THE RUSSO-UKRAINE WAR BRIEF
For: 2024-10-01
Slava Ukraini! In early 2022 I began a Telegram channel aggregating news from a number of sources daily on the war in Ukraine. In June 2023 I began providing a daily draft for the Ukraine War Brief Podcast collecting news from over 70 sources daily, much of which formed the basis of the script. While the Podcast no longer exists I have continued to make this Brief available both on my own Substack and The People’s Media for those who wish to keep up with events on a daily basis.
All the latest news on the Russo-Ukraine War 6 days per week
ALONG THE CONTACT LINE
GSAFU Morning Report
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in its Operational Information update at 22:00 on Sep 30 stated that day 951 of the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation against Ukraine was about to begin.
During the past day, 159 combat engagements took place. Over the past 24 hours, the enemy carried out 4 missile strikes, 58 air strikes, 635 drone strikes and more than 3,400 artillery strikes across the positions of Ukrainian forces.
At the same time, Ukrainian soldiers continue to inflict losses in manpower and equipment on the occupying troops, exhausting the enemy along the entire front line and continue to disrupt the plans of Russian occupiers to advance deep into the territory of Ukraine.
Air Force Daily Report
On the night of October 1, 2024, the enemy attacked Ukraine with 32 attack UAVs of the "Shahed" type (launch areas: Primorsko-Akhtarsk, Kursk - Russian Federation, Chauda - Crimea).
As a result of anti-aircraft combat, 29 attack UAVs were shot down by the aviation, MVG, and EDF of the Defense Forces of Ukraine in the Cherkasy, Kirovohrad, Mykolaiv, Kherson, Poltava, Sumy, and Dnipropetrovsk regions. As a result of countermeasures by EW, three enemy drones were lost in location, previously without consequences.
Air defense of the Ground Forces over the past week destroyed 229 enemy air reconnaissance and attack equipment, namely:
🔸 Unmanned aerial vehicle Shahed-131/136 — 143 units;
🔸BpLA Orlan 10/30 — 15 units;
🔸BpLA Zala — 37 units;
🔸Supercam UAV — 23 units;
🔸BpLA "Lancet" — 4 units;
🔸 Unmanned aerial vehicle "Merlin" — 2 units;
🔸BpLA "Molniya" — 1 unit;
🔸Unestablished - 4 units.
The Russian Border Incursion
Ukraine advances in western Kursk.
Russian forces recently advanced west of the Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast in Gluskovsky Raion amid continued Ukrainian offensive operations in the area on Sep 29 and 30. Geolocated footage published on Sep 24 indicates that Russian forces recently advanced in the fields southeast of Veseloye (southwest of Glushkovo). The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that Ukrainian forces unsuccessfully attacked on the international border near Novy Put (southwest of Glushkovo), and Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces attacked near Veseloye and Medvezhye (southeast of Glushkovo). Elements of the Russian 56th Airborne (VDV) Regiment (7th VDV Division) are continuing to repel Ukrainian attacks near Veseloye and towards Glushkovo.
Ukrainian forces recently advanced on the western edge of the Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast near Korenevo amid continued offensive operations on Sep 29 and 30. Geolocated footage published on Sep 29 shows elements of the Russian 56th VDV Regiment targeting Ukrainian forces southeast of Korenevo, indicating that Ukrainian forces recently marginally advanced in the area. Russian sources, including the Russian MoD, claimed that Russian forces repelled Ukrainian attacks southeast of Korenevo near Lyubimovka; east of Korenevo near Olgovka and Kremyanoye; north of Sudzha near Kamyshevka; and southeast of Sudzha near Plekhovo.
Russian forces recently made confirmed advances southeast of Sudzha near Plekhovo amid continued Russian counterattacks within the Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast. Geolocated footage published on Sep 29 shows Ukrainian forces attempting to repel a Russian platoon-sized mechanized assault south of Plekhovo, indicating that Russian forces recently advanced in this area.
Forbes‘ analysis of the geolocated footage stated that the Russian mechanized column — possibly composed of elements of the Russian 15th ”Pyatnashka” Intenational Volunteer Brigade — got stuck in Russian anti-tank traps set prior to the Ukrainian Kursk Oblast incursion near Plekhovo, allowing Ukrainian forces to strike the Russian column outside of the settlement.
Russian sources also claimed that Russian forces seized Obukhovka (southeast of Korenevo) and advanced 800 meters north of Uspenovka (southeast of Korenevo on the international border), although ISW has not observed visual evidence confirming that Russian forces seized the entirety of Obukhovka. The Russian MoD also claimed that Russian naval infantry elements of the Russian Northern Grouping of Forces, likely referring to 155th Naval Infantry Brigade (Pacific Fleet, Eastern Military District [EMD]), seized "long-term fortified positions" in an unspecified part of Kursk Oblast. The Russian ”Smuglyanka” Detachment is reportedly operating near Kremyanoye.
The Khortytsia operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the northeastern part of Ukraine. )
Kharkiv Sector: Over the last day Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 16 Russian attacks near Starysya, Buhruvatka, Vovchansk and Tykhe. 4 engagements are still underway.
Tactically important victory for Ukraine in Kharkiv
The UK Ministry of Defence in their Oct 1 Intelligence Update on Ukraine stated that in late September 2024, Ukrainian forces recaptured and cleared the Volchansky chemical plant in Vovchansk, Kharkiv oblast. The chemical plant acted as a Russian stronghold, enabling tactical operations on the Vovcha River. Its loss will likely limit opportunities for Russian Ground Forces (RGF) to advance in Kharkiv oblast. It is likely that Ukrainian control of the plant will facilitate further counter offensives in the north of the city to push the RGF back towards the Ukraine-Russia border.
Vovchansk has been contested since May 2024, when the RGF began an offensive operation in the Kharkiv oblast, likely to create a ‘buffer zone’ to deter and mitigate against any Ukrainian attacks in the Belgorod area. This led to Vovchansk (5km south of the Ukraine-Russia border) being a heavily contested city with both sides striving to push the other out of the area.
Russia has drawn forces away from Vovchansk area to support operations in Kursk region, where Ukraine has occupied a salient of russian territory since August 2024. This has almost certainly reduced the RGF capabilities in Vovchansk area.
Kupyansk Sector: Russian Forces carried out 23 unsuccessful offensive actions against Ukrainian defensive positions near Synkivka, Novoosynove, Hlushkivka, Kruhlyakivka, Stelmahivka, Andiivka and Vyshneve. 7 engagements continue.
Lyman Sector: Russian Forces carried out 24 offensive actions against Ukrainian defensive positions near Hrekivka, Makiivka, Nevske, Novosadove, Dibrova, Serebryanka and Bilhorivka. 4 engagements continue.
Siversk Sector: Russian forces tried to break through our defense in the areas of the settlements of Verkhnyokamianske and Vyimka 3 times during the day.
Kramatorsk Sector: Russian forces carried out 3 offensive actions near Chasiv Yar over the last day.
Toretsk Sector: Russian forces carried out 11 offensive actions with air support near Toretsk, Zalizne, Shcherbynivka and Nelipivka. 4 engagements continue.
The Tavria operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the central-eastern and southeastern part of Ukraine.)
Pokrovsk Sector : Russian forces conducted 28 attacks against Ukrainian defences in this area over the last day in the vicinity of Suha Balka, Vozdvizhenka, Novotoretske, Mirolyubivka, Mykolaivka, Lisivka, Novohrodivka, Selydove and Mykhailivka
Kurakhove Sector: The enemy, supported by aviation, made 24 assaults on Ukrainian positions near Tsukuryne, Heorhiivka, Katerynivka and Konstantinivka. 7 engagements continue.
Vremivka Sector: Russian forces made 8 assaults against Ukrainian positions near Zolota Nyva, Bohoyavlenka and Vuhledar. 2 engagements continue.
Orikhiv Sector: There has been no significant change in the combat environment in the last 24 hours.
The Odesa operational-strategic group
(Responsible for Kherson, Qırım, (also known as Crimea) and the Black Sea.)
Prydniprovsk Sector: There has been no significant change in the combat environment in the last 24 hours.
TEMPORARILY OCCUPIED TERRITORIES
ZNPP Faces Blackout After Russian Attack
A Russian attack on a critical substation has severed one of the main power lines supplying the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, leaving the facility on the verge of another blackout. This recent strike intensifies concerns about the safety of the plant, which has been under Russian control since the early stages of the conflict. Defense Express reports.
Ukraine’s Energy Minister, Herman Halushchenko, condemned the attack, describing it as “another act of russian terrorism”, and emphasized the increasing risk of an accident at the plant. Herman Halushchenko called for the immediate enforcement of the International Atomic Energy Agency resolution, demanding the return of the ZNPP to Ukrainian control.
“The safe operation of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant is only possible under Ukrainian control,” he stated.
Ukrainian energy workers are racing to repair the damage caused by the shelling, striving to restore full power to the plant and prevent a potential disaster. The situation remains critical, highlighting the ongoing danger posed by the conflict to essential infrastructure in the region.
THE HOME FRONT
Russia strikes market in central Kherson: six civilians killed, six injured
The Russian army launched an attack on Kherson downtown, killing six, and injuring six other civilians there, local governor Oleksandr Prokudin reported on Telegram on Oct. 1. New Voice reports.
Prosecutor General Office updated initial reports indicating seven people killed in the strike at 11 a.m. EET, after the doctors managed to return to life the seventh victim. "He was stabilized but remains in critical condition," the agency wrote.
Six civilians are reported to have been injured, five of whom have been hospitalized with varying degrees of severity.
The Russian forces attacked a market in the center of Kherson, hitting commercial stalls, Prokudin wrote at 10 a.m. He initially reported that five people were killed and three were injured.
Kherson comes under constant Russian shellings.
The death toll of State Emergency Services rescuers continues to rise
Since the beginning of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, 99 rescuers of the State Emergency Service have been killed, and four are in enemy captivity. This was announced by the Deputy Head of the State Emergency Service of Ukraine Volodymyr Demchuk during a telethon, a correspondent of UNN reports.
"Today we have 99 of our rescuers killed by Russia and 404 rescuers wounded. Today, four rescuers are in captivity and one is missing," said Demchuk.
KNDS opens a subsidiary in Ukraine
The French-German defense giant KNDS has started operations in Ukraine and opened a local representative office in Kyiv. This news was published on the company’s website. Militarnyi reports.
KNDS has opened KNDS Ukraine LLC, a subsidiary in Kyiv that will support cooperation with Ukrainian government agencies and defense companies.
Its creation results from a joint French-German government initiative presented by the Minister of the Armed Forces Sébastien Lecornu and his counterpart Boris Pistorius in Berlin in March this year.
Among other things, the company will help the Ukrainian industry to more efficiently carry out maintenance, repair, and overhaul of the company’s weapons. These include Leopard 1 and Leopard 2 tanks, CAESAR and PzH 2000 artillery systems, and AMX 10RC armored vehicles.
In addition, KNDS and the Ukrainian industry also intend to produce 155mm artillery ammunition and spare parts jointly in Ukraine.
The company noted that Ukraine is using or has contracted nearly 800 weapons and ammunition produced by the French-German company on the front line, making it one of the most important industrial partners.
Supporting the repair capabilities of the Ukrainian defense industry means prioritizing the production of parts that break down frequently in Ukraine. This way, the company wants to simplify logistical issues during the repair and maintenance of the relevant equipment and speed up its return to the battlefield.
In the future, the subsidiary will also potentially be able to produce complete systems from scratch at its facilities.
In late March, Militarny reported that KNDS was to send Ukrainian personnel to France for training this year.
According to a representative of the French company NEXTER, the possibility of sending company representatives to Ukraine has also not been ruled out.
RUSSIAN WORLD
The Russian army plans to recruit 20,000 criminal defendants
Russia’s Defense Ministry plans to enlist around 20,000 people currently held in pre-trial detention to fight in Ukraine, the investigative news outlet IStories reported Tuesday, citing anonymous military and legal sources. The Moscow Times reports.
According to a military official who spoke to IStories, efforts are already underway to identify who among the thousands of defendants awaiting trial might be fit for military service, with “40% expected to be taken.”
The enlistment plan reportedly involves selecting 100 defendants from each of Russia’s 210 pre-trial detention centers. IStories, citing federal prison statistics, noted that 106,000 people were held in pre-trial detention as of early 2024, though that figure includes individuals under investigation and convicted criminals.
The reported plan comes a week after federal lawmakers passed legislation allowing criminal defendants to serve in the military, closing a loophole that previously limited enlistment to convicted criminals and suspects under police investigation. Those changes now face a single vote in the Federation Council, after which President Vladimir Putin is expected to sign it into law.
Sources told IStories that authorities are targeting criminal defendants to avoid sparking public unrest with a new wave of mobilization. A source close to the military’s General Staff said the Defense Ministry turned to criminal defendants after running out of convicted prisoners willing to volunteer for the war in Ukraine.
NEWS WORLDWIDE
New NATO head Mark Rutte says Ukraine’s victory remains a key priority.
Supporting Ukraine and ensuring conditions for its victory will remain a key priority for the new NATO Secretary General, along with strengthening transatlantic ties and global partnerships in addressing security issues. Ukrinform reports.
The new NATO Secretary General, Mark Rutte, stated this on Tuesday during the ceremony of transferring leadership of the Alliance while addressing the press alongside former Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg.
“You’ve already mentioned the priorities you’ve been working on and these priorities we’ll take forward in the future. Ukraine. We have to make sure that Ukraine prevails as a sovereign, independent, democratic nation. Of course, our deterrence and defense. We have to spend more, we have to increase our collective defense, and you [Stoltenberg] have achieved so much to this end. And then of course, above all, building all those alliances all around the Globe – NATO’s partnerships, and they have to go wider, and deeper, given all the insecurities in the world,” Rutte said when asked about key priorities of the Alliance.
He noted that his predecessor, Jens Stoltenberg, led the Alliance during times of great turbulence, and thanks to his efforts, NATO is now larger, stronger, and more united than ever.
“It is for me a great honor to follow you as Secretary General. We both believe that strong transatlantic bond is the foundation of our Alliance, and I assure you that I will do my utmost to assure that it will stay rock solid,” the new NATO leader said, addressing Stoltenberg.
When asked by journalists how the upcoming U.S. presidential elections might affect NATO and its support for Ukraine, Rutte remarked that he is well-acquainted with both candidates and hopes to establish constructive relations with the new administration, regardless of who leads it.
“I know both candidates very well. I worked for four years with Donald Trump. He was pushing us to spend more, and he achieved it – at the moment we are at a much higher spending level. He was also pushing us off China, and he was right. Of course, Kamala Harris has a fantastic record as Vice President, she is a highly respected figure. So, I hope, I will be able to work with both,” Rutte added.
As reported earlier, NATO emphasized that it will continue to provide strong support to Ukraine on its path to membership in the Alliance.
On October 1, the NATO headquarters in Brussels held a ceremony to transfer powers from NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg to the new head of the Alliance, former Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte.
PACE passes resolution on propaganda in Europe with Ukrainian amendments
On Tuesday, October 1, the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe adopted the resolution "Propaganda and Freedom of Information in Europe" by a majority vote. Ukrinform reports.
The Assembly recognizes that for authoritarian regimes such as the Russian Federation, propaganda is an integral part of their war against democracy. The document points to the need for an effective and coordinated fight against malign propaganda, calls on governments to develop comprehensive strategies that protect freedom of expression and freedom of information.
The resolution also emphasizes the recognition of the Russian Orthodox Church as the Kremlin’s propaganda mouthpiece and calls for countries to extend personal sanctions against Russian propagandists.
"It was very important for us that the PACE react and note in this document how widely the Kremlin engages religious institutions in spreading its propaganda, and emphasize the role of the Russian church as a powerful instrument of influence," Ukrainian MP Oleksiy Honcharenko said.
According to the lawmaker, it is also necessary to draw the attention of CoE member countries and partner states to the importance of expanding targeted sanctions against the Russian propaganda machine in the form of Russian media outlets and affiliated individuals. This includes personal sanctions.
According to the lawmaker, it is also necessary to draw the attention of CoE member countries and partner states to the importance of expanding targeted sanctions against the Russian propaganda machine in the form of Russian media outlets and affiliated individuals. This includes personal sanctions.
Poland to push for complete end to Russian energy imports during EU presidency
Poland plans to prioritize the complete cessation of Russian energy imports to Europe during its EU presidency in the first half of 2025, Krzysztof Bolesta, State Secretary of the Ministry of Climate and Environment of Poland, said on Oct. 1. New Voice reports.
"We have already covered 80% of the way to abandoning Russian fossil energy carriers, but the last 20% is extremely difficult," said the Polish official.
Some EU countries find it challenging to give up Russian supplies because it is their only source of natural gas imports. Therefore, European partners must act in solidarity and jointly help these countries eliminate their dependence on Russia, Bolesta added.
"During Poland's presidency in the European Union, we want to complete this task and achieve the goal stated in the EU's program documents — to completely stop the supply of Russian energy carriers to Europe," he stated.
In 2021, the share of Russian gas in European imports was 45%. However, by 2022, this figure had decreased to 24%, and in 2023, it fell to 15%, according to EU data.
Part of this reduction was compensated for by increased imports of liquefied natural gas from the United States and pipeline gas from Norway, which has become the main supplier for Europe instead of Russia.
Gas demand decreased by 13.3% in 2022, and it decreased by an additional 7.4% in 2023, according to Eurostat data. All sectors, including residential, industrial, and energy, have reduced their gas consumption.
MILITARY & TECH
US orders new GBU-39 bombs for Ukraine
The United States has ordered new batches of GBU-39/B small diameter bombs for its Air Force and foreign customers. Ukraine is among the countries that will receive these precision-guided munitions. Militarnyi reports.
On September 30, the U.S. Department of Defense announced the signing of a multi-year contract with Boeing.
The contract, with a maximum possible value of $6.9 billion, covers the production and delivery of an unspecified number of GBU-39/B small diameter bombs until approximately December 31, 2035. This agreement provides for the supply of such bombs to Japan, Bulgaria, and Ukraine as part of Foreign Military Sales (FMS).
Back in May, it was reported that the Ukrainian Air Force adapted Soviet-era combat aircraft to use American GBU-39 bombs. As of August the Ukrainian Air Force fielded its first batch of F-16 fighters.
GBU-39/B Small Diameter Bomb (SDB) is an American light high-precision aircraft bomb that weighs 130 kilograms and has a diameter of about 190 mm and a length of about 1.8 m. The maximum range is up to 110 km, provided that it is dropped from a high altitude.
The bomb’s wings are released in flight, significantly increasing its range. When diving at a target from a high altitude, the tungsten tip can penetrate concrete shelters.
The firing system allows one to select an air burst before dropping and a delayed burst after impact.
The accuracy of the hit is achieved with the help of an onboard control system with an inertial system and GPS.
According to The Washington Post, these bombs have proven to be resistant to interference from Russian electronic warfare systems. Their small size also makes them difficult for Russian air defense systems to detect and intercept.
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