THE RUSSO-UKRAINE WAR BRIEF
For: 2024-11-27
Slava Ukraini! In early 2022 I began a Telegram channel aggregating news from a number of sources daily on the war in Ukraine. In June 2023 I began providing a daily draft for the Ukraine War Brief Podcast collecting news from over 70 sources daily, which formed the basis of the script. While the Podcast no longer exists I have continued to make this Brief available for my followers here on Substack for those who wish to keep up with the news from the war. A version of this Brief will also be made available on The People’s Media Substack for those who should choose to subscribe there.
All the latest news on the Russo-Ukraine War 6 days per week
ALONG THE CONTACT LINE
GSAFU Morning Report
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in its Operational Information update at 22:00 on Nov 26 stated that day 1008 of the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation against Ukraine was about to begin.
During the past day, 208 combat engagements took place. Over the past 24 hours, the enemy carried out 1 missile strike, 31 air strikes, 700 drone strikes and more than 3,300 artillery strikes across the positions of Ukrainian forces.
At the same time, Ukrainian soldiers continue to inflict losses in manpower and equipment on the occupying troops, exhausting the enemy along the entire front line and continue to disrupt the plans of Russian occupiers to advance deep into the territory of Ukraine.
Air Force Daily Report
36 ENEMY UAVS SHOT DOWN, 48 LOST IN LOCATION, FIVE RETURNED HOME
➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖
On the night of November 27, 2024 (from 7:30 p.m. on November 26), the enemy attacked Ukraine with 89 attack UAVs of the "Shahed" type and unmanned aerial vehicles of an unknown type from the directions of Orel, Bryansk, Kursk, Primorsko-Akhtarsk - Russian Federation.
Aviation, anti-aircraft missile units, electronic warfare equipment and mobile fire groups of the Air Force and the Defense Forces of Ukraine were involved in repelling the attack.
As of 09:00, anti-aircraft defense shot down 36 enemy drones in Kyiv, Chernihiv, Sumy, Kharkiv, Poltava, Zhytomyr, Khmelnytskyi and Mykolaiv regions.
48 unmanned aerial vehicles — lost in location, presumably due to active countermeasures by the Defense Forces, 5 unmanned aerial vehicles left the controlled airspace in the direction of Belarus, Russia and temporarily occupied territories.
Due to the fall of debris from enemy UAVs, private and apartment buildings and property of citizens in the Kyiv region were damaged. Previously, there were no victims or victims.
The Russian Border Incursion
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a US based think tank, in its Nov 26 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment reported that Russian forces continued offensive operations in the main Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast on Nov26 but did not make any confirmed advances. Geolocated footage published on Nov 26 shows a Ukrainian brigade repelling a recent Russian reduced platoon-sized mechanized assault consisting of at least two vehicles south of Zeleny Shlyakh (southeast of Korenevo).
Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces advanced near Novoivanovka (southeast of Korenevo), Kamyshevka (north of Sudzha), Darino (southeast of Korenevo), and Kremyanoye (east of Korenevo) and that Ukrainian forces are counterattacking in the area. ISW has not observed confirmation of these claimed Russian advances. Elements of the Russian 810th Naval Infantry Brigade (Black Sea Fleet, Southern Military District [SMD]) are reportedly operating near Pogrebki (northwest of Sudzha).
Neither Russian nor Ukrainian sources reported fighting in Glushkovsky Raion west of the main Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast on November 26.
The Khortytsia operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the northeastern part of Ukraine. )
Kharkiv Sector: Over the last day Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 3 Russian attacks in the area of Vovchansk.
Kupyansk Sector: Russian Forces carried out 17 offensive actions against Ukrainian defensive positions near Synkivka, Kolisynivka, Senkove, Andriivka and Zelenyi Hai
Lyman Sector: Russian Forces carried out 21 offensive actions against Ukrainian defensive positions near Cherneshchyna, Druzhelyubivka, Hrekivka, Makiivka, Terny and Torske.
Siversk Sector: In this sector, over the last day, there has been no significant change in the combat environment. Russian forces carried out 1 offensive action against Ukrainian defences in the vicinity of Hryhorivka.
Kramatorsk Sector: Russian forces carried out 13 offensive actions against Ukrainian defences in the vicinity of Chasiv Yar, Stupochky, Predtechyne, Bila Hora and Dyliivka. The situation in this direction is controlled, with Defense Forces firmly holding their positions.
Toretsk Sector: Over the last day Russian forces carried out 6 offensive actions with air support near Dyliivka, Toretsk and Shcherbynivka.
The Tavria operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the central-eastern and southeastern part of Ukraine.)
Pokrovsk Sector : Over the last day in this sector, Russian Forces carried out 32 offensive actions against Ukrainian defensive positions in the vicinity of Myrolyubivka, Promin, Krasnyi Yar, Chunyshyne and Lysivka. 3 engagements are ongoing.
Kurakhove Sector: Over the last day in this district Russia conducted 39 offensive actions in the vicinity of Novodmytrivka, Kurakhove, Dachne, Dalnje, Hannivka, Romanivka, Yelyzavetivka and Katernyivka. 13 engagements are ongoing.
Vremivka Sector: Russian forces made 12 attempts to break through Ukrainian defences in the vicinity of Novodarivka Rivnopil, Rozdolne, Kostiantynopolske and Trudove
Orikhiv Sector: In this sector, over the last day, there has been no significant change in the combat environment.
The Odesa operational-strategic group
(Responsible for Kherson, Qırım, (also known as Crimea) and the Black Sea.)
Prydniprovsk Sector: In this sector, over the last day, there has been no significant change in the combat environment. Russian forces made 5 unsuccessful attempts to dislodge Ukrainian units from their positions.
TEMPORARILY OCCUPIED TERRITORIES
Russia claims Ukraine's drones, missiles attacked Crimea, explosion reported near airfield.
Ukrainian drones and missiles attacked the seaside city of Sevastopol in occupied Crimea on Nov. 27, the Kyiv Independent reported citing the city's Russian-installed proxy head, Mikhail Razvozhayev, claimed.
Russian air defenses shot down two missiles and five drones, Razvozhayev said, claiming that the Ukrainian projectiles were downed over the water. Drone debris also reportedly fell near the Kacha highway.
The pro-Ukrainian Crimean Wind Telegram channel reported explosions and active air defense in Sevastopol, as well as near the Belbek military airfield and elsewhere on the occupied peninsula.
The channel also shared a photo of the Nakhimov Naval Academy with smoke coming from behind it. The authenticity of the footage or the cause of the smoke could not be immediately verified.
The Mash Telegram channel alleged that around 40 drones, Neptune missiles, and unidentified cruise missiles were flying toward the northwestern part of the Crimean peninsula. All projectiles were shot down, the channel wrote.
Ukraine has repeatedly targeted Russian military and industrial targets in Sevastopol and elsewhere in Crimea during the full-scale war.
THE HOME FRONT
Ukraine receives $4.8 billion from the World Bank.
Ukraine has received a $4.8 billion loan from the World Bank through the PEACE project for social expenditures, Prime Minister Denys Shymhal said on Nov. 27. The Kyiv Independent reports.
"We are very grateful to the United States and the development partners who are financing assistance under the PEACE project," Shmyhal said on X.
As the ongoing full-scale Russian invasion continues to put pressure on Ukraine's economy, the World Bank plays a crucial role in supporting the country.
The Public Expenditures for Administrative Capacity Endurance Project (PEACE) helps to provide funding for pensions, support for internally displaced persons (IDP), and salaries for teachers, first responders, and other state employees.
"We thank the World Bank for its continued commitment and active support of initiatives that strengthen Ukraine."
Finance Minister Serhii Marchenko and the World Bank's Eastern Europe Operations Manager Kevin Tomlinson signed the agreement for the loan on Nov. 22.
Since the beginning of the full-scale invasion, about $35.5 billion has already been allocated through the PEACE project to support social expenditures of Ukraine's State Budget, Ukraine's Finance Ministry said.
RUSSIAN WORLD
Ruble Tumbles to Lowest Point Since March 2022
Russia’s Central Bank set the ruble’s official exchange rate at more than 105 against the U.S. dollar for Wednesday, marking its weakest valuation since the early days of Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. The Moscow Times reported in Nov 26.
The ruble’s decline comes amid a new raft of sanctions targeting Gazprombank and heightened tensions with the West, alongside what appears to be a Kremlin policy favoring a weaker currency.
On Tuesday, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov described the devaluation as “very, very favorable” for Russian exporters. A weaker ruble allows Russia to finance its war in Ukraine more effectively in the short term by reducing the real cost of arms purchases and soldiers’ salaries.
Analysts attribute the ruble’s slide to recent U.S. sanctions targeting Gazprombank and over 50 internationally connected Russian banks, coupled with the dollar’s rally following the U.S. presidential election. On the international foreign exchange market, the ruble fell to 107 against the dollar and 113 against the euro.
Russia’s Central Bank also pegged the ruble at 110.49 against the euro for Wednesday. Since June, when U.S. sanctions prompted the Moscow Exchange to suspend trading in dollars and euros, official rates have been based on over-the-counter transactions involving major exporters and commercial banks.
The ruble’s weakening threatens to erode Russians’ purchasing power by increasing the cost of imported goods. The currency hit a historic low of 150 per dollar shortly after the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, but it later recovered after the Central Bank imposed strict capital controls.
Grumpy here - I have included this handy dandy infographic provided by Rob that clearly indicates the loss in value of the ruble over the last month (on the left) and the last 24 hours (on the right). Things are not going well in Moscow. I’m sure Robbie will have more.
Putin Arrives in Kazakhstan for CSTO Security Summit
Russian President Vladimir Putin arrived in Kazakhstan on Wednesday for a two-day visit aimed at strengthening ties with Central Asian countries amid tensions over the war in Ukraine. The Moscow Times reports.
While Kazakhstan is a member of the Moscow-led CSTO security alliance, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev has expressed unease about the Kremlin’s full-scale invasion of its neighbor, which he has refused to publicly endorse.
In an article for the pro-Kremlin Izvestia newspaper ahead of Putin’s visit, Tokayev reiterated his support for “peaceful dialogue” without directly mentioning Ukraine.
Russian state media broadcast footage of Putin’s arrival in Kazakhstan’s capital, where trade and energy cooperation are expected to dominate discussions.
Recent months have seen friction in the two countries’ relations, with Moscow banning certain Kazakh agricultural exports and Kazakhstan declining to join the BRICS economic bloc in September.
Expanding BRICS has become a key pillar of Russia’s foreign policy, with Putin positioning the group as a counterweight to what he views as Western global dominance.
Ukraine is expected to be a central topic during Thursday’s summit of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), where Putin will join leaders from other member states to discuss security issues. According to Russian state-run news agency TASS, the discussions will include Ukraine’s use of long-range Western-supplied missiles to strike Russian territory.
Armenia will be notably absent, having suspended its CSTO membership over dissatisfaction with Russia’s lack of support during its recent clashes with Azerbaijan. Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov has said Armenia remains a “fully-fledged member” and could return at any time.
Putin and Tokayev will also focus on economic and energy cooperation, including the potential construction of Kazakhstan’s first nuclear power plant, for which Russia’s state-owned Rosatom is a leading contender.
Kazakhstan, which accounts for 43% of global uranium production, does not currently operate any nuclear reactors. Putin emphasized that Rosatom was “ready for new large-scale projects with Kazakhstan.”
Several bilateral agreements are expected to be signed during the visit, and both leaders will address the media later on Wednesday.
Putin’s visit highlights the strategic importance of Central Asia to Moscow, as the region remains one of the few areas where the Russian leader continues to maintain regular diplomatic engagements since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Russia Using Tu-160 Bombers Transferred From Ukraine 25 Years Ago
Russia is deploying strategic bombers given to Moscow by Kyiv 25 years ago, according to a new investigation. Newsweek reports.
The U.S.-backed Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL) project reported on Tuesday that serial numbers of six Tu-160 heavy strategic bombers transferred from Ukraine to Russia a quarter of a century ago matched numbers of long-range aircraft being used by Moscow's military.
Three Tu-95MS aircraft—also strategic bombers—were sent from Ukraine to Russia under the deal inked in 1999, and have since been used by Russia's long-range aviation pilots, according to the report. Newsweek could not independently verify this, and has reached out to the Russian Defense Ministry for comment via email.
The Tu-160 is also known by its NATO moniker Blackjack. The aircraft is part of Russia's heavy bomber fleet, able to carry nuclear weapons.
Kyiv dismantled tens of strategic bombers under nuclear arms limitation conditions, and transferred several of the remaining Tu-160 and Tu-95 aircraft and missiles to Russia in 1999 under an agreement to partly settle a natural gas debt to Moscow.
In August 2023, RFE/RL reported that K-55 air-launched cruise missiles also handed over in the deal just before the turn of the century had been used to strike Ukraine during the full-scale war from February 2022.
Russia's long-range aviation bomber fleet "received a considerable boost" from these transfers, including the nearly 600 Kh-55 missiles, the U.S. nonprofit, the Nuclear Threat Initiative, has said. The 11 bombers sent to Russia were integrated into Russia's heavy bomber forces and put into service in late 2000 after maintenance works, the NTI added.
Nuclear weapons and cruise missiles had been stationed at silos and bases in Ukraine during the Cold War. When the Soviet Union crumbled, Ukraine gave up its nuclear weapons in the mid-1990s in exchange for security guarantees from Russia, the U.S. and the U.K.
RFE/RL's investigative branch said at least six of the Ukrainian-transferred Tu-160 heavy bombers remain operational with Russia's military. Ukraine's GUR military intelligence agency provided the serial numbers of bombers in service in Russia, which were compared to aviation records and registries, according to the report.
Earlier this month, Ukraine's air force said Russia launched a "massive" combined attack on Ukraine, firing more than 200 missiles and drones at the war-torn country.
Wounded Russian soldiers riot in protest.
The UK Ministry of Defence in their Nov 27 Intelligence Update on Ukraine stated that Russian media reported on November 14, 2024 that dozens of injured Russian soldiers rioted in Novosibirsk, south central Russia, due to inadequate medical care. The soldiers, from the 41st Combined Arms Army, Central Military District, reportedly complained of mistreatment by their unit commander and did not want to return to the frontlines without adequate medical treatment. They are said to have smashed windows and damaged the barracks, with 10 fleeing the compound, the UK Defense Intelligence reports.
Shortages of armoured vehicles and the persistent uncrewed aerial vehicle threat result in significant delays to evacuation of wounded Russian soldiers. This almost certainly increases the likelihood of more serious injuries and higher rates of mortality for those who are eventually evacuated through the medical system.
According to the Ukrainian General Staff, Russia has suffered over 700,000 casualties since February 2022, [The current estimate is actually 735,410] of which approximately 500,000 Russian service personnel were wounded. It is almost certain this scale of casualties continues to strain the Russian Military Medical System at all levels of medical care, causing significant logistic problems and resulting in a shortage of medical personnel. These problems will likely persist for at least the next three months.
INTERNATIONAL NEWS
Poland Arrests German Man Over Alleged Export of Dual-Use Technology to Russia
Polish law enforcement authorities arrested a German man on allegations of exporting dual-use technology to Russia that was used for arms production, Reuters reported on Wednesday citing Poland’s security service.
The man was arrested in the Lubusz province, which borders Germany in western Poland, and charged with “brokering and exporting dual-use goods to Russian territory,” the security service said in a statement.
Without giving details, the statement said the man had traded in “specialist machines” that were “illegally sent to Russian military plants involved in weapons production.” The statement also said the man admitted his guilt.
Europe and the U.S. have been trying to crack down on companies sending dual-use technology to Russia through third countries to avoid sanctions. In May, the EU announced new measures to combat sanctions evasion.
Ukraine regularly says the missiles fired by Russia contain parts produced in Western countries.
Washington unveiled a new round of sanctions on Russian banks this month, which it said would disrupt “Russia’s attempts to make cross-border payments for dual-use goods and military materiel.”
Biden seeks $24B more for Ukraine aid and weapons replenishment.
President Joe Biden is quietly making a long-shot request to lawmakers for another $24 billion to aid Ukraine and replace U.S. weapons that have been sent into the fight against Russia before he leaves office. Politico reports.
The news comes amid the Biden administration's efforts to ship in as much aid to Ukraine as possible before Donald Trump, who has criticized military support for Kyiv, takes office in January.
Roughly $16 billion of the sum would be used to restock U.S. arsenals, while the remaining $8 billion would go to the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI), the outlet wrote. The USAI is a Pentagon-led program for supplying arms to Ukraine through contracts with U.S. defense companies.
Two congressional sources confirmed the information for Politico and said that Congress received the request on Nov. 25.
The White House suggested that Congress could include the assistance in its effort to avert a government shut down next month, according to the document obtained by Politico.
The report aligns with earlier statements from Biden's team that the White House would seek Congress' approval for additional aid for Ukraine in 2025.
In recent days, the Biden administration has made a series of decisions aimed at giving Kyiv leverage in future negotiations. These steps included approving the delivery of anti-personnel mines and granting permission for Ukraine to launch U.S.-made long-range ATACMS at targets within Russia.
The request for additional funding has already received pushback from critics of Washington's pro-Ukraine policy.
Republican Senator and Trump's ally Mike Lee said that "Congress must not give him (Biden) a free gift to further sabotage President Trump’s peace negotiations on the way out the door."
"This is not normal," said billionaire Elon Musk, seen as an increasingly influential figure in Trump's inner circle, in a post on X. He also said the reported move is "Funding the forever war."
Trump said he would seek to get the U.S. "out" of the war and bring Russia and Ukraine to the negotiating table. While the details of his plan remain unclear, some reports indicate it might entail Ukraine ceding territory and at least temporarily foregoing its NATO aspirations.
It remains unclear whether the funding request will be successful, as Congress – namely the Republican-led House of Representatives – stalled an earlier $61 billion assistance bill for months before finally approving it in April.
The November elections reinforced Republican control over the legislature, as the party also secured the majority in the Senate. The new Congress will be sworn in in early January.
MILITARY & TECH
Nothing major to report.
That’s it for today’s Brief folks if you would like to keep up with events in Ukraine daily please consider subscribing.
Feel free to share this update with your friends. Heroyam Slava!