram, adding that the attack did not lead to disruptions at the university.
He did not say whether he believed the drone had been launched from Ukraine, noting only that police were investigating the incident. Chechnya is located around 600 kilometres (373 miles) southeast of the border with Ukraine.
The Russian Special Forces University is the country’s only private educational institution that trains special unit personnel. After Moscow invaded Ukraine in 2022, the university created a centre to train soldiers for the war, and it reportedly launched combat drone production this spring.
The attack may be related to an internal “blood feud”
Grumpy here - Later reports from Ukrainian sources reported in the Kyiv Independent indicate the drone strike in Chechnya may have been launched from Dagestan or Ingushetia raising the possibility of further instability in the North Caucasus region of the Russian Federation. Some reports indicate it may have nothing to do with Ukraine but may be related to internal problems dating back to a “blood feud” declared following the Moscow “Wildberries” shooting in September. It seems the security guard killed during that attack were from Ingushetia and the attackers were Checnyan.
INTERNATIONAL NEWS
South Korean intelligence confirms North Korean troops might have reached Russian front lines
South Korea’s spy agency reveals North Korean troops and generals may have entered Ukraine battlefields, while Russia provides language training and continues military cooperation. Yonhap News reports.
The National Intelligence Service (NIS) shared the information with lawmakers during a closed-door meeting of the parliamentary intelligence committee, according to Rep. Lee Seong-Kweun of the ruling People Power Party and Rep. Park Sun-won of the main opposition Democratic Party.
"The mobilisation of troops between North Korea and Russia is ongoing," the NIS said. "We are checking the possibility of the deployment of some (North Korean) personnel, including high-ranking military officials, to the front lines."
The NIS said the Russian military is teaching over 100 military terms in Russian to North Korean soldiers, noting reports of apparent challenges in communicating due to the language barrier.
The agency also assessed that a Russian aircraft travelling between Moscow and Pyongyang on Oct. 23-24 was likely carrying key Russian security officials involved in the North's troop deployment.
On North Korean Foreign Minister Choe Son-hui's recent visit to Russia, the NIS said it likely involved discussions on additional deployments.
Zelenskyy requested Tomahawk missiles from the US as part of Victory Plan
As part of the undisclosed details of his Victory Plan, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy allegedly requested Washington to supply long-range Tomahawk cruise missiles. Ukrainska Pravda reports citing the New York Times.
An unnamed senior US official said that Zelenskyy purportedly asked for Tomahawks as a component of a non-nuclear deterrence package – a key aspect of his proposed Victory Plan.
The Tomahawk missiles have a range of over 1,500 kilometres, approximately seven times farther than the ATACMS missiles, which Ukraine received in limited numbers.
The US official described this request from Kyiv as "a totally unfeasible request".
The list of long-range targets in Russia, previously submitted by Ukraine in an attempt to gain permission to strike Russian territory with American missiles, reportedly far exceeds the number of missiles that the US or any other ally could supply without jeopardising their own needs in the event of escalations in the Middle East or Asia.
Referring to four sources, the publication also noted that Zelenskyy was reportedly stunned by the refusal to lift the restrictions on long-range strikes following his meeting with Biden in September.
Last week, US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan stated that the White House’s stance on allowing Ukraine to conduct long-range strikes deep into Russian territory had not changed, although discussions are ongoing.
Russian leader Vladimir Putin warned that such permission from Ukraine’s Western allies would be regarded as direct NATO involvement in the war and stated that Russia is exploring various response options.
MILITARY & TECH
Croatia to supply tanks and fighting vehicles to Ukraine
Croatia plans to supply Ukraine with 30 M-84 main battle tanks and 30 M-80 infantry fighting vehicles (IFVs) by the end of the year, Defense Minister Ivan Anusic announced. Defence Blog reports.
The transfer is part of a “ring exchange” program facilitated by Germany, allowing European partners to aid Ukraine’s defense efforts while securing upgraded equipment for themselves.
The M-84 tanks, specifically the M-84A4 Snajper variant, are Yugoslav-era vehicles equipped with updated fire-control systems, stabilizers, and laser rangefinders but lack reactive armor. Meanwhile, the M-80 IFVs feature a 20mm autocannon and have been supplied to Ukrainian forces in previous arms transfers. They can be described as a Yugoslav copy of the Soviet BMP-2.
To enhance its own military capabilities, Croatia aims to procure up to 50 Leopard 2A8 tanks using funds from Germany’s ring-exchange initiative.
Anusic stated, “The decision not only strengthens our own national defence but also supports our partners in Ukraine at a critical time.”
In addition to the M-84 tanks and M-80 IFVs, Croatia is set to supply spare parts and ammunition to support the Ukrainian armed forces.
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