THE RUSSO-UKRAINE WAR BRIEF
For: 2024-10-31
Slava Ukraini! In early 2022 I began a Telegram channel aggregating news from a number of sources daily on the war in Ukraine. In June 2023 I began providing a daily draft for the Ukraine War Brief Podcast collecting news from over 70 sources daily, much of which formed the basis of the script. While the Podcast no longer exists I have continued to make this Brief available both on my own Substack and The People’s Media for those who wish to keep up with events on a daily basis.
All the latest news on the Russo-Ukraine War 6 days per week
ALONG THE CONTACT LINE
GSAFU Morning Report
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in its Operational Information update at 22:00 on Oct 30 stated that day 971 of the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation against Ukraine was about to begin.
During the past day, 134 combat engagements took place. Over the past 24 hours, the enemy carried out 1 missile strike, 58 air strikes, 663 drone strikes and more than 3,800 artillery strikes across the positions of Ukrainian forces.
At the same time, Ukrainian soldiers continue to inflict losses in manpower and equipment on the occupying troops, exhausting the enemy along the entire front line and continue to disrupt the plans of Russian occupiers to advance deep into the territory of Ukraine.
Air Force Daily Report
7 ENEMY UAVS AND 2 GUIDED AVIATION MISSILES WERE BROKEN DOWN
On the night of Oct 31, 2024 (from 18:30 on October 30), the enemy attacked the bridge across the Dniester estuary in Zatoka in Odesa. Two Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missiles were launched from Crimea and eight Kh-59/69 guided air missiles from tactical aircraft over the Black Sea.
Also, the occupiers attacked Kramatorsk with two Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missiles from the Rostov region.
From the directions of Kursk, Orel — Russian Federation. the enemy attacked with 43 attack UAVs of the "Shahed" type and unmanned aerial vehicles of an unknown type.
The air attack was repulsed by anti-aircraft missile forces, electronic warfare units and mobile fire groups of the Air Force and the Defense Forces of Ukraine.
Anti-aircraft defense worked in Odesa, Kyiv, Cherkasy, Kirovohrad, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhya, Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk and Poltava regions.
In addition to the downing of two Kh-59/69 guided air missiles in the evening in Odesa, as of 08:00, the shooting down of 17 enemy UAVs was confirmed. 23 drones were lost in location, three more Russian UAVs left the controlled airspace in the direction of the Russian Federation and the temporarily occupied territory of Ukraine. Information is being clarified and updated.
The Russian Border Incursion
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a US based think tank, in its Oct 30 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment reported that Russian forces recently advanced in the main Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast amid continued fighting in the area on Oct 30. Geolocated footage published on Oct 29 indicates that Russian forces recently advanced in central Novoivanovka (southeast of Korenevo).
Russian sources, including the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD), claimed that Ukrainian forces counterattacked southeast of Korenevo near Darino, Nizhny Klin, Nikolayevo-Darino, Novoivanovka, and Tolsty Lug and southeast of Sudzha near Plekhovo.Russian milbloggers claimed that large parts of Novoivanovka are contested "grey zones" and that Russian forces pushed Ukrainian forces out of Martynovka (northeast of Sudzha). ISW has not observed confirmation of this claimed Russian advance, however. A Russian source claimed that Russian forces entered Plekhovo, but later stated that Russian military sources in the area reported that Russian forces are unable to gain a foothold in the area. The spokesperson of a Ukrainian brigade operating in Kursk Oblast reported on Oct 29 that Russian forces have switched to using motorcycles, all-terrain vehicles (ATVs), and trucks following Ukrainian strikes against Russian heavy equipment.
The spokesperson stated that elements of the Russian 155th Naval Infantry Brigade (Pacific Fleet, Eastern Military District [EMD]) are operating in Kursk Oblast but are less combat effective following their defeat in Vuhledar in Winter 2022-2023 and are supplementing their previously "elite" forces with convict recruits.
The spokesperson reported that elements of the 810th Naval Infantry Brigade (Black Sea Fleet, Southern Military District [SMD]) and 56th VDV Regiment (7th VDV Division) are also operating in Kursk Oblast. Elements of the Russian 137th Airborne (VDV) Regiment (106th VDV Division) are reportedly operating near Zeleny Shlyakh (southeast of Korenevo).
Neither Russian nor Ukrainian sources reported fighting in Glushkovsky Raion west of the main Ukrainian salient on October 30. Elements of the 106th VDV Division are reportedly operating in Glushkovsky Raion.
The Khortytsia operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the northeastern part of Ukraine. )
Kharkiv Sector: Over the last day Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 1 Russian attack in the area of Vovchansk.
Kupyansk Sector: Russian Forces carried out 20 offensive actions against Ukrainian defensive positions near Petropavlivka, Pishchane, Novoosynove, Kolisynivka, Kruhlyakivka, Zahryzove, Bohuslavka, Lozova, Zelenyi Hai, Vyshneve and Pershotravneve. 2 engagements continue.
Lyman Sector: Russian Forces carried out 11 offensive actions against Ukrainian defensive positions near Druzhelyubivka, Hrekivka, Katerynivka, Terny, Zarichne and the Serebryanskyy Forest. 1 engagement continues.
Siversk Sector: Russian forces carried out 2 unsuccessful offensive actions near Bilohorivka and Verkhnokamianske.
Kramatorsk Sector: Russian forces carried out 1 unsuccessful offensive action near Chasiv Yar.
Toretsk Sector: There has been no significant change in the combat environment in the last 24 hours.
The Tavria operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the central-eastern and southeastern part of Ukraine.)
Pokrovsk Sector : Russian forces conducted 26 attacks against Ukrainian defences concentrating in the vicinity of Myrolyubivka, Myrnohrad, Promin, Krutnyi Yar, Sukhyi Yar, Lysivka, Novohrodivka, Selydove and Vyshneve. 4 engagements continue.
Kurakhove Sector: Today the heaviest exchanges took place in this sector. Russian forces conducted 36 attacks against Ukrainian defences in the vicinity of Novodmytrivka, Kreminna Balka, Voznesenka, Novoselydivka, Kurakhivka, Illinka, Hostre, Maksymilyanivka, Dalnje, Yelyzavetivka, Katerynivka and Antonivka. 13 engagements continue.
Vremivka Sector: Russian forces, supported by aviation, made 5 assaults against Ukrainian positions near Novoukrainka, Maksymivka and Bohoyavlenka. 1 engagement continues.
Orikhiv Sector: There has been no significant change in the combat environment in the last 24 hours. Russia did however conduct several airstrikes against Ukrainian positions.
The Odesa operational-strategic group
(Responsible for Kherson, Qırım, (also known as Crimea) and the Black Sea.)
Prydniprovsk Sector: In this sector, over the last day, Russian forces made unsuccessful attempts to dislodge Ukrainian units from their positions on the left bank of the Dnipro.
TEMPORARILY OCCUPIED TERRITORIES
Ukrainian drones strike Berdiansk port under Russian occupation
Ukrainian drones conducted a targeted attack on the maritime port of Berdiansk in southern Ukraine overnight on Oct 31, Euromaidan Press reported, citing Vladimir Rogov, a Russian-appointed member of the Public Chamber of the Russian Federation.
Rogov reported that at least six drones targeted the port, though he did not provide details about the attack’s consequences. As a result of the incident, the occupation authorities announced the closure of schools, kindergartens, and other public facilities on Oct 31.
The Russian Ministry of Defense reported early on Oct 31 that they had intercepted and destroyed 21 Ukrainian drones over six Russian regions and the Black Sea area.
At the time of publication, Ukrainian officials had not commented on the alleged attack, and the outcome remained uncertain.
Grumpy Here - Just yesterday we reported that Russian troop movements had been noted through the Berdiansk area. It appears the AFU was paying attention.
THE HOME FRONT
Russian attack on a apartment building in Kharkiv kills 3, injures 35
Russia attacked a residential neighbourhood in the city of Kharkiv late in the evening on Oct. 30, killing a man and two boys aged 12 and 15, and injuring at least 35 others, regional authorities have said. The Kyiv Independent reports.
According to preliminary data, the attack was carried out with a high-explosive FAB-500 bomb, Kharkiv Oblast Governor Oleh Syniehubov said.
"Partners see what happens every day. In these circumstances, every delayed decision on their part means dozens or even hundreds more Russian bombs used against Ukraine," President Volodymyr Zelensky posted on X following the attack.
"Their decisions are the lives of our people. That is why we must stop Russia together — and do so with all possible force."
The attack hit a 9-story building, destroying the entryway from the first through fifth floors, the State Emergency Service reported. Fires are being extinguished in several apartments and rescuers are searching for more victims who may be trapped beneath the rubble.
Several injured people, including a child, have already been pulled from the debris, Mayor Ihor Terekhov said.
The northeastern city of Kharkiv has suffered relentless Russian attacks for over the past two years of Russia's full-scale war. In recent months, Moscow has intensified aerial strikes, often targeting densely populated neighbourhoods.
RUSSIAN WORLD
Russia’s Central Bank Chief Vows ‘Tough’ Response in Fight Against Inflation
Russian Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina warned Thursday that “more drastic changes” in monetary policy may be needed as the country’s rumbling war economy drives inflation far above target levels, the Moscow Times reports.
Nabiullina’s comments, made to a group of State Duma lawmakers, come a week after the Central Bank hiked its key rate to a record-high 21%, taking it even further than the emergency rate initially introduced after the February 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
“With high inflation, economic growth cannot be sustainable,” the Central Bank head told lawmakers. “It’s a dangerous illusion to think that increased inflation can be reliably kept within a certain zone.”
“That’s why we’re not planning to take any shortcuts as we move toward our 4% target,” she added, defending the regulator’s tight monetary policy as an “inevitable reaction to what’s happening in the economy.”
Central Bank authorities updated their annual inflation forecast to 8-8.5% by the end of 2024. That adjustment is significantly higher than their earlier forecast of 6.5-7% inflation for this year.
Russia’s draft budget for 2025, passed by lawmakers in its first reading last week, allocates around one-third of total state spending — or 6.3% of GDP — to the military, a figure unprecedented since the days of the Cold War.
Given that so much of the current spending is driven by the state, which is less responsive to higher borrowing costs, analysts fear that raising interest rates may not be an effective measure against inflation.
Nabiullina said Thursday that she believes interest rates remain a powerful instrument in policymakers’ toolkit, but emphasized current economic conditions meant that “more drastic changes are needed to make it work.”
Analysts have cautioned that Russia may be entering a period of “inflation without growth,” while also warning the economy is inching closer toward stagflation — when the economy grows slowly and prices shoot up.
INTERNATIONAL NEWS
ITU limits Russian influence in global telecom research groups
Russians will be barred from leadership positions in the International Telecommunication Union's (ITU) research groups for the next three years, New Voice reported citing the Digital Transformation Ministry on Telegram on Oct 31.
The decision, made during the World Telecommunication Standardization Assembly, limits the access of Russians to global telecommunications processes, allowing them only to observe research results without being able to influence standards or technological development.
The decision was supported by 40 countries, including the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, Japan, France, and Poland.
The ITU is a specialised UN agency responsible for setting communications standards, managing radio frequencies and satellite orbits, and helping countries develop their telecommunications infrastructure. With 193 member countries, the ITU's standards have a significant impact on the global telecommunications industry.
The Ministry believes that excluding representatives of the "aggressor country" will strengthen international law and global telecommunications security.
Tomahawk missile request leak shows Western hesitation in support, Zelenskyy says.
The publication of classified information on Ukraine's request for Tomahawk missiles indicates that the allies are delaying decisions, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said at a meeting with the heads of territorial communities and districts of Zakarpattya Oblast on Oct. 31. New Voice reports.
If secret details of the Victory Plan become public, it can be interpreted as a sign that the Western partners are not genuinely interested in providing the requested assistance.
Zelenskyy expressed his frustration with the leak to the media, but clarified that Ukraine had not revealed all the details of the Victory Plan to its partners.
Recent media reports suggested that Zelenskyy had asked Washington to provide Tomahawks as part of the Victory Plan presented to Ukraine’s Western allies. Subsequent reports indicate that this idea has not gained widespread support in Washington.
While the United States does export Tomahawk missiles with a range of 1,600 kilometres to other countries, they are supplied to an extremely limited list of close U.S. allies. The most recent country to be allowed to purchase these expensive missiles is Japan.
MILITARY & TECH
Ukraine rolls out dozens of AI systems to help its drones hit targets
Ukraine is using dozens of domestically made AI-augmented systems for its drones to reach targets on the battlefield without being piloted, a senior official said, disclosing new details about the race against Russia to harness automation. Reuters reports.
Systems that use artificial intelligence allow cheap drones carrying explosives to spot or fly to their targets in areas protected by extensive signal jamming, which has reduced the effectiveness of manually piloted drones.
The shift towards the use of AI, particularly in drone target finding and flight control, is an important emerging front in the technology race that has unfolded since Russia launched its full-scale invasion in February 2022.
"There are currently several dozen solutions on the market from Ukrainian manufacturers ... they are being purchased and delivered into the armed forces and other defence forces," Ukraine's deputy defence minister Kateryna Chernohorenko said of drone AI systems.
Automated drone systems are in high demand among soldiers searching for ways to beat the rapidly increasing use of electronic warfare on the battlefield.
Electronic warfare systems create a protective dome around their location by sending out powerful signals that disrupt communication between drones and their pilots, causing them to lose control of the craft and miss their target.
These systems, once only used to protect the highest-value pieces of equipment, have become a common feature in trenches and on regular vehicles used by soldiers as they seek to protect themselves from the threat of first person view (FPV) drones.
A Ukrainian official told Reuters in July that most first person view units' target strike rate had fallen to 30%-50%, while for new pilots that can be as low as 10%, and that signal jamming was the main problem.
The official predicted that AI-operated first person view drones could achieve hit rates of around 80%.
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