THE RUSSO-UKRAINE WAR BRIEF

For: 2024-09-28

Sep 28, 2024

Slava Ukraini! In early 2022 I began a Telegram channel aggregating news from a number of sources daily on the war in Ukraine. In June 2023 I began providing a daily draft for the Ukraine War Brief Podcast collecting news from over 70 sources daily, much of which formed the basis of the script. While the Podcast no longer exists I have continued to make this Brief available both on my own Substack and The People’s Media for those who wish to keep up with events on a daily basis.

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ALONG THE CONTACT LINE

GSAFU Morning Report

The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in its Operational Information update at 22:00 on Sep 27 stated that day 948 of the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation against Ukraine was about to begin.

During the past day, 170 combat engagements took place. Over the past 24 hours, the enemy carried out 66 air strikes, 676 drone strikes and more than 3,700 artillery strikes across the positions of Ukrainian forces.

At the same time, Ukrainian soldiers continue to inflict losses in manpower and equipment on the occupying troops, exhausting the enemy along the entire front line and continue to disrupt the plans of Russian occupiers to advance deep into the territory of Ukraine.

Air Force Daily Report

On the night of September 28, 2024 (from 19.00 on 27.09 to 08.00 on 28.09), the radio engineering troops of the Air Force detected and escorted the 77th means of air attack of the enemy:

- two Iskander-M ballistic missiles from occupied Crimea;
- two Kh-59/69 guided air missiles from the airspace of the TOT of the Zaporizhia Region;
- 73 attack unmanned aerial vehicles of the "Shahed" type from the regions of Kursk, Primorsko-Akhtarsk, Orel - Russian Federation, Cape Chauda - Crimea.

The air attack was repulsed by aviation, anti-aircraft missile forces, electronic warfare units and mobile fire groups of the Air Force and the Defense Forces of Ukraine.

As a result of the anti-aircraft battle, two Kh-59/69 guided air missiles and 69 enemy attack UAVs of the "Shahed" type were shot down in the Kyiv, Cherkasy, Vinnytsia, Kirovohrad, Rivne, Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, Poltava, Sumy, Kharkiv, Kherson, Odesa and Mykolaiv regions . One drone flew in the direction of Russia, three more were lost in location on the territory of Ukraine.

The Russian Border Incursion

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a US based think tank, in its Sep 27 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment assessed that Ukrainian forces continued ground assaults in Glushkovsky Raion, Kursk Oblast on Sep 27 but did not make any confirmed gains. Russian sources, including the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD), claimed that Russian forces repelled Ukrainian assaults south of Glushkovo near Veseloye, Krasnooktyabrskoye, Novy Put, and Medvezhye on Sep 26 and 27.

The Russian MoD claimed that Russian forces also counterattacked near Novy Put. Elements of the Russian 56th Airborne (VDV) Regiment (7th VDV Division) are reportedly defending against Ukrainian assaults in Glushkovsky Raion.

Ukrainian forces continued assaults in the Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast on Sep 27 but did not make any confirmed advances. Russian sources, including the Russian MoD, claimed that Ukrainian forces attacked southeast of Korenevo near Lyubimovka and south of Sudzha near Plekhovo.

Russian forces conducted counterattacks in the Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast on Sep 27 but did not make any confirmed gains. A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces advanced near Plekhovo, but ISW has not observed visual confirmation of this claim. Russian milbloggers claimed on Sep 26 and 27 that fighting is ongoing in forest areas between Plekhovo and Borki (immediately east of Plekhovo) and that dense minefields in the area are slowing Russian progress. The Russian MoD claimed that Russian forces conducted assaults southeast of Korenevo near Lyubimovka, Darino, and Nikolayevo-Daryino and south of Sudzha near Plekhovo.

The Khortytsia operational-strategic group

(Responsible for the northeastern part of Ukraine. )

Kharkiv Sector: Over the last day Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 6 Russian attacks near Vovchansk and Tykhe. 3 engagements continue. The situation is under control.

Kupyansk Sector: Russian Forces carried out 16 unsuccessful offensive actions against Ukrainian defensive positions near Synkivka, Stepova Novoselivka, Kuryiivka, Hlushkivka, Kruhlyakivka and Lozova, 6 engagements continue.

Lyman Sector: Russian Forces carried out 14 offensive actions against Ukrainian defensive positions near Hrekivka, Makiivka, Nevske, Novosadove and Torske. 2 engagements continue.

Siversk Sector: There has been no significant change in the combat environment in the last 24 hours.

Kramatorsk Sector: Russian forces carried out 9 offensive actions near Hryhorivka, Chasiv Yar, Predtechyne and Bila Hora.

Toretsk Sector: Russian forces carried out 7 offensive actions with air support near Toretsk, Shcherbynivka and Nui-York.

The Tavria operational-strategic group

(Responsible for the central-eastern and southeastern part of Ukraine.)

Pokrovsk Sector : Russian forces conducted 47 attacks against Ukrainian defences in this area over the last day in the vicinity of,Vozdvyzhenko, Novotoretske, Hrodivka, Mykolaivka, Krutnyi Yar, Lysivka, Dachenske, Novohrodivka, Marynivka and Selydone. 2 engagements continue.

Kurakhove Sector: The enemy, supported by aviation, made 26 assaults on Ukrainian positions near Tsukuryne, Heorhiivka, Katerynivka and Konstantinivka. 3 engagements are ongoing.

Vremivka Sector: Russian forces made 11 assaults against Ukrainian positions near Bohoyavlenka, Vuhledar and Vodiane.

Russia preparing for new assault operations in Zaporizhzhia

Vladyslav Voloshyn, spokesman for Defence Forces of Ukraine's South, has reported that Ukrainian intelligence and the military are aware of Russian plans to launch assaults on the Zaporizhzhia front. Ukrainska Pravda reports.

"The Russians are preparing for assault operations on the Zaporizhzhia front, in particular, in the area of Pryiutne. Our intelligence data indicates that the enemy is assembling personnel to be used in assault operations.
In addition, a few days ago, the invaders received 25 light buggy vehicles from the motor transport depot of the Southern District of the Russian Federation, intended for use in assault operations involving small infantry units.
These are the signs of preparations for assault operations on the Zaporizhzhia front shortly."

In addition, Voloshyn stressed that Russian forces are concentrating assault group personnel on the forward positions, so Ukrainian troops are expecting the Russians to intensify their activities in this area.

The spokesman explained that he was referring to assault operations, not offensive actions, which would require the concentration of larger forces. He added that Russia is attempting to improve its tactical position through these assaults.

Orikhiv Sector: Russian forces made 3 assaults against Ukrainian positions near Mali Shcherbaky, Novodanylivka and Robotyne.

The Odesa operational-strategic group

(Responsible for Kherson, Qırım, (also known as Crimea) and the Black Sea.)

Prydniprovsk Sector: In this sector, over the last day, the situation has not changed significantly. Russian forces made 2 unsuccessful attempts to force Ukrainian units from their positions on the left bank of the Dnipro.

TEMPORARILY OCCUPIED TERRITORIES

Nothing major to report.

THE HOME FRONT

Russian attacks on medical centre in Ukraine's Sumy kills 9

Russian forces hit a medical center in Sumy in northeastern Ukraine on Saturday morning then struck again as the building was being evacuated, killing a total of nine people, Ukrainian officials said. Reuters reports.

Ukrainian prosecutors said that at the time of the attacks, 86 patients and 38 staff members were in the hospital.

"The first attack killed one person and damaged the ceilings of several floors of the hospital," Interior Minister Ihor Klymenko said on Telegram.

As people were being evacuated, the Russians struck again, killing a further five people, he said.

Ukrainian emergencies service later said nine people were killed and 10 wounded in all.

"Everyone in the world who talks about this war should pay attention to where Russia is hitting. They are fighting hospitals, civilian objects, and people's lives," Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Telegram.

"Only force can force Russia to peace. Peace through force is the only right way."

Klymenko did not specify what weapons were used in Saturday's attacks but the regional administration and air forces said the strike was carried out by drones.

Attacks on Sumy city and the Sumy region have become much more frequent since Ukrainian forces launched an operation in Russia's Kursk region in August and captured dozens of settlements.

Sumy city is located just 32 km (20 miles) from the Russian border and Russian forces, which began a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, have been attacking the region and the city with drones and guided bombs.

Ukrainian air forces earlier on Saturday said they had shot down 69 of 73 drones during an overnight Russian attack that included two ballistic and two cruise missiles.

About 15 Russian attack drones were destroyed by air defences in the capital Kyiv and on its outskirts, the military administration there said.

Russia’s Ongoing War on Ukraine’s Healthcare System

The UK Ministry of Defence in their sep 28 Intelligence Update on Ukraine stated that Russia’s unrelenting assault on Ukrainian healthcare facilities continues, with over 2,000 attacks reported since February 2022.

In July, a Russian airstrike targeted children’s hospital in Kyiv, marking just one of 2,013 attacks on Ukrainian healthcare facilities since the start of the full-scale invasion in February 2022. These deliberate strikes have devastated the country’s healthcare infrastructure, making it increasingly difficult to provide care to civilians, the UK Defense Intelligence reports.

Russia’s aggression includes 235 attacks on healthcare workers, 350 assaults on medical transport, and 453 strikes that have impacted the availability of crucial medical supplies. The human toll is staggering: 176 lives lost and 554 more injured as a direct result of these assaults on healthcare.

RUSSIAN WORLD

Putin aide accuses West of trying to isolate Russia's Kaliningrad exclave

An aide to President Vladimir Putin accused the West on Friday of trying to isolate Russia's European exclave of Kaliningrad as much as possible by restricting the supply of goods to it by road and rail. Reuters reports.

Kaliningrad, an exclave on the Baltic coast sandwiched between NATO and European Union members Lithuania and Poland, is home to Russia's Baltic Fleet. EU sanctions imposed on Moscow over its war in Ukraine ban the transport of certain goods there.

Nikolai Patrushev, an adviser to Putin known for his hawkish views on the West, visited Kaliningrad on Friday where he complained that 80% of goods which he said were essential for the exclave could not be brought by land.

"The countries of the West are trying to complicate cargo and passenger transit to Kaliningrad to the maximum extent in order to isolate the Kaliningrad region and to disrupt transport links with the main territory of Russia," the state TASS news agency quoted Patrushev as saying.

He was quoted as saying Russia had been forced to supply the exclave with much of what it needed by sea, including on a ferry which operates between Kaliningrad and a port in the Leningrad region.

Work was underway to move the transit of diesel fuel, cement, and other materials to a specialised tanker fleet, he added, while two rail and road ferries were being built to try to improve transport links. Those vessels were due to be completed in 2028, Patrushev was quoted as saying by TASS.

NEWS WORLDWIDE

West must draw its own red lines for Russia, urges veteran German diplomat

Veteran German diplomat Wolfgang Ischinger suggests the West should be more assertive in setting its own red lines for Russia in the Ukraine war said in an interview with Politico.

This call comes as Russia repeatedly uses threats of escalation to constrain Western support for Ukraine. These “red lines” from Moscow, often proving flexible or hollow, have allowed Putin to dictate terms of engagement.

“Russia keeps saying, if you do this, if you cross this or that red line, we might escalate,” said the 78-year-old onetime chairman of the Munich Security Conference.
“Why don’t we turn this thing around and say to them: ‘We have lines, and if you bomb one more civilian building, then you shouldn’t be surprised if, say, we deliver Taurus cruise missiles, or America allows Ukraine to strike military targets inside Russia’?” he proposed.

“Of course, as many of my friends remind me, the problem, is that if you paint a red line you've got to stick to it. You can’t do what Barack Obama did with his Syrian red line against the use of chemical weapons, which he then didn’t enforce.” Ischinger said.

Ischinger has deep experience in getting warring parties to talk, having been a German negotiator during the Balkans wars, working alongside the likes of America’s Richard Holbrooke in the 1990s. But he doesn’t underplay the importance of negotiating from a position of strength.

"We need to remind ourselves that Russia, because of its history, because of its own experience and because of its cultural behavior, it doesn’t respect concessions or weakness; but Russians do respect strength,” he said.

‘Clear evidence’ China supplied weapons to Russia for Ukraine war

Western officials believe they have evidence that Chinese companies have secretly supplied weapons to Russia in what could amount to a significant escalation of Beijing’s involvement in the Ukraine war. The Times reports.

A new report obtained by allies points to a Chinese company sending a range of purpose-built military drones to Russia for testing, with the ultimate destination being Ukraine, The Times understands.

The deal occurred last year, according to a western official, who was unable to disclose the name of the company. However, they said there was “clear evidence now that Chinese companies are supplying Russia with deadly weapons for use in Ukraine”.

“While the Chinese government might not admit it, they are going to struggle to keep their increasing support under wraps,” added the official, appearing to accuse Beijing of being involved or aware of the delivery.

They also confirmed a Reuters report from earlier in the week that Russia is believed to have established a weapons programme in China to develop and produce long-range attack drones for use in the war against Ukraine.

Nato responded to both reports, saying the information provided to The Times and Reuters was “deeply concerning and allies are consulting on this matter”.

“China has become a decisive enabler of Russia’s war in Ukraine through its provision of dual-use technologies to sustain Russia’s defence industry. The Chinese government has a responsibility to ensure its companies are not providing lethal assistance to Russia. China cannot continue to fuel the largest conflict in Europe since the Second World War without this impacting its interests and reputation,” a spokeswoman added.

MILITARY & TECH