THE RUSSO-UKRAINE WAR BRIEF
For: 2024-12-20
I will be taking a break for the Christmas Holidays. The Brief will be published on Monday Dec 23 and will then resume Saturday Dec 28. Any major breaking news in the meantime I will post on BlueSky - You can find me here: BlueSky
Slava Ukraini! In early 2022 I began a Telegram channel aggregating news from a number of sources daily on the war in Ukraine. In June 2023 I began providing a daily draft for the Ukraine War Brief Podcast collecting news from over 70 sources daily, which formed the basis of the script. While the Podcast no longer exists I have continued to make this Brief available for my followers here on Substack for those who wish to keep up with the news from the war.
All the latest news on the Russo-Ukraine War 6 days per week
ALONG THE CONTACT LINE
GSAFU Morning Report
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in its Operational Information update at 22:00 on Dec 19 stated that day 1031 of the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation against Ukraine was about to begin.
During the past day, 191 combat engagements took place. Over the past 24 hours, the enemy carried out 3 missile strikes, 65 air strikes, 2,234 drone strikes and more than 5,000 artillery strikes across the positions of Ukrainian forces.
At the same time, Ukrainian soldiers continue to inflict losses in manpower and equipment on the occupying troops, exhausting the enemy along the entire front line and continue to disrupt the plans of Russian occupiers to advance deeper into the territory of Ukraine.
Air Force Daily Report
5 BALLISTIC MISSILES AND 40 ENEMY UAVS WERE SHOT, ANOTHER 20 DRONES DID NOT REACH THEIR TARGETS (LOCATIONALLY LOST)
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On the night of December 20, 2024 (from 19:00 on December 19), the enemy struck with an Iskander-M ballistic missile from the Rostov region, a Kh-59/69 guided aircraft missile from the airspace of the Kursk region, and 65 Shahed attack UAVs and drones of other types from the Bryansk, Millerovo, Orel, Primorsko-Akhtarsk regions - Russia.
The air attack was repelled by aviation, anti-aircraft missile troops, electronic warfare units, and mobile fire groups of the Air Force and Defense Forces of Ukraine.
As of 09:30, the shooting down of 40 Shahed attack UAVs and drones of other types in Kursk, Poltava, Sumy, Kyiv, Chernihiv, Cherkasy, Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhia regions has been confirmed.
Due to the active countermeasures of the Defense Forces, 20 enemy drones-simulators were lost in location (without negative consequences).
As a result of the nighttime missile and drone strike, private and apartment buildings, medical facilities, warehouses, and farms in the Dnipropetrovsk, Sumy, Kyiv, and Kharkiv regions were hit.
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At around 7:00 on December 20, 2024, the enemy struck the capital of Ukraine with 5 Iskander-M /KN -23 ballistic missiles. The launches were carried out from the Voronezh and Bryansk regions - Russia.
As a result of combat work, air defense shot down all five Iskander-M /KN -23 ballistic missiles that Russian criminals had directed at Kyiv.
Unfortunately, after the insidious enemy attack, there are consequences on the ground. The debris of the downed missiles caused damage and destruction in five districts of the capital, unfortunately, there are dead and wounded.
We ask citizens to respond immediately to reports of a threat of ballistic weapons use, as there is very little time to find shelter. Follow the recommendations of emergency services, protect yourself and your loved ones.
The Russian Border Incursion
The GSAFU reported that over the previous day Defense Forces of Ukraine continued its operation in Kursk, where the enemy carried out 60 assaults on Ukrainian positions during a day. The enemy conducted 6 air strikes and carried out 472 artillery strikes.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a US based think tank, in its Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment reported that Russian forces recently advanced within the Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast amid continued offensive operations on Dec 19. Geolocated footage published on Dec 19 indicates that elements of the Russian 155th Naval Infantry Brigade (Pacific Fleet, Eastern Military District [EMD]) recently advanced east of Novoivanovka (southwest of Korenevo) toward Viktorovka (southeast of Koronevo). Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces advanced in Kruglenkoye (southeast of Korenevo), conducted clearing operations in Russkoye Porechnoye (northeast of Sudzha), reached the outskirts of Cherkasskoye Porechnoye (northeast of Sudzha), and made tactical gains in Cherkasskaya Konopelka (southeast of Sudzha). One Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces seized Cherkasskaya Konopelka several days ago. ISW has not observed confirmation of these claims, however.
A Russian milblogger claimed on Dec19 that Ukrainian forces counterattacked in an unspecified area of the Kursk Oblast salient on the night of Dec 18 to 19. Assault and drone elements of the Russian 1434th "Akhmat-Chechnya" Regiment are reportedly operating in the Sudzha direction.
The Khortytsia operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the northeastern part of Ukraine. )
Kharkiv Sector: In this sector, over the last day, there has been no significant change in the combat environment, however Russia conducted several airstrikes on the positions of Ukrainian defenders.
Kupyansk Sector: Russian Forces carried out 10 offensive actions against Ukrainian defensive positions near Kolisnykivka, Zahryzove and Lozova.
Lyman Sector: Russian Forces carried out 17 offensive actions against Ukrainian defensive positions near Zelenyi Hai, Tverdokhilbove, Terny and the Serebryanskyy Forest.
Siversk Sector: Over the last day Russian forces carried out 9 offensive actions against Ukrainian defences in the vicinity of Hyhorivka, Bilohorivka and Verkhnokamianske.
Kramatorsk Sector: Russian Forces carried out 1 unsuccessful offensive action against Ukrainian defensive positions near Chasiv Yar.
Toretsk Sector: Russian Forces carried out 12 offensive actions against Ukrainian defensive positions near Toretsk and Shcherbynivka.
The Tavria operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the central-eastern and southeastern part of Ukraine.)
Pokrovsk Sector : Over the last day, Russian Forces carried out 32 offensive actions against Ukrainian defensive positions mainly in the vicinity of Sukha Balka (not shown on map), Myrolyubivka, Promin, Lysivka, Dachenske, Zelene, Novotroitske, Solone and Novovasylivka.
Kurakhove Sector: Russia conducted 18 offensive actions over the last day in the vicinity of Stari Terny, Kurakhove, Dachne and . 1 engagement continues.
Ukrainian troops hold new line after avoiding encirclement in Donetsk Oblast, military says
The DeepState monitoring group’s report that some Ukrainian units are in an operational encirclement near the settlements of Uspenivka and Trudove in Donetsk Oblast is not true, New Voice reported citing the Khortytsia Operational-Strategic Group of Forces statement on Telegram Dec 20.
Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces Oleksandr Syrskyi ordered the timely withdrawal of Ukrainian troops to avoid encirclement, and they are now continuing their tasks on the Kurakhove-Konstantinopolske frontline.
This follows an earlier DeepState report that some Ukrainian soldiers were unable to break out of the encirclement after the enemy seized the settlements of Trudove and Uspenivka, occupying the last piece of the so-called Uspenivka pocket.
At present, the Russian forces are continuously attacking the flanks of a possible new encirclement in the Stari Terny, Andriivka and Sontsovka sectors.
Vremivka Sector: Russian forces made 20 attempts to break through Ukrainian defences in the vicinity of Novodarivka, Blahodatne, Neskuchine, Kostiantynopolske and Uspenivka (not shown on map). 3 engagements continue.
Orikhiv Sector: Russian forces made 1 unsuccessful attempt to break through Ukrainian defences in the vicinity of Novodanylivka.
The Odesa operational-strategic group
(Responsible for Kherson, Qırım, (also known as Crimea) and the Black Sea.)
Prydniprovsk Sector: In this sector, over the last day, there has been no significant change in the combat environment. Russian forces made 2 unsuccessful attempts to dislodge Ukrainian units from their positions.
TEMPORARILY OCCUPIED TERRITORIES
Damaged power line leaves Zaporizhzhya NPP close to blackout
The Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant has lost power from one of its two transmission lines due to Russian shelling, putting it on the brink of a blackout, New Voice reports citing Ukraine's Ministry of Energy on Dec. 20.
The power line connecting the temporarily occupied Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant to Ukraine's grid was damaged, leaving the plant with power from only one line.
Power engineers will begin restoring the supply once the security situation allows, the Ministry of Energy said. In November, Russian shelling left the plant on one power line three times.
THE HOME FRONT
Russian missile attack targets Kyiv
Russia launched a series of missile attacks against Kyiv on the morning of Dec. 20, reportedly killing one person, injuring 12, and causing damage across the city. The Kyiv Independent reports.
Multiple explosions were reported in Kyiv around 7 a.m. local time, according to Kyiv Independent journalists on the ground. Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko said that air defenses were operating over the city.
Russia attacked the capital with five ballistic missiles of the Iskander-M or the North Korean KN-23 model, the Air Force said. All five missiles were reportedly shot down, with debris falling in several districts of the city.
One person was killed and at least 10 injured in the Holosiivskyi district, and at least one was injured in the Shevchenkivskyi district, the State Emergency Service reported. Five people remain hospitalized as of 1 p.m. local time.
In the Holosiivskyi district, the missile wreckage damaged office buildings, residential buildings, a gas pipe, and five cars. A fire broke out on the roof of one of the office buildings, and the 15th floor was damaged, possibly trapping people inside, authorities said.
Sixteen medical institutions, 17 schools, 13 kindergartens, and 630 residential buildings in the district were left without heating as a result of damaged infrastructure.
The attack damaged a number of foreign embassies on Dec. 20, Foreign Ministry spokesman Heorhii Tykhyi said at a briefing.
The embassies of Albania, Argentina, Palestine, North Macedonia, Portugal, and Montenegro are located in a building heavily damaged by the Russian strike.
Heat restored to over 600 Kyiv buildings after Russian morning attack.
Kyivteploenergo has restored heat to more than 600 buildings left without it after a morning Russian attack, New Voice reported citing Mayor Vitaliy Klitschko said on Dec. 20.
Specialists repaired pipeline damage in Kyiv’s Holosiivskyi district, focusing on Antonovycha and Velyka Vasylkivska streets, with work still underway, officials said.
Mayor Vitaliy Klitschko reported that heating and hot water have been restored to most affected buildings, though 18 residential buildings, a hospital, and 13 departmental buildings remain without supply.
Russia conducted a mass cyberattack on Ukraine's state registries.
Russia has carried out a mass cyberattack on Ukraine's state registries, late on Thursday, resulting in a temporary suspension of services, Reuters reports citing Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Olha Stefanishyna.
The registries contain vital information about Ukrainian citizens such as births, deaths, marriages and property ownership.
"Today the largest external cyberattack in recent times occurred with Ukraine's state registries," Stefanishyna wrote on Facebook.
"As a result of this targeted attack, the work of the unified and state registries, which are under the jurisdiction of the Ministry of Justice of Ukraine, was temporarily suspended."
Stefanishyna said it was clear the attack was "carried out by the Russians to disrupt the work of the country's critically important infrastructure".
She said work to restore operations would require about two weeks, but offices would be providing some services already on Friday. An initial assessment, she said, showed other state services were unaffected.
"After restoration is completed, a thorough analysis of the attack will be conducted to increase protection against similar attacks in the future," she wrote.
In the course of nearly 34 months of war, both Ukrainian and Russian institutions have been subjected to serious cyberattacks.
These include a mass attack on Ukrainian mobile provider Kyivstar in December 2023 and a series of attacks on Russian ministries last June.
RUSSIAN WORLD
Prosecutors Seek 7.5-Year Prison Sentence for Russian Singer Who Burnt His Passport
Russian state prosecutors requested a nearly eight-year prison sentence for singer Eduard Sharlot on charges of justifying Nazism and insulting religious feelings, the Interfax news agency reported Friday.
Sharlot was arrested last year after returning to Russia from Armenia, where he had posted videos of himself burning his passport and nailing Patriarch Kirill’s portrait to a cross in opposition to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
He later sent a letter to Russia’s Orthodox Church leader seeking repentance and vowed to devote his career to patriotism. The singer also issued an apology to Patriarch Kirill and President Vladimir Putin, as well as to other Kremlin-aligned figures, during a court appearance.
Sharlot claimed to have been “dazed by American propaganda” when deciding to burn his passport on camera, telling a judge earlier this year that he had been a “lost man.”
The human rights group Memorial has designated Sharlot as a political prisoner.
Russia’s state financial watchdog Rosfinmonitoring added the singer to its list of “terrorists and extremists” in July, allowing authorities to freeze his bank accounts with a court order.
Kursk Region Construction Boss Arrested Over Border Fortification Fraud Allegations
Authorities in southwestern Russia’s Kursk region arrested the CEO of a company responsible for constructing border fortifications, the state-run propaganda agency TASS reported Friday, citing police.
Vladimir Lukin, general director of the Kursk Region Development Corporation, faces charges of abuse of authority for allegedly misusing 173 million rubles ($1.7 million) during the construction of fortifications along the Russia-Ukraine border. Investigators accuse Lukin of authorizing double payments to contractors for work already completed and paid for.
Lukin’s arrest follows that of Igor Grabin, the company’s deputy director, who was arrested last week as part of the same investigation. Grabin faces identical charges, with investigators claiming Lukin issued illegal orders that led to the misuse of budget funds allocated for the fortifications.
During a search of Lukin’s property, law enforcement agents found nearly 2 million rubles ($20,000) in cash and a collection of luxury watches, police sources told TASS.
Scrutiny over the Kursk region’s border defenses has intensified since August, when Ukrainian forces launched a surprise cross-border incursion, reportedly meeting minimal resistance.
In October, police searched the business of controversial regional lawmaker Maxim Vasilyev, who had faced accusations of border defense failures. Vasilyev publicly blamed filmmaker Nikita Mikhalkov for “sensationalizing” the situation.
Mikhalkov, a state television host, claimed that Kursk officials embezzled 15 billion rubles ($146 million) earmarked for fortification projects.
Ukrainian intelligence reports destruction of An-72 Aircraft at airbase in Moscow Oblast
A Russian An-72 military transport plane blew up at the Ostafyevo airfield in Moscow Oblast, Euromaidan Press reports citing a report from Ukraine’s military intelligence (HUR) released on 20 December.
The Ukrainian military has increasingly focused on striking Russian air assets as a strategic move to diminish Russia’s aerial capabilities since the onset of the full-scale invasion in February 2022.
The An-72 is a Soviet transport aircraft, developed by Antonov, Ukraine’s largest aircraft manufacturing company. The plane is used mainly by the military. The Ostafyevo airfield is located over 1,000 kilometers (620 miles) from Ukraine’s border.
The incident occurred a week ago, on 12 December, at the Ostafyevo airfield in Moscow Oblast – the main base of an An-72 military transport unit of the Russian navy, according to HUR.
They emphasized that the approximate cost of such an aircraft is about $4.5 million.
INTERNATIONAL NEWS
Ukraine to receive first funds from US from proceeds of frozen Russian assets
Ukraine is set to receive its first tranche of funds from the US derived from the proceeds of frozen Russian assets, with the World Bank allocating US$2 billion. Ukrainska Pravda reported citing Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal.
The World Bank’s Executive Board approved the decision recently and Ukraine’s Ministry of Finance signed the relevant agreements today.
US$1 billion will be granted as a non-repayable grant from the World Bank's FIF fund, sourced from the US contribution under the G7 initiative.
US$1.05 billion will be provided as a loan backed by guarantees from the governments of Japan and the United Kingdom.
Ukraine has fulfilled all the necessary requirements to receive the funds, Shmyhal added.
MILITARY & TECH
Ukraine collects vast war data trove to train AI models
As the future of warfare pivots towards artificial intelligence, Ukraine is sitting on a valuable resource: millions of hours of footage from drones which can be used to train AI models to make decisions on the battlefield. Reuters reports.
AI has been deployed by both sides on the battlefield during Russia's invasion of Ukraine to identify targets, scanning images far quicker than a human can.
Oleksandr Dmitriev, founder of OCHI, a non-profit Ukrainian digital system which centralises and analyses video feeds from over 15,000 drone crews working on the frontlines, told Reuters his system had collected 2 million hours, or 228 years, of battlefield video from drones since 2022. That will provide vital data for AI to learn from.
"This is food for the AI: If you want to teach an AI, you give it 2 million hours (of video), it will become something supernatural."
According to Dmitriev, the footage can be used to train AI models in combat tactics, spotting targets and assessing the effectiveness of weapons systems.
"It is essentially experience which can be turned into mathematics," he said, adding that an AI program can study the trajectories and angles at which weapons are most effective.
The system was originally made in 2022 to give military commanders an overview of their areas of the battlefield by showing them drone footage from all nearby crews side by side on one screen.
After the system was rolled out, the team running it realised that video being sent back by drones could prove useful as a record of the war – so they began to store it. On average, Dmitriev said five or six terabytes of new data were added every day from the fighting.
Dmitriev said he was talking with representatives from some of Ukraine's foreign allies that had expressed interest in his OCHI system, but declined to provide details.
Samuel Bendett, senior fellow at the U.S.-based Center for a New American Security, said such a vast pool of data would be extremely valuable in teaching AI systems to identify what exactly they are seeing, and what steps they should take.
"Humans can do this intuitively, but machines cannot, and they have to be trained on what is or isn't a road, or a natural obstacle, or an ambush," he said.
Kateryna Bondar, a fellow at Wadhwani AI centre at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, said the size of the data set and the image quality were important, as AI models learned to recognise targets based on shapes and colours.
Ukraine also has another system, called Avengers, developed by its defence ministry, which centralises and collects video from drones and CCTV.
The ministry declined to provide information about this system. However, it has previously said that Avengers spots 12,000 Russian pieces of equipment a week using AI identification tools.
Germany Announces New Deliveries of the IRIS-T and Gepard Systems
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has reaffirmed German’s commitment to supporting Ukraine’s defense by announcing the delivery of another IRIS-T air defense system and the Gepard self-propelled anti-aircraft artillery system. The announcement came during a press briefing on December 19, following the European Council meeting in Brussels. Defense Express reports.
“Another IRIS-T system is being delivered, I believe, today, as well as the Gepard system, which we continue to supply along with all the necessary ammunition, the production of which we have resumed,” Olaf Scholz stated.
This marks the latest addition to Germany’s extensive military aid to Ukraine. The delivery aligns with previous commitments, including the sixth fire unit of the IRIS-T SLM system. Moreover, two additional IRIS-T SLS launchers are scheduled for delivery by the end of 2024, according to German Aid to Ukraine.
The IRIS-T SLM is a state-of-the-art medium-range air defense system capable of intercepting a wide range of aerial threats, including missiles, drones, and aircraft. The Gepard system enhances close-range air defense, providing critical protection against low-flying targets.
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