THE RUSSO-UKRAINE WAR BRIEF
For: 2024-12-11
Slava Ukraini! In early 2022 I began a Telegram channel aggregating news from a number of sources daily on the war in Ukraine. In June 2023 I began providing a daily draft for the Ukraine War Brief Podcast collecting news from over 70 sources daily, which formed the basis of the script. While the Podcast no longer exists I have continued to make this Brief available for my followers here on Substack for those who wish to keep up with the news from the war.
All the latest news on the Russo-Ukraine War 6 days per week
ALONG THE CONTACT LINE
GSAFU Morning Report
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in its Operational Information update at 22:00 on Dec 10 stated that day 1022 of the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation against Ukraine was about to begin.
During the past day, 199 combat engagements took place. Over the past 24 hours, the enemy carried out 2 missile strikes, 17 air strikes, 441 drone strikes and more than 3,000 artillery strikes across the positions of Ukrainian forces.
Over the past 24 hours, rocket troops and artillery of the Defense Forces have hit two control points, three ammunition warehouses and one concentration area of Russian invaders' personnel.
At the same time, Ukrainian soldiers continue to inflict losses in manpower and equipment on the occupying troops, exhausting the enemy along the entire front line and continue to disrupt the plans of Russian occupiers to advance deeper into the territory of Ukraine.
Air Force Daily Report
There has still been no report released by the Ukrainian Air Force over the last 48 hours, while their Telegram reports almost continuous use of Russian drones, missiles and guided bombs in the airspace of Ukraine.
The Russian Border Incursion
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in its Operational Information update at 08:00 on Dec 11 stated that the Defense Forces of Ukraine repelled 22 Russian attacks over the past 24 hours. Yet another battle is underway.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a US based think tank, in its Dec 10 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment reported that Russian forces recently advanced in the main Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast amid continued fighting in the area on Dec 10. Geolocated footage published on December 10 indicates that Russian forces advanced in southern Darino (southeast of Korenevo). Russian milbloggers continued to claim that Russian forces seized Plekhovo (southeast of Sudzha) and the nearby forest area and Novoivanovka (also southeast of Korenevo) on Dec 10. A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces advanced near Malaya Loknya (north of Sudzha) and repelled two Ukrainian counterattacks in the area.
Ukrainian sources reported on Dec 10 that Ukrainian forces repelled at least a platoon-sized Russian mechanized assault on an unspecified date, likely near Darino.
Another Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces attacked eastward near Kamyshevka (north of Sudzha) and toward Guyevo (south of Sudzha). Russian sources claimed that fighting continued near Pogrebki (northwest of Sudzha), Darino, Nikolayevo-Darino (southeast of Korenevo), and Guyevo. A Ukrainian company commander operating in the Kursk direction stated that Russian forces are using a wide array of both modern and Soviet-era vehicles in the Kursk direction, including modern T-90 main battle tanks. Elements of the Russian "Phoenix" Mining Battalion and drone operators of the Russian 56th Airborne (VDV) Regiment (7th VDV Division) are reportedly operating in the Kursk direction. Elements of the Russian 104th VDV Regiment (76th VDV Division) and 51st VDV Regiment (106th VDV Division) are reportedly operating near Darino and Nikolayevo-Darino, and elements of the Russian 1427th Motorized Rifle Regiment (a mobilized element of the Russian Territorial Troops) are operating near Kamyshevka.
The Khortytsia operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the northeastern part of Ukraine. )
Kharkiv Sector: Over the last day Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 7 Russian attacks in the area of Lyptsi and Starytsia.
Kupyansk Sector: Russian Forces carried out 11 offensive actions against Ukrainian defensive positions near Petropavlivka, Hlushkivka, Kolisynivka, Zahryzove and Lozova. 3 engagements are ongoing.
Lyman Sector: Russian Forces carried out 25 offensive actions against Ukrainian defensive positions near Zelenyi Hai, Kopanky, Nadiia, Cherneshchyna, Druzhelyubivka, Hrekivka, Makiivka, Terny, Yampolivka, Zarichne and Torske. 6 engagements are ongoing.
Siversk Sector: In this sector, over the last day, there has been no significant change in the combat environment, however Russia did conduct 1 air strike.
Kramatorsk Sector: Russian forces carried out 2 offensive actions against Ukrainian defences in the vicinity of Chasiv Yar and Bila Hora.
Toretsk Sector: Over the last day Russian forces carried out 9 offensive actions with air support near Dyliivka, Toretsk and Shcherbynivka. 2 engagements are ongoing.
The Tavria operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the central-eastern and southeastern part of Ukraine.)
Pokrovsk Sector : Over the last day in this sector, Russian Forces carried out 52 offensive actions against Ukrainian defensive positions in the vicinity of Myrolyubivka, Myrnohrad, Pokrovsk, Promin, Lysivka, Dachenske, Zelene, Shevchenko, Pishchane, Novotroitske and Pushkine. 3 engagements are ongoing.
Kurakhove Sector: Russia conducted 44 offensive actions in the vicinity of Zorya, Sontsivka, Stari Terny, Kurakhove, Dachne and Dalnje. 6 engagements are ongoing.
Vremivka Sector: Russian forces made 35 attempts to break through Ukrainian defences in the vicinity of Zelenyi Hai, Novodarivka, Makarivka, Rozlyv, Sukhi Yaly, and Kostiantynopolske. 3 engagements are ongoing.
Orikhiv Sector: Russian forces made 7 attempts to break through Ukrainian defences in the vicinity of Piatykhatky and Novoandriivka
The Odesa operational-strategic group
(Responsible for Kherson, Qırım, (also known as Crimea) and the Black Sea.)
Prydniprovsk Sector: In this sector, over the last day, there has been no significant change in the combat environment. Russian forces made 3 unsuccessful attempts to dislodge Ukrainian units from their positions.
TEMPORARILY OCCUPIED TERRITORIES
Nothing major to report.
THE HOME FRONT
Russian attacks against Ukraine kill 8, injure 57 over past day
Russian attacks across Ukraine killed at least eight civilians and injured at least 57 over the past day, The Kyiv Independent reported citing regional authorities early on Dec. 11.
Russia launched a missile attack against the city of Zaporizhzhia late on Dec. 10, destroying a clinic, killing seven people, and injuring 22, officials said. At least 20 residential buildings were damaged.
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Russian attacks against Kharkiv Oblast injured 19 people, Governor Oleh Syniehubov reported.
The vast majority — 17 — were recorded in the town of Zlatopil after Russia struck the city with two Iskander-M missiles, according to officials. Sixteen residential buildings were damaged.
A 63-year-old man was also injured in the village of Zapadne, and a 59-year-old woman in the village of Ivashky, Syniehubov said.
In Kherson Oblast, one person was killed and 15 injured in Russian attacks, according to Governor Oleksandr Prokudin.
One civilian was injured during a Russian attack against Kostiantynivka in Donetsk Oblast, Governor Vadym Filashkin said.
RUSSIAN WORLD
Defence Forces of Ukraine struck an oil depot in Russia.
On the night of December 11, the units of the Unmanned Systems Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine struck an oil base in the Bryansk region of Russia. The GSAFU reported on Facebook.
NP "Bryansk" is a main storage and distribution point for diesel and is actively used to supply the Russian army both by road and rail
According to the available information, there was a direct hit on the oil depot which caused an explosion, massive fire has started
The results of the damage is being clarified
Russia close to achieving goals in Ukraine war, Putin's spy chief says
Reuters reports that Russian President Vladimir Putin's foreign intelligence chief said on Tuesday that Russia was close to achieving its goals in Ukraine with Moscow holding what he said was the strategic initiative in all areas in the war.
Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine has left tens of thousands of dead, displaced millions and triggered the biggest crisis in relations between Moscow and the West since the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis.
"The situation on the front is not in Kyiv's favour," Sergei Naryshkin, the head of Russia's Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR), told Razvedchik, the official publication of the foreign intelligence agency.
"The strategic initiative in all areas belongs to us, we are close to achieving our goals, while the armed forces of Ukraine are on the verge of collapse," Naryshkin said.
Naryshkin added that for Russia, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy had lost legitimacy and "the ability to negotiate".
Naryshkin, who heads the main successor organisation to the Soviet-era KGB's First Chief Directorate, is one of the few senior Russian officials to have relatively regular contacts with senior U.S. and Western officials.
His views give an insight into thinking at the top levels of the Kremlin - which views the West's support for Ukraine as evidence that the United States is fighting a proxy war against Russia aimed at toppling Moscow's rulers.
U.S. President-elect Donald Trump on Sunday called for an immediate ceasefire and negotiations between Ukraine and Russia to end "the madness" of war.
Zelenskyy on Monday made the case for a diplomatic settlement to the war and raised the idea of foreign troops being deployed in Ukraine until it could join the NATO military alliance.
Trump, who has vowed to swiftly end the conflict, is returning to the White House at a time of Russian ascendancy. Moscow controls a chunk of Ukraine about the size of the American state of Virginia and is advancing at the fastest pace since the early days of the 2022 invasion.
Open source maps showed Russian forces pushing along the front, with fierce fighting in the towns of Kurakhove and Toretsk in Ukraine's east.
Reuters reported last month that Putin is open to discussing a Ukraine ceasefire deal with Trump but rules out making any major territorial concessions and insists Kyiv abandon ambitions to join NATO.
Putin has said Russia should be left fully in control of four Ukrainian regions his troops partially control at the moment for a peace deal to be done.
The West and Ukraine say the war is an brutal imperial-style land grab by Moscow - and have cautioned that if Putin wins, then the enemies of the West across the world will be emboldened.
The conflict in eastern Ukraine began in 2014 after a pro-Russian president was toppled in Ukraine's Maidan Revolution and Russia annexed Crimea, with Russian-backed separatist forces fighting Ukraine's armed forces.
INTERNATIONAL NEWS
New EU diplomatic chief urges Trump to take a “hawkish stance” on Russia
The new head of the European Union’s foreign affairs office, Kaja Kallas, advised U.S. President-elect Donald Trump on Dec. 11 to adopt a “hawkish stance” on Russia to effectively influence China, Politico reported.
According to Kallas, China is “learning from Russia,” and Western support for Kyiv will make Beijing think twice about invading Taiwan.
“If you don't want problems with China, I think you need to be very strong on Russia. If you're truly firm and don't give them what they want, it's more likely you won't face new wars,” she said.
The new EU diplomatic chief also stated that Russia legally has “legitimate claims” to assets frozen by the West after its invasion of Ukraine in early 2022. However, she added that the bloc should use the frozen funds to rebuild Ukraine before returning what remains. “But I doubt there will be anything left,” she concluded.
Russia tells its citizens to avoid travel to the West
Russia said on Wednesday that relations with the United States were so confrontational that Russian citizens should not travel to the United States, Canada and some EU countries because they were at risk of being "hunted" down by U.S. authorities. Reuters reports.
Maria Zakharova, a spokeswoman for the Russian Foreign Ministry, said that relations with the United States were teetering on the verge of rupture.
"In the context of the increasing confrontation in Russian-American relations, which are teetering on the verge of rupture due to the fault of Washington, trips to the United States of America privately or out of official necessity are fraught with serious risks," Zakharova told a news briefing.
"We urge you to continue to refrain from trips to the United States of America and its allied satellite states, including, first of all, Canada and, with a few exceptions, European Union countries, during these holidays," she said.
Russian and U.S. diplomats say the relationship between the two countries is worse than at any time since the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis due to disagreements over the Ukraine war.
Relations reached crisis point last month over Ukraine's use of U.S. and British missiles to strike Russian territory and Russia lowered its nuclear threshold.
Both Moscow and Washington accuse each other of detaining citizens on trumped-up charges that have no foundation.
Russia, Reeling from Syrian Regime’s Collapse, Bets on Chaos to Preserve Its Foothold
Russia’s leadership is betting that chaos and infighting among the Islamist rebels who overthrew Syria’s regime will allow Moscow to hang onto its strategically important foothold in the country, the Moscow Times reported on Dec 11 citing several Russian officials
The swift collapse of Bashar al-Assad's regime and his escape to Russia poses an unprecedented challenge for the Kremlin, which is already mired in its three-year invasion of Ukraine.
This foreign policy embarrassment could expand into a domestic political issue if Russian military personnel stationed in Syria are harmed.
While Russian diplomats agree that Moscow is unlikely to hold onto its Syrian military bases with Assad gone, one diplomat believes that potential internal conflicts within the victorious Syrian opposition could play in the Kremlin’s favor.
While Russian military special forces were helping to evacuate Assad to Russia, much like they did with Yanukovych 10 years before, Russian intelligence and diplomats were already trying to find ways out of this military and political debacle that threatens Russia's interests in the Middle East and Africa.
"Even before Assad's escape, it was clear that the situation was critical,” a Russian official and ex-diplomat told The Moscow Times on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the issue. “It's a major inconvenience. Our diplomats and intelligence services were ordered to adapt quickly, try to engage in dialogue and start building relations with the new authorities.”
The Kremlin’s failure to defend Assad has dealt a severe blow to its reputation, Alexander Gabuev, director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, told The Moscow Times.
"The demonstration that Russia does not abandon its own, unlike [U.S. President Barack] Obama — that Putin can draw red lines and is ready to speak from a position of strength, intervening in relatively distant regions and achieving his goals with toughness — all of this has crumbled like a house of cards," Gabuev said.
The opportunities afforded to Moscow in exchange for its backing of the Assad regime were "a very important trump card, which we now lack," a source close to the Russian Foreign Ministry told The Moscow Times.
The source insisted however that Assad’s downfall was "primarily a defeat for Iran, since Tehran invested more in Syria and lost more there."
Two Russian diplomats admitted to The Moscow Times that a complete Russian withdrawal from Syria, including the Tartus naval base and the Khmeimim Air Base, is likely.
"This will impact Russian logistics for supplying the Africa Corps and all these regional presence ambitions. Everything might break down. An alternative can be found, for example, Algeria, but in any case, everything will become much more complicated," Gabuev said.
By losing its bases in Syria, Russia will lose influence in both the Middle East and the West, said Boris Bondarev, a former diplomat of the Russian mission to the UN who resigned in protest of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
"Since 2014, Putin has used [Syria] as a platform to make Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Iran, Egypt and Israel, and naturally, Western European countries and the U.S., reckon with him," Bondarev told The Moscow Times.
In Moscow, there is still hope that despite its failure, which partially stems from investing most of its diplomatic efforts into Assad, Russia can maintain its presence in the Middle East.
“A lot can happen in Syria,” a Russian diplomat said. “The events there may just be the beginning. There is a colorful coalition, with different factions. Some of these groups maintain close ties with Moscow. I do not rule out that we might see the country's disintegration, or the central government's inability to maintain control over the entire country. So there is still a field of play for Russia.”
In any case, the fall of Assad has dealt an unprecedented blow to Moscow’s political and military influence in the Middle East.
“This may be Putin's most serious defeat in foreign policy in recent times,” Ruslan Suleymanov, a non-resident research fellow at the Azerbaijan-based Institute for Development and Diplomacy, told The Moscow Times.
Russian-occupied Abkhazia left without electricity due to hydroelectric station shutdown
Georgia's Russian-occupied region of Abkhazia lost all electricity supply due to the shutdown of the only power station supplying energy to the region, the Kyiv Independent reported on Dec 11, citing Russian state propaganda agency TASS.
The Enguri hydroelectric power station, partially located in Abkhazia, stopped working on Dec 11 due to critically low water levels in a nearby reservoir.
The region has recently faced energy shortages aggravated by a growing spat with its Russian patrons. Moscow has cut almost all funding, including money crucial for the energy sector, after Abkhazia's local council voted against a controversial investment agreement with Russia.
The full-blown energy crisis came even though the Abkhaz authorities appealed to Russia for assistance on Dec 6.
Russia has occupied Abkhazia and South Ossetia after a war with Tbilisi in 2008, backing local breakaway leadership. Both regions are internationally recognized as Georgia's sovereign soil.
Tensions arose between Moscow and Abkhazia in November following protests against a law that would permit Russians to purchase property in Abkhazia. The demonstrations culminated in the resignation of the region's head, Aslan Bzhania, and the local council voting down the law on Dec. 3.
Three days later, the Abkhaz authorities announced that nearly all Russian funding had ceased, save for pension payments.
MILITARY & TECH
Ukraine strikes Russian aircraft factory in Taganrog
On the night of Dec 11 Ukraine struck the Beriev Aircraft Company (TANKT) in Taganrog Defense Express reports. The exact weapons used in these attacks remain unknown.
Regarding the attack on Taganrog that hit around 150–160 km from the front line in Ukraine, some unofficial sources in russia claim the use of ATACMS ballistic missiles while local authorities mention drones.
The target of this strike was the Taganrog Aviation Scientific-Technical Complex named after G. M. Beriev. For this one, too, it's also not the first time suffering from a Ukrainian air attack. In March 2024, Ukrainian drones hit the hangar where an A-50 airborne radar aircraft of the russian Aerospace Forces was being repaired or serviced. This aircraft factory is also used as a base for russian Orion UAVs, one of which fell on the city this September.
Local authorities have not reported the consequences of Ukraine's attack on this enterprise but noted that residential buildings and a boiler house were damaged on Tsiolkovsky Street, which leads to this factory, the result being several dozen apartment buildings left without heating.
It is likely that Ukraine used a complex strike package involving both propeller driven drones and domestically produced missiles such as the Peklo, the first batch of which it was announced had recently been issued.
NATO representative states that NATO aims to strengthen Ukraine’s battlefield capabilities.
Patrick Turner, Head of the NATO Representation in Ukraine, said at a roundtable discussion hosted by Ukrinform, titled "Ukraine - NATO 2024: From Strengthening Partnership to Finding Ways to Security." that NATO Representation in Ukraine is focused on strengthening Ukraine's defensive and offensive capabilities on the battlefield. Ukrinform reported.
Turner explained that at the Washington Summit in July, NATO had pledged to provide Ukraine with over $40 billion in security assistance for 2024. He noted that nearly EUR 21 billion had already been delivered in the first half of the year, and efforts were being made to ensure that all promised contributions would be fulfilled by year's end. He emphasized that NATO's focus in Ukraine was to provide the necessary support and deliver on its commitments. Turner stressed that NATO sought to position Ukraine as strongly as possible on the battlefield, enhancing both its defensive and offensive capabilities with the appropriate systems.
He added that the NATO Representation in Ukraine would also help build relations between NATO and Ukraine on the country's path to membership.
Turner acknowledged that the issue of membership was crucial for Ukraine and pointed out that, during the Washington summit, it had been reaffirmed that Ukraine was on an irreversible path to NATO membership. He noted that all NATO Allies had agreed on Ukraine's future within the Alliance. According to Turner, work was underway to ensure Ukraine's membership, and NATO aimed to make Ukraine stronger, more compatible with NATO forces, and better prepared to integrate into the Alliance structure.
In this context, he praised the reforms Ukraine had already implemented in areas such as democratization, the economy, and security. He expressed satisfaction with Ukraine's continued commitment to these reforms, despite the ongoing war.
That’s it for today’s Brief folks if you would like to keep up with events in Ukraine daily please consider subscribing.
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