THE RUSSO-UKRAINE WAR BRIEF
For: 2024-11-12
Slava Ukraini! In early 2022 I began a Telegram channel aggregating news from a number of sources daily on the war in Ukraine. In June 2023 I began providing a daily draft for the Ukraine War Brief Podcast collecting news from over 70 sources daily, much of which formed the basis of the script. While the Podcast no longer exists I have continued to make this Brief available both on my own Substack and The People’s Media for those who wish to keep up with events on a daily basis.
All the latest news on the Russo-Ukraine War 6 days per week
ALONG THE CONTACT LINE
GSAFU Morning Report
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in its Operational Information update at 22:00 on Nov 11 stated that day 992 of the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation against Ukraine was about to begin.
During the past day,185 combat engagements took place. Over the past 24 hours, the enemy carried out 64 air strikes, 793 drone strikes and more than 4,000 artillery strikes across the positions of Ukrainian forces.
At the same time, Ukrainian soldiers continue to inflict losses in manpower and equipment on the occupying troops, exhausting the enemy along the entire front line and continue to disrupt the plans of Russian occupiers to advance deep into the territory of Ukraine.
Air Force Daily Report
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a US based think tank, in its Nov 11 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment reported that Ukrainian forces recently marginally advanced within the main Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast amid continued Ukrainian offensive operations in the area on Nov 11. Geolocated footage published on Nov 8 indicates that Ukrainian forces recently marginally advanced in eastern Novoivanovka (southeast of Korenevo). Russian sources, including the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD), claimed on Nov 11 that Ukrainian forces attacked east of Korenevo near Olgovka and southeast of Korenevo near Novoivanovka, Nikolayevo-Darino, and Darino.
Russian forces recently advanced within the main Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast amid continued Russian offensive operations in the area on Nov 11. Geolocated footage published on Nov 7 and 10 indicates that elements of the Russian 810th Naval Infantry Brigade (Black Sea Fleet [BSF], Southern Military District [SMD]) recently recaptured positions during a roughly reduced company-sized mechanized assault northwest of Pogrebki (north of Sudzha). Additional geolocated footage published on Nov 11 indicates that Russian forces recently advanced in eastern Darino. Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces seized Darino, although ISW has not observed visual evidence of this claim.
Russian forces continued attacking southeast of Korenevo near Leonidove, Nikolayevo-Darino, Darino, Kruglenkoye and Novoivanovka; and north of Sudzha near Malaya Loknya. Ukraine's Pivnich (Northern) Operational Command Spokesperson Colonel Vadym Mysnyk reported on Nov 11 that Russian forces are conducting a high tempo of ground attacks in Kursk Oblast and that Russian forces conduct assaults in intervals of 10 to 15 minutes. Mysnyk stated that Russian forces are conducting air, drone, and multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS) strikes against Sumy, Chernihiv, and Kharkiv oblasts. Mysnyk noted that many Russian munitions fall onto Kursk Oblast, however, and that the intensity of Russian strikes in Kursk Oblast is two to three times higher than in Ukraine. Mysnyk stated that elements of the Russian 810th Naval Infantry Brigade and 155th Naval Infantry Brigade (Pacific Fleet, Eastern Military District [EMD]) are operating in Kursk Oblast. Elements of the Russian 51st Airborne (VDV) Regiment (106th VDV Division) are reportedly operating near Darino.
The Khortytsia operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the northeastern part of Ukraine. )
Kharkiv Sector: Over the last day Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 8 Russian attacks in the area of Vovchansk.
Kupyansk Sector: Russian Forces carried out 3 offensive actions against Ukrainian defensive positions near Kindrashivka, Kolisynivka and Novoplatonivka.
Lyman Sector: Russian Forces carried out 10 offensive actions against Ukrainian defensive positions near Hrekivka, Novomykhailivka, Nevske, Terny and Serebryanka.
Siversk Sector: Russian forces carried out 1 offensive action near Vyimka.
Kramatorsk Sector: Russian forces carried out 3 unsuccessful offensive actions against Ukrainian defences in the vicinity of Chasiv Yar.
Toretsk Sector: Russian forces carried out 4 offensive actions with air support near Toretsk and Shcherbynivka.
The Tavria operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the central-eastern and southeastern part of Ukraine.)
Pokrovsk Sector : Russian forces carried out 36 offensive actions in the vicinity of Myrolyubivka, Promin, Krutyi Yar, Lysivka, Petrivka, Hryhorivka, Pustynka and Ukrainka. 4 engagements continue.
Kurakhove Sector: The main thrust of Russian forces over the last day was in this district 49 offensive actions took place in the vicinity of Zorya, Novodmytrivka, Kreminna Balka, Voznesenka, Novoselydivka, Sontsivka, Illinka, Vovchenka, Maksymilyanivka, Dalnje, Kurakhove, Katerynivka and Antonivka. 16 engagements continue.
Vremivka Sector: Russian forces made 8 attempts to break through Ukrainian defences in the vicinity of Novodarivka, Rivnopil, Makarivka and Trudove. 4 engagements continue.
Orikhiv Sector: In this sector, over the last day, Russian forces made 1 attempt to dislodge Ukrainian units from their positions near Novoandriivka.
The Odesa operational-strategic group
(Responsible for Kherson, Qırım, (also known as Crimea) and the Black Sea.)
Prydniprovsk Sector: In this sector, over the last day, there has been no significant change in the combat environment. Russian forces made 5 unsuccessful attempts to dislodge Ukrainian units from their positions on the left bank of the Dnipro.
TEMPORARILY OCCUPIED TERRITORIES
Nothing major to report.
THE HOME FRONT
Russian missile strike on an apartment building in Kryvyi Rih kills 4, including 3 children.
Three children and a woman were killed when a residential building in Kryvyi Rih was hit by a Russian missile on Nov. 11, local authorities said. The Kyiv Independent reports.
"The bodies of two children were retrieved from under the rubble of the building in Kryvyi Rih," Dnipropetrovsk Oblast Governor Serhiy Lysak said on Nov. 12.
Later in the morning he added: "The body of a third child was found under the rubble of the five-story building. She was not even a year old."
Another 14 people were injured.
The missile hit the building between the first and fifth floor, Lysak reported. The rescue operation continued through the night.
A 10-year-old girl, and an 11-year-old boy are among the injured. At least five people were rescued from the building, according to Ukraine's State Emergence Service.
"Russia seeks only to continue the war, and each of its strikes refutes any statements from Russia about diplomacy," President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on social media.
"Ukraine needs weapons to defend against Russian terror and stronger support from the world to make diplomacy real and strong."
Kryvyi Rih, the hometown of President Zelenskyy, remains a frequent target of Russia's missile attacks.
Ukrainians' views on territorial concessions: Majority oppose, but 32% open to compromise
A majority of Ukrainians (58%) continue to oppose territorial concessions to Russia to achieve peace, New Voice reports citing a recent poll conducted by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology from Sept. 20 to Oct. 3, 2024.
Sociologists note that since May 2023, the proportion of Ukrainians willing to make territorial concessions has been gradually increasing. By the end of 2023, this figure had risen to 19%, in February 2024 to 26%, and in May 2024 to 32%.
"Between May and early October 2024, the situation has not changed significantly — currently, 32% are willing to make territorial concessions," the KIIS stated.
Meanwhile, the proportion of respondents who oppose any territorial concessions has correspondingly decreased to May 2024, reaching 55%. As of early October 2024, under all difficult circumstances, this figure slightly increased — 58% of respondents opposed territorial concessions, the sociologists reported.
KIIS notes a correlation between responses to the question about willingness to make territorial concessions and the question about how Ukrainians perceive Russia's resource strength (formulated as: "Does Russia have an 'unlimited' supply of resources to terrorise Ukraine, or is Russia gradually exhausting them?") and how long the respondents themselves are willing to endure the war.
"Those who believe in Russia's 'unlimited' supply of resources are more willing to make territorial concessions — 48% versus 44% who categorically oppose them. In contrast, among those who believe that Russia is exhausting its resources, only 18% are willing to make territorial concessions, and 72% categorically oppose them," the sociologists noted.
As demonstrated by the KIIS poll conducted from Sept. 29 to Oct. 9, over the past six months, the proportion of Ukrainians willing to agree to territorial concessions in the war with Russia to achieve peace and preserve independence has increased from 10% to 14%.
According to the sociologists, an absolute majority of the surveyed population — 80% (in May 2024 — 84%) — remain convinced that no territorial concessions are acceptable, even if this means the war will last longer and there will be other threats.
RUSSIAN WORLD
Ukrainian Drones Set Belgorod Oil Depot Ablaze.
In the early hours of Tuesday, Nov. 12, a Ukrainian drone attacked an oil depot in the Stary Oskol district of Belgorod region, which borders Ukraine’s northeastern regions, The Kyiv Post reported citing Russian regional governor, Vyacheslav Gladkov.
“As a result of the explosion, one of the tanks caught fire. Ten firefighting units were on site and promptly extinguished the blaze. No injuries were reported,” Gladkov wrote.
Ukrainian officials have not commented on possible involvement in the attack. Kyiv Post reached out to a well-informed source in Ukrainian intelligence for details, but they stated only that “details are being clarified.”
Later, the head of Ukraine’s Center for Countering Disinformation, Andrii Kovalenko, also reported the attack on the oil depot in the Belgorod region and posted a related video on Telegram.
According to The Moscow Times, there are two major oil depots in the Stary Oskol area. One, Oskolnaftopostachannia, is located south of the city and has 24 tanks for storing gasoline and diesel. The other – the Gubkinsky oil depot, belonging to Belgorodnefteprodukt (owned by Rosneft) – is on the west side and contains 13 tanks. This depot was previously targeted by drone attacks in March and August this year.
According to the Russian Defense Ministry’s report, last night its air defence systems shot down 13 Ukrainian drones: nine over the Belgorod region, and two each over the Bryansk and Kursk regions.
INTERNATIONAL NEWS
Starmer to demand Biden hands Ukraine missing $20bn before Trump takes over.
Sir Keir Starmer is to urge Joe Biden to release funds for a $20 billion (£15.5 billion) loan to Ukraine before Donald Trump takes office. The Telegraph reports
The Prime Minister is pressing to hold face-to-face talks with Mr Biden, the outgoing US president, when they both attend the G20 summit in Brazil next week.
Sir Keir is also expected to say Ukraine should finally be given permission to fire long-range Storm Shadow missiles deep into Russia, something Mr Biden has opposed.
Sir Keir and Emmanuel Macron, the French president, discussed getting the US to change its stance on Storm Shadows during talks in Paris on Monday, as revealed by The Telegraph.
The two leaders spent 20 minutes talking one-on-one about Ukraine, with the wider delegation of aides not in the room – a sign of the political sensitivity of the discussions.
A Number 10 spokesman said: “The leaders started by discussing the situation in Ukraine, including how best to put Ukraine in the strongest possible position going into the winter.”
Western allies appear to be working on two fronts – money and weapons – to try to get Mr Biden to go further on support for Ukraine than is currently planned for his last two months in office.
There are concerns in European capitals that Mr Trump, who returns to the White House on January 20, will force Ukraine to permanently give up Russian-held land for a peace deal.
North Korea ratifies mutual defence treaty with Russia.
North Korea has ratified a mutual defence treaty with Russia signed by the two countries' leaders in June, which calls for each side to come to the other's aid in case of an armed attack, Reuters reports citing North Korean state media KCNA on Tuesday.
The report came amid international criticism over increasing military cooperation between the two countries, with North Korea having sent tens of thousands of troops to Russia to support its war against Ukraine.
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un signed a decree to ratify the pact on Monday, KCNA said, adding it takes effect when both sides exchange the ratification instruments.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has also signed the treaty into law, which stipulates that the two countries should "immediately provide military and other assistance using all available means" if either side is in a state of war.
Kim clinched the accord with Putin at a summit in June, touting it as a step to elevate bilateral ties to something akin to an "alliance".
Seoul, Washington and Kyiv have said there are more than 10,000 North Korean soldiers in Russia, and U.S. officials and Ukraine's defence minister said some of them have engaged in combat in Kursk, near the Ukraine border.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said last week that North Korean troops had suffered casualties in combat with his country's forces, and the first battles between them "open a new page in instability in the world."
MILITARY & TECH
The EU has delivered over 980,000 shells to Ukraine out of a pledged one million.
Throughout 2024, the European Union has delivered 980,000 artillery shells to Ukraine out of the one million initially promised, The Kyiv Independent reported citing an announcement by the European Union's chief diplomat, Josep Borrell on Nov 11.
Borrell explained the shortfall, citing unexpected production capacity limits.
Despite delays, he anticipates that total EU-supplied ammunition to Ukraine will exceed 1.5 million shells by the end of the year, thanks to both EU bilateral agreements and a Czech-led initiative.
The Czech initiative, launched with support from countries including Canada, Germany, and the Netherlands, aims to supply 800,000 shells, with Czechia already delivering 50,000 as of mid-2024.
Additionally, Ukraine and Czechia have agreed to start producing 155-mm and other large-calibre ammunition within Ukraine by 2025.
Slovak activists also collected over 4 million euros ($4.3 million) for the initiative after the Slovak government refused to participate.
Czechia unveiled its initiative to purchase artillery shells for Ukraine jointly with partners earlier this year amid shell shortages caused mainly by delays in U.S. assistance.
Prague is also preparing to launch a new initiative to purchase artillery ammunition for Ukraine in 2025, Czech Defense Minister Jana Cernochova said in an interview with the Denik N newspaper on July 24.
Ukrainian Army Unit Receives Domestically Produced Bohdana Self-Propelled Howitzers.
Ukrainian soldiers of the 44th Separate Artillery Brigade have received domestic 2S22 Bohdana self-propelled artillery systems. The servicemen are currently mastering modern Ukrainian weapons, Defense Express reports.
According to the brigade's press service, Ukrainian artillerymen are preparing to perform combat missions to destroy enemy targets on the battlefield. In particular, the published photos show the military training process at the training ground.
"Today, our artillerymen of the 44th separate artillery brigade named after Hetman Danylo Apostol are mastering the latest Bohdana artillery system," the statement reads.
Ukrainian artillerymen are practicing the deployment of self-propelled artillery systems to firing positions, targeting and subsequent destruction.
It is worth noting that, according to an official statement by the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the Ukrainian defence industry has reached the production rate of up to 20 Bohdana self-propelled artillery systems per month.
That’s it for today’s Brief folks if you would like to keep up with events in Ukraine daily please consider subscribing, its free!
Feel free to share this update with your friends. Heroyam Slava!