THE RUSSO-UKRAINE WAR BRIEF
For: 2024-10-28
Slava Ukraini! In early 2022 I began a Telegram channel aggregating news from a number of sources daily on the war in Ukraine. In June 2023 I began providing a daily draft for the Ukraine War Brief Podcast collecting news from over 70 sources daily, much of which formed the basis of the script. While the Podcast no longer exists I have continued to make this Brief available both on my own Substack and The People’s Media for those who wish to keep up with events on a daily basis.
All the latest news on the Russo-Ukraine War 6 days per week
ALONG THE CONTACT LINE
GSAFU Morning Report
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in its Operational Information update at 22:00 on Oct 27 stated that day 978 of the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation against Ukraine was about to begin.
During the past two days, 301 combat engagements took place. Over the past 48 hours, the enemy carried out 1 missile strike, 126 air strikes, 1,312 drone strikes and more than 7,000 artillery strikes across the positions of Ukrainian forces.
At the same time, Ukrainian soldiers continue to inflict losses in manpower and equipment on the occupying troops, exhausting the enemy along the entire front line and continue to disrupt the plans of Russian occupiers to advance deep into the territory of Ukraine.
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Air Force Daily Report
On the night of October 27, 2024 (from 9:00 p.m. on October 26), the enemy attacked with 80 attack UAVs of the "Shahed" type and unmanned aerial vehicles of an unknown type from the directions of Orel, Kursk, Primorsko-Akhtarsk - Russian Federation.
The air attack was repulsed by anti-aircraft missile troops, aviation, electronic warfare units and mobile fire groups of the Air Force and the Defense Forces of Ukraine.
As of 09:30, the downing of 41 enemy UAVs was confirmed in Odesa, Mykolaiv, Kherson, Kyiv, Sumy, Kirovohrad, Cherkasy, Zhytomyr, Khmelnytskyi and Chernihiv regions. Most enemy UAVs were shot down in Odesa and Kyiv regions.
In addition, 32 Russian drones were lost in location, one flew in the direction of Belarus.
On the night of October 28, 2024 (from 19.00 October 27) the opponent applied 100 "Shahed" attack UAVs and unmanned type drones from the directions of Kursk, Orel, Primors лоko-Akhtarsk - Russia.
The air attack was repelled by anti-aircraft missile troops, aviation, REB units and mobile fire groups of the Air Force and Defense Forces of Ukraine.
As of 10.30 it was confirmed 66 enemies of the UAVs had been destroyed in Sumy, Kharkiv, Chernihiv, Poltava, Kyiv, Zhytomyr, Rivne, Khmelnytsky, Ternopil, Mykolaiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kirovogradsk, Cherkasy regions. Most of the enemies of the UAVs were defeated in Kyiv, Cherkasy region and Khmelnytsky region.
In addition, 24 Russian drones were lost in location, 4 - flew towards Russia and Belarus. Unfortunately, there were hits on the civilian infrastructure of Ukraine.
The Russian Border Incursion
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a US based think tank, in its Oct 27 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment reported that Ukrainian forces recently advanced within the main Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast amid continued Ukrainian ground attacks in the area on Oct 27. Geolocated footage published on Oct 26 indicates that Ukrainian forces recently advanced southwest of Olgovka (east of Korenevo) and east of Kolmakov (east of Sudzha). Russian sources, including the Ministry of Defense (MoD), claimed on October 27 that Ukrainian forces attacked southeast of Korenevo near Zeleny Shlyakh, Novoivanvoka, Daryino, Nizhny Klin, Pogrebki, and Nikolaevo-Daryino; and southeast of Sudzha near Plekhovo.
Russian forces recently marginally advanced within the main Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast. Geolocated footage published on Oct 26 indicates that Russian forces recently marginally advanced southeast of Martynovka (northeast of Sudzha).
A Russian source claimed that Ukrainian forces attacked near Novy Put in Glushkovsky Raion, west of the main Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast, as of the evening of Oct 26.
The Khortytsia operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the northeastern part of Ukraine. )
Kharkiv Sector: Over the last day Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 2 Russian attacks in the area of Vovchansk.
Kupyansk Sector: Russian Forces carried out 20 offensive actions against Ukrainian defensive positions near Petropavlivka, Kivsharivka, Kolisynivka, Kruhlyakivka, Lozova, Vyshneve and Pershotravneve. 3 engagements continue.
Lyman Sector: Russian Forces carried out 15 offensive actions against Ukrainian defensive positions near Hrekivka, Makiivka, Novomykhailivka, Terny, Zarichne and Serebryanka. 2 engagements continue.
Siversk Sector: There has been no significant change in the combat environment in the last 24 hours.
Kramatorsk Sector: Russian forces carried out unsuccessful offensive action near 4 Orikhovo-Vasylivka and Predtechyne.
Russian Forces cross Defensive Canal near Chasiv Yar
The UK Ministry of Defence in their Oct 28 Intelligence Update on Ukraine stated Russian Forces have made gains into the heavily contested town of Chasiv Yar in eastern Ukraine. They have highly likely crossed the canal in southern Chasiv Yar and approached the town’s boundaries. In the central part of the canal district, it is likely Russian Forces have made limited advances west of the canal into the eastern part of Chasiv Yar. However, it is highly likely that the central and northern parts of the canal district remain fiercely contested, with Russian Forces unable to consolidate in these areas.
From mid-July 2024 until recently, Russian Forces had been unable to cross the canal due to extensive defensive measures taken by the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
Toretsk Sector: Russian forces carried out 5 unsuccessful offensive actions with air support near Toretsk Shcherbynivka and Nui-York.
The Tavria operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the central-eastern and southeastern part of Ukraine.)
Pokrovsk Sector : Russian forces conducted 27 attacks against Ukrainian defences concentrating in the vicinity of Myrolyubivka, Promin, Krutnyi Yar, Selydove and Vyshneve.
Kurakhove Sector: Russian forces conducted 36 attacks against Ukrainian defences in the vicinity of Novodmytrivka, Novoselydivka, Kurakhivka, Maksymilyanivka, Katerynivka and Antonivka. 4 engagements continue.
Vremivka Sector: Russian forces made 5 assaults against Ukrainian positions near Novoukrainka and Bohoyavlenka. 3 engagements continue.
Orikhiv Sector: There has been no significant change in the combat environment in the last 24 hours.
The Odesa operational-strategic group
(Responsible for Kherson, Qırım, (also known as Crimea) and the Black Sea.)
Prydniprovsk Sector: In this sector, over the last day, Russian forces made unsuccessful attempts to dislodge Ukrainian units from their positions on the left bank of the Dnipro.
TEMPORARILY OCCUPIED TERRITORIES
Nothing major to report.
THE HOME FRONT
Russian attacks against Ukraine kill 5, injure 38 over past day
Russian attacks across Ukraine killed at least five people and injured at least 38 over the past day, including children, regional authorities reported on Oct. 28. TYhe Kyiv Independent reports.
At least 21 people were injured overnight, including five children, as Russia launched multiple air attacks on Ukraine’s northeastern Kharkiv Oblast, the State Emergency Service reported.
The attack damaged a high-rise building and destroyed at least three apartments in the city of Kharkiv, according to Mayor Ihor Terekhov.
Ukrainian air defenses shot 66 Russian attack drones and 24 of them were lost across various regions, the Air Force said.
In Kherson Oblast, Russian strikes killed five people and injured 13, with one child among the injured. Russian forces targeted critical infrastructure facilities, a medical facility, and residential areas in the region, Governor Oleksandr Prokudin said on his Telegram channel.
A woman and two men were injured as a result of Russian attacks in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Governor Ivan Fedorov said that at least seven buildings were damaged during the strikes.
In Donetsk Oblast, one person was injured and more than 50 buildings were damaged as a result of Russian strikes, Governor Vadym Filashkin reported on his Telegram channel.
RUSSIAN WORLD
Ukrainian Drones Attack Ethanol Plants in Russia’s Voronezh Region
Authorities in southern Russia’s Voronezh region said early Monday that Ukrainian drones attacked two industrial sites overnight, with Russian media reporting that the unmanned aircraft targeted ethanol spirit plants. The Moscow Times reports.
Voronezh region Governor Alexander Gusev said one attack took place in the region’s Anninsky District, where two workers were injured in a fire that broke out at an industrial facility. A second strike happened in the Novokhopyorsky District, with no injuries reported.
Russia’s Defense Ministry said one Ukrainian drone was destroyed over the Voronezh region overnight and a second the previous evening.
Gusev did not specify what kind of industrial sites were targeted in the overnight strikes, but several Telegram news channels with connections to Russian law enforcement claimed the drones attacked ethanol spirit plants.
Last week, Ukrainian drone strikes caused a fire at an ethanol plant in the Tambov region and two distilleries in the Tula region. Ukraine’s national security authorities confirmed those attacks, claiming they were disguised military facilities.
Russia’s Economy under extreme strain.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a US based think tank, in its Oct 27 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment reported that Russia's economy and war effort is coming under increasing strain, which will pose increasingly acute challenges to Russian President Vladimir Putin's ability to sustain the war over the long term. The Washington Post reported on Oct 27 that the Russian economy is "in danger of overheating," noting that Russia's excessively high military spending has fueled economic growth in a way that has forced Russian companies to artificially raise their salaries in order to fulfil labour demands by remaining competitive with Russia’s high military salaries.
The Washington Post quoted Russian Central Bank Head Elvira Nabiullina, who warned in July 2024 that Russia's labour force and production capacity are "almost exhausted." The Washington Post noted that private Russian companies are struggling to keep up with Russian military salaries and are increasingly having to offer wages several times higher than the typical industry averages. ISW has recently reported that Russian regional authorities are significantly increasing the one-time signing bonuses for Russian contract servicemembers in order to sustain Russia’s rate of force generation (roughly 30,000 troops per month), which underscores the fact that Russia does not have an indefinite pool of manpower and must financially and socially reckon with the ever-growing costs of replenishing its frontline losses via various force-generation avenues.
The Washington Post also noted that Russia's stringent migration policies, particularly after the March 2024 Crocus City Hall attack, have further depleted Russia's labour pool and amplified economic frictions. This has particularly become the case as migrant workers are increasingly identifying Russia as a hostile and unattractive place to relocate for work.
ISW has reported at length on the balance that Putin is trying to strike between catering to his pro-war ultranationalist constituency, which espouses extreme anti-migrant sentiments, and his practical need to leverage migrant labour both economically and militarily.
Putin very likely assesses that calling another partial mobilisation wave, or introducing general mobilisation, will be too costly to his regime, and has therefore resorted to crypto-mobilisation efforts that appear to be placing greater and greater strains on the Russian wartime economy.
The recent appearance of North Korean troops in Russia, and their reported deployment to the combat zone in Kursk Oblast, further suggests that Putin's entire force-generation system is very tenuous.
The costs of fueling the war will increase as Russia continues to burn through manpower and materiel on the frontline. Russian resources are finite, and Putin cannot reckon with these costs indefinitely. Russia's economy will reach a burnout point. That burnout point will inflict great costs on Russian society, which may force Putin to make major decisions about how to resource Russia’s war or change Russia’s mode of warfighting to preserve his regime’s stability.
Wounded Russian Soldiers Are Being Forced into Assaults
Russian forces are intensifying their offensive operations near the city of Lyman in Donetsk region, deploying additional assault units from the 283rd and 488th Motor Rifle Divisions to the frontline. The effort aims to accelerate the pace of attacks, even as Russian troops face substantial resistance and losses inflicted by the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Defense Express reports.
Ukrainian forces have managed to deal considerable damage to the newly arrived Russian assault groups, with some units reportedly losing combat effectiveness. Demoralization appears to be spreading among Russian soldiers, many of whom are openly reluctant to engage in further combat. The lack of effective cover from Ukrainian drones has compounded their reluctance, leading to further attrition within their ranks.
In an attempt to maintain the offensive momentum, Russian commanders are using coercive tactics, pressuring lightly wounded soldiers to participate in what are now being termed meat assaults – waves of attacks in which personnel are forced to engage despite injuries. This approach reflects the command’s desperation to continue offensive operations despite the significant toll inflicted by Ukrainian defences.
INTERNATIONAL NEWS
Georgian elections accompanied by vote buying, intimidation, European monitors say
The Georgian parliamentary elections were marred by intimidation and irregularities before and during the vote, European monitors said on Oct. 27 after the ruling party claimed victory. The Kyiv Independent reports.
The country's electoral commission said the ruling Moscow-friendly Georgian Dream party won 53.9% in the Oct. 26 vote that was described as pivotal for Georgia's EU aspirations.
Some pro-EU opposition parties refused to recognize the result and said the election was stolen, pointing to election monitors reporting various violations, including ballot stuffing and voter intimidation.
"During our observation, we noted the cases of vote buying and double voting before and during elections, especially in rural areas," said Ioan Bulai, the head of the delegation of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE).
"The presence of cameras of the ruling party in the polling stations, and people in front of polling stations tracking and possibly controlling voters, led to the atmosphere of pressure and party-organised intimidation."
Pascal Allizard, who led the mission of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), underscored "imbalances in financial resources, a divisive campaign atmosphere, and recent legislative amendments were of significant concern throughout this election process."
Allizard said the legal framework for the elections was "adequate" and the vote was "largely peaceful," though recent amendments reversed some previous positive changes.
Antonio Lopez-Isturiz White, the head of the European Parliament delegation, said that the "ruling party used anti-Western and hostile rhetoric, targeting Georgia’s democratic partners, in particular the European Union, its politicians and diplomats, promoted Russian disinformation, manipulation, and conspiracy theories."
The German Foreign Ministry declared that it "fully supports preliminary findings & conclusions" of the OSCE mission and is "concerned about the reported tense environment and irregularities."
Georgian President refuses to recognize election - calls for public protests
Georgian President Salome Zourabichvili said on Oct. 27 that she will not recognize the results of the country's recent parliamentary elections and called for citizens to join her in mass demonstrations. The Kyiv Independent reports.
"I do not recognize these elections," President Zourabichvili said in a press conference on Oct. 27, as reported by the Echo of the Caucasus.
"These elections cannot be recognized. This is the same as recognizing Georgia's subordination to Russia. ... No one can take away Georgia's European future."
Zourabichvili called the result a "total falsification" and described the election as a "Russian special operation." She urged citizens to join her at Tbilisi's Freedom Square on Rustaveli Avenue to protest the falsified election.
"We must stand together and declare that we do not recognize these elections, we do not tolerate Russia and its invasion of Georgia in this form," she said.
"We will stand together. ... I would like to invite you all to Rustaveli tomorrow, at 7 p.m., so that we can say together, declare to the whole world that we do not recognize these elections, we are defending constitutional rights."
The president's words echo those of former Prime Minister Giorgi Gakharia, an opposition leader, who said that the results "do not reflect the will of the Georgian people" and called for "reasonable forms of protest" to "defend the European future" of the country.
MILITARY & TECH
Canada ships first armoured combat support vehicles to Ukraine
Canada has provided Ukraine with a new shipment of Light Armored Vehicles (LAVs) 6.0 ACSV specially configured as ambulances, The Kyiv Independent reported following an announcement from the Canadian Armed Forces’ Operation UNIFIER announced on Oct. 26.
Armored Combat Support Vehicles (ACSVs) are an extension of the existing LAV 6.0 family of vehicles in service with the Canadian army.
Although the exact number of vehicles remains unknown, this delivery comes after extensive training for Ukrainian personnel in Germany.
This contribution is part of Canada’s ongoing military assistance to Ukraine, which has amounted to nearly $4.5 billion since 2022. In September 2023, Canada committed to transferring 50 LAV 6.0 ACSV to Ukraine over a three-year period, as part of a $650 million investment in military aid.
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