THE RUSSO-UKRAINE WAR BRIEF
For: 2024-12-23
I will be taking a break for the Christmas Holidays. The Brief will be published on Monday Dec 23 and will then resume Saturday Dec 28. Any major breaking news in the meantime I will post on BlueSky - You can find me here: BlueSky
Slava Ukraini! In early 2022 I began a Telegram channel aggregating news from a number of sources daily on the war in Ukraine. In June 2023 I began providing a daily draft for the Ukraine War Brief Podcast collecting news from over 70 sources daily, which formed the basis of the script. While the Podcast no longer exists I have continued to make this Brief available for my followers here on Substack for those who wish to keep up with the news from the war.
All the latest news on the Russo-Ukraine War 6 days per week
ALONG THE CONTACT LINE
GSAFU Morning Report
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in its Operational Information update at 22:00 on stated Dec 22 that day 1034 of the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation against Ukraine was about to begin.
During the past two days, 169+207 combat engagements took place. Over the past 48 hours, the enemy carried out 1 missile strike, 35+18 air strikes, 629+593 drone strikes and more than 4,000+3,650 artillery strikes across the positions of Ukrainian forces.
At the same time, Ukrainian soldiers continue to inflict losses in manpower and equipment on the occupying troops, exhausting the enemy along the entire front line and continue to disrupt the plans of Russian occupiers to advance deeper into the territory of Ukraine.
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Air Force Daily Report
52 ENEMY UAVS SHOT DOWN, 44 DRONES FAILED TO REACH THEIR TARGETS (LOCATIONALLY LOST)
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On the night of December 22, 2024 (from 09:00 on December 21), the enemy attacked with 103 Shahed attack UAVs and drones of other types from the directions of Bryansk, Millerovo, Orel, Kursk, Primorsko-Akhtarsk, Berdyansk. The launch of an Iskander-M ballistic missile from Crimea towards the Kherson region was also recorded.
The air attack was repelled by anti-aircraft missile troops, aviation, electronic warfare units, and mobile fire groups of the Air Force and Defense Forces of Ukraine.
As of 10:00, it has been confirmed that 52 Shahed attack UAVs and drones of other types have been shot down in Poltava, Sumy, Kharkiv, Kyiv, Chernihiv, Cherkasy, Kirovohrad, Zhytomyr, Dnipropetrovsk, Kherson, Mykolaiv, and Zaporizhia regions.
Due to the active countermeasures of the Defense Forces, 44 enemy drones-simulators were lost in location (without negative consequences), one UAV flew towards Belarus.
In Kherson, Mykolaiv, Chernihiv, Sumy, Zhytomyr and Kyiv regions, private businesses, apartment buildings and property of citizens were damaged due to the Russian attack, initially without casualties, assistance is being provided to the victims.
47 ENEMY UAVS SHOT, 25 DRONES FAILED TO REACH THEIR TARGETS (LOCATIONALLY LOST)
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From 10:00 on December 22 to 09:00 on December 23, 2024, the enemy attacked with 72 attack UAVs of the "Shahed" type and drones of other types from the directions of Bryansk, Orel - Russia.
The air attack was repelled by anti-aircraft missile troops, electronic warfare units, and mobile fire groups of the Air Force and Defense Forces of Ukraine.
As of 09:00, it has been confirmed that 47 Shahed attack UAVs and drones of other types have been shot down in Poltava, Sumy, Kharkiv, Kyiv, Chernihiv, Cherkasy, Zhytomyr, Khmelnytskyi and Odessa regions.
Due to the active countermeasures of the Defense Forces, 25 enemy drones were lost in location (without negative consequences).
In Khmelnytskyi and Kyiv regions, private businesses and citizens' homes were damaged due to a Russian attack, with no initial casualties, and assistance is being provided to the victims.
The Russian Border Incursion
The GSAFU reported that over the previous day Defense Forces of Ukraine continued its operation in Kursk, where the enemy carried out assaults on Ukrainian positions during the day. The enemy made air strikes and carried out artillery strikes.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a US based think tank, in its Dec 22 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment reported that Russian forces recently advanced in the Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast amid continued fighting in the area on Dec 22. Geolocated footage published on Dec 21 shows that Russian forces recently advanced east of Kruglenkoye (southeast of Korenevo). Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces entered and seized Kruglenkoye and advanced 900 meters into central Kurilovka (south of Sudzha), but ISW has not observed confirmation of these claims.
Russian forces continued assault operations southeast of Korenevo near Novoivanovka and Kruglenkoye, north of Sudzha near Malaya Loknya, Cherkasskoye Porechnoye, and Pogrebki; and northeast of Sudzha near Martynovka.Drone operators of the Russian 34th Motorized Rifle Brigade (49th Combined Arms Army [CAA], Southern Military District [SMD]) are reportedly striking Ukrainian targets near Malaya Loknya, and snipers of the 34th Motorized Rifle Brigade are reportedly operating near Pogrebki.
The commander of a Ukrainian battalion operating in Kursk Oblast stated that Russian forces have begun recently fielding armored vehicles in assaults in Kursk Oblast after exclusively conducting infantry assaults in previous weeks. Elements of the Russian 83rd Airborne (VDV) Brigade and BARS-22 (Russian Combat Army Reserve) detachment are reportedly operating in Kursk Oblast.
The Khortytsia operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the northeastern part of Ukraine. )
Kharkiv Sector: Over the last day in this sector Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 7 Russian assaults in the area of Hoptivka, Vysoka Yaruha, Hlyboke, Starytsya and Buhruvatka.
Kupyansk Sector: Russian Forces carried out 7 offensive actions against Ukrainian defensive positions near Kucherivkam Stepova Novoselivka, Zahryzove, Bohuslavka and Nova Kruhlyakivka. 2 engagements are ongoing.
Lyman Sector: Russian Forces carried out 36 offensive actions against Ukrainian defensive positions near. Zelenyi Hai, Nadiya, Novoserhiivka, Novoiehorivka, Drushelyubivka, Hrekivka, Makiivka, Ivanka, Terny, Torske, Dibrova, Serebryanka and Hyrhorivka. 18 engagements are ongoing.
Siversk Sector: Over the last day Russian forces carried out 12 offensive actions against Ukrainian defences in the vicinity of Bilohorivka, Verkhnokamianske. Ivano-Darivka and Vyimka. 1 engagement is ongoing.
Kramatorsk Sector: Russian Forces carried out 7 offensive actions against Ukrainian defensive positions near Vasiukivka, Chasiv Yar and Stupochky. 3 engagements are ongoing.
Toretsk Sector: Russian Forces carried out 7 offensive actions against Ukrainian defensive positions near Druzhba and Toretsk. 4 engagements are ongoing.
The Tavria operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the central-eastern and southeastern part of Ukraine.)
Pokrovsk Sector : Over the last day, Russian Forces carried out 34 offensive actions against Ukrainian defensive positions mainly in the vicinity of Promin, Sukyhi Yar, Lysivka, Dachenske, Zelene, Novoukrainka, Shevchenko, Novovasylivka. Novoielyzavetivka, Novoolenivka and Ukrainka. 7 engagements are ongoing.
Kurakhove Sector: Russia conducted 26 offensive actions over the last day in the vicinity of Sontsivka, Stari Terny ,Andriivka, Dachne, Kurakhove and Yantarne.
Vremivka Sector: Russian forces made 36 attempts to break through Ukrainian defences in the vicinity of Novosilka, Blahodatne, Velyka Novosilka, Rozdolne, Bahatyr, Rozlyv and Kostyanynopil. 8 engagements are ongoing.
Orikhiv Sector: Russian forces made 1 attempt to break through Ukrainian defences in the vicinity of Novoandrivka.
ISW - Ukraine regains lost positions in Zaporizhzhia
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a US based think tank, in its Dec 22 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment reported that Ukrainian forces recently regained lost positions in western Zaporizhzhia Oblast following reports of localized Ukrainian offensive operations in the area. Geolocated footage published on Dec 22 indicates that Ukrainian forces recently regained lost positions in central Kamyanske (northwest of Robotyne and south of Zaporizhzhia City), and a Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces likely pushed Russian forces from northern Kamyanske on the eastern bank of the Kakhovka Reservoir.
A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces have successfully stopped the Ukrainian advance and cut off the attacking unit from supplies and reinforcements. Russian milbloggers reported localized Ukrainian ground assaults in the Kamyanske area on Dec 20 and 21.
The Odesa operational-strategic group
(Responsible for Kherson, Qırım, (also known as Crimea) and the Black Sea.)
Prydniprovsk Sector: In this sector, over the last day, there has been no significant change in the combat environment. Russian forces made 3 unsuccessful attempts to dislodge Ukrainian units from their positions.
TEMPORARILY OCCUPIED TERRITORIES
Nothing major to report.
THE HOME FRONT
UK Defense Intelligence says Russia Leverages Decoy Drones To Exhaust Ukraine's Air Defence
The UK Ministry of Defence in their Dec 23 Intelligence Update on Ukraine stated November sets a new record of Russian drone launches, marking a consistent increase throughout 2024.
Russia launched approximately 2,300 One Way Attack Uncrewed Aerial Systems (OWA UAS) of varying types into Ukraine in the month of November 2024, once again surpassing the previous month’s total. Monthly OWA UAS numbers have been increasing consistently throughout 2024, with significant increases – greater than 200 on the previous month – since July 2024.
It is likely that through September-November 2024, as many as 50-60% of the total launches were ‘decoy’ OWA UAS. The Russian forces have a variety of decoys available. Smaller and less expensive than SHAHED-class OWA UAS due to the construction materials, their purpose is to complicate the Ukrainian defensive effort through saturating or confusing the radar picture, forcing more work on the Ukrainian Air Defence teams in the hope of causing fatigue over time. Some of the decoy systems still likely carry a small payload (up to 5kg) of explosive, ultimately making them no less dangerous should they reach a target.
The rate of increase from October to November dropped in comparison to previous months. December 2024 launch figures show approximately 850 launches so far. However it is likely that weather has impacted operations in December, evidenced through some nights with significantly larger waves following a period of low or no activity. With no impact on launch sites or production, it remains likely that Russia can sustain numbers at least in excess of 1,500 per month. Russian OWA UASs maintain coverage of targets across the entirety of Ukraine, enabling russia to maintain pressure while allowing long range aviation missile stocks to replenish.
More than two-thirds of Ukrainians favor idea of restoring nuclear arms arsenal, poll shows
About 73% of Ukrainians supported the idea of Ukraine restoring its nuclear weapons, while 20% spoke against it, The Kyiv Independent reported citing a poll published by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology on Dec. 23.
The poll was conducted around the 30th anniversary of the signing of the Budapest Memorandum, under which Ukraine gave up its Soviet-era nuclear arsenal in exchange for international security guarantees.
Around half of the respondents said they would support the development of nuclear weapons even at the price of losing Western aid and coming under sanctions.
Despite discussions in the media, Kyiv affirmed its adherence to the nuclear non-proliferation policy and said it has no plans of building nuclear weapons, calling for NATO membership as the only viable security guarantee.
The pollsters noted that in 1994 only one-third of Ukrainians supported the idea of their state retaining a nuclear arsenal.
"In the minds of Ukrainians, nuclear weapons are one of the options 'on the table,'" said Anton Hrushetskyi, the institute's executive director.
"We hope that our Western allies will demonstrate the necessary will and Ukraine will eventually receive effective security guarantees, without the need for Ukraine to consider other difficult solutions for itself, how to protect itself from Russia."
The survey was carried out between Dec. 2 and 17 with 2,000 respondents via phone living in Ukraine-controlled territories.
RUSSIAN WORLD
Putin states he should have attacked Ukraine earlier.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a US based think tank, in its Dec 22 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment reported that Russian President Vladimir Putin repeated his latest assertion that he should have violated the ceasefire he had imposed on Ukraine in 2014 and 2015 by launching a full-scale invasion even earlier than Feb 2022. Putin reiterated during an interview with Kremlin journalist Pavel Zarubin on Dec 22 that Russia should have started its full-scale invasion of Ukraine earlier than Feb 2022 but added that it is impossible to say exactly when that should have been.
Putin blamed Ukraine and the West for "misleading" Russia and not implementing the Minsk II Accords, which Putin claimed gave the West time to prepare Ukraine for future "military actions" against Russia. Putin claimed that Russia should have "prepared for this" and "chosen the right moment" to begin its full-scale invasion of Ukraine and not "waited for the moment when it was no longer possible to do nothing." Putin failed to mention that Ukraine worked to strengthen its military as a defensive response to Russia's 2014 annexation of Ukrainian territory and the launch of a war in the country's east. Putin made similar remarks during his Dec 19 Direct Line televised press conference wherein he claimed that he would have made the decision to launch his full-scale invasion earlier if he could do it over again.
Putin also claimed on December 19 that Ukraine did not abide by the Minsk II Accords and that Russia "spontaneously" invaded Ukraine in 2022. The Minsk II Accords were notably extremely favorable to Russia, placing no obligations on Moscow – which was party to the negotiations as an alleged neutral mediator. The Accords established a "ceasefire" that Russian proxies continually violated with Russian support.
North Korean Soldiers Suffer 1,100 Casualties in Ukraine War, South Korean Military Says
More than 1,000 North Korean soldiers have been killed or wounded fighting alongside Russian troops in the Ukraine war, the Moscow Times reported citing South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff on Monday.
The new figure follows a report by Seoul's spy agency to lawmakers last week, which said at least 100 North Korean soldiers had been killed since entering combat in December.
"Through various sources of information and intelligence, we assess that North Korean troops who have recently engaged in combat with Ukrainian forces have suffered around 1,100 casualties," the South Korean military said in a statement.
"We are particularly interested in the possibility of additional deployments" of North Korean soldiers to aid Russia's war effort, it added. Pyongyang is reportedly "preparing for the rotation or additional deployment of soldiers."
According to the South Korean military, intelligence suggests that Pyongyang is "producing and providing self-destructible drones" to Russia to assist Moscow in its fight against Ukraine. The North has also supplied "240mm rocket launchers and 170mm self-propelled artillery," South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff said.
Seoul's military noted that North Korea was aiming to modernize its conventional warfare capabilities based on combat experience in the Russia-Ukraine war.
"This could lead to an increase in the North's military threat toward us," it said.
The latest findings align with a report by the National Intelligence Service, which informed lawmakers that "Russia might offer reciprocal benefits" for North Korea's military contributions, including "modernizing North Korea's conventional weaponry."
Pyongyang has sent thousands of troops to reinforce the Russian military, according to Western governments, including to the Kursk border region where Ukrainian forces seized territory earlier this year.
INTERNATIONAL NEWS
Zelenskyy calls Slovak's Fico dependence on Russia 'big security issue' for Europe.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy on Monday criticised what he said was Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico's lack of desire to end his country's dependency on Russian natural resources as a "big security issue" for Europe and Slovakia. Reuters reports.
Zelenskyy made the comments after Fico met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow on Sunday. Fico said the meeting was in response to talks with Zelenskiy, who he accused of opposing any gas transit through Ukraine to his country.
"His key goal is to deal with Russia, and this is what benefits him. This is indeed a big security issue - both for Slovakia and the entire Europe," Zelenskyy said on X.
"Why is this leader so dependent on Moscow? What is being paid to him, and what does he pay with?" he added.
Ukraine has repeatedly said it would not extend a transit deal for gas flows from Russia to Europe, which expires on Jan. 1. Payments for the gas have helped Russia to wage its almost three-year war in Ukraine, Kyiv says.
The flow through Ukraine accounts for around half of Russia's total pipeline gas exports to Europe. Slovakia, Italy, Austria and the Czech Republic will be the most affected if it ends.
Slovakia, which has a long-term contract with Russia's Gazprom (GAZP.MM), opens new tab, has been trying to keep receiving gas through Ukraine, saying buying elsewhere would cost it 220 million euros ($229 million) more in transit expenses.
Zelenskyy said that Moscow was providing significant discounts for Fico but added that Slovakia was paying for them by its sovereignty or via "murky schemes". He gave no details.
"This should be a matter of concern for Slovakia's law enforcement and special services," he added.
Slovakia's government office could not be immediately reached for comment and did not immediately reply to emailed questions.
Kremlin Calls European Gas Shipments ‘Complicated’ After Slovak PM’s Visit to Moscow
The Kremlin called European gas shipments “very complicated” and requiring “increased attention” on Monday, a day after Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico held a surprise meeting with President Vladimir Putin in Moscow to discuss energy and the war in Ukraine. The Moscow Times reports.
Fico said his surprise visit to Moscow Sunday was in response to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky telling EU leaders that Kyiv remains opposed to Russian gas transiting through its territory. The Slovak prime minister is only the third Western leader to have met with Putin following the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Ukraine has said it will not renew its gas transit agreement with Russia when it expires in January 2025. Fico warned that sourcing gas from alternative routes would cost Slovakia an additional 220 million euros ($228.7 million) in transit fees.
When asked whether Russia can supply gas to Slovakia after the end of transit through Ukraine, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters that the situation was “very complicated” and “requires increased attention.”
“You heard the statement from the Ukrainian side, and you know the position of those European countries that continue to buy Russian gas and that consider this necessary for the normal operation of their economies,” Peskov was quoted as saying by the state-run news agency TASS.
He declined to provide details of Fico’s meeting with Putin, saying only that the talks touched on bilateral relations, the war in Ukraine and gas shipments.
Turkey and Hungary, both heavily reliant on Russian gas, said last week that they received waivers from U.S. sanctions on Gazprombank to allow continued energy payments. However, Slovakia’s state-owned gas buyer SPP has not received any notification of a similar exemption, according to Reuters.
Cargo vessel sent to transport Russian military equipment from Syria breaks down in open sea, Ukraine's intel claims.
The cargo vessel Sparta sent to Syria to bring out Russian military equipment broke down in the open sea and now drifts near the shore of Portugal, The Kyiv Independent reported citing Ukraine’s military intelligence (HUR) in a post on Dec. 23.
Concurrently, marine traffic monitors show a Vladivostok-bound cargo ship, Ursa Major, previously registered as Sparta III and visually matching the picture published by HUR, moving at a very low speed of little over 1 knot in the open sea between Spain and Algeria.
"The cargo ship Sparta, which Russia sent to transport its weapons and equipment from Syria, broke down during movement. A fuel pipe of the main engine failed," Ukraine's military intelligence claimed.
"The Russian crew is trying to fix the problem and (the ship) is drifting in the open sea near Portugal."
Marine traffic monitors show the Ursa Major sailing under the Russian flag and previously making port calls in St. Petersburg.
Russia, the main backer of the recently ousted Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad, began evacuating its military stationed in its bases in Syria. According to HUR, Russian military assets in Syria are now limited to two bases: the airbase in Khmeimim and the naval base in Tartus.
In an earlier statement, the agency claimed that losing the Tartus and Khmeimim bases would significantly damage Russia's presence in the Middle East and solidify its defeat in the region.
According to the agency, the victorious rebel leadership is negotiating with the Kremlin to close their remaining bases in the country no later than February 2025.
MILITARY & TECH
Germany provides Ukraine with 15 Leopard 1 tanks, 2 IRIS-T systems, 2 Patriot launchers
Berlin supplied Ukraine with 15 Leopard 1A5 tanks, one short-range and one medium-range IRIS-T air defense system with missiles, two Patriot air defense launchers, and other aid in its latest delivery, the German government said on Dec. 23. The Kyiv Independent reports.
With these deliveries, Germany has delivered on its promise to supply Ukraine with two additional IRIS-T systems before the end of the year as the country braces for intensified Russian aerial strikes during winter.
Germany has also handed over a self-propelled Panzerhaubitze 2000 howitzer, two Gepard anti-aircraft guns, 30 Mine-Resistant Ambush Protected Vehicles (MRAP), seven Caracal air assault vehicles, and 12 Kinetic Defense Vehicles.
The latest assistance also includes dozens of reconnaissance drones, including 30 Vector drones, 24 RQ-35 Heidrun drones, and 14 Hornet XR drones.
Ukraine further received 52,000 rounds of 155 mm ammunition, shells for Leopard tanks, radars, small arms, and other weapons, vehicles, and equipment.
Initially criticized for its sluggish delivery of military aid to Ukraine following the beginning of the full-scale invasion, Berlin has become the second-largest provider of military equipment after the U.S.
That’s it for today’s Brief folks. To each and every one of you who celebrates I wish a Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays. The brief will return on Dec. 28. In the meantime I want to thank everyone of you for your continued interest in Ukraine resistance against naked Russian aggression. Slava Ukraini!
Feel free to share this update with your friends. Heroyam Slava!