THE RUSSO-UKRAINE WAR BRIEF
For: 2024-11-04
Slava Ukraini! In early 2022 I began a Telegram channel aggregating news from a number of sources daily on the war in Ukraine. In June 2023 I began providing a daily draft for the Ukraine War Brief Podcast collecting news from over 70 sources daily, much of which formed the basis of the script. While the Podcast no longer exists I have continued to make this Brief available both on my own Substack and The People’s Media for those who wish to keep up with events on a daily basis.
All the latest news on the Russo-Ukraine War 6 days per week
ALONG THE CONTACT LINE
GSAFU Morning Report
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in its Operational Information update at 22:00 on Nov 3 stated that day 975 of the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation against Ukraine was about to begin.
During the past two days, 167+160 combat engagements took place. Over the past 48 hours, the enemy carried out 2 missile strikes, 118 air strikes, 1,019 drone strikes and more than 7,500 artillery strikes across the positions of Ukrainian forces.
The Defense Forces of Ukraine continue to withhold the pressure of the occupation troops. The situation in the Pokrovsk and Kurakhivsk directions remains tense - the enemy is focusing the main offensive efforts there. In addition, the occupiers are actively attacking the Lyman direction
At the same time, Ukrainian soldiers continue to inflict losses in manpower and equipment on the occupying troops, exhausting the enemy along the entire front line and continue to disrupt the plans of Russian occupiers to advance deep into the territory of Ukraine.
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Grumpy Here - Yet another grim milestone in this war as it approaches its 4th year as total Russian military casualties surpass 700,000 with nearly half of those - 333,428 having taken place so far in 2024, at the current rate Russia is likely to suffer another 60,000 before the end of the year.
Air Force Daily Report
On the night of Nov 3, 2024 (from 5:30 p.m. on Nov 2), the enemy attacked with a Kh-59/69 guided air missile from the airspace of the Kursk region, 96 strike UAVs of the "Shahed" type and unmanned aerial vehicles of an unknown type from the directions of Bryansk, Kursk, Primorsko-Akhtarsk - Russian Federation.
The air attack was repulsed by anti-aircraft missile troops, aviation, electronic warfare units, mobile fire groups of the Air Force and the Defense Forces of Ukraine.
As of 09:00, the shooting down of the Kh-59/69 guided air missile and 66 enemy UAVs in Kyiv, Sumy, Khmelnytskyi, Zhytomyr, Mykolaiv, Odesa, Cherkasy, Chernihiv, Kirovohrad, Poltava, Dnipropetrovsk and Kharkiv regions was confirmed.
27 enemy drones were lost in location, 1 unmanned aerial vehicle flew to Belarus.
In the air there are two attack UAVs. Combat work continues! Information is being clarified and updated.
On the night of Nov 4, 2024 (from 7:00 p.m. on Nov 3), the enemy launched an Iskander-M ballistic missile attack on Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (launch area — Rostov Oblast), attacked Kharkiv Oblast with guided air bombs and launched 80 Shahed-type attack UAVs over Ukraine and drones of an unknown type from the directions of Bryansk, Kursk, Primorsko-Akhtarsk - Russian Federation.
The air attack was repulsed by anti-aircraft missile forces, aviation, electronic warfare units, mobile fire groups of the Air Force and the Defense Forces of Ukraine.
As of 08:30, the downing of 50 enemy UAVs in the Kyiv, Sumy, Odesa, Kherson, Mykolaiv, Zhytomyr, Cherkasy, Chernihiv and Kirovohrad regions has been confirmed.
27 enemy drones were lost in various regions of Ukraine.
The Russian Border Incursion
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a US based think tank, in its Nov 3 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment reported that Russian forces reportedly recently advanced in the main Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast amid continued fighting on Nov 3. Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces advanced in fields north and northwest of Pogrebki (northwest of Sudzha) and near Novaya Sorochina (immediately south of Pogrebki), and captured a windbreak east of Malaya Loknya (immediately south of Novaya Sorochina), but ISW has not observed visual confirmation of these claims.
A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces also attacked southeast of Korenevo near Lyubimovka and Tolsty Lug. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that Russian forces repelled Ukrainian counterattacks near Malaya Loknya, Novoivanovka (southeast of Korenevo), and Plekhovo (south of Sudzha) on Nov 2 and 3
The Khortytsia operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the northeastern part of Ukraine. )
Kharkiv Sector: Over the last day Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 4 Russian attacks in the area of Vovchansk.
Kupyansk Sector: Russian Forces carried out 16 offensive actions against Ukrainian defensive positions near Synkivka, Holubivka, Stepova Novoselivka, Kolisynivka, Kruhlyakivka, Zahryzove, Vyshneve and Pershotravneve. 6 engagements continue.
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Lyman Sector: Russian Forces carried out 9 offensive actions against Ukrainian defensive positions near Hrekivka, Terny and Dibrova.
Siversk Sector: There has been no significant change in the combat environment in the last 24 hours.
Kramatorsk Sector: There has been no significant change in the combat environment in the last 24 hours.
Toretsk Sector: Russian forces carried out 4 offensive actions with air support near Toretsk and Shcherbynivka. 1 engagement continues.
Russia accumulating manpower and equipment near Chasiv Yar and Toretsk
The Russian military is accumulating forces and equipment near Chasiv Yar and Toretsk, but they have not made any advances, New Voice reported citing Anastasia Bobovnikova, the spokesperson for the Luhansk Operational-Tactical Grouping, on national TV on Nov 4.
"We see that the enemy is accumulating its forces in the zone of responsibility of the Luhansk Operational-Tactical Grouping," Bobovnikova said, adding that recently, the enemy attacked their positions on the Siversk front using equipment, but thanks to the cooperation of Ukrainian units, the aggressor lost about ten tanks and more than ten combat armoured vehicles.
Moreover, we can counterattack and recapture some of the enemy's positions. Thanks to the work of the units, we do not allow them to advance," Bobovnikova stated.
"The enemy is accumulating its resources, so they engage in wishful thinking," said the spokesperson of the Luhansk Operational-Tactical Grouping.
“We will try to counter them as much as possible. So far, they are attacking with small assault groups, but we see that they are transferring live forces to forward positions at night, as well as preparing equipment, reinforcing it with EW, bringing in ammunition and weapons. Thus, they are accumulating their reserves near Chasiv Yar.”
The enemy has an advantage in manpower, added Bobovnikova. Russians are promised "mountains of gold" for signing a contract, but many of those who ended up in captivity in the zone of responsibility of the Luhansk Operational-Tactical Grouping claim that they have not seen these payments at all.
The Tavria operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the central-eastern and southeastern part of Ukraine.)
Pokrovsk Sector : Russian forces carried out 27 offensive actions in the vicinity of Myrolyubivka, Promin, Sukhyi Yar, Lysivka, Novohrodivka and Vyshneve. 4 engagements continue.
Kurakhove Sector: Russian forces carried out 48 offensive actions in the vicinity of Kreminna Balka, Novoselydivka, Vovchenka, Katerynivka and Antonivka. 14 engagements continue.
Vremivka Sector: Russian forces made 11 attempts to break through Ukrainian defences in the vicinity of Shakhtarske
Orikhiv Sector: There has been no significant change in the combat environment in the last 24 hours.
The Odesa operational-strategic group
(Responsible for Kherson, Qırım, (also known as Crimea) and the Black Sea.)
Prydniprovsk Sector: In this sector, over the last day, there has been no significant change in the combat environment. Russian forces made 4 unsuccessful attempts to dislodge Ukrainian units from their positions on the left bank of the Dnipro.
TEMPORARILY OCCUPIED TERRITORIES
Nothing major to report.
THE HOME FRONT
Artillery supplies from partners for Ukraine have increased, Zelenskyy says
Ukraine has begun receiving increasingly more military assistance from international partners, namely in terms of artillery, President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Nov. 4. The Kyiv Independent reports.
"We are recording an increased supply of defence aid packages. The situation with artillery has improved," Zelensky wrote on Telegram after a meeting of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief's Staff.
The statement comes several days after Zelensky complained that Kyiv had received only close to 10% of military assistance approved by U.S. Congress in April.
The U.S. has recently announced several large-scale aid packages for Ukraine, most recently $425 million worth of ammunition, arms, vehicles, and other support unveiled on Nov. 1.
The Pentagon seeks to ship in defence aid before U.S. President Joe Biden leaves office in January. There are fears that if Republican nominee and ex-President Donald Trump defeats his Democratic challenger, Vice President Kamala Harris, in the Nov. 5 election, Washington might scale down its support for Kyiv.
Ukraine finds itself in an increasingly difficult situation on the battlefield, facing shortages not only in materiel but also in manpower as the mobilisation drive stalls.
RUSSIAN WORLD
Russia removes the ability to anonymise social media accounts
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a US based think tank, in its Nov 2 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment reported that Russian federal censor Roskomnadzor implemented its plan to deanonymize Russian social media accounts on Nov 2.
The Russian Ministry of Digital Development announced on Nov 2 a new registration mechanism for social media channels with over 10,000 subscribers on the state services portal.
Channels must register with the Russian government by Jan 1, 2025, and provide “minimal” personal information about the identity of their operators via a special platform or risk restrictions on advertising and their right to be reposted by other channels. Outcry about the deanonymization effort from Russian milbloggers previously prompted Roskomnadzor to slightly alter the program and may have caused a slight delay in its implementation, marking a significant example of how the Russian ultranationalist information space maintains some sway over Kremlin decision making.
Roskomnadzor has already introduced programs to invest nearly 60 billion rubles ($660 million) over the next five years to enhance its internet censorship system, and has outlawed VPNs. These moves come as part of a broader effort by the Russian government to tighten control over internet content, which escalated following the 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
Russia’s largest truck manufacturer declares multi-million in financial losses
In 2023, KamAZ was the largest truck manufacturer in the Russian Federation and held the largest share of the entire market Defense Express reports.
Despite KamAZ’s role as one of the primary truck suppliers for Russia's armed forces, the Russian automotive giant has reported substantial losses this year.
According to the company’s third-quarter 2024 financial report, KamAZ posted a net loss of 3.831 billion rubles (about $39 million) over the first nine months of this year, with a sales loss of 1.041 billion rubles ($10.5 million). This contrasts sharply with the same period in 2023, when the company reported a net profit of 15.819 billion rubles ($160 million).
This decline represents not only a significant financial setback but also a drop in production output. Truck sales fell by 22%, with total production down to 18,460 units. In 2023, in comparison, KamAZ came out as the leader of truck sales in russia with 28,200 units sold, capturing 20% of the market.
Notably, while the report does not differentiate between civilian and military production segments, KamAZ’s losses are striking given its status as Russia's largest freight vehicle manufacturer. In the end, trucks are the blood in the veins of army logistics: for example, a typical russian motorized rifle regiment requires approximately 500 vehicles to support its 2,100 personnel.
Meanwhile, URAL Automotive Plant, another major supplier of military vehicles for Russia's armed forces, has not released financial reports since 2022, making it difficult to assess if KamAZ’s losses are due to an order redistribution within the industry or indicate a broader downturn.
It’s also worth noting that until early 2024, German company Daimler Truck held a 15% ownership stake in KamAZ but cut all ties in 2022. The identity of the buyer of Daimler’s shares remains undisclosed.
INTERNATIONAL NEWS
Sandu wins Moldovan Presidential Election despite widespread Russian election interference
With nearly 99% of the votes counted, President Maia Sandu had 54.7% of the vote, according to Moldova's electoral authority. Former prosecutor general Alexandr Stoianoglo had attracted 45.3% of the vote in the runoff. DW reported.
The final vote count as of Nov 4 was Sandu with 55.33% and Stoianoglo with 44.67%
Pro-European Union incumbent Sandu faced off with former prosecutor general Alexandr Stoianoglo, who was backed by the pro-Russian Socialist Party, in a tight second-round.
When polls closed at 9 p.m. local time (1900 GMT), turnout stood at around 54% of eligible voters.
Moldovan citizens living outside the country voted heavily in favour of Sandu in the runoff.
"Moldova, you are victorious! Today, dear Moldovans, you have given a lesson in democracy, worthy of being written in history books. Today, you have saved Moldova! In our choice for a dignified future, no one lost," Sandu said after claiming victory.
She alleged that the election had faced an "unprecedented attack" by "hostile forces from outside the country."
A former World Bank economist, Sandu is looking to chart a new pro-European course for the country. "Joining the European Union is Moldova's Marshall Plan," she has said referring to the economic recovery proposal to rebuild Europe after World War II.
Massive Russian attempt to affect the vote
Germany has condemned what it called “a massive, coordinated attempt” to prevent Moldovans abroad from voting in the second round of the country’s presidential election. The Guardian reported.
Germany’s foreign minister, Annalena Baerbock, said vote-buying, manipulation and bomb threats against Moldovan polling stations – “even in Germany” – were aimed at “the heart of European democracy”, and showed that the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, “will stop at nothing”.
A German foreign ministry spokesperson said polling stations in Hamburg, Frankfurt, Kaiserslautern and Berlin had been targeted by bomb threats, describing the intimidation as “totally unacceptable”.
The remarks came as Europe’s most powerful leaders congratulated Moldova’s pro-western president, Maia Sandu, after she won a second term, cementing the country’s EU aspirations and dealing a setback to the Kremlin.
The final vote count as of Nov 4 was Sandu with 55.33% and Stoianoglo with 44.67%
Germany's Baerbock In Kyiv As Russia Pounds Ukraine's Infrastructure
German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock met with Ukrainian officials on November 4 in Kyiv where she arrived in a show of support for Ukraine as Russia's unprovoked invasion of Ukraine nears the 1,000-day mark amid daily strikes on the war-wracked country's infrastructure and heavy fighting in the east. Radio Liberty reports.
"Germany, together with many partners around the world, stands firmly by Ukraine's side," Baerbock said upon arrival on her eighth visit since the start of the war.
"We will support the Ukrainians for as long as they need us so that they can follow their path to a just peace," she said after arriving in Kyiv by train.
Baerbock's visit comes as Ukrainians face the prospect of a third winter of war amid energy shortages and the reported arrival of North Korean troops to fight on Russia's side.
"For almost 1,000 days now, Putin’s war has been shaking the everyday life of Ukrainians to the core – yet not their courage and their hope of a life in safety in a free Ukraine," she said.
"We are countering this brutality with our humanity and support -- not only so that the Ukrainian people can survive the winter but also so that their country can continue to exist."
Zelenskyy has criticised Ukraine's Western allies for their muted response to the reported deployment of thousands of North Korean soldiers to the eastern Russian region of Kursk, where Ukrainian troops in August launched a surprise offensive.
However, on Nov 4, Zelenskyy sounded some optimism about weapons and ammunition deliveries from Ukraine's allies after a meeting with General Oleksandr Syrskiy, the commander in chief of Ukraine's forces, and Defense Minister Rustem Umerov.
MILITARY & TECH
Ukraine conducts massive strikes on Russian air defence systems and radars
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a US based think tank, in its Nov 2 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment reported that Ukrainian forces have reportedly struck seven Russian radars and air defence systems since the night of Oct 20 to 21. A Russian Telegram user, who claims to be an employee of an unspecified branch of the Russian special services, claimed on November 2 that Ukrainian forces conducted an ATACMS strike against a Russian S-300/400 air defence system near occupied Mospyne (just southeast of Donetsk City) and that their sources are still clarifying the damage to the system. The Telegram user claimed that Ukrainian forces targeted the air defence systems with six ATACMS missiles and that Russian forces downed three of the missiles. The Telegram user claimed on Oct 31 that Ukrainian forces struck a Russian "Podlet" radar station near occupied Cape Tarkhankut, Crimea with a drone on Oct 23 and that Russian forces have not evacuated the damaged station for repairs yet.
A Ukrainian division posted footage on Oct 31 purportedly showing a successful Ukrainian strike against a Russian Buk air defence system in an unspecified frontline area, and the footage showed secondary detonations consistent with a successful strike against such a system. The Ukrainian General Staff reported on October 25 that Ukrainian forces struck a Russian Buk-M3 air defence system and destroyed the radar system of another Buk-M2 air defence system in occupied Luhansk Oblast on the night of October 24 to 25. Official Ukrainian sources reported that Ukrainian forces also struck a Buk-M2 system in southern Ukraine on Oct 23 and a Buk-M3 air defence system on the night of October 20 to 21 in an unspecified frontline area.
ISW has previously observed indications that Russia has struggled to source the microelectronic components necessary to produce complex weapons and air defence systems due to Western sanctions, and Russia may not be able to produce or repair a sufficient number of air defence systems to maintain the current density of Russia's air defence coverage over occupied Ukraine if Ukraine destroys a significant number of Russian systems.
Further degradation of Russia's air defence umbrella, particularly over occupied Ukraine, may impact how close to the frontline Russian pilots are willing to operate and could limit Russia's ability to effectively use glide bombs against both frontline areas and rear Ukrainian cities.
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