THE RUSSO-UKRAINE WAR BRIEF
For: 2024-10-25
Slava Ukraini! In early 2022 I began a Telegram channel aggregating news from a number of sources daily on the war in Ukraine. In June 2023 I began providing a daily draft for the Ukraine War Brief Podcast collecting news from over 70 sources daily, much of which formed the basis of the script. While the Podcast no longer exists I have continued to make this Brief available both on my own Substack and The People’s Media for those who wish to keep up with events on a daily basis.
All the latest news on the Russo-Ukraine War 6 days per week
ALONG THE CONTACT LINE
GSAFU Morning Report
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in its Operational Information update at 22:00 on Oct 24 stated that day 975 of the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation against Ukraine was about to begin.
During the past day, 157 combat engagements took place. Over the past 24 hours, the enemy carried out 67 air strikes, 580 drone strikes and more than 3,000 artillery strikes across the positions of Ukrainian forces.
At the same time, Ukrainian soldiers continue to inflict losses in manpower and equipment on the occupying troops, exhausting the enemy along the entire front line and continue to disrupt the plans of Russian occupiers to advance deep into the territory of Ukraine.
Air Force Daily Report
On the night of Oc 25, 2024 (from 23:00 on Oct 24), the enemy attacked with 63 strike UAVs of the "Shahed" type and unmanned aerial vehicles of an unknown type from the directions of Orel, Kursk, Primorsko-Akhtarsk - Russian Federation.
The air attack was repulsed by anti-aircraft missile troops, aviation, electronic warfare units and mobile fire groups of the Air Force and the Defense Forces of Ukraine.
As of 10:00 a.m., 36 enemy UAVs have been shot down in Odesa, Kyiv, Mykolaiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Vinnytsia, Kirovohrad, Zhytomyr, Khmelnytskyi, Cherkasy, Lviv, Rivne, and Poltava regions. Most enemy UAVs were shot down in Odesa and Kyiv regions.
In addition, 16 Russian drones were lost in location.
The Russian Border Incursion
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a US based think tank, in its Oct 24 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment reported that a Kremlin-affiliated Russian milblogger claimed on Oct 23 that Ukrainian forces maintain positions along the railway line south of Novy Put (south of Glushkovo) in Glushkovsky Raion west of the main Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast.
Ukrainian forces recently advanced southeast of Korenevo within the main Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast amid continued Russian assaults in the area on Oct 24. Geolocated footage published on Oct 24 indicates that Ukrainian forces recently advanced along the Snagost River north of Darino and likely maintain positions in Darino and Nikolaevo-Darino (both southeast of Korenevo).
A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces advanced in the area between Sheptukovka and Khitrovka (both east of Korenevo) and advanced west of Tolsty Lug (south of Korenevo) in the direction of Zeleny Shlyakhk (southeast of Korenevo). ISW has not observed confirmation of this claim, however.
Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces control the western half of Novoivanovka (southeast of Korenevo) and that Ukrainian forces are operating in the eastern outskirts of the settlement. Russian sources, including the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD), claimed that Ukrainian forces attacked southeast of Korenevo near Darino, Obukhovka, Nizhny Klin, Lyubimovka, Zeleny Shlyakh, and Novoivanovka and south of Sudzha near Plekhovo.
Elements of the Russian 137th Airborne (VDV) Regiment (106th VDV Division) reportedly participated in the Russian seizure of Lyubimovka. Elements of the Russian 83rd Separate VDV Brigade are reportedly operating near Darino, and elements of the 8th Company of an unspecified motorized rifle regiment subordinated to the Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS) are reportedly operating near Olgovka (east of Korenevo).
A Ukrainian brigade operating in the Kursk direction reported on Oct 24 that Ukrainian forces destroyed a Russian Strela-10 air defense system with a first-person view (FPV) drone in Kursk Oblast.
Putin claims, laughably, that Ukrainian forces are trapped in Kursk.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a US based think tank, in its Oct 24 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment reported that Russian President Vladimir Putin attempted to project Russian confidence in the Russian military's ability to repel the Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast at a press conference after the BRICS summit on Oct 24. Putin claimed that Russian forces have surrounded roughly 2,000 Ukrainian soldiers who are now "blocked" in Kursk Oblast.
Putin notably failed to acknowledge that the Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast extends from the Ukrainian-Russian international border and that Ukrainian forces can freely transit the sections of the border under Ukrainian control. Putin also claimed that Ukrainian forces have lost roughly 26,000 personnel during the operation in Kursk Oblast in the past "month and a bit" - likely a gross exaggeration.
The Khortytsia operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the northeastern part of Ukraine. )
Kharkiv Sector: Over the last day Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 8 Russian attacks in the area of Starytsya and Vovchansk.
Kupyansk Sector: Russian Forces carried out 13 offensive actions against Ukrainian defensive positions near Holubivka, Pishchane,Novosynove, Kruhlyakivka, Lozova and Vyshneve. 5 engagements continue.
Lyman Sector: Russian Forces carried out 23 offensive actions against Ukrainian defensive positions near Tverdokhlibove, Druzhelyubivka, Hrekivka, Katerynivka, Terny, Zarichne, Torske and the Serebryanskyy Forest [not shown on map]. 2 engagements continue.
Siversk Sector: There has been no significant change in the combat environment in the last 24 hours. Russian Forces carried out 1 offensive action against Ukrainian defensive positions near Vyimka.
Kramatorsk Sector: Russian forces carried out 2 unsuccessful offensive actions near Chasiv Yar and Predtechyne.
Toretsk Sector: There has been no significant change in the combat environment in the last 24 hours.
The Tavria operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the central-eastern and southeastern part of Ukraine.)
Pokrovsk Sector : Russian forces conducted 43 attacks against Ukrainian defences in the vicinity of Vozdvyzhenka, Novotorestske, Mykolaivka, Krasnyi Yar, Novohrodivka and Marynivka. 7 engagements continue.
Russian forces advance into Selydove
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a US based think tank, in its Oct 25 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment reported that Russian Land Forces (RLF) have almost certainly advanced into the coal mining town of Selydove, around 13km southeast from the major logistics hub of Pokrovsk. The town remains contested, with fighting likely continuing to take place within the town centre. Selydove is the last significant urban area screening the southern flank of Pokrovsk as well as the E50 highway – which connects Selydove to Pokrovsk.
Since the beginning of October 2024, the RLF rate of advance towards Pokrovsk had slowed significantly, with the RLF remaining within approximately 7km of the city. The RLF have recently directed resources towards the southern part of the axis, targeting Selydove and partially encircling the town. Russia likely aims to use the E50 highway as a secondary route of advance to Pokrovsk if Selydove is taken.
Kurakhove Sector: Russian forces conducted 26 attacks against Ukrainian defences in the vicinity of Tsukusyne, Zhelanne Pershe, Novoselydivka, Heorhiivka, Dalnje and Kostyantynivka. 8 engagements continue.
Vremivka Sector: Russian forces made 5 assaults against Ukrainian positions near Novoukrainka and Bohoyavlenka.
Orikhiv Sector: Russian forces made 4 unsuccessful attempts to advance against Ukrainian positions near and Novoandriivka and Novodanlivka.
The Odesa operational-strategic group
(Responsible for Kherson, Qırım, (also known as Crimea) and the Black Sea.)
Prydniprovsk Sector: In this sector, over the last day, Russian forces made 3 unsuccessful attempts to dislodge Ukrainian units from their positions on the left bank of the Dnipro.
TEMPORARILY OCCUPIED TERRITORIES
Nothing major to report.
THE HOME FRONT
Russian attacks against Ukraine kill 6, injure 16 over past day
Russian attacks against Ukraine killed six people and injured 16 others over the past day, regional authorities said on Oct. 25. The Kyiv Independent reports.
Ukrainian forces downed 36 out of 63 Shahed-type drones and other unidentified drones launched by Russia overnight, the Air Force reported. Sixteen more drones were "lost," it added.
The aerial targets were destroyed over 12 oblasts across Ukraine, with around 15 drones downed near Kyiv, according to local authorities.
Five people were killed in the settlements of Oleksiyevo-Druzhkivka, Zelene, and Dachenske in Donetsk Oblast, Governor Vadym Filashkin said. One more person was injured in the region over the past day.
Russian forces attacked the town of Kupiansk in Kharkiv Oblast with an ODAB-1500 air bomb, killing a 73-year-old woman and injuring 10 other people, Governor Oleh Syniehubov said.
The strike partially destroyed a two-story commercial building and damaged 12 stalls, a kindergarten, and several residential buildings.
In Kherson Oblast, Russian forces targeted 26 settlements, including the regional centre of Kherson. Five people were injured, Governor Oleksandr Prokudin reported.
RUSSIAN WORLD
Russian National Guard attacked in Chechnya, 1 killed
Members of the Russian National Guard (Rosgvardiya) came under an attack by unknown assailants in Chechnya, leaving one service member killed and another injured, the guard told the state news agency TASS on Oct. 24. The Kyiv Independent reports.
The incident took place near Grozny, the capital of Russia's predominantly Muslim republic in the North Caucasus ruled by Vladimir Putin's ally, dictator Ramzan Kadyrov.
Chechnya fought two wars of independence against Russia in the 1990s and 2000s, which resulted in Moscow reasserting its rule after a long and bloody conflict.
The injured service member was taken to the hospital. Efforts to find and detain the attackers are underway, the guard told TASS, without saying who was behind the attack.
According to the Russian Telegram channel Baza, the attack took place around midday on Oct. 24 near the village of Petropavlovskaya, which lies some 10 kilometers (6 miles) northeast of Grozny.
Unknown attackers shot at a Ural truck and fled the scene afterward, Baza claimed. The channel shared a picture of the killed serviceman.
The Chechen anti-government group Niyso also reported on the attack on its Telegram channel, sharing the footage.
Pro-Kremlin Chechen fighters ("Kadyrovites") have been fighting on Russia's side since the outbreak of the full-scale invasion. In turn, anti-Russian Chechen volunteers have also joined the war on Ukraine's side, forming several formations like the Dzhokhar Dudayev Battalion.
INTERNATIONAL NEWS
Russia to deploy North Korean troops in combat zones Oct 27-28 - Zelenskyy
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on Friday that Russia plans to deploy North Korean troops to the battlefield starting Oct. 27-28, citing intelligence reports. Reuters reports.
"According to intelligence, the first North Korean soldiers are expected to be deployed by Russia to combat zones as early as October 27-28. This is a clear escalation by Russia," Zelenskyy said on X after receiving reports from his top commander.
Zelenskyy did not say which frontline sector North Korean soldiers are expected to be sent to or give any other details.
Ukrainian military intelligence said on Thursday that the first North Korean units had already been recorded in Russia's Kursk border region, where the Ukrainian military has been operating since staging a major incursion in August.
Around 12,000 North Korean troops, including 500 officers and three generals, were already in Russia, and training was taking place on five military bases, it said.
The United States said that it had seen evidence of North Korean troops in Russia, and South Korean lawmakers said about 3,000 soldiers had been sent to support the Kremlin's war in Ukraine, with more to follow.
Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Thursday that it was Moscow's business how to implement a partnership treaty with Pyongyang which he said included a mutual assistance clause for each side to help the other repel external aggression.
Putin did not deny that North Korean troops were in Russia. "This is our business," he said.
Western allies have said their involvement in the Ukraine conflict would be a major escalation. Zelenskyy has said that is not enough.
"North Korea's actual involvement in combat should not be met with indifference or uncertain commentary, but with tangible pressure on both Moscow and Pyongyang," he added.
Ukrainian prosecutors said on Friday they had launched an investigation into North Korea's support for Russia in the war as a possible crime of aggression.
Russian crew piloted plane shot down in Darfur - accused of gun running
A plane downed in Sudan's North Darfur state had Russian crew members and was being used by the army to resupply the besieged city of al-Fashir, according to the opposing faction and documents it said were found in the wreckage. Reuters reports
The incident offers a glimpse into the murky supply networks behind the more than 18-month war between Sudan's army and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) that has uprooted more than 11 million people, caused widespread hunger and drawn in foreign powers.
Flight tracking data and information from social media accounts that have not been previously reported suggest the transport plane switched months ago from supplying the RSF to the army. A Reuters analysis of the documents, footage and social media indicate at least one of the Russian crew had a past in arms trafficking.
Officials from the RSF shared footage showing its troops standing around the burning wreckage of the plane which they said they had shot down in al-Malha, north of al-Fashir, in the early hours of Monday.
In rare details on foreign involvement near front lines, the RSF also shared pictures purporting to show identity documents of two Russians they said were on board, along with three Sudanese army personnel.
An RSF source later said the aircraft was an Ilyushin transport plane used to carry out air drops of weapons, ammunition and provisions for al-Fashir, where the army and allied former rebel groups have been trying for months to fend off RSF attacks.
Remnants of the plane's engine and stabilizer components match those of a Russian-made Ilyushin IL76 cargo plane, according to an analysis of the videos by the London-based Centre for Information Resilience, a non-profit group, which located the crash site 80 miles north of al-Fashir.
Reuters was able to confirm the location of the videos by the shape of the mountains, terrain layout and vegetation.
Sudan's army did not respond to requests for comment about the plane. Reuters could not independently confirm how the plane had been downed or what route it was flying.
Reuters identified at least two Russians thought to have been on board the plane by matching footage shared by the RSF of their IDs with social media profiles. Reuters used public databases of leaked personal data, facial recognition searches, and access to an official Russian database to confirm the identity of the suspected crew members.
Russia's embassy in Sudan has said it is investigating the incident. The Russian foreign ministry did not immediately respond to a request for comment. The Sudanese military is known to have commonly employed crews from ex-Soviet countries.
Russia provided targeting data for Houthi Attacks on shipping
Russia provided targeting data for Yemen’s Houthi rebels as they attacked Western ships in the Red Sea with missiles and drones earlier this year, helping the Iranian-backed group assault a major artery for global trade and further destabilising the region. Reuters reports.
The Houthis, which began their attacks late last year over the Gaza war, eventually began using Russian satellite data as they expanded their strikes, said a person familiar with the matter and two European defence officials. The data was passed through members of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, who were embedded with the Houthis in Yemen, one of the people said.
The assistance, which hasn’t been previously reported, shows how far Russian President Vladimir Putin is willing to go to undermine the U.S.-led Western economic and political order. Russia, in this case, supported the Iran-backed Houthis, which the U.S. designates as a terrorist group, as they carried out a series of attacks in one of the world’s most heavily travelled shipping routes.
More broadly, Russia has sought to stoke instability from the Middle East to Asia to create problems for the U.S., analysts say. The widening conflict in the Middle East, triggered by last year’s Oct. 7 attack on Israel, has absorbed resources and attention at a time when Washington has sought to focus on the threats from Russia and China.
“For Russia, any flare up anywhere is good news, because it takes the world’s attention further away from Ukraine and the U.S. needs to commit resources—Patriot systems or artillery shells—and with the Middle East in play, it’s clear where the U.S. will choose,” said Alexander Gabuev, director of Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, a think tank based in Berlin.
In the Middle East, the Russian assistance underscores a tectonic shift in its strategy. Putin has strengthened ties with Iran, while turning a cold shoulder to his longstanding relationship with Israel and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Israel has engaged in a growing conflict with Iran and the militias it backs in the region, such as Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen. Putin has criticised the U.S. and Israel over the Gaza conflict. On Thursday, he said the region was on the brink of a full-scale war.
The Houthis began launching their attacks in the Red Sea, where ships travel to and from the Suez Canal, late last year in protest against Israel’s ground invasion of Gaza, and continued them through the first months of this year. In total, the militants have attacked more than 100 ships since November 2023, sinking two and hijacking another.
MILITARY & TECH
UK, Germany Pledge New Weapons For Ukraine's Sea King Helicopters
The announcement of signing the Trinity House defense treaty between Berlin and London, repeatedly mentions Ukraine and the "new offensive capability" Kyiv will receive thanks to this cooperation. Defense Express reports.
Sea King helicopters are versatile carriers that can easily deploy two long-range missiles weighing up to 600 kg each, so there are quite interesting options for their armament
Among the specific examples, the communique lists the commitment to arm the Sea King helicopters, which Germany is transferring to Ukraine, with "modern missile systems." The details are not disclosed but the number of known options is actually limited. Most of them revolve around developments by MDBA — unsurprising considering both Germany and Great Britain have jointly owned shares in this company.
There are a number of potent missile systems deployable from Sea King Helicopters
In summary, the list of possible weapon options for Sea King helicopters from MDBA:
Brimstone
Marte ER
Exocet AM39
Sea Eagle
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