THE RUSSO-UKRAINE WAR BRIEF
For: 2024-10-10
Slava Ukraini! In early 2022 I began a Telegram channel aggregating news from a number of sources daily on the war in Ukraine. In June 2023 I began providing a daily draft for the Ukraine War Brief Podcast collecting news from over 70 sources daily, much of which formed the basis of the script. While the Podcast no longer exists I have continued to make this Brief available both on my own Substack and The People’s Media for those who wish to keep up with events on a daily basis.
All the latest news on the Russo-Ukraine War 6 days per week
ALONG THE CONTACT LINE
GSAFU Morning Report
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in its Operational Information update at 22:00 on Oct 9 stated that day 960 of the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation against Ukraine was about to begin.
During the past day, 119 combat engagements took place. Over the past 24 hours, the enemy carried out 1 missile strike, 58 air strikes, 694 drone strikes and more than 3,324 artillery strikes across the positions of Ukrainian forces.
At the same time, Ukrainian soldiers continue to inflict losses in manpower and equipment on the occupying troops, exhausting the enemy along the entire front line and continue to disrupt the plans of Russian occupiers to advance deep into the territory of Ukraine.
Air Force Daily Report
On the night of October 10, 2024 (from 7:00 p.m. 09/10 to 10:00 a.m. 10/10), the Russian invaders attacked Ukraine with attack UAVs and missiles of various types.
In total, the radio engineering troops of the Air Force detected and escorted more than fifty means of air attack of the enemy:
- 2 Iskander-M ballistic missiles (launch area - TOT of Crimea);
- 1 Kh-31P guided air missile (from Crimean airspace);
- 2 guided air missiles Kh-59/69 (from the airspace of Crimea);
- 3 S-300 anti-aircraft guided missiles (from occupied Donetsk region);
- 62 strike UAVs (launch areas - Primorsko-Akhtarsk, Kursk - Russian Federation).
The air attack was repulsed by aviation, anti-aircraft missile forces, electronic warfare units and mobile fire groups of the Air Force and the Defense Forces of Ukraine.
As a result of anti-aircraft combat, 41 enemy UAVs were shot down in the Mykolaiv, Odesa, Kherson, Kyiv, Cherkasy, Dnipropetrovsk, Sumy, Poltava, Zaporizhzhya and Donetsk regions.
14 enemy drones were lost in location in different regions of Ukraine, presumably as a result of active anti-aircraft missile defense. The information is being clarified.
As of 11:00 a.m., combat work continues! Several UAVs (presumably attack) are in the airspace of Ukraine. There is also a lot of reconnaissance drone activity in the north and south.
As a result of the Russian strike, civilian objects and objects of critical infrastructure in Odesa, Poltava and Donetsk regions were hit by missiles and attack UAVs.
The Russian Border Incursion
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a US based think tank, in its Oct 9 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment assessed that Ukrainian and Russian forces continued assaults in Glushkovsky Raion west of the main Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast on Oct 7, 8, and 9 but did not make any confirmed advances. Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces conducted ground attacks near Veseloye (south of Glushkovo). Russian sources, including the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD), claimed that Russian forces conducted offensive operations near Novy Put on October 9.[27] Elements of the Russian 83rd Airborne (VDV) Brigade and 56th VDV Regiment (7th VDV Division) reportedly continue operating in Glushkovsky Raion.
Ukrainian forces continued attacks in the main Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast on Oct 7, 8, and 9. Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces continued ground attacks east of Korenevo near Olgovka; southeast of Korenevo near Lyubimovka and Plekhovo; and northeast of Sudzha near Russkoye Porechnoye, Cherkasskoye Porechnoye, and Marynovka on Oct 7, 8, and 9.
Russian forces reportedly recently advanced in the main Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast amid continued fighting in the area on Oct 7, 8, and 9. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed on October 9 that Russian forces seized Novaya Sorochina (north of Sudzha) and Pokrovsky (southeast of Korenevo). Russian milbloggers also claimed that elements of the Russian 106th VDV Division have seized over half of Lyubimovka. ISW has not observed visual confirmation of these claims, however. Russian forces reportedly attacked near Daryino (southeast of Korenevo), Lyubimovka, and Plekhovo.
The Khortytsia operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the northeastern part of Ukraine. )
Kharkiv Sector: Over the last day Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 4 Russian attacks near Vovchansk and Tykhe.
Kupyansk Sector: Russian Forces carried out 17 offensive actions against Ukrainian defensive positions near Petropavlivka, Kucherivka, Stepova Novoselivka, Novoosynove, Kruhlyakivka, Vyshneve and Zelenyi Hai. 5 engagements continue.
Lyman Sector: Russian Forces carried out 18 offensive actions against Ukrainian defensive positions near Hrekivka, Andriivka, Makiivka, Katerynivka, Nevske and Torske. 2 engagements are ongoing.
Siversk Sector: There has been no significant change in the combat environment in the last 24 hours.
Kramatorsk Sector: Russian forces carried out 7 offensive actions near Minkivka, Orikhovo-Vasylivka, Chasiv Yar, Stupochky and Bila Hora. The situation is under control.
Toretsk Sector: Russian forces carried out 11 offensive actions with air support near Dyliivka, Toretsk, Shcherbynivka and Nelipivka.
The Tavria operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the central-eastern and southeastern part of Ukraine.)
Pokrovsk Sector : The main efforts of the enemy over the last day focused in this direction. Russian forces conducted 25 attacks against Ukrainian defences in the vicinity of Suha Balka, Novotoretske, Promin, Krutnyi Yar, Sukhyi Yar, Lysivka Novohrodivka and Selydove. 2 engagements are ongoing.
Kurakhove Sector: The most combat clashes took place in this sector over the previous day. Russian forces conducted 31 attacks against Ukrainian defences in the vicinity of Tsukuryne, Novoselydivka, Hirnyk, Kurakhivka, Hostre, Heorhiivka, Konstantinivka and Antonivka. 3 engagements continue.
Vremivka Sector: Russian forces made 6 assaults against Ukrainian positions near Bohoyavlenka.
Orikhiv Sector: There has been no significant change in the combat environment in the last 24 hours.
The Odesa operational-strategic group
(Responsible for Kherson, Qırım, (also known as Crimea) and the Black Sea.)
Prydniprovsk Sector: In this sector, over the last day, Russian forces made 4 unsuccessful attempts to force Ukrainian units from their positions on the left bank of the Dnipro.
TEMPORARILY OCCUPIED TERRITORIES
Nothing major to report.
THE HOME FRONT
81% of Ukrainians Believe Ukraine Can Prevail in War With Proper Support from Allies
The absolute majority of Ukrainians, 81%, believe that Ukraine is capable of achieving success on the battlefield if the West adequately supports it. The Kyiv Post reports.
This is evidenced by a survey conducted by Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) from September 20 to October 3, 2024.
"Ukrainians are fully aware of the importance of Western support for the ability to effectively repel Russian aggression. At the same time, from the very outset of the full-scale invasion, Ukrainians viewed it as a joint confrontation between Ukraine’s and the West against the aggressor state Russia," the survey reads.
In September 2022, 80% of Ukrainians considered the successes of the Ukrainian Army as a joint achievement of Ukraine and the West. In the same survey, 73% expressed confidence that the West wants Ukraine to end the war on terms acceptable to Kyiv. In February 2023, 81% of Ukrainians believed that cooperation between Ukraine and the West to repel Russian aggression is a "win-win" situation, where both Ukraine and the West would benefit.
Currently, the absolute majority of Ukrainians, 81%, believe Ukraine is capable of achieving success on the battlefield given the West continues to provide adequate support. There are 14% believing Russia is way too strong a power (in December 2023 it was 7%). Another 6% of respondents could not make up their mind on the issue.
In all regions, the majority – from 67% in Eastern Ukraine to 87% in the West – believe Ukraine is capable of prevailing in the war with Russia.
At the same time, between December 2023 and September 2024, in all regions, except Western Ukraine, there were fewer respondents who believe in the possibility of Ukraine’s success. In particular, the greatest decrease can be seen in the East, where in December 2023, 79% believed in the possibility of success, and now it’s 67% (at the same time, in the East, 24% believe Russia is too strong).
In September 2022, only 15% of Ukrainians shared the narrative that the West is weary of Ukraine and seeks peace that would be unfair for Ukraine. Instead, 73% believed that the West wants the war to end on terms acceptable to Kyiv. During 2023, critical sentiments started growing, and in December 2023 30% believed in Western war fatigue. By February 2024, that share increased to 44%.
Between February and September 2024, the share of those who believe that the West is weary of Ukraine decreased to 38%. At the same time, currently 54% of Ukrainians believe the West seeks an end to the war that would be acceptable for Ukraine.
The Omnibus survey involved computer-assisted telephone interviews, CATI, based on a random sample of mobile phone numbers in all regions of Ukraine. A total of 989 adult respondents were polled across government-controlled regions.
As reported by Ukrinform, a KIIS survey showed the absolute majority of Ukrainians (79%) would remain in Ukraine even if they obtained US citizenship or that of EU member states.
Antonov’s latest military transport aircraft touches down in Poland
Ukraine’s An-178-100R prototype departed from Ukraine and landed at Poland’s Bydgoszcz Airport on 9 October. Zbiam reported.
According to the Polish airport’s press service, the aircraft arrived at Bydgoszcz Ignacy Jan Paderewski Airport on 9 October. The An-178-100R prototype’s flight originated from Ukraine, but the transponder that allows tracking the flight was turned on only over Poland, Militarnyi notes. At the Polish airport, the AN-178-100R will join another Ukrainian aircraft by the Antonov State Enterprise.
The AN-178-100R No. 001 was designed for conducting flight and certification tests for this type of aircraft. In December 2021, the aircraft completed the import substitution of Russian components, with equipment from domestic and Western suppliers installed.
Designed to transport up to 100 personnel, equipment, and cargo, the AN-178-100R can deliver weapons and light military equipment by landing and parachuting, as well as carry out medical evacuation of the wounded and injured.
The Antonov State Enterprise received a state order for three AN-178 aircraft for the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine on 29 December 2020. Production of these military transport aircraft began in January 2021.
Initially, the first production AN-178 was scheduled to be delivered to the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine in the spring of 2023. However, the full-scale war has affected the work of the Ukrainian aircraft manufacturer.
Ukraine's parliament allows foreigners to serve in officer positions in Armed Forces
The Verkhovna Rada (Ukrainian Parliament) has adopted a draft law allowing foreign nationals and stateless persons to serve in the Armed Forces under contract in officer positions. Ukrainska Pravda reports citing Yaroslav Zhelezniak, Ukrainian MP.
A total of 276 MPs voted in favour of Draft Law №12023, titled On Amendments to Certain Laws of Ukraine Regarding the Procedure for Military Service Under Contract by Foreigners and Stateless Persons in the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the State Special Transport Service, and the National Guard of Ukraine.
"Over the 2.5 years of war against Russian aggression, we have seen many foreigners join Ukraine’s defence forces, proving their ability to effectively carry out complex tasks on the battlefield.
Today, the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine adopted an important law developed by the Defence Ministry, which paves the way for an increase in the number of foreigners serving under contract in officer positions within the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the State Special Transport Service, and the National Guard."
Umierov reminded that previously they could only serve in rank-and-file and sergeant positions, "but the new law strengthens the personnel potential of our military."
The explanatory note to the draft law states that the need to improve the legislation arose due to the complex operational situation along the frontline, which requires a significant increase in the number of combat personnel in the Armed Forces of Ukraine and other military formations.
In particular, this involves conducting additional mobilisation measures and encouraging all willing individuals with relevant military specialities and combat experience to voluntarily enlist for military service under contract, including foreigners and stateless persons.
RUSSIAN WORLD
Ukrainian defense forces attack Khanskaya military airfield in Adygea, Russia
On the night of October 10, unmanned aerial vehicles attacked the Russian Khanskaya military airfield, located near the village of Khanskaya near Maykop
The Ukrainian Armed Forces General Staff reports that an ammunition depot located on a military facility came under attack. According to the military, Russian air defense systems were active in the vicinity of the target.
Su-34 and Su-27 aircraft were reportedly stationed at the airfield, though more detailed information on the extent of the damage is still being clarified.
"The task was carried out by the forces and means of the Security Service of Ukraine, the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine, and the Special Operations Forces of the Ukrainian Armed Forces," the statement said.
Earlier, the Russian Ministry of Defense reported that its air defense forces destroyed or intercepted 47 drones over Krasnodar Territory, 12 over Kursk region, 9 over Rostov region, 4 over Bryansk region, 2 each over Belgorod region and Crimea, 1 over Voronezh region, and 15 over the Sea of Azov.
The Russian Telegram channel Astra reported explosions near a military airfield, with local residents confirming the blasts. The channel also cited NASA's fire monitoring system, which recorded a fire near the airfield.
Kadyrov claims group of Russian lawmakers are plotting his assassination.
Chechen warlord Ramzan Kadyrov accused three Russian lawmakers of plotting to kill him in a video posted on his Telegram account on Oct. 9 and warned he would call for a "blood feud" if they did not prove their innocence. The Kyiv Independent reports.
"There are witnesses, there are people from whom they tried to commission, whom they asked how much they would take for the order," Kadyrov said in Chechen to other officials from the North Caucasian republic.
Kadyrov named three lawmakers, Bekhan Barakhoyev, Suleiman Kerimov, and Rizvan Kurbanov, from neighbouring Dagestan and Ingushetia, as potentially being behind the plot.
The accusation was in relation to a violent incident in September at the Moscow headquarters of Wildberries, Russia's largest online retailer, in which two people were killed and several others were arrested.
Wildberries' press service said that the fight broke out when Vladislav Bakalchuk, the estranged husband of the company's founder Tatiana Kim (formerly Bakalchuk), tried to "illegally" enter the building with his security guards.
Kim said that Bakalchuk had attempted to seize the offices together with another co-founder, Sergey Anufriev, and former chairman of the board of directors, Vladimir Bakin, Russian independent media outlet Meduza reported.
Several of those involved, including the two who were killed in the incident, come from the North Caucasus. Kadyrov has previously said that he supports Vladislav Bakalchuk's effort to stop the planned merger of Wildberries with another company.
Kadyrov's comments were his first public statements since the business dispute turned deadly.
NEWS WORLDWIDE
Zelenskyy discusses long-range missile use with Britain, NATO during London visit.
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy held talks with NATO chief Mark Rutte and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer on Thursday where they discussed his proposed "victory plan" and whether Ukraine could use Western missiles against targets in Russia. Reuters reports.
Starmer and Zelenskyy have both said the war with Russia is at a critical point, and the Ukrainian leader is keen for the West to give further support to try to change the balance on the battlefield.
Zelenskyy has pushed for the United States and Britain to let it use long-range missiles donated by its allies inside Russian territory, something Rutte said had come up at the meeting.
"We discussed it today, but in the end it is up to the individual allies," Rutte told reporters in Downing Street after the talks.
Starmer's spokesperson said that there was an "ongoing discussion between the UK, Ukraine and international partners about how we help Ukraine heading into the winter."
"We obviously want to put Ukraine in the strongest position. But no war has ever been won by a single weapon. And on Storm Shadow (missiles) specifically, there has been no change to the UK government's position on the use of long range missiles," the spokesperson said.
Russia has previously said it would respond if Western countries allowed Ukraine to strike Russia with their missiles. President Vladimir Putin said last month that such a decision would mean NATO countries directly fighting with Russia and that "the very essence of this conflict will be changed".
MILITARY & TECH
US General: US is withholding weapons systems that could assist Ukraines war efforts.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a US based think tank, in its Oct 9 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment assessed that US European Command (EUCOM) Commander and NATO Supreme Allied Commander Europe (SACEUR) General Christopher Cavoli reportedly stated that the US is withholding several US weapon systems and other military communications networks from Ukraine that could support Ukraine's war effort. CNN reported on Oct 8, citing sources familiar with the situation, that Cavoli outlined a list of several US capabilities that could better support Ukraine's war effort in a September 2024 report to the US Congress.
Another source familiar with the matter told CNN that that the list included the air-launched Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile (JASSMs) cruise missile and the Link 16 system – a data sharing network that the US and other NATO countries use for communication and command and control (C2). CNN reported that Cavoli's report does not explain why the US has not yet provided Ukraine with systems that the US assesses could aid Ukraine's war effort. An unspecified source told CNN that the US has likely refrained from providing Ukraine with the Link 16 system over operational security concerns.
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