THE RUSSO-UKRAINE WAR BRIEF
For: 2024-11-11
Slava Ukraini! In early 2022 I began a Telegram channel aggregating news from a number of sources daily on the war in Ukraine. In June 2023 I began providing a daily draft for the Ukraine War Brief Podcast collecting news from over 70 sources daily, much of which formed the basis of the script. While the Podcast no longer exists I have continued to make this Brief available both on my own Substack and The People’s Media for those who wish to keep up with events on a daily basis.
All the latest news on the Russo-Ukraine War 6 days per week
ALONG THE CONTACT LINE
GSAFU Morning Report
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in its Operational Information update at 22:00 on Nov 10 stated that day 991 of the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation against Ukraine was about to begin.
During the past two days, 307 combat engagements took place. Over the past 48 hours, the enemy carried out 1 missile strike, 104 air strikes, 1,318 drone strikes and more than 7,532 artillery strikes across the positions of Ukrainian forces.
At the same time, Ukrainian soldiers continue to inflict losses in manpower and equipment on the occupying troops, exhausting the enemy along the entire front line and continue to disrupt the plans of Russian occupiers to advance deep into the territory of Ukraine.
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Russia suffers horrendous casualties during fall offensive
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a US based think tank, in its Nov 9 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment reported that Russian forces reportedly lost almost 200 tanks, over 650 armoured vehicles, and suffered an estimated 80,000 casualties in taking roughly 1,500 square kilometres during a period of intensified Russian offensive operations in September and October 2024. United Kingdom (UK) Defense Secretary John Healey told UK outlet
The Telegraph on Nov 9 that UK defence intelligence estimates that Russian casualties "reached a new high" in Oct 2024 and that Russian forces suffered an average daily casualty rate of 1,345 troops per day or about 41,980 casualties in Oct 2024. The UK Ministry of Defense (MoD), citing data from the Ukrainian General Staff, previously reported that Russian forces suffered a record high average daily casualty rate of 1,271 troops per day or about 38,130 casualties in September 2024. Russian forces have thus suffered an estimated 80,110 casualties over the last two months – roughly 20,000 more casualties than US forces suffered during almost 20 years of operations in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Data compiled by Oryx founder Jakub Janovsky indicates that Russian forces also lost 197 tanks, 661 armoured personnel carriers (APCs), and 65 artillery systems larger than 100mm throughout the frontline in September and October 2024.
Russian forces seized and recaptured a total of 1,517 square kilometres--an area less than a third the size of Delaware--throughout Ukraine and Kursk Oblast over the last two months in exchange for these losses. Russian forces have intensified offensive operations near Kupyansk in Kharkiv Oblast and Selydove, Kurakhove, and Vuhledar in Donetsk Oblast over the last two months and have managed to advance at a marginally faster rate than Russian forces have advanced over the last two years. Russian forces recently seized Vuhledar and Selydove but have yet to make operationally significant advances, and Russian forces have made most of their advances during this time through open fields and small settlements.
Air Force Daily Report
On the night of Nov 10, 2024 (from 20:00 on Nov 9), the enemy attacked with a record number of UAVs!
During the night, radio engineering troops of the Air Force detected and escorted 145 air targets - attack UAVs of the "Shahed" type and unmanned aerial vehicles of an unknown type from the regions of Primorsko-Akhtarsk, Orel, Bryansk - Russian Federation, Cape Chauda - Crimea.
The air attack was repulsed by anti-aircraft missile troops, aviation, electronic warfare units, mobile fire groups of the Air Force and the Defense Forces of Ukraine.
As of 09:30, the downing of 62 enemy UAVs was confirmed in the Odesa, Kyiv, Zhytomyr, Kharkiv, Poltava, Sumy, Vinnytsia, Khmelnytskyi, Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Mykolaiv, Zaporizhia, and Donetsk regions.
67 enemy drones were lost in different regions of Ukraine, another 10 Russian UAVs left the airspace of Ukraine in the direction of Moldova, Belarus and the Russian Federation.
Odesa and other regions suffered as a result of the occupiers' attack. Apartment buildings and private property were damaged, there were no casualties, and the victims are being assisted.
On the night of November 11, 2024 (from 20:00 on November 10), the enemy attacked with two Kh-59/69 guided air missiles from the TOT of the Zaporizhia region, 74 strike UAVs of the "Shahed" type and unmanned aerial vehicles of an unknown type from the Kursk, Primorsko-Akhtarsk regions , Orel, Bryansk - Russian Federation.
The air attack was repulsed by anti-aircraft missile forces, aviation, electronic warfare units, mobile fire groups of the Air Force and the Defense Forces of Ukraine.
As of 09:30, two Kh-59/69 guided air missiles and 39 enemy unmanned aerial vehicles were downed in the Kyiv, Zhytomyr, Poltava, Sumy, Cherkasy, Zaporizhzhia, Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk and Mykolaiv regions.
30 enemy drones were lost in various regions of Ukraine, another 3 Russian UAVs left the airspace of Ukraine in the direction of Belarus and the temporarily occupied territory.
The Russian Border Incursion
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a US based think tank, in its Nov 10 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment reported that Russian and Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the main Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast amid continued fighting on Nov 10. Geolocated footage published on Nov 10 indicates that Ukrainian forces recently advanced north of Novoivanovka (southeast of Korenevo) and that Russian forces recently advanced south of the settlement. Additional geolocated footage published on Nov 10 indicates that Russian forces recently advanced south and east of Pogrebki (north of Sudzha).
The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed on Nov 10 that Ukrainian forces counterattacked southeast of Korenevo near Novoivanovka, Darino, and Zeleny Shlyakh and east of Korenevo near Novaya Sorochina. The spokesperson of a Ukrainian brigade operating in Kursk Oblast stated on November 10 that Russian forces have increased offensive operations with armored personnel carriers, infantry fighting vehicles, and tanks in Kursk Oblast. Elements of the Russian 810th Naval Infantry Brigade (Black Sea Fleet [BSF], Southern Military District [SMD]) are reportedly operating near Pogrebki.
Russia and North Korea amass troops for impending counteroffensive in Kursk
The Russian military has assembled a force of 50,000 soldiers, including North Korean troops, as it prepares to begin an assault aimed at reclaiming territory seized by Ukraine in the Kursk region of Russia, the New York Times reports citing U.S. and Ukrainian officials.
A new U.S. assessment concludes that Russia has massed the force without having to pull soldiers out of Ukraine’s east — its main battlefield priority — allowing Moscow to press on multiple fronts simultaneously.
Russian troops have been clawing back some of the territory that Ukraine captured in Kursk this year. They have been attacking Ukrainian positions with missile strikes and artillery fire, but they have not yet begun a major assault there, U.S. officials said.
Ukrainian officials say they expect such an attack involving the North Korean troops in the coming days.
For now, the North Koreans are training with Russian forces in the far western part of Kursk.
The Russian-North Korean offensive looms as President-elect Donald J. Trump prepares to re-enter office with a stated goal of ending the war quickly. Mr. Trump has said little about how he would settle the conflict, but Vice President-elect JD Vance has outlined a plan that would allow Russia to keep the territory it has seized in Ukraine.
Western and Ukrainian officials say the arrival of North Korean forces is a major escalation after more than two years of war.
North Korea has sent more than 10,000 troops to fight with Russia in Kursk, American officials say. The troops are wearing Russian uniforms and have been equipped by Moscow, but they will probably fight in their own discrete units, U.S. defence officials said.
Ukrainian officials said Moscow had supplied the North Korean forces with machine guns, sniper rifles, antitank missiles and rocket-propelled grenades.
Russia has been training the North Koreans in artillery fire, basic infantry tactics and, critically, trench clearing, American officials said. That training suggests that at least some of the North Korean forces will be involved in frontal assaults on Ukraine’s dug-in defensive positions.
“We fully expect that D.P.R.K. soldiers could be engaged in combat,” Sabrina Singh, the deputy Pentagon press secretary, said on Thursday, using the initials of North Korea’s formal name, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea.
American officials believe that the Ukrainian troops will prove difficult to dislodge, and that the Russian and North Korean forces will probably take heavy losses, similar to what Russia has suffered in eastern Ukraine. U.S. and British military analysts put the current number of Russian troop deaths and injuries at an average of more than 1,200 a day.
The Khortytsia operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the northeastern part of Ukraine. )
Kharkiv Sector: Over the last day Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 5 Russian attacks in the area of Starytsya and Vovchansk. 1 engagement continues.
Kupyansk Sector: Russian Forces carried out 3 offensive actions against Ukrainian defensive positions near Kindrashivka, Zahryzove and Zelenyi Hai.
Lyman Sector: Russian Forces carried out 5 offensive actions against Ukrainian defensive positions near Terny, Torske and Serebryanka.
Siversk Sector: Russian forces carried out 1 offensive action near Verkhnokamyanske.
Kramatorsk Sector: Russian forces carried out 3 unsuccessful offensive actions against Ukrainian defences in the vicinity of Stupochky.
Toretsk Sector: Russian forces carried out 14 offensive actions with air support near Toretsk and Shcherbynivka. 6 engagements continue.
The Tavria operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the central-eastern and southeastern part of Ukraine.)
Pokrovsk Sector : Russian forces carried out 35 offensive actions in the vicinity of Myrolyubivka, Promin, Sukhyi Yar, Lysivka, Petrivka, Hryhorivka and Selydove. 9 engagements continue.
Kurakhove Sector: The main thrust of Russian forces over the last day was in this district 46 offensive actions took place in the vicinity of Novodmytrivka, Voznesenka, Novoselydivka, Sontsivka, Maksymilyanivka, Dalnje,Illinka, Katerynivka and Antonivka. 4 engagements continue.
Vremivka Sector: Russian forces made 13 attempts to break through Ukrainian defences in the vicinity of Makarivka, Kostiantynopolske, Uspenivka and Trudove. 5 engagements continue.
Orikhiv Sector: In this sector, over the last day, Russian forces made 2 attempts to dislodge Ukrainian units from their positions near Novoandriivka and Mala Tokmachka.
The Odesa operational-strategic group
(Responsible for Kherson, Qırım, (also known as Crimea) and the Black Sea.)
Prydniprovsk Sector: In this sector, over the last day, there has been no significant change in the combat environment. Russian forces made 7 unsuccessful attempts to dislodge Ukrainian units from their positions on the left bank of the Dnipro.
TEMPORARILY OCCUPIED TERRITORIES
Nothing major to report.
THE HOME FRONT
Kurakhove Dam blown up: Villages face rising waters while Russian attacks escalate
A dam at a reservoir near the city of Kurakhove in Donetsk Oblast has been destroyed, causing rising water levels in villages along the Vovcha River. New Voice reported on Nov 11, citing Roman Padun, the head of the Kurakhove City Military Administration.
On Nov. 11, analysts from the DeepState project reported that Russia is continuing a large-scale encirclement strategy around Kurakhove. The enemy is advancing from the flanks and increasing pressure from new directions, attempting to cut off Ukrainian defence forces from their logistical routes.
According to DeepState, Russian forces are assaulting Ukrainian positions in Kurakhove from the north, south, and east.
RUSSIAN WORLD
More purges in Russia’s Defence Industry.
The UK Ministry of Defence in their Nov 11 Intelligence Update on Ukraine stated that according to the Russian Investigative Committee, on Oct 18, 3 individuals were remanded in custody for charges relating to the misappropriation of real estate belonging to the Russian Ministry of Defence. The suspects include the former head of the Assets Department of Main Directorate for the Outfitting of Troops, who with the other suspects is accused of misappropriating 15 properties worth over 244 million roubles ($2.5m USD) in the Moscow Region, while administrating the bankruptcy of a Defence Ministry associated construction entity.
Separately former Russian National Guard Deputy Director Sergei Mileiko is facing corruption charges for inflating the prices of uniforms during a procurement by over 400m roubles ($4.2m USD).
Arrests and criminal proceedings against Defence and Defence Industry officials have continued apace since Spring 2024, as Russian investigative authorities almost certainly attempt to achieve a level of control over the massive scale of corruption in the Russian defence sector, for both practical and demonstrative political reasons.
Russia Preparing Mass Government Layoffs.
Russia’s government is planning to resume major layoffs of public sector employees next year after they were put on hold due to the Covid-19 pandemic and full-scale invasion of Ukraine, The Moscow Times reports citing the Kommersant business newspaper.
Authorities began state service optimization reforms in 2019, which at the time saw around 10% of federal government employees lose their jobs amid a digitization rollout in the public sector.
President Vladimir Putin signed a decree last month ordering the territorial branches of federal government agencies to cut staff by 10% no later than July 1, 2025. This latest round of layoffs is expected to free up funding to provide remaining employees with higher salaries.
Around 400,000 people currently work in the territorial divisions of Russia’s federal agencies, which Kommersant said amounts to around 0.5% of the country’s overall workforce. Some agencies may be able to reach the layoff target by cutting unfilled positions, the newspaper wrote.
Those employees earn on average 60,300 rubles ($614) per month, or 45% less than their colleagues in federal agencies, according to Kommersant, citing a government document detailing the reforms. Earnings could increase up to 80,000 rubles per month depending on how many employees are impacted.
The layoffs will not impact employees of Russia-installed administrations in the four partially occupied Ukrainian regions Moscow claims to have annexed shortly after launching the full-scale invasion in February 2022.
INTERNATIONAL NEWS
Kremlin dismisses reports Trump and Putin spoke in recent days as 'pure fiction'
The Kremlin dismissed on Monday reports that U.S. President-elect Donald Trump had spoken to Russian President Vladimir Putin in recent days as "pure fiction." Reuters reports.
A source told Reuters on Sunday that Trump, who has criticised the scale of U.S. military and financial support for Kyiv and said he will end the war quickly, had spoken to Putin in recent days.
The source told Reuters they were familiar with the conversation, first reported by The Washington Post, which cited unidentified sources as saying Trump had told Putin that he should not escalate the Ukraine war.
In an unusual move, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Monday no such call had taken place between Putin and Trump.
"This is completely untrue. This is pure fiction, it's just false information," he told reporters. "There was no conversation."
"This is the most obvious example of the quality of the information that is being published now, sometimes even in fairly reputable publications," he said.
Asked whether Putin had plans for any contacts with Trump, Peskov said: "There are no concrete plans yet."
Trump spoke to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy last Wednesday.
Asked about the purported Trump-Putin call, Steven Cheung, Trump's communications director, said: "We do not comment on private calls between President Trump and other world leaders."
Republican Trump will take office on Jan. 20 after winning the Nov. 5 presidential election. Biden has invited Trump to the Oval Office on Wednesday, the White House said.
U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said on Sunday Biden's top message would be his commitment to ensure a peaceful transfer of power, and he will also talk to Trump about what's happening in Europe, Asia and the Middle East.
MILITARY & TECH
France to send Ukraine new batch of SCALP and Mistral missiles
France is expanding its military support for Ukraine with a fresh delivery of SCALP cruise missiles and Mistral air defence systems, part of Paris’s ongoing commitment to bolster Ukraine’s defence capabilities against Russian aggression, Le Journal du Dimanche reported citing French Defense Minister Sébastien Lecornu.
“We are preparing to supply more Mistral missiles, particularly for combat zone protection. Additionally, in recent days, I authorised the transfer of another ten SCALP missiles to enable Ukraine to conduct deep strikes, as promised to President Zelenskyy,”
The announcement comes as Ukraine grapples with critical manpower and ammunition shortages and intensifying Russian attacks in the east, where Moscow’s forces are making slow but steady advances in Donetsk Oblast despite heavy losses.
The minister confirmed that France will continue its military training program in Grand-Est, where 2,000 Ukrainian soldiers are training with French brigades using French equipment.
SCALP-EG missiles, known as Storm Shadow in British service, can strike targets up to 250 kilometres away, allowing Ukraine to hit strategic assets like command centres and ammunition depots behind enemy lines. However, Western allies restrict Ukraine from using these weapons to strike Russian territory, as they contain US components.
The Mistral is a short-range air defence (SHORAD) missile system that can be used from vehicles, surface ships, and helicopters, as well as in a portable configuration. The "Mistral" missile is transported in a transport and launch container (MPC) together with "friend or foe" interrogator, power source and tripod with its sighting devices.
Lecornu emphasised that France’s support must remain sustainable, noting that military assistance must continue even after the war ends.
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