THE RUSSO-UKRAINE WAR BRIEF
For: 25-01-04
Slava Ukraini! In early 2022 I began a Telegram channel aggregating news from a number of sources daily on the war in Ukraine. In June 2023 I began providing a daily draft for the Ukraine War Brief Podcast collecting news from over 70 sources daily, which formed the basis of the script. While the Podcast no longer exists I have continued to make this Brief available for my followers here on Substack for those who wish to keep up with the news from the war.
All the latest news on the Russo-Ukraine War 6 days per week
ALONG THE CONTACT LINE
GSAFU Morning Report
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in its Operational Information update at 08:00 on Jan 04 stated that day 1046 of the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation against Ukraine had begun.
During the past day, 148 combat engagements took place. Over the past 24 hours, the enemy carried out 4 missile strikes, 64 air strikes, used 2,257 drones and almost 5,000 artillery strikes across the positions of Ukrainian forces and civilians.
At the same time, Ukrainian soldiers continue to inflict losses in manpower and equipment on the occupying troops, exhausting the enemy along the entire front line and continue to disrupt the plans of Russian occupiers to advance deeper into the territory of Ukraine.
Air Force Daily Report
3 MISSILES AND 13 ENEMY UAVS SHOT, 19 DRONES LOST IN LOCATION (WITHOUT CONSEQUENCES)
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During the previous day (from 12:00 on Jan 3), the enemy launched strikes with missiles of various types: 5 S-300 anti-aircraft guided missiles on the Kursk region, 3 Iskander-M ballistic missiles on the Chernihiv region, three Kh-59/69 guided aircraft missiles on the Dnipropetrovsk region. It also attacked with 32 Shahed strike UAVs and simulator drones of various types from the north-east direction.
As of 8:00 p.m., three Kh-59/69 guided aircraft missiles and 13 enemy UAVs were shot down, and 19 enemy drone simulators were lost in location (without negative consequences).
34 ENEMY UAVS SHOT, 47 DRONES FAILED TO REACH THEIR TARGETS (LOCATIONALLY LOST)
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On the night of Jan 4, 2025 (from 19:00 on Jan 3), the enemy attacked with the 81st strike UAV of the “Shahed” type and simulator drones of various types from the directions of Bryansk, Kursk, Orel, Primorsko-Akhtarsk - the Russian Federation.
The air attack was repelled by aviation, anti-aircraft missile troops, electronic warfare units, and mobile fire groups of the Air Force and Defense Forces of Ukraine.
As of 09:00, it was confirmed that 34 Shahed attack UAVs and drones of other types were shot down in Poltava, Sumy, Kharkiv, Kyiv, Chernihiv, Cherkasy, Kirovohrad, Dnipropetrovsk, Odessa and Mykolaiv regions.
Due to the active countermeasures of the Defense Forces, 47 enemy drones-simulators were lost in location (without negative consequences). However, the downed UAVs caused damage in the Chernihiv and Sumy regions - private houses were damaged. Assistance is being provided to the injured.
The Russian Border Incursion
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a US based think tank, in its -- Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment reported that Ukrainian and Russian forces continued combat engagements in Ukraine's salient in Kursk Oblast on Jan 3, but there were no confirmed changes to the frontline. A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces advanced to northeastern Leonidovo and northern Aleksandriya (both southeast of Korenevo). ISW has not observed confirmation of these claims, however. Russian milbloggers claimed that fighting is ongoing southeast of Korenevo near Leonidovo, Aleksandriya, Viktorovka, Nikolaevo-Darino, and Kruglenkoye and south of Sudzha near Kurilovka. A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces have not been able to fully seize the initiative in Kursk Oblast. Drone operators of the Russian 56th Airborne (VDV) Regiment (7th VDV Division), elements of the "Tigr" Volunteer Detachment (Russian Army Combat Reserve [BARS]), reconnaissance elements of the "Anvar Spetsnaz" detachment (possibly referring to the BARS-25 "Anvar" volunteer detachment), and elements of the "Veterany" Assault Brigade (Russian Volunteer Corps) are reportedly operating in Kursk Oblast.
The Khortytsia operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the northeastern part of Ukraine. )
Kramatorsk Sector:
Commander of the defence of Chasiv Yar: “There are more than 10,000 against us”
Russian troops try to cross the canal every day in order to advance into Chisiv Yar. The commander of the 24th separate mechanized brigade Bogdan said regarding the defense of the city and Russian tactics. He says, against his brigade, the Russian command is using an entire division: more than 10,000 people are involved in the offensive. Suspilne reports.
Bogdan's unit has been assigned to this area all year. The Russian army does not leave attempts to capture the Chasiv Yar, because the height is favorable for further offensive. Every day, the occupiers storm the area of the Seversky Donets canal, which runs through the city, looking for a "weak spot" to cross the artificial reservoir that stands in their way.
Bogdan says the situation is difficult, his brigade is short of personnel and artillery ammunition, but for now they continue to hold.
Toretsk Sector: Russian forces conducted 7 assaults and advanced marginally in Toretsk and Shcherbynivka.
The Tavria operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the central-eastern and southeastern part of Ukraine.)
Pokrovsk Sector : Russian forces conducted 34 assaults in this sector in the past 24 hours advancing marginally in the vicinity of Vozdvyzhenka, Uspenivka and Nadiivka.
Vremivka Sector: Russian forces advanced marginally towards Vremivka, tightening the noose around Velyka Novosilka.
The Odesa operational-strategic group
(Responsible for Kherson, Qırım, (also known as Crimea) and the Black Sea.)
Nothing major to report.
TEMPORARILY OCCUPIED TERRITORIES
Nothing major to report.
THE HOME FRONT
Russia launches over 300 drones, 20 missiles at Ukraine in first 3 days of new year
Russia launched more than 300 drones and 20 missiles, including ballistic missiles, at Ukrainian cities and villages over the first three days of the new year, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on Jan. 3.
In the first days of 2025, Russia carried out a series of attacks against Ukraine, causing the destruction of many residential buildings and infrastructure, as well as civilian casualties.
Zelensky added that the Russian army also strikes settlements close to the front line with guided aerial bombs every day.
"Such Russian terror, which is not decreasing its intensity, requires us and all our partners to continue to build our air shield and all its systemic elements, from patriots to mobile fire groups," Zelenskyy said.
"It is necessary to replenish our stock of air defence missiles constantly. We need to increase the capacity of mobile fire groups constantly. I am grateful to all the partners who help us."
RUSSIAN WORLD
Transdniestria to face new power cuts amid Russia gas shutdown
Power cuts will continue on Saturday in the breakaway Moldovan region of Transdniestria, which has been left without Russian gas supplies following Ukraine's decision not to extend a contract for Russian gas transit, local authorities said. Reuters reports.
Flows of Russian gas via Ukraine to central and eastern Europe were halted on New Year's Day after the expiry of a transit agreement between the warring countries, and Kyiv rejected doing further business with Moscow.
Transdniestrian officials said the first rolling power cuts had gone into effect on Friday evening.
The mainly Russian-speaking region, which lies along the Moldova-Ukraine border and which split from Moldova in the 1990s, had been receiving Russian gas via Ukraine and used it to produce electricity.
The official Telegram news channel of Transdniestria's government said power supplies would be cut for three hours between 2 p.m. (1200 GMT) and 5 p.m. in many districts.
The enclave's self-styled president Vadim Krasnoselsky had earlier said power cuts were inevitable. He said the region had gas reserves to cover 10 days of limited usage in the north and twice as long in the south. He did not say if there were any plans to source supplies after that.
On Saturday, Krasnoselsky said on Telegram that the blackouts could be extended to four hours on Sunday.
Russia denies using gas as a weapon to coerce Moldova, and blames Kyiv for refusing to renew the gas transit deal.
Moldova itself gets around 60% of its gas needs from Romania and produces the rest. But the Transdniestria power cuts are a problem for Moldova particularly because the enclave is home to a power plant which provides most of the power for government-controlled areas of Moldova at a fixed and low price.
Prime Minister Dorin Recean said on Friday his country faced a security crisis after Transdniestria's imposition of rolling blackouts, but he also said the Chisinau government had prepared alternative arrangements, with a mixture of domestic production and electricity imports from Romania.
Moldova says Russian gas giant Gazprom could supply gas bypassing Ukraine but has deliberately chosen not to do so. Even before the halt of supplies via Ukraine, Gazprom had said on Dec. 28 that it would suspend exports to Moldova on Jan. 1 because of what Russia says are unpaid Moldovan debts of $709 million. Moldova disputes that and put the figure at $8.6 million.
INTERNATIONAL NEWS
Slovak state energy company to continue supplying electricity to Ukraine despite Fico's threats.
Slovakia's state-controlled transmission system operator SEPS said it will continue supplying electricity to Ukraine as part of an emergency assistance contract, despite threats from Slovak Prime Minister Roberto Fico, the Kyiv Independent reported citing the Slovakian iRozhlas media outlet on Jan. 3.
Fico said on Dec. 27 that his government would consider halting electricity supplies to Ukraine after a deal to transit Russian gas to Europe through Ukraine expired on Dec. 31. Kyiv had repeatedly warned it would not renew the transit agreement to avoid financing Russia’s war.
Due to Russia's ongoing attacks on the energy system, Ukraine has turned to neighboring countries, including Slovakia, to supply additional electricity from abroad.
SEPS will continue to cooperate with the state-owned energy company Ukrenergo under a valid contract extended last spring for another 12 months, the media outlet reported. According to the contract, the Slovak company can supply Ukraine with up to 150 megawatts of electricity for emergency assistance.
SEPS has committed to ensuring the cross-border electricity transmission on "standard terms."
SEPS also provides cross-border electricity transmission via high-voltage lines. In the first 11 months of last year, net electricity exports from Slovakia to Ukraine reached 2.43 terawatt-hours, which is three and a half times higher than in the same period in 2023, according to iRozhlas.
Slovakia's former Economy Minister Karel Hirman said previously that electricity is sold to Ukraine by traders, not the state, iRozhlas reported. Hirman added that Slovakia would be drawn into a conflict within the European Union if the electricity supply to Ukraine was stopped.
Apart from threats to cut off electricity supplies to Ukraine, Fico also said Slovakia could reduce aid for Ukrainian refugees in response to Ukraine's decision to terminate Russian gas transit.
Finnish court upholds seizure of Russian tanker suspected of cable sabotage.
The Helsinki District Court ruled on Jan. 3 to uphold Finland's seizure of the Russian Eagle S oil tanker, denying an appeal to release the ship and its crew. Finnish news outlet Yle reported.
Finnish authorities allege the ship damaged a crucial undersea power cable, possibly in an act of sabotage. Estlink 2, a 170-kilometer (106-mile) cable connecting Estonia and Finland, was seriously damaged on Dec. 25.
The Eagle S is believed to be part of Russia's so-called "shadow fleet," a group of tankers Moscow uses to circumvent sanctions, including a Group of Seven (G7) price cap on Russian oil.
Finnish police initially seized the tanker on Dec. 28, considering the vessel to be evidence in a criminal investigation. Caravella LLC FZ, the ship's United Arab Emirates-based owner, applied to the court to have the seizure lifted.
Police requested the trial be held in secret and court documents kept confidential.
Finnish investigators are currently interrogating Eagle S crew members about the alleged incident. Authorities expect the initial phase of the investigation to last several weeks, and for the entire investigation to conclude in several months.
Three Finnish companies are also demanding the seizure of the tanker in order to secure compensation for damage to the cable. These include national grid operator Fingrid, telecommunications firm Elisa, and state-owned network company Cinia.
Following the cable incident, NATO pledged to enhance its military presence in the Baltic Sea. Finland joined the military alliance in early 2023 in response to Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
MILITARY & TECH
Ukraine to Receive First Mirage 2000-5F Fighter Jets in January 2025 or May Already Have Them.
Ukraine is preparing to bolster its air defense capabilities with the arrival of its first three French Mirage 2000-5F fighter jets. Defense Express reported on Jan 4 citing Avions Legendaires, the aircraft are set to be delivered by January 20, 2025. However, there are unconfirmed reports that these jets are already in Ukraine, being used for training purposes.
The Mirage 2000-5F aircraft, a product of Dassault Aviation, has undergone modifications by French Directorate General of Armaments. These upgrades have transformed the aircraft from its original role as an interceptor into a versatile platform capable of deploying the SCALP-EG/Storm Shadow cruise missiles. This capability aligns with Ukraine’s existing inventory of these advanced munitions, allowing the country to enhance its long-range strike capabilities.
Ultimately, Ukraine is expected to receive around ten Mirage 2000-5F jets, marking another significant step in its transition to Western-made military hardware. This delivery follows the arrival of the U.S.-made F-16 fighters, making the Mirage aircraft the first European-designed fighter jet to join Ukraine’s fleet.
The addition of the Mirage 2000-5F aircraft comes at a critical time, as russia continues its airstrikes on civilian infrastructure. The enhanced capabilities of these aircraft underscore the growing military cooperation between Kyiv and Paris and further strengthen Ukraine’s ability to defend against escalating threats.
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