THE RUSSO-UKRAINE WAR BRIEF
For: 25-02-04
Slava Ukraini! In early 2022 I began a Telegram channel aggregating news from a number of sources daily on the war in Ukraine. In June 2023 I began providing a daily draft for the Ukraine War Brief Podcast collecting news from over 70 sources daily, which formed the basis of the script. While the Podcast no longer exists I have continued to make this Brief available for my followers here on Substack for those who wish to keep up with the news from the war.
All the latest news on the Russo-Ukraine War 6 days per week
ALONG THE CONTACT LINE
GSAFU Morning Report
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in its Operational Information update at 08:00 on feb 4 stated that day 1077 of the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation against Ukraine had begun.
The situation on the line of combat remains tense in some sectors. Ukrainian defenders continue to actively counteract the Russian aggressor, causing them significant losses in personnel, equipment and technology. Exhausting the enemy along the entire front line and continuing to disrupt the plans of Russian occupiers to advance deeper into the territory of Ukraine.
During the past day, 110 combat engagements took place.
Over the past 24 hours, the enemy carried out missile strikes, 91 air strikes, used 2,241 drones and fired approximately 6,000 artillery shells across the positions of Ukrainian forces and civilians.
Air Force Daily Report
37 ENEMY UAVS SHOT DOWN, 28 DRONES FAILED TO REACH THEIR TARGETS (LOCATIONALLY LOST)
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On the night of February 4, 2025 (from 8:00 p.m. on February 3), the enemy attacked with 65 Shahed attack UAVs and simulator drones of various types from the directions: Orel, Kursk, Bryansk, — RF.
The air attack was repelled by aviation, anti-aircraft missile troops, electronic warfare units, and mobile fire groups of the Air Force and Defense Forces of Ukraine.
As of 09:00, it was confirmed that 37 Shahed attack UAVs and drones of other types were shot down in Poltava, Sumy, Kyiv, Chernihiv, and Cherkasy regions.
28 enemy drones-simulators - lost in location (without negative consequences).
Sumy and Cherkasy regions suffered as a result of the enemy attack.
Combat Operations in the Kursk Sector, Russian Federation
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a US based think tank, in its Feb 3 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment reported that Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast on February 3 but did not make any confirmed advances.
The Khortytsia operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the northeastern part of Ukraine. )
Kupyansk Sector: Ukraine's Khortytsia Group of Forces reported that Russian forces in the Kupyansk direction are currently regrouping before resuming offensive operations.
Borova Sector: Russian and Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the Borova direction amid continued Russian offensive operations on Feb 3. Russian forces conducted ground attacks northeast of Borova near Zahryzove, Bohuslavka, and Lozova; east of Borova near Novoyehorivka; and southeast of Borova near Makiivka and Novolyubivka on Feb 2 and 3.
Assessed Ukrainian advances: Geolocated footage published on February 2 and 3 indicates that Ukrainian forces recently advanced in central Zahryzove.
Lyman Sector: Russian forces recently advanced northeast of Lyman amid continued offensive operations in the area on Feb 3. Geolocated footage published on February 2 indicates that Russian forces recently advanced in fields north of Kolodyazi (northeast of Lyman). The Ukrainian General Staff published a map on Feb 3 indicating that Russian forces likely advanced in fields southwest of Dibrova (east of Lyman).
Chasiv Yar Sector: Russian forces recently advanced in the Chasiv Yar direction amid continued offensive operations in the area on Feb 3. Russian forces continued attacking within and near Chasiv Yar and south of Chasiv Yar near Predtechyne on Feb 2 and 3.
Geolocated footage published on February 2 indicates that Russian forces recently advanced along Dniprovska Street in central Chasiv Yar. The Ukrainian General Staff published a map on Feb 3 indicating that Russian forces recently advanced up to southern outskirts of Bila Hora and west of Kurdyumivka (both south of Chasiv Yar).
Toretsk Sector: Russian forces recently advanced in the Toretsk direction amid continued offensive operations in the area on Feb 3. Russian forces continued attacking near Toretsk itself, northeast of Toretsk near Krymske, and west of Toretsk near Shcherbynivka on Feb 2 and 3.
The Tavria operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the central-eastern and southeastern part of Ukraine.)
Pokrovsk Sector : Russian forces recently advanced in the Pokrovsk direction amid continued offensive operations in the area on Feb 3. Russian forces continued attacking east of Pokrovsk near Zelene Pole, Vodyane Druhe, Tarasivka, Myrolyubivka, Malynivka, and Promin; southeast of Pokrovsk near Lysivka; and southwest of Pokrovsk near Kotlyarivka, Yelyzavetivka, Udachne, Uspenivka, Novooleksandrivka, and Sribne on Feb 2 and 3.
Geolocated footage published on Feb 3 indicates that Russian forces recently advanced southeast of Nadiivka (southwest of Pokrovsk).
Ukraine's Khortytsia Group of Forces Spokesperson Major Viktor Trehubov stated on Feb 3 that the tempo of Russian offensive operations in the Pokrovsk direction recently decreased and that Russian forces do not have a large enough materiel or personnel advantage that would allow them to intensify offensive operations to seize Pokrovsk.
Kurakhove Sector: Russian forces recently advanced in the Kurakhove direction amid continued offensive operations in the area on Feb 3. Geolocated footage published on Feb 3 indicates that Russian forces recently advanced in eastern Andriivka.
The Odesa operational-strategic group
(Responsible for Kherson, Qırım, (also known as Crimea) and the Black Sea.)
Dnipro Sector: Russian forces recently advanced on the islands of the Dnipro River Delta amid continued ground attacks in the area on Feb 3. Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks immediately east of Kherson City near Antonivka and Prydniprovske.
Geolocated footage published on Feb 1 indicates that Russian forces recently advanced on the eastern part of Velykyi Potemkin Island (southwest of Kherson City).
TEMPORARILY OCCUPIED TERRITORIES
Yanukovych's son made billions selling coal from occupied Ukrainian territories.
Oleksandr Yanukovych, the son of former Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych, has made billions selling coal from Russian-occupied Ukrainian territories to Turkey, independent investigative outlet Important Stories reported on Feb. 4.
Viktor Yanukovych was Ukraine's pro-Kremlin president from 2010 to 2014 before fleeing to Russia with his family in the wake of the EuroMaidan Revolution. In October 2024, reports emerged that Yanukovych Jr. had been granted Russian citizenship.
The company behind the coal exports, Energoresurs, is registered in Rostov-on-Don, Russia, and has exported nearly half a million tons of coal abroad between 2023 and 2024. According to the investigation, the firm sources coal from suppliers in occupied Donbas and transports it to Turkey by rail and sea.
Journalists linked Energoresurs to Yanukovych Jr. through his coal holdings and mining enterprises. The company also received a loan from the Cypriot firm SL Holdings Limited, allegedly controlled by individuals close to the ex-president's son.
The coal is reportedly sold to an offshore company, Energy Union, registered in the British Virgin Islands. Energoresurs sells the coal at a significantly low price — an average of $60 per ton in 2024 — allowing the company to minimize export duties before reselling it at a higher price on international markets.
Before Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Energoresurs exported coal to Bulgaria, Estonia, the Czech Republic, and Romania. Since then, almost all coal shipments have been redirected to Turkey.
Between 2021 and 2023, the company reportedly generated $350,000 in revenue, though at a "modest transfer price," according to the report.
THE HOME FRONT
Russian missile kills five, wounds 43 in Ukrainian town of Izium
A Russian strike killed five civilians and injured 43 in the town of Izium in Ukraine's northeastern Kharkiv region, partially destroying the city council building, Reuters reported citing local officials on Tuesday.
Russian forces hit the town's central district using a ballistic missile, governor Oleh Syniehubov said on Telegram, citing preliminary information.
Seven people remain hospitalized, including a 15-year-old girl who suffered shrapnel wounds. She is in a condition of medium severity, according to Governor Oleh Syniehubov. Two more children are among the wounded.
"This brutality cannot be tolerated. Maximum pressure must be applied to Russia – through military force, sanctions, and diplomacy – to stop the terror and protect lives," President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on social media.
Rescuers continued to work at the site, he added.
Syniehubov said there were no military facilities in the area. The missile directly hit the administrative building and damaged another one, as well as residential blocks, he added.
Izium was occupied by Russian forces at the start of Moscow's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, now approaching its three-year anniversary, and sustained widespread destruction.
After the town was liberated, Ukrainian officials said they found mass graves and accused Russia of war crimes, which Moscow denies.
Emergency power shutdowns introduced in 8 oblasts due to Russian attacks.
Emergency energy power shutdowns were introduced in eight Ukrainian oblasts due to higher consumption and Russian attacks on the country's energy system, Ukrenergo, the Kyiv Independent reported citing Ukraine's state grid operator on Feb. 4.
The news comes as Ukraine's power grid continues to recover from past Russian missile and drone strikes, with restoration work continuing at power facilities.
The most recent Russian attacks inflicted damage to electricity generation and transmission facilities, leading to power cutoffs, Ukrenergo wrote. Electricity consumption is also growing as temperatures in Ukraine drop below zero.
The emergency shutdowns were introduced in the Kharkiv, Sumy, Donetsk, Poltava, Zaporizhzhia, and Kirovohrad oblasts, as well as partially in the Dnipropetrovsk and Cherkasy oblasts, Ukrenergo said on Telegram.
The grid operator Ukrenergo asked Ukrainians to reduce electricity consumption between 7 a.m. and 10 p.m. to prevent electricity shortages.
Scheduled blackouts were common across Ukraine when Russia launched mass attacks on the country's energy system in the fall and winter of 2022-2023 and in the spring-summer period of 2024. These attacks also led to heat, water, and mobile network disruptions throughout Ukraine.
This winter was expected to be one of the war’s toughest, with blackouts potentially lasting up to 20 hours a day. For now, Ukraine has managed to avoid predicted winter blackouts due to warm weather and Ukraine's improved ability to protect and quickly repair its energy infrastructure despite continued Russian attacks.
RUSSIAN WORLD
Russia records 20,000 claims to declare people dead or missing last year
Russian courts received 20,000 claims in 2024 seeking to declare individuals missing or dead, marking a two-and-a-half increase from previous years, independent media outlet Mediazona reported on Feb. 4.
Before the full-scale war, Russian courts handled approximately 8,000 such cases annually. The surge in filings, which began in mid-2024, represents the first significant rise in missing persons cases since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
The figures hint at mounting Russian losses during the full-scale invasion, which various estimates place between 600,000 and 840,000 killed and wounded. Moscow does not publish its official casualty figures.
According to Mediazona, most of the claims last year were initiated by Russian military unit commanders who sought to remove missing soldiers — presumed dead but lacking official confirmation — from personnel rosters. This process allows units to recruit replacements.
Families do not need to consent to these legal declarations, which often leaves them without financial support or clear information about their relatives' fate, the outlet wrote.
The exact number of missing Russian soldiers remains unknown, as courts routinely withhold applicants' names and avoid publicizing rulings. In 2024, an estimated 12,000 additional cases were recorded beyond the usual peacetime figures.
Russian Scientists Warn of Dangerous Levels of Carcinogen Along Black Sea Coast.
Russian scientists have detected dangerously high levels of a carcinogen in soil samples taken from beaches contaminated by the Black Sea oil spill, with one expert comparing the pollution to the U.S. military’s use of Agent Orange during the Vietnam War. The Moscow Times reports.
Soil samples collected during cleanup efforts in the resort town of Anapa contained benzopyrene levels 22.5 times above the legal limit, environmental scientist Viktor Danilov-Danilyan told the Moskovsky Komsomolets tabloid Sunday.
Benzopyrene, a toxic compound also found in coal tar and tobacco smoke, poses serious health risks. Andrei Peshkov, an environmental scientist with Russian state honors, likened its effects to Agent Orange, the herbicide used by the U.S. military during the Vietnam War.
“[Benzopyrene] has an unfavorable, often lethal, effect on the body,” Peshkov told Russian media on Monday. “This is a bad story for our descendants.”
The oil spill began on Dec. 15 when two Russian tankers were damaged in a storm off the coast of the southern Krasnodar region, releasing thousands of tons of heavy fuel oil into the Black Sea.
Emergency workers and volunteers, some of whom later sought medical attention for possible exposure to toxic fumes, have so far removed 175,000 metric tons of contaminated sand from the affected beaches.
President Vladimir Putin and scientists alike have described it as one of the worst environmental disasters to hit Russia in recent decades.
Russia’s environmental watchdog has threatened to sue those responsible for the spill but has not yet disclosed who it will take to court. The two oil tankers were operated by the company Volgatransneft, while the heavy fuel oil on board the ships belonged to the state oil firm Rosneft.
Environment Minister Alexander Kozlov told Putin that cleanup operations will not be completed until the summer of 2026.
Despite the ongoing environmental crisis, Russian authorities have arranged summer vacations for disabled children at Black Sea resort destinations, including Anapa, this spring and summer.
INTERNATIONAL NEWS
Raiffeisen Bank reports first loss in 9 years after Russian court ruling.
Austria’s Raiffeisen Bank International reported its first quarterly net loss in nine years after allocating $867 million for an adverse court ruling in Russia, Bloomberg reported on Feb. 4.
Raiffeisen is the largest Western bank still operating in Russia. While it initially hesitated to withdraw from the Russian market, the bank announced in July 2024 that it would "drastically" scale down its business in the country.
The Austrian lender reported a net loss of 926 million euros ($955 million) in the fourth quarter of 2024, primarily due to provisions in its Russian subsidiary. "The business reduction in Russia is making good progress," CEO Johann Strobl reportedly said.
Russian court rulings have complicated the bank's withdrawal. In September 2024, a court issued a preliminary decision blocking the transfer of Raiffeisen's shares, which the company said would "inevitably lead to further delays" in its exit.
Russian government restrictions also prevent Raiffeisen from transferring its Russian earnings to its parent company in Austria. As a result, the bank has accumulated 4.4 billion euros ($4.5 billion) in excess capital within Russia, Bloomberg reported.
Raiffeisen's Russian branch earned over $1 billion in the first three quarters of 2023 — about 50% of the group's total profits — and paid 277 million euros ($284 million) in taxes to Russia over the same period.
Bloomberg previously reported on Feb. 3 that Raiffeisen Bank's Russian subsidiary cooperates with companies supplying the Russian military.
MILITARY & TECH
Russian forces continue to suffer significant losses as the rate of advance slows.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a US based think tank, in its Feb 3 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment reported that Russian forces continued to suffer high losses in Jan 2025 despite a slower rate of advance as compared with previous months in late 2024. The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense (MoD) reported on Feb 3 that Russian forces suffered 48,240 casualties – over three Russian motorized rifle divisions worth of personnel – in Jan 2025, making January the second highest month of losses since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in Feb 2022. ISW has observed geolocated evidence to assess that Russian forces gained roughly 498 square kilometers in January in Ukraine and Kursk Oblast, or roughly 16.1 square kilometers per day. The available figures suggest Russian forces suffered roughly 96 casualties per square kilometer of territory seized.
The Ukrainian MoD reported that Russian forces suffered 48,670 casualties in December 2024 – their highest monthly casualty rate since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion – and ISW assessed that Russian forces gained a total of 593 square kilometers in December 2024.
The roughly 100-square-kilometer decrease in seized territory between December 2024 and January 2025, coupled with a similar monthly casualty rate, indicates that Russian forces are taking the same high level of losses despite achieving fewer territorial advances in the near term.
ISW previously observed that Russian advances slowed from November 2024 to December 2024. ISW previously assessed that the Russian military command likely tolerated record levels of personnel casualties from Sep 2024 through Nov 2024 to facilitate larger territorial gains, but it remains unclear if the Russian military command will be willing to sustain such casualties if Russian forces' rate of advance continues to decline as Russian forces are advancing on more heavily defended settlements such as Pokrovsk
Poland and Ukraine Strengthen Defense Cooperation.
The Ukrainian and Polish defense industries are deepening integration processes under the guidance of their governments. This is demonstrated by the results of the Polish delegation's visit to Kyiv. Defense Express reports.
In particular, according to the Polish Defense Ministry, during the visit of the delegation led by Deputy Defense Minister Cezary Tomczyk, two documents were signed on cooperation between Polska Grupa Zbrojeniowa (PGZ, one of the largest associations of defense companies in Poland) and Ukrainian defense companies.
The first agreement is a memorandum between PGZ and the Ukroboronprom State Concern, expanding industrial cooperation, signed under the guidance of the Polish Ministry of Defense and the Ukrainian Ministry of Strategic Industries.
A number of joint Ukrainian-Polish defense projects were launched after 2014. After the full-scale russian invasion, they were significantly expanded and deepened. In particular, in 2023, it was announced that T-64 tanks would be overhauled in cooperation with PGZ at the Bumar-Labędy plant, along with the joint production of ammunition.
It should be noted that PGZ, which includes more than 50 companies, is responsible for the development, modernization, maintenance and production of many types of weapons and military equipment.
We are referring to air defense, including in-house projects such as the Pilica anti-aircraft system and Piorun man-portable air defense system, the production of armored vehicles such as Rosomak armored personnel carrier, artillery such as Rak self-propelled mortar, Grot C16 assault rifles, and much more.
The second agreement was concluded with the National Association of Ukrainian Defense Industries (NAUDI) and the Military Institute of Armament Technology (WITU, Wojskowy Instytut Techniczny Uzbrojenia), a research institution of the Polish Armed Forces. This institution not only analyzes but also independently develops weapons, particularly in the field of ammunition.
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