THE RUSSO-UKRAINE WAR BRIEF
For: 2024-10-04
Slava Ukraini! In early 2022 I began a Telegram channel aggregating news from a number of sources daily on the war in Ukraine. In June 2023 I began providing a daily draft for the Ukraine War Brief Podcast collecting news from over 70 sources daily, much of which formed the basis of the script. While the Podcast no longer exists I have continued to make this Brief available both on my own Substack and The People’s Media for those who wish to keep up with events on a daily basis.
All the latest news on the Russo-Ukraine War 6 days per week
ALONG THE CONTACT LINE
GSAFU Morning Report
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in its Operational Information update at 22:00 on Oct 3 stated that day 954 of the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation against Ukraine was about to begin.
During the past day, 132 combat engagements took place. Over the past 24 hours, the enemy carried out 3 missile strikes, 48 air strikes, 788 drone strikes and more than 3,000 artillery strikes across the positions of Ukrainian forces.
At the same time, Ukrainian soldiers continue to inflict losses in manpower and equipment on the occupying troops, exhausting the enemy along the entire front line and continue to disrupt the plans of Russian occupiers to advance deep into the territory of Ukraine.
Air Force Daily Report
On the night of October 4, 2024, the enemy attacked the objects of critical infrastructure of Ukraine, releasing from the districts of Primorsko-Akhtarsk, Kursk - Russian Federation. and Cape Chauda - Crimea 19 attack UAVs of the "Shahed" type.
9 attack UAVs were shot down by air defence in Kyiv, Cherkasy, Kirovohrad and Kherson regions. 7 enemy unmanned aerial vehicles were lost in location, presumably as a result of countermeasures by EW (information about the destruction and casualties was not received).
The Russian Border Incursion
Ukraine continues ground assaults in Kursk
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a US based think tank, in its Oct 3 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment stated that Ukrainian forces continued ground assaults in Glushkovsky Raion on Oct 3 but did not make any confirmed advances. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed on October 3 that Ukrainian forces tried to break through Russian positions near Novy Put (south of Veseloye). A Russian milblogger claimed on October 2 that Russian forces regained lost positions near Veseloye (south of Glushkovo) and that fighting continued near the settlement. Elements of the Russian 83rd Airborne (VDV) Brigade are reportedly operating in Glushkovsky Raion.
Fighting continued in the main Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast on Oct 3, but there were no confirmed changes to the frontline. Russian sources, including the Russian MoD, claimed that fighting continued east of Korenevo near Olgovka and Kremyanoye, southeast of Korenevo near Obukhovka and Nikolayevo-Darino, north of Sudzha near Novosyolovka, and southeast of Sudzha near Plekhovo. Elements of the Russian 51st VDV Regiment (106th VDV Division) and the ”Aida” group of ”Akhmat” Spetsnaz are reportedly operating in Kursk Oblast. Elements of the Russian 810th Guards Naval Infantry Brigade (Black Sea Fleet [BSF], Southern Military District [SMD]) are reportedly operating near Plekhovo (southeast of Sudzha).
The Khortytsia operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the northeastern part of Ukraine. )
Kharkiv Sector: Over the last day Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 3 Russian attacks near Starysya and Vovchansk.
Kupyansk Sector: Russian Forces carried out 11 offensive actions against Ukrainian defensive positions near Synkivka, Petropavlivka, Kuryiivka, Pishchane, Vyshneve and Pershotravneve. 2 engagements continue.
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Lyman Sector: Russian Forces carried out 13 offensive actions against Ukrainian defensive positions near Druzhelyubivka, Hrekivka, Makiivka, Novosadove, Torske and Dronivka.
Siversk Sector: Russian forces carried out 1 unsuccessful assault in the vicinity of Spirne.
Kramatorsk Sector: Russian forces carried out 6 offensive actions near Stupochky, Andriivka and Bila Hora.
Toretsk Sector: Russian forces carried out 9 offensive actions with air support near Dachne, Toretsk and Nelipivka. 4 engagements continue.
The Tavria operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the central-eastern and southeastern part of Ukraine.)
Pokrovsk Sector : The main efforts of the enemy continue to focus in this direction. Russian forces conducted 28 unsuccessful attacks against Ukrainian defences in the vicinity of Suha Balka, Novotoretske, Promin, Krutnyi Yar and Lysivka.
Kurakhove Sector: This sector was also very active. The enemy, supported by aviation, made 26 assaults on Ukrainian positions near Tsukuryne, Novoselydivka, Heorhiivka, Antonivka, Katerynivka,Konstantinivka and Trudove. 2 engagements are ongoing.
Vremivka Sector: Russian forces made 4 assaults against Ukrainian positions near Bohoyavlenka and Maksymivka.
Orikhiv Sector: Russian forces made 2 attempts to advance against Ukrainian positions near Kamyanske and Novodanylivka.
The Odesa operational-strategic group
(Responsible for Kherson, Qırım, (also known as Crimea) and the Black Sea.)
Prydniprovsk Sector: There has been no significant change in the combat environment in the last 24 hours.
TEMPORARILY OCCUPIED TERRITORIES
Car Bomb Kills Security Chief at Ukraine's Russian-Held ZNPP
The head of security at the Russian-controlled Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in southern Ukraine has been killed in a car bombing, authorities in Kyiv and Moscow said Friday. The Moscow Times report.
Ukraine’s HUR military intelligence agency said Andriy Korotkiy was inside his vehicle when it was hit by an explosion at around 7:00 a.m. local time in the Russian-occupied city of Enerhodar.
The HUR shared a blurry surveillance video of a white SUV being ripped apart by a powerful blast. The video’s authenticity could not be independently verified.
Russia’s Investigative Committee, which probes major crimes, said its Zaporizhzhia region branch launched a criminal murder case over the incident. It said the victim, who was only identified by his job title and not by name, died from injuries in the hospital.
Ukraine’s HUR accused Korotkiy of defecting to the Russian occupying authorities and helping them commit “war crimes and repossessions against Ukrainians under occupation.”
Russia seized control of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, the largest in Europe, days after it launched the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
THE HOME FRONT
EU Delegation demands transparency in asset management
The EU Delegation is demanding that the Asset Recovery and Management Agency be reformed to continue providing financial assistance to Ukraine. This was reported by the press service of the Delegation in response to a request by UNN.
The diplomatic body emphasised that Ukraine has committed itself to reforming the legislative framework for ARMA and its activities by the end of the first quarter of 2025.
The reform should include several important aspects, such as a transparent selection of the head of ARMA, including verification of his integrity and professionalism. It is also necessary to establish an independent system of external evaluation of the agency's activities and to ensure transparency in the management and sale of assets transferred to ARMA.
They also noted that they will monitor ARMA's activities and are ready to provide technical assistance and support the development of the Ukrainian agency's capacity, if the need arises.
The Ukraine Facility program (the EU's financial support program for Ukraine) envisages providing Ukraine with 50 billion euros over the next four years. As reported by MP Yaroslav Zheleznyak, among the requirements for the funding, among other things, in the first quarter of 2025, the ARMA should be reformed, which should include changes in the selection of the agency's head and a transparent procedure for managing and selling seized assets.
Statements about the non-transparent and ineffective work of the ARMA and its head, Olena Duma, have been made repeatedly. A petition has even appeared on the website of the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine calling for the dismissal of Olena Duma from her position due to her alleged ties to pro-Russian politicians and ineffective management of seized assets.
In addition, all members of the ARMA's public council recently resigned. At the meeting, they emphasised the lack of transparency in the work of the ARMA and the fact that the agency creates artificial obstacles to the implementation of public control over its activities. They also stated that the ARMA management systematically ignores their appeals and does not involve them in the development of regulations, in violation of the law.
Ihor Chobitko, the former chairman of the public council at the ARMA, in a commentary to UNN , emphasised that after the self-dissolution of the public council, the ARMA was left without external control, and therefore cannot be called transparent.
Two Ukrainian regional officials arrested on corruption charges
The Kyiv Independent has reported, citing a statement by the State Bureau of Investigation (SBI) that two Ukrainian officials from western Khmelnytskyi Oblast have been arrested on suspicion of corruption, during raids on their homes nearly $6 million in cash was discovered.
The homes and workplaces of the head of the Khmelnytskyi Regional Center for Medical and Social Expertise and her son, a senior official in the main department of Ukraine's Pension Fund in the region, were searched in another case when the cash was exposed.
The case concerned the forging of official documents to illegally register a disability for men attempting to evade military service. At first, the law enforcement found $100,000 and forged medical documents with the names of men with non-existent diagnoses, according to the SBI.
Almost $5.2 million, 300,000 euros ($330,000), more than Hr 5 million, as well as branded jewellery and valuables were found at the officials' homes, according to the statement.
Also, the documents with evidence of money laundering through various business projects were seized.
The two also reportedly own 30 properties in the western cities of Khmelnytskyi and Lviv, as well as in Kyiv, nine cars, a hotel and restaurant complex, and real estate in Austria, Spain, and Turkey. They have almost $2.3 million held in foreign bank accounts, the SBI said. None of this has been mentioned in their asset declarations.
If the two officials are charged, they can face up to 12 years in prison with confiscation of all of their property.
RUSSIAN WORLD
Oil depots on fire in Russia's Voronezh Oblast, Perm Krai
Fires broke out at two oil depots in Russia's Voronezh Oblast and Perm Krai overnight on Oct. 4, The Kyiv Independent reported citing local authorities.
According to the Russian Defense Ministry, its air defense downed six Ukrainian drones over Voronezh Oblast, six over Belgorod Oblast, one over Rostov Oblast and one over the Azov Sea.
Ukraine attacked the Annanefteprodukt fuel and lubricants storage base near the village of Anna in Voronezh Oblast, Ukraine's General Staff said. It was not specified what kind of weapon was used in the attack.
A source in the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) told the Kyiv Independent later that the oil depot was struck with drones operated by the SBU.
According to the source, the oil storage facility housed 20 tanks with fuel and lubricants. "It was confirmed that at least one of the vertical tanks was hit," the General Staff said.
Aleksandr Gusev, Voronezh Oblast governor, claimed that an empty tank at an oil storage facility was hit during the drone attack and put out later.
A large-scale fire also broke out at an oil depot in the village of Osentsy in Perm Krai. Russia's Perm Krai lies around 1,800 kilometers northeast of Ukraine.
The fire engulfed fuel tanks and spread over 10,000 square meters, the Russian Emergency Situations Ministry reported.
NEWS WORLDWIDE
EU suspends high-level meetings with Georgian government
The European Union (EU) has suspended high-level meetings with representatives of the Georgian government due to the anti-European actions and rhetoric of the ruling party, according to EU Ambassador to Georgia Paweł Herczyński. RBC-Ukraine reports.
EU Ambassador noted that an internal discussion took place among EU member states in the summer regarding the approach to Georgia's government, which has been unfriendly toward the bloc. The anti-Western and anti-European narratives were discussed, as well as propaganda and conspiracy theories, leading to the decision to halt high-level contacts with the current government.
"If Georgia becomes a one-party state, a country where political opposition is banned, where civil society must go abroad to work, and where fundamental human rights, not to mention minority rights, are not protected, Georgia will not be able to become a member of the European Union - not today, not tomorrow, not the day after tomorrow," the Ambassador emphasised.
He also expressed hope that during the elections on October 26, Georgia will elect a new government that aligns with EU values.
"It’s up to you, Georgian voters, to decide which party to vote for, but I must say: please go and vote, your vote is really important. We sincerely hope that turnout in the upcoming elections on October 26 will be historically high and that you will collectively decide the future of your country," he added.
EU Moves to Sanction Iran for Providing Missiles to Russia
The European Union is progressing toward a package of sanctions targeting Iran for providing Russia with ballistic missiles, according to people familiar with the matter. Bloomberg reports.
A first set of measures would hit about a dozen individuals and entities, including engineering, metals and aviation companies, the people said. The bloc aims to approve the move by the time EU leaders gather for a summit in Brussels later this month, said the people.
Iran delivered ballistic missiles to Russia last month, according to US and European assessments. That prompted an initial set of penalties from the US, Germany, France and the UK. Iran has also provided Moscow with hundreds of attack drones and other weapons during Russia’s 2 1/2-year war against Ukraine, but the transfer of ballistic missiles marks deeper involvement in the conflict. Tehran denies sending the missiles to Russia.
Ukraine’s armed forces said last week that they had taken out a stockpile of weapons in Russia that included a cache of Iranian missiles.
MILITARY & TECH
ISW: Russian army does not have enough resources to continue intensified offensive
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a US based think tank, in its Oct 3 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment assessed that The Russian offensive effort in eastern Ukraine that began in fall 2023 continues to produce gradual Russian tactical gains in specific sectors of the front, but operationally significant gains will likely continue to elude Russian forces. Ukrainian forces are conducting an effective defence in depth along the frontline, inflicting significant losses upon Russian forces while slowly giving ground but preventing the Russian military from making more rapid gains on the battlefield.
Ukrainian forces do face serious operational challenges and constraints, which are providing Russian forces with opportunities to pursue tactically significant gains. Russian forces do not have the available manpower and materiel to continue intensified offensive efforts indefinitely, however, and current Russian offensive operations in eastern Ukraine will likely culminate in the coming months, if not weeks, as Ukrainian officials and ISW have previously assessed.
Russian forces have recently made notable tactical gains but have not demonstrated a capacity to seize operationally significant objectives. ISW distinguishes between tactical gains, which are relevant at the tactical level of war in the near vicinity of the fighting, and operational gains, which are significant at the operational level of war and affect large sectors of the entire frontline.
Russian forces seized Vuhledar in western Donetsk Oblast as of October 1, and the settlement will likely afford Russian forces an improved tactical position for pursuing their operational effort to advance towards the H-15 (Donetsk City–Zaporizhzhia City) highway and eliminate the wide Ukrainian salient in western Donetsk Oblast.
The Russian seizure of Vuhledar will not on its own radically change the operational situation in western Donetsk Oblast, however, and Russian forces will likely struggle to achieve their operational objectives in the area during the ongoing offensive operation in western Donetsk Oblast.
Russian offensive operations that are pursuing operationally significant objectives, like the Russian effort to seize Chasiv Yar or to push Ukrainian forces off the left (east) bank of the Oskil River, have either stalled or are resulting in particularly gradual gains over long stretches of time, respectively.
The Russian military command prepared the ongoing Russian summer 2024 offensive operation for months in advance and accumulated operational reserves and resources for the operation that the recent months of attritional fighting have likely heavily degraded.
Russian forces reportedly aimed to establish a new operational grouping of forces with uncommitted operational reserves of up to 70,000 personnel for the offensive operation into northern Kharkiv Oblast in May 2024 while also establishing operational reserves for the Central Grouping of Forces' push to Pokrovsk this summer. Russian forces have likely expended a good portion of these reserves on the stalling offensive operation into northern Kharkiv Oblast, the intensified offensive tempo in the Pokrovsk direction and western Donetsk Oblast, and the response to the Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast.
Russian forces have reportedly committed a significant portion of their intended operational reserves to offensive operations in Donetsk and northern Kharkiv oblasts, indicating that the Russian military command may have prioritised forming operational reserves to support offensive operations in priority sectors of the frontline over developing theatre-wide strategic reserves for the entire offensive campaign in Ukraine.
ISW has recently observed confirmation that some of these formations have been deployed to the Kharkiv and Pokrovsk directions.
The Russian military command is continuing to prioritise offensive operations in priority sectors of the frontline over long-term planning for Russia's theatre-wide campaign in Ukraine, but the Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast appears to have significantly complicated the development of Russia's operational reserves.
France to send another 12 Caesar howitzers to Ukraine, minister says
French-German defence company KNDS signed a deal on Oct. 3 for the supply of 12 Caesar howitzers financed by Ukraine, The Kyiv Independent reported citing a statement by French Defense Minister Sebastien Lecornu.
The news came days after KNDS announced it had opened an office in Kyiv to support Ukraine carry out the domestic maintenance and repair of land systems and produce artillery ammunition.
"Increasing the production capacity of our defence industry helps to support Ukraine," Lecornu said.
France has supplied Ukraine with dozens of Caesar howitzers, a self-propelled artillery system capable of hitting targets up to 55 kilometres (34 miles) away.
The company said it makes around 800 systems used by or contracted for the Ukrainian army, including the Caesar, the Gepard self-propelled anti-aircraft gun tank, and the PzH 2000 armoured howitzer.
KNDS is also planning to jointly manufacture NATO-standard 155 mm artillery ammunition and produce spare parts with the Ukrainian industry.
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