THE RUSSO-UKRAINE WAR BRIEF
For: 2024-10-19
Slava Ukraini! In early 2022 I began a Telegram channel aggregating news from a number of sources daily on the war in Ukraine. In June 2023 I began providing a daily draft for the Ukraine War Brief Podcast collecting news from over 70 sources daily, much of which formed the basis of the script. While the Podcast no longer exists I have continued to make this Brief available both on my own Substack and The People’s Media for those who wish to keep up with events on a daily basis.
All the latest news on the Russo-Ukraine War 6 days per week
ALONG THE CONTACT LINE
GSAFU Morning Report
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in its Operational Information update at 22:00 on Oct 18 stated that day 969 of the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation against Ukraine was about to begin.
During the past day, 195 combat engagements took place. Over the past 24 hours, the enemy carried out 2 missile strikes, 47 air strikes, 674 drone strikes and more than 3,000 artillery strikes across the positions of Ukrainian forces.
At the same time, Ukrainian soldiers continue to inflict losses in manpower and equipment on the occupying troops, exhausting the enemy along the entire front line and continue to disrupt the plans of Russian occupiers to advance deep into the territory of Ukraine.
Air Force Daily Report
On the night of October 19, 2024 (from 9:00 p.m. on October 18), the Russian invaders attacked Ukraine with guided air missiles (launch area - the Black Sea), "Shahed" type UAVs and drones of an unknown type (launch areas: Kursk, Yeisk, Primorsko -Akhtarsk - Russian Federation).
Over 100 air targets were identified and escorted by the radio engineering troops of the Air Force: up to 98 enemy drones and six Kh-59/69 guided air missiles.
The air attack was repulsed by aviation, anti-aircraft missile forces, electronic warfare units and mobile fire groups of the Air Force and the Defense Forces of Ukraine.
As of 12:00 p.m., 4 Kh-59/69 guided air missiles were shot down as a result of anti-aircraft combat.
Also at this hour there is confirmation of the downing of 42 enemy UAVs in Odesa, Sumy, Cherkasy, Kyiv, Kirovohrad, Chernihiv, Poltava, Mykolaiv and Kherson regions.
46 Russian drones are currently lost to location, the information regarding the downing/falling is being clarified and updated.
Several enemy UAVs are still in the airspace of Ukraine. Combat work continues!
The Russian Border Incursion
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a US based think tank, in its Oct 18 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment reported that Russian forces recently advanced within the main Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast amid continued fighting along the salient on Oct 18. Geolocated footage published on Oct 18 shows that Russian forces, reportedly elements of the Russian 155th Naval Infantry Brigade (Pacific Fleet, Eastern Military District [EMD]), advanced in fields west of Malaya Loknya (north of Sudzha) during a roughly platoon-sized mechanized assault. Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces have formed tactical semi-encirclements of Ukrainian forces near Lyubimovka and Tolsty Lug (both southeast of Korenevo), that Ukrainian forces are withdrawing from Zeleny Shlyakh (immediately east of Lyubimovka) and Plekhovo (south of Sudzha), and that Russian forces may have seized Plekhovo. Milbloggers claimed that Russian forces also advanced southeast of Korenevo near Zeleny Shlyakh and Darino; east of Korenevo near Kremyanoye and in Olgovka; northeast of Sudzha in Cherkasskoye Porechnoye, Mykhailivka, and Martynovka; north of Sudzha near Malaya Loknya; east of Sudzha near Agronom; and southeast of Sudzha near Plekhovo and Fanaseyevka. ISW has not observed visual confirmation of these Russian claims. Russian sources claimed that Russian forces repelled Ukrainian counterattacks near Zeleny Shlyakh and Lyubimovka. Elements of the Russian 22nd Spetsnaz Brigade (Russian General Staff Main Directorate [GRU]) reportedly continue to operate in Kursk Oblast, and elements of the Russian 106th Airborne (VDV) Division reportedly continue to operate near Lyubimovka.
Fighting continued in Glushkovsky Raion west of the main Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast near Novy Put (southwest of Glushkovo) on Oct 18, but there were no confirmed changes to the frontline. A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces pushed Ukrainian forces from Novy Put.
Belgorod Oblast Head Vyacheslav Gladkov denied reports on Oct 18 that a Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance group entered Zhuravlevka, Belgorod Oblast (north of Kharkiv City across the international border) and claimed that Russian forces still fully control the village.
The Khortytsia operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the northeastern part of Ukraine. )
Kharkiv Sector: Over the last day Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 1 Russian attack in the area of Vovchansk.
Kupyansk Sector: Russian Forces carried out 23 offensive actions against Ukrainian defensive positions near Holubivka, Petropavlivka, Pishchane, Stepova Novoselivka, Novosynove, Kolsynkivka, Vyshneve and Nadyia [Southeast of Vyshneve].
Lyman Sector: Russian Forces carried out 14 offensive actions against Ukrainian defensive positions near Druzhelyubivka, Hrekivka, Makiivka, Terny and Torske. 1 engagement continues.
Siversk Sector: There has been no significant change in the combat environment in the last 24 hours.
Kramatorsk Sector: Russian forces carried out 2 offensive actions near Chasiv Yar and Stupochky.
Toretsk Sector: Russian forces carried out 7 unsuccessful offensive actions with air support near Toretsk and Dyliivka.
The Tavria operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the central-eastern and southeastern part of Ukraine.)
Pokrovsk Sector : Russian forces conducted 34 attacks against Ukrainian defences in the vicinity of Promin, Mykhailivka and Selydove. 6 engagements are ongoing.
Kurakhove Sector: Russian forces conducted 54 attacks against Ukrainian defences in the vicinity of Novodmytrivka, ,Novoselydivka, Hirnyk, Zhelanne Pershe, Kurakhivka, Heorhiivka, Konstantinivka, Antonivka and Dalnje. 4 engagements continue.
Vremivka Sector: Russian forces made 10 assaults against Ukrainian positions near Novoukrainka and Bohoyavlenka.
Orikhiv Sector: Russian forces made 1 assault against Ukrainian positions near Novodanlivka.
The Odesa operational-strategic group
(Responsible for Kherson, Qırım, (also known as Crimea) and the Black Sea.)
Prydniprovsk Sector: In this sector, over the last day, Russian forces made 6 unsuccessful attempts to force Ukrainian units from their positions on the left bank of the Dnipro.
TEMPORARILY OCCUPIED TERRITORIES
Russian major killed by car bomb in occupied Luhansk, Ukraine's intelligence claims
Russian Major Dmitriy Pervukha was killed in the centre of Russian-occupied Luhansk after his car exploded, The Kyiv Independent reported citing Ukraine's military intelligence (HUR) on Oct. 19.
"On Oct. 18, 2024, at about 11:40 a.m., a UAZ Patriot car exploded" on one of the streets in Luhansk, HUR said on Telegram. Pervukha was inside the car, according to HUR.
Pervukha was allegedly involved in war crimes against Ukraine. He served in the 273rd Intelligence Center of the Russian Armed Forces , located in Russia's Novosibirsk.
In the occupied territories of Ukraine, Pervukha held the position of the so-called “chief of staff for military service and security of military service,” according to HUR.
Russian Investigative Committee announced that a criminal case was opened on Oct. 18 to investigate the explosion that killed an unnamed man and wounded a woman in another car.
While HUR called Pervukha "a war criminal" and said that every crime against Ukraine would be "justly punished," it didn't claim responsibility for the attack.
Since the beginning of Russia's full-scale invasion, numerous assassinations of Russian military commanders, officials, and collaborators via car bombs were reported in the Russian-occupied Crimea, parts of Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts.
THE HOME FRONT
95 Ukrainian defenders return from Russian captivity, including Azov fighters and POWs facing life sentences
Among those released was Maksym Butkevych, a Ukrainian human rights activist and serviceman, who was captured near Luhansk in 2022 and sentenced to 13 years in Russia. The exchange also saw the return of Vladyslav Andrianov, an Azov fighter who survived the Olenivka prison massacre and faced a 25-year sentence in Russia. Euromaidan Press reports.
Ukraine successfully negotiated the return of 95 of its defenders from Russian captivity on 19 October, 20 of whom were facing life imprisonment in Russia for defending Ukraine.
Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs) held in Russia often report inhumane treatment and systematic torture, such as beatings, starvation, electric shocks, and sexual violence, aimed at extracting confessions or punishing detainees. Russia disregards international humanitarian norms, leaving prisoners traumatized and in poor health. Conversely, Ukraine treats Russian POWs under international norms.
The Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War noted that many of the freed individuals have serious illnesses and consequences of severe injuries, as well as significant weight loss due to torture and malnutrition in Russian captivity.
Among those released were defenders of Mariupol and Azovstal, as well as soldiers from various oblasts including Donetsk, Luhansk, Kharkiv, Kyiv, Chernihiv, and Kherson, according to Dmytro Lubinets, Ukrainian Commissioner for Human Rights.
Notably, 34 fighters from the 12th Brigade of the National Guard Azov returned home, despite Russia’s reluctance to exchange Azov soldiers who it views as “nazis” because they stand as symbols of Ukrainian resistance and independence since 2014.
Russian missiles, bombs, drones hit energy infrastructure, homes, cause power outages
Russian forces launched a missile attack on Odesa overnight on Oct. 19, causing a fire and damaging more than ten houses and cars, New Voice reports citing Oleh Kiper, the head of the Odesa Oblast Military Administration reported on Telegram.
The Russians targeted a residential area near Odesa, where a large number of houses are located. As a result of the attack, a three-story building and two passenger cars caught fire.
The Russian military also launched an attack on the Shostka community in Sumy Oblast overnight on Oct. 18, using guided aerial bombs and kamikaze drones, injuring seven people, according to the Sumy Oblast Military Administration.
Government data indicates that air defence forces shot down three kamikaze drones.
The attack damaged energy infrastructure and other facilities, leaving several settlements in the Shostka district without power.
Energy workers are currently addressing the consequences of the attack, and electricity supply has been partially restored, the administration reported.
Meanwhile, Sumyoblenergo announced the implementation of emergency power outage schedules in Sumy Oblast. Power outages are expected in the Shostka, Konotop, and parts of the Sumy districts.
Several explosions were also reported near Cherkasy and within the city itself on the morning of Oct. 19, according to public broadcaster Suspilne, as the Ukrainian Air Force issued a warning about missiles heading towards the city.
RUSSIAN WORLD
Zelenskyy’s Nuclear Arms Comments ‘Dangerous Provocation’ – Putin
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's suggestion that Kyiv would seek nuclear weapons if it could not join NATO was a "dangerous provocation," Russian President Vladimir Putin said Friday. The Moscow Times reports.
The Ukrainian leader made the comments at an EU summit on Thursday, in which he said "either Ukraine will have nuclear weapons, which will protect us, or we must have some kind of alliance."
He was recalling a conversation he had had with former U.S. President Donald Trump about Ukraine giving up its nuclear arsenal after the collapse of the Soviet Union.
"This is a dangerous provocation," Putin said at a meeting with journalists from the BRICS group of emerging economies. "Any step in this direction will be met with a corresponding reaction.
"It is not difficult to create nuclear weapons in the modern world," he added.
"I do not know whether Ukraine is capable of doing it now, it is not so easy for Ukraine of today, but in general there is no great difficulty here."
Kremnii El plant in Bryansk attacked by drones, impacting Russian military production
In Bryansk, drones struck the Kremniy El plant, one of Russia's largest microelectronics manufacturers, igniting a fire, local residents told the Astra Telegram channel on Oct. 19.
Videos surfaced online following the attack, showing flames and smoke at the site.
Bryansk Oblast Governor Aleksandr Bogomaz reported that a non-residential building caught fire when a drone crashed into it, but he did not confirm an attack on the Kremniy El plant and noted there were no casualties.
The Russian Ministry of Defense claimed that its air defense forces "destroyed" four drones over Bryansk Oblast.
INTERNATIONAL NEWS
The latest regarding North Korean troops fighting for Russian
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a US based think tank, in its Oct 18 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment reported that South Korea's National Intelligence Service (NIS) reported that North Korea transferred roughly 1,500 North Korean special forces to eastern Russia, where they are reportedly training before deploying to participate in Russia's war against Ukraine. The NIS stated on Oct 18 that seven Russian Pacific Fleet ships transported roughly 1,500 North Korean special forces from Chongjin, Hamhung, and Musudan in North Korea to Vladivostok, Russia between Oct 8 and 13 and that North Korea will send a second batch of military personnel to Russia soon. The NIS stated that North Korean servicemembers are currently stationed in Vladivostok, Ussuriysk, Khabarovsk, and Blagoveshchensk in eastern Russia.
The NIS stated that the Russian military has issued the North Korean personnel Russian uniforms, weapons, and fake identification cards claiming that the North Koreans are residents of the Sakha and Buryatia republics. The NIS posted satellite imagery showing a Russian transport ship near North Korea and an estimated 640 North Korean personnel gathered at Russian military facilities in Ussuryisk and Khabarovsk on Oct 16. South Korea's Yonhap News Agency reported on Oct 18 that the NIS also stated that North Korea recently decided to send four brigades totaling 12,000 personnel to the war in Ukraine.
Ukraine's Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Head Lieutenant General Kyrylo Budanov told The War Zone on Oct 17 that there are nearly 11,000 North Korean infantry troops training in eastern Russia and that they will be ready to fight in Ukraine by Nov 1. Budanov stated that the first cadre of 2,600 North Korean soldiers will deploy to Kursk Oblast but that it is unclear where the remaining troops will deploy. ISW cannot independently verify these statements but has no basis to question the veracity of these intelligence reports, which are consistent with previous reports from South Korean and Ukrainian officials about North Korean troops training in Russia before deploying to the war in Ukraine, including to Kursk Oblast. ISW has also observed recent reports that a limited number of North Korean military personnel, mainly engineering personnel, are likely operating near occupied Donetsk City.
A number of sources provided footage purporting to substantiate these intelligence reports. The footage appears consistent with reports of North Korean troop deployments to Russia but does not independently validate the intelligence reports. A Russian Telegram channel posted footage on October 18 purportedly showing North Korean soldiers marching at a Russian training ground, and the footage was later geolocated to Sergeevka, Primorsky Krai. Ukrainian outlet Suspilne, along with Vox Ukraine's fact-checking project VoxCheck, reported that they could neither confirm nor deny that the soldiers in the footage are North Korean as the speech in the video is hard to hear and there are no clear external signs to indicate that the soldiers are North Korean. The Ukrainian Center for Strategic Communications (Stratcom) posted additional footage on Oct 18 reportedly showing Russian forces outfitting North Korean troops with Russian uniforms and equipment at the Sergeevka training ground. ISW cannot independently verify the presence of North Korean troops in either of the videos and cannot verify the location of the second video.
Suspilne stated that the footage of North Korean troops marching was filmed at the base of the Russian 127th Motorized Rifle Division (5th Combined Arms Army, Eastern Military District) in Sergeevka. ISW has observed reports that elements of the 127th Division's 143rd Motorized Rifle Regiment were operating in Kursk Oblast as of late August 2024, while other elements of the division, including its 394th Motorized Rifle Regiment, have been operating in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area since at least June 2024. Both the 394th and 143rd motorised rifle regiments are based in Sergeevka. ISW continues to assess that the Kremlin is likely leveraging its June 2024 Russia-North Korea comprehensive strategic partnership agreement, which Russian President Vladimir Putin submitted for ratification on October 14, to in part offset Russian force generation and border security requirements – further cementing Putin's commitment to avoiding mobilisation for as long as possible.
Congress demands Biden's response to North Korean troops participation in war against Ukraine
Mike Turner, Chair of the House Intelligence Committee in the United States, has demanded an "immediate" briefing from the White House amid reports that North Korean troops may be involved in hostilities against Ukraine on the side of Russia. Ukrainska Pravda reports.
Congressman Turner wrote to President Biden claiming that North Korean troops' involvement in the war against Ukraine must be a "red line."
In the letter, he notes that the information on North Korean troops in Ukraine is "alarming" and indicates an "extreme escalation of the conflict in Ukraine."
"North Korean troops, either attacking Ukraine from Russian territory or entering into Ukrainian territory, must be a red line for the United States and NATO. Your administration must make that absolutely clear and unequivocal," Turner wrote to Biden.
Mike Turner also called for an immediate classified briefing at the Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence on the possible involvement of North Korean troops in the war in Ukraine.
MILITARY & TECH
Ukraine’s future platoon commanders undergoing urban warfare training in UK
In the UK, instructors from Australia and Finland are conducting intensive training for future platoon commanders of the Ukrainian military to improve their combat skills in urban areas, according to the General Staff of Ukraine’s Armed Forces, Ukrinform reports. The training is part of the multinational Operation INTERFLEX.
“Prospective platoon leaders are given hands-on lectures on moving through urban terrain, entering buildings, dealing with corners and obstacles, as well as reviewing platoon and squad tactics during an attack on an urban structure,” the report reads.
After that, the cadets independently draft a battle order, using intelligence data and the involvement of artillery units, and storm buildings where the conditional enemy is stationed.
“In the classes, everyone takes turns acting as a platoon leader, independently planning operations and issuing combat orders in order to be maximally prepared for combat missions. Other participants alternately assume the roles of unit commanders and stormers, ensuring the coordination of actions during the exercise,” reads the report.
These training sessions help the Ukrainian military to improve the skills necessary for effectively performing of combat missions in the complex conditions of urban warfare, the General Staff notes.
As Ukrinform reported earlier, Canadian instructors as part of Operation UNIFIER training mission are teaching Ukrainian soldiers complex medical skills that will give wounded soldiers more chances to survive after sustaining wounds and injuries on the battlefield.
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