THE RUSSO-UKRAINE WAR BRIEF
For: 2024-09-13
Slava Ukraini! In early 2022 I began a Telegram channel aggregating news from a number of sources daily on the war in Ukraine. In June 2023 I began providing a daily draft for the Ukraine War Brief Podcast collecting news from over 70 sources daily, much of which formed the basis of the script. While the Podcast no longer exists I have continued to make this Brief available both on my own Substack and The People’s Media for those who wish to keep up with events on a daily basis.
All the latest news on the Russo-Ukraine War 6 days per week
ALONG THE CONTACT LINE
GSAFU Morning Report
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in its Operational Information update at 22:00 on Sep 12 stated that day 932 of the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation against Ukraine was about to begin.
During the past day, 122 combat engagements took place. Over the past 24 hours, the enemy carried out 1 missile strikes, 59 air strikes, 751 drone strikes and 3,391 artillery strikes across the positions of Ukrainian forces.
At the same time, Ukrainian soldiers continue to inflict losses in manpower and equipment on the occupying troops, exhausting the enemy along the entire front line and continue to disrupt the plans of Russian occupiers to advance deep into the territory of Ukraine.
Air Force Daily Report
On the night of September 13, 2024, the enemy attacked with 26 strike UAVs of the "Shahed" type (launch areas: Primorsko-Akhtarsk - Russian Federation, Chauda - Crimea).
As a result of anti-aircraft combat by aviation, anti-aircraft missile forces, units of mobile fire groups and EW of the Defense Forces of Ukraine, 24 enemy attack UAVs were shot down within Mykolaiv, Odesa, Khmelnytskyi and Ivano-Frankivsk regions.
As of 9:00 a.m., one enemy UAV still remains in the airspace, combat work continues!
The Russian Border Incursion
Russian counterattack stalls as Ukraine continues offensive in Kursk
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a US based think tank, in its Sep 12 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment assessed that Russian forces continued counterattacking throughout the Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast on September 12 but made only marginal gains, likely due to continued Ukrainian offensive operations and defensive counterattacks in the area. Geolocated footage published on September 12 indicates that Russian forces made marginal advances west of Vishnevka (southwest of Korenevo) and in northern Krasnooktyabrskoye (southwest of Korenevo).
The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that Russian forces have recaptured 10 settlements south and southwest of Korenevo since starting counterattacks on the night of September 10 to 11, including Apanasovka, Byakhovo, Vishnevka, Viktorovka, Vnezapnoye, Gordeevka, Krasnooktyabrskoye, Obukhovka, Snagost, and 10-y Oktyabr.
All of these settlements are within the existing claimed limit of Russian advances, and ISW has yet to observe visual confirmation that Russian forces have recaptured any of these settlements except parts of Snagost and Krasnooktyabrskoye. Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces continued advancing southeast of Korenevo and northeast of Snagost (southwest of Korenevo), although ISW has not observed visual confirmation of these claims.
Ukrainian forces continued counterattacking in areas where Russian forces have launched counterattacks and launched additional attacks outside of the salient, making gains in Glushkovsky Raion (west of Korenevsky Raion). Geolocated footage published September 12 indicates that Ukrainian infantry have advanced across the border and into southwestern Tetkino (about 40km southwest of the current Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast).
Additional geolocated footage published on September 12 shows Ukrainian armored vehicles and infantry bypassing Russian dragon's teeth anti-tank obstacles on the Russian-Ukrainian border southwest of Novy Put (southwest of Glushkovo) unopposed, indicating that Ukrainian forces have advanced in the area and that Russian forces were not prepared to leverage the obstacles to repel cross-border Ukrainian assaults. Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces continued assaults near Novy Put, Medvezhye (southeast of Glushkovo), Snagost, Olgovka (east of Korenevo), and Fanaseyevka (southeast of Sudzha).
Russian forces have so far advanced in areas of Kursk Oblast that Ukrainian forces were not yet fully controlling nor attempting to control, and Russian forces will likely face more difficulty when counterattacking further into areas of the salient where Ukrainian forces do have control. ISW uses the doctrinal definition of "control" when referring to control of terrain in which "control is a tactical mission task that requires a commander to maintain physical influence over a specified area to prevent its use by an enemy or to create conditions necessary for successful friendly operations."
Russian forces have advanced roughly 58 square kilometers in areas where ISW has observed either maximalist claims or visual evidence of Ukrainian forces operating since starting counterattacks on the night of September 10 to 11. ISW previously was not mapping control of terrain within the Ukrainian salient in Russia, and Russian forces have not advanced in recent days through areas which ISW formally assessed were under Ukrainian control. ISW has been mapping the maximalist extent of claims and unverified reports about Ukrainian advances, however, and ISW's mapping never excluded the possibility that Russian forces were operating in areas within the maximalist extent of claimed Ukrainian advances. Ukrainian forces have not attempted to consolidate positions everywhere in their salient in Kursk Oblast, and it is likely that Ukrainian forces had fewer consolidated positions in forward areas at the edges of the salient where Russian forces have recently advanced. Ukrainian forces most certainly control territory within some areas of the salient in Kursk Oblast, although ISW will continue to refrain from mapping Ukrainian control of terrain in Russia. Russian counterattacks against better prepared and consolidated positions in territory where Ukrainian forces exert control will likely be far less successful than the counterattacks Russian forces launched on September 10 to 11.
The Khortytsia operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the northeastern part of Ukraine. )
Kharkiv Sector: Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 3 Russian attacks near Vovchansk.
Kupyansk Sector: Russian Forces carried out 8 offensive actions against Ukrainian defensive positions near Synkivka, Kolisnykivka, Lozova, Stelmahivka. 1 engagement is ongoing.
Lyman Sector: Russian Forces carried out 6 offensive actions against Ukrainian defensive positions near Druzhelyubivka and Nevske. 1 engagement are ongoing.
Siversk Sector: Ukrainian defenders successfully repelled 5 attack of the enemy in the area of Verkhnokamianske. 2 engagements are ongoing.
Kramatorsk Sector: Russian forces carried out 2 unsuccessful offensive actions near Chasiv Yar and Stupochky. The situation is under the control of Ukrainian military.
Toretsk Sector: Russian forces carried out 5 unsuccessful offensive actions with air support near Toretsk Nelipivka and Nui-York. 2 clashes are ongoing.
The Tavria operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the central-eastern and southeastern part of Ukraine.)
Pokrovsk Sector : The enemy conducted 32 attacks against Ukrainian defences in this area over the last day in the vicinity of Zelene Pole, Novooleksandriivka, Vozdvyzhenko, Novotoretske, Hrodivka, Novohrodivka, Selydove and Mykhaillivka. 4 engagements are ongoing.
Kurakhove Sector: There were 48 combat clashes of different intensity today in this sector. The most active occupiers tried to advance in the settlements of Konstantinivka and Georgievka, where about 75% of all fighting took place. In addition, the enemy attacked in the direction of Ukrainsk, Zhelanne Pershe and Oleksandropil.
Vremivka Sector: Russian forces, supported by aviation, made 5 assaults against Ukrainian positions near Zolota Nyva Vodyane.
Orikhiv Sector: There has been no significant change in the combat environment in the last 24 hours.
The Odesa operational-strategic group
(Responsible for Kherson, Qırım, (also known as Crimea) and the Black Sea.)
Prydniprovsk Sector: In this sector, over the last day, the situation has not changed significantly. Russian forces made 6 unsuccessful attempts to force Ukrainian units from their positions on the left bank of the Dnipro.
TEMPORARILY OCCUPIED TERRITORIES
AFU hit occupiers’ air defense rockets depot near Mariupol. Detonation continues till morning
On the night of Friday, September 13, near Mariupol, an attack was made on the occupiers’ air defense rockets depot. There may be damage to the air defense calculation, the Ukrainian News agency reported citing Petro Andriushchenko, adviser to the mayor of Mariupol.
"A hit of a depot with ammunition and rockets for air defense systems in the village of Hlyboke has been confirmed. The detonation lasted until 5:20 a.m. Preliminarily, the damage to another air defense calculation is possible,” he said.
Currently, according to the mayor's adviser, the invaders are considering the evacuation of the village of Portovske, everything is blocked by the occupiers, the same situation is in Manhush.
"Manhush. The exit in the direction of Mariupol is blocked, the Manhush-Mariupol highway is partially closed. According to observations, rebasing continues in the mode of urgent evacuation after the hit. Details will be later," Andriushchenko added.
THE HOME FRONT
49 Ukrainians return from Russian captivity
A total of 49 Ukrainians were returned from Russian captivity, including soldiers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the National Guard, the National Police, the State Border Guard Service, some of the defenders of Azovstal, as well as civilians, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said. Interfax Ukraine reported.
"Another return of our people, which we always wait for and who we work for. A total of 49 Ukrainians are home. These are soldiers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the National Guard, the National Police, the State Border Guard Service, as well as our civilians. In particular, Leniye Umerova - a girl who was taken hostage by the Russians when she came to take care of her sick father. We also managed to free some of the defenders of Azovstal. Hero of Ukraine, military medic Viktor Ivchuk is also home," Zelenskyy wrote on his Telegram channel on Friday.
Twenty-three women returned to Ukraine from Russian captivity after the 56th prisoner swap since the beginning of the full-scale invasion, the Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War has said on Friday.
The President thanked the team that ensures the release of prisoners of war and hostages from Russian captivity, and also separately noted each Ukrainian unit that replenishes the exchange fund for our state.
"All our soldiers who take the Russian occupier prisoner, all our services that neutralize Russian saboteurs and collaborators, bring the liberation of our people closer. We must bring home all of ours - both soldiers and civilians," the head of state emphasized.
RUSSIAN WORLD
Huge fire at Russian tank plant
A huge fire occurred at the Omsktransmash tank plant, a subsidiary of UralVagonZavod, in the Leninsky district of Omsk on September 12, according to reports from regional authorities. Defence Blog reports.
Initial details about the incident began circulating on social media around 1 p.m. local time. The fire is believed to have started in one of the factory’s buildings, although there have been no reports of casualties or injuries so far.
Omsk Governor Vitaly Khotsenko confirmed the incident, stating, “A fire broke out at the Omsktransmash plant. The roof of one of the workshops caught fire during repair work. Specialists are on-site, and further details are being clarified.”
Omsktransmash is a key player in Russia’s defense industry, producing tanks and heavy flamethrower systems, including the T-80BVM tanks and “Solntsepek” thermobaric weapon systems, which are reportedly used in the war in Ukraine.
The regional Ministry of Emergency Situations (EMERCOM) stated that the fire was first reported to authorities at 12:55 p.m. Rescue teams quickly arrived on the scene and began working to extinguish the blaze. While the fire appeared to be serious, officials at the plant indicated that the incident has not impacted production.
Governor Khotsenko also confirmed that there were no casualties. Firefighters remain on the scene, continuing efforts to fully extinguish the fire.
Omsktransmash has faced international scrutiny, appearing on sanctions lists from both Japan and the United States due to its involvement in the production of military equipment. The plant is known for manufacturing military hardware used by Russian forces in Ukraine, making it a critical part of Russia’s defense infrastructure.
Russian Oil Prices Drop Back Below G-7’s $60 Price Cap
Russia’s flagship Urals crude has dropped back below the $60-a-barrel price cap imposed by the Group of Seven nations and its allies to punish Moscow for its war in Ukraine. Bloomberg reports.
Following a recent slump in global prices, Urals at the Baltic port of Primorsk and Black Sea port of Novorossiysk were valued on Tuesday at $57.44 and $57.79, respectively, according to data from Argus Media.
That marked a second straight day below the threshold, the first back-to-back daily occurrence since January. G-7 authorities use prices from the key data provider to assess the cap.
As part of efforts to curb the Kremlin’s income, the G-7 and its allies have been implementing a sanctions policy that limits access to maritime services if crude prices in Russia are above $60. Several companies and ships have been sanctioned by the US, UK and European Union since the policy came into effect.
Russia’s oil revenues had already fallen to a seven-month low as crude prices slid. Moscow has previously said it plans to make extra crude production cuts to compensate for overproduction as part of its agreement with the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies. Those reductions should come in October and November.
NEWS WORLDWIDE
Russia expels 6 UK diplomats, accusing them of 'espionage and subversive activities'
Russia announced on Sept. 13 that it is expelling six staff members of the British Embassy in Moscow, accusing them of "espionage and subversive activities." The Kyiv Independent reported.
The step comes shortly after U.K. Foreign Secretary David Lammy's visit to Kyiv and amid rumors that the West may soon greenlight strikes with British long-range missiles against Russian soil.
Russia's Foreign Ministry said it had canceled the diplomats' accreditation based on "evidence" of their alleged intelligence activities provided by Russia's Federal Security Service (FSB).
The UK Foreign Office has called Russian allegations of spying against British diplomats "completely baseless". BBC stated that they understand the diplomats involved left Russia many weeks ago.
Moscow called the step a response to "numerous unfriendly steps by London" and said the diplomats' activity "threatened Russia's security." Russian pro-state media have often portrayed the U.K. as one of Russia's key geopolitical adversaries.
The FSB claimed it had uncovered "documentary materials... confirming London's coordination of the escalation of the international military-political situation."
The security service specifically named the British Foreign Office's Eastern Europe and Central Asia Directorate as the "lead unit coordinating the implementation of subversive policies" against Russia.
The FSB threatened further expulsions if more "evidence" of the supposed espionage was found.
The relations between London and Moscow have been marred by Russia's attempted poisoning of former Russian intelligence officer Sergei Skripal and his daughter on British soil in 2018 and by the U.K.'s extensive support for Ukraine.
Biden Administration aims to improve Ukraine's 'strategic position' in war before Biden's term ends
With only four months left in the Biden administration and little hope of Congress approving additional funding for Ukraine no matter who wins the presidency, the White House is debating how best to help Kyiv given its limited toolbox. The Wall Street Journal reported on Sep 12.
That includes potentially lifting some geographic restrictions on Ukraine’s use of certain Western weapons to strike back against Russian cross-border attacks—a possibility raised by Secretary of State Antony Blinken in Kyiv this week.
Biden’s top aides are under no illusions that Ukraine can win the war by Jan. 20, when a new president will occupy the White House, and have tempered expectations for what they think Kyiv can achieve in the next four months. They aren’t pushing Ukraine to conduct peace talks or trying to dictate battlefield plans, U.S. officials said.
The goal, said one senior administration official, is to “improve Ukraine’s strategic position to the greatest extent possible between now and the end of the term.”
The war in Ukraine has come to define the Biden administration’s foreign policy agenda since Russia invaded in February 2022. Biden touts his leadership in strengthening the NATO alliance and bringing together Western countries to support Kyiv.
But he also faces criticism that Western support has consistently been too little, too late.
When Biden began his presidency four years ago, he vowed to end America’s so-called forever wars that were sapping the country of lives and resources.
Now, time is running out on his presidency, and the Ukraine war is still going, with Russia advancing to a key logistics hub for Kyiv’s forces. If Vice President Kamala Harris captures the White House in the November elections, she would face some of the same constraints as Biden in trying to sustain support for Ukraine.
For now, the conflict appears to be open-ended and risks escalation with nuclear-armed Russia. Moscow has shown little inclination to settle the conflict while Biden is president, as it bides its time to see the outcome of U.S. elections.
The Biden administration’s strategy “sounds an awful lot like a recipe for another endless war,” because it is “unable to send enough weapons to make a decisive difference on the battlefield, and they don’t have a clear sense of what the endgame should be,” said Rachel Rizzo, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, a Washington-based think tank.
MILITARY & TECH
Ukrainian pilots finally arrive in Romania for F-16 training
A group of Ukrainian pilots have recently arrived in Romania and begun training on F-16 fighter jets, Defense Minister Rustem Umerov said on Sept. 12.
Ukraine received its first F-16s at the end of July, a year after its allies formed the fighter jet coalition at the NATO summit in Vilnius to support Kyiv with training and aircraft.
Ukrainian pilots arrived in Romania to start training on Dutch aircraft at the Borcea airbase "a few days ago," Digi24 news outlet reported on Sept. 12. They are now reportedly learning details about the F-16s on the ground and should start conducting training flights in October.
"There will also be more F-16s in the Ukrainian skies: a group of our pilots is already undergoing training in Romania," Umerov said.
The Netherlands has pledged to deliver 24 of its fourth-generation U.S.-made jets to Ukraine as Kyiv seeks to bolster its Air Force. Denmark, Norway, and Belgium have also pledged to supply Ukraine with dozens of F-16 jets.
Several countries have also made some of their F-16 jets available for training Ukrainian pilots. Training new pilots has been considered one of the main bottlenecks for expanding Ukraine's F-16 capabilities.
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