THE RUSSO-UKRAINE WAR BRIEF
For: 25-01-28
Slava Ukraini! In early 2022 I began a Telegram channel aggregating news from a number of sources daily on the war in Ukraine. In June 2023 I began providing a daily draft for the Ukraine War Brief Podcast collecting news from over 70 sources daily, which formed the basis of the script. While the Podcast no longer exists I have continued to make this Brief available for my followers here on Substack for those who wish to keep up with the news from the war.
All the latest news on the Russo-Ukraine War 6 days per week
ALONG THE CONTACT LINE
GSAFU Morning Report
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in its Operational Information update at 08:00 on Jan 29 stated that day 1071 of the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation against Ukraine had begun.
The situation on the line of combat remains tense in some sectors. Ukrainian defenders continue to actively counteract the Russian aggressor, causing them losses in personnel equipment and technology. Exhausting the enemy along the entire front line and continuing to disrupt the plans of Russian occupiers to advance deeper into the territory of Ukraine.
During the past day,193 combat engagements took place.
Over the past 24 hours, the enemy carried out 2 missile strikes, 33 air strikes, used 2,424 drones and fired approximately 5,000 artillery shells across the positions of Ukrainian forces and civilians.
Air Force Daily Report
29 ENEMY UAVS SHOT DOWN, 14 DRONES FAILED TO REACH THEIR TARGETS (LOCATIONALLY LOST)
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On the night of January 29, 2025 (from 19:30 on January 28), the enemy attacked with 57 Shahed attack UAVs and simulator drones of various types from the directions: Kursk, Millerovo, Primorsko-Akhtarsk - Russia, Chauda - Crimea, as well as with an Iskander-M ballistic missile from Crimea.
The air attack was repelled by anti-aircraft missile troops, electronic warfare units, and mobile fire groups of the Air Force and Defense Forces of Ukraine.
According to preliminary data, as of 09:30, the shooting down of 29 Shahed attack UAVs and drones of other types in Kharkiv, Poltava, Sumy, Kyiv, Chernihiv, Kirovohrad, Khmelnytskyi, Dnipropetrovsk and Odessa regions was confirmed.
14 enemy drone simulators were lost in location (without negative consequences).
As a result of the enemy attack, the Mykolaiv, Odesa, Kharkiv, Kyiv, and Sumy regions suffered.
Combat Operations in the Kursk Sector, Russian Federation
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a US based think tank, in its Jan 28 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment reported that Russian forces continued offensive operations within the Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast on Jan 28 but did not make any confirmed advances. A Ukrainian brigade operating in Kursk Oblast posted footage on Jan 28 showing Ukrainian drones repelling a reinforced platoon-sized Russian mechanized assault in an unspecified area of Kursk Oblast. The Russian MoD claimed that elements of the Russian 83rd Airborne (VDV) Brigade advanced along the Snagost River and participated in the seizure of Nikolayevo-Darino (west of Sudzha). Russian milbloggers also claimed that Russian forces advanced north of Guyevo (south of Sudzha) and near Sverdlikovo (west of Sudzha). ISW has not observed confirmation of these claims, however.
The North Korean force grouping in Kursk Oblast reportedly continues to suffer significant manpower losses and may be temporarily withdrawing from combat operations due to these losses. Ukrainian Center for Countering Disinformation Head Lieutenant Andriy Kovalenko stated on January 28 that North Korean forces have not learned to counter Ukrainian drone and artillery strikes and have suffered significant losses as a result.
Kovalenko stated that Russian commanders and North Korean officers are working to remedy these "mistakes." A Ukrainian special operations commander told Sky News on January 27 that North Korean troops appear to have temporarily withdrawn from the frontline in Kursk Oblast after suffering significant losses and may be tending to wounded servicemembers or waiting for additional reinforcements.
Ukrainian servicemembers reiterated that North Korean and Russian forces have poor communication due to the language barrier and that North Korean forces have higher quality small arms and uniforms than Russian forces but often lack access to armored vehicles and must attack and transport supplies on foot.
The Khortytsia operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the northeastern part of Ukraine. )
Kharkiv Sector: The commander of a Ukrainian brigade operating in the Vovchansk direction stated on January 27 that Russian forces assault the Vovchansk Aggregate Plant daily in groups of three to 10 personnel, including with male and female convict recruits.
Chasiv Yar Sector: Ukraine's Khortytsia Group of Forces reported that Russian forces recently attacked with armored vehicle support near Bila Hora (south of Chasiv Yar) and that Ukrainian drones destroyed and damaged Russian two tanks and three armored vehicles during the attack.
Russian forces continued assaults near Chasiv Yar itself and south of Chasiv Yar near Stupochky, Predtechyne, and Bila Hora on January 27 and 28, but did not make any confirmed advances.
Toretsk Sector: Ukrainian forces recently advanced in northern Toretsk amid continued Russian offensive operations in the Toretsk direction on Jan 28. Geolocated footage published on Jan 28 indicates that Ukrainian forces recently advanced along Darhomyzhskoho Street in northern Toretsk.
The Tavria operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the central-eastern and southeastern part of Ukraine.)
Pokrovsk Sector : Ukrainian and Russian forces recently advanced in the Pokrovsk direction amid continued Russian offensive operations in the area on Jan 28. Geolocated footage published on Jan 27 and 28 indicates that Ukrainian forces recently advanced in southeastern Kotlyne (west of Pokrovsk) and south of Zvirove (southwest of Pokrovsk). Additional geolocated footage published on Jan 27 indicates that Russian forces recently advanced along the Donetska Railway on the southeastern outskirts of Udachne (west of Kotlyne).
Kurakhove Sector:Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Kurakhove direction on Jan 28. The Ukrainian General Staff published a map on Jan 28 indicating that Russian forces seized Slovyanka (northwest of Kurakhove) and advanced in the fields west of the Slovyanka and south of Dachne (west of Kurakhove), although it is unclear when Russian forces made these gains.
Velyka Novosilka Sector: Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Velyka Novosilka direction on January 28 and recently advanced. The Ukrainian General Staff published a map on January 28 indicating that Russian forces advanced northeast of Rozdolne (northeast of Velyka Novosilka), although it is unclear when Russian forces made these gains.
Russian forces continued assaults near Velyka Novosilka itself, northeast of Velyka Novosilka near Rozdolne, and west of Velyka Novosilka near Novosilka on January 27 and 28.
The Odesa operational-strategic group
(Responsible for Kherson, Qırım, (also known as Crimea) and the Black Sea.)
There have been no major changes to the combat environment since our last report.
TEMPORARILY OCCUPIED TERRITORIES
Nothing major to report.
THE HOME FRONT
Ukraine Anti-Corruption Agency Launches Probe Into Defense Chief Umerov.
Ukrainian authorities said a criminal probe has been launched into Defense Minister Rustem Umerov for his failure to comply with an order to extend the contract of the chief of the Defense Procurement Agency (AOZ), in what appears to be a burgeoning dispute over arms procurement procedures. Radio Liberty reports.
Ukraine’s National Anti-Corruption Bureau (NABU) on January 28 told RFE/RL it had launched the probe into the possible abuse of power or official position by Umerov due to his refusal to renew the contract of AOZ head Maryna Bezrukova and his dismissal of two members of its Supervisory Board.
NABU said the Umerov probe was initiated following a complaint filed by the Anti-Corruption Action Center (AntAC), a nongovernmental organization.
The news of the Umerov probe came hours after Ukraine's cabinet officially fired Deputy Defense Minister Dmytro Klimenkov as part of a shakeup of the Defense Ministry's procurement operations.
The moves highlight what is seen as a pressing need for management reform in a sector critical to Ukraine's defense as it fights to repel Russia's full-scale invasion launched nearly three years ago.
NABU said in a statement that the abuse of power or official position, if proven, is punishable by imprisonment for a term of three to six years, along with fines and other sanctions. It also stated that a suspect is considered innocent until proven guilty in a court of law.
RUSSIAN WORLD
Ukraine mounts another large drone attack, hits Russian refinery
Units of the Defence Intelligence of the Ministry of Defence of Ukraine, in cooperation with other components of the Defense Forces, on the night of January 29, 2025, struck the Nizhny Novgorod Oil Refinery (Kstovo, Nizhny Novgorod Region of the russian federation), the GSAFU reported.
This refinery is involved in providing support to the Russian occupation army.
After the UAV strike, a powerful fire was recorded on the territory of the facility. The results and extent of the damage are being clarified.
Combat work on strategic facilities involved in providing support for the Russian armed aggression against Ukraine will continue.
Facility was personally owned by Putin.
Defense Express later reported that the plant that was struck was the Sibur-Kstovo refinery, personally belonging to Vladimir Putin. This facility provides materials for the Sverdlov Plant which produces explosives for the Russian military.
Russian army recruitment centres in Moscow see five-fold drop in applicants,
The number of Russians signing contracts at Moscow recruitment centres to fight in the war against Ukraine has fallen five-fold since its peak in late summer of last year, the Kyiv Independent reports citing Russian outlet Verstka on Jan. 29.
The daily number of volunteers signing-up reached a high following Ukraine’s Kursk offensive and the introduction of a one-time payment of 1.9 million rubles ($19,200) shortly before that.
Since then, daily applicants number around 40, a fivefold decrease, Verstka reported, citing a source in the Moscow mayor's office.
"In August, we could barely cope. People came en masse, 200-250 people a day," the source said, adding: "Both money and the entry of the Ukrainian Armed Forces into the Kursk region played a role. Now interest has fallen to minimal levels."
Verstka also reports that the composition of applicants has changed, and half of those signing up currently are foreigners of African, Asian and Chinese origin looking to make extra money, or Russians under investigation in criminal cases.
Russia is currently suffering around 1500-1750 casualties daily on the battlefield, including dead, wounded and captured, as it continues to make grinding advances in eastern Ukraine.
Russia quickly advanced in Ukraine's Donetsk Oblast in late 2024, making operationally significant gains near Toretsk, Chasiv Yar, and Kupiansk, as well as on its own soil in Kursk Oblast.
However, a major breakthrough seems unlikely by Russia given its stretched resources, NATO's Supreme Allied Commander said earlier this month.
INTERNATIONAL NEWS
Putin again rules out peace talks with “illegitimate” Zelenskyy
Russian President Vladimir Putin has again ruled out direct peace talks with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, whom he called "illegitimate," prompting the Ukrainian leader to accuse Putin of being "afraid" of negotiating a settlement to the almost 3-year-old war. Radio Free Europe reports.
"You can negotiate with anyone, but because of his illegitimacy, he [Zelenskyy] has no right to sign anything," Putin told state Rossiya 1 TV late on Jan 28.
He added that he would "allocate people to take part" in negotiations if Zelenskyy would be present instead of holding direct talks face-to-face.
Putin has said several times he does not consider Zelenskyy a legitimate leader since Zelenskyy's five-year term in office was supposed to end last year on May 20.
An election was to have taken place on March 31, 2024, but was postponed because the country is still under martial law due to Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Zelenskyy, who under the constitution must continue to perform his duties until a new head of state is elected, responded to Putin's claim saying it is the Russian leader who is the obstacle to talks to end the fighting.
"Today, Putin once again confirmed that he is afraid of negotiations, afraid of strong leaders, and does everything possible to prolong the war," Zelenskyy wrote in a post on social media.
"Now we see that there is a possibility of achieving real peace, but it is Putin who is doing everything to either continue killing on a full scale instead of peace, or to get a pause in order to prepare a new full-scale invasion in the future, delivering hybrid strikes."
Ukraine has been under martial law since Russia launched its full-scale invasion in February 2022 and would have to amend the law in order to hold elections during a state of war.
Zelenskyy has been looking to the United States to put pressure on Moscow to end Russia’s all-out war on Ukraine amid reports that behind-the-scenes negotiations to resolve the conflict have been ramping up following the January 20 inauguration of President Donald Trump.
Since taking office, Trump has threatened to impose heavy taxes, tariffs, and sanctions on all goods coming from Russia to the United States and other countries if Moscow doesn't come to the negotiating table.
Syria demands Russian compensation for 'past mistakes' in first talks since Assad's fall.
Syria's new government pressed Russia for compensation and the correction of "past mistakes" during its first talks with a Kremlin delegation on Jan. 28, following the ouster of Russian-backed dictator Bashar al-Assad in December. The Kyiv Independent reported.
"The dialogue highlighted Russia’s role in rebuilding trust with the Syrian people through compensation, reconstruction, and recovery," a Syrian statement on the talks said.
Russia deployed troops to Syria in 2015 to support the Assad regime's brutal crackdown against anti-government forces. With Moscow's support, Assad's regime was free to imprison, torture, and murder hundreds of thousands of Syrians.
Assad would later flee to Moscow where he now resides.
Russia's delegation, which included Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov and President Vladimir Putin's special envoy for Syria, Alexander Lavrentyev, met with Syria's de facto leader, Ahmad al-Sharaa.
Bogdanov reportedly described the talks as constructive, acknowledging the "difficult situation." Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov refused to comment on the report about Syrian demands for compensation, Russian state news agency TASS reported.
Following Assad's ouster and flight to Russia, Moscow began withdrawing military assets, leaving the future of its bases in Tartus and Khmeimim uncertain.
Satellite images revealed that a "large amount" of Russian military equipment disappeared from Tartus after the cargo ship Sparta II's departure, investigative journalist Mark Krutov said on Jan. 27.
Ukraine has also engaged with Syria's new leadership, with Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha visiting Damascus on Dec. 30 to discuss Russia's military presence.
Ukrainian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Heorhii Tykhyi noted that Kyiv and Damascus share similar views on the issue, though details were not disclosed.
Zelenskyy recalls US and EU response to Ukraine's plea for arms ahead of 2022 invasion.
The United States refused to provide weapons before Russia's full-scale invasion on Feb. 24, 2022, leaving Ukraine to fight alone, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in a comment to Fox News. New Voice reports.
The head of state revealed that before the Russian invasion, he personally asked then-President Joe Biden and his administration to take preemptive actions, such as imposing sanctions on Russia, as Russian troops and tanks amassed at Ukraine's borders.
Zelenskyy also requested weapons, but he was told they would be provided only "if" Russia invaded.
"Parallel with that, I was asking the European Union countries, and they could not do it without [the] approval of the United States," he added.
“So they always look at the leader, the United States, as the leader. So, during the big invasion, Ukrainians were left on their own, and we were fighting on our own.”
Zelenskyy is convinced that if President Donald Trump has the desire to make Russian President Vladimir Putin come to peace, he can do it. "We want him to be on the side of justice, on the side of Ukraine," he said.
MILITARY & TECH
Russian assault intensity declines, focus on Pokrovsk sector
The intensity of Russian assault operations in Ukraine is declining but remains high, according to an analysis by the monitoring group DeepState, published on Jan. 28.
Russian forces have concentrated 44% of their attacks in the Pokrovsk sector, a crucial logistics hub for Ukrainian troops in Donetsk Oblast.
The peak intensity of Russian offensives was recorded in the second half of December, following a surge in attacks that began in late November.
Although the pace has slowed somewhat since the New Year, DeepState recorded the following attack numbers: 5,205 in November, 6,247 in December, and 4,304 in January as of Jan. 27.
Despite suffering heavy losses, Russian forces have reportedly been able to replenish their combat strength, allowing them to sustain attacks across multiple front-line sectors.
As part of this effort, Russia has intensified assaults near Pokrovsk, deploying small groups in an attempt to encircle Ukrainian troops, Viktor Trehubov, spokesperson for Ukraine's Khortytsia group of forces, said on Jan. 27.
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