THE RUSSO-UKRAINE WAR BRIEF
For: 2024-12-12
Slava Ukraini! In early 2022 I began a Telegram channel aggregating news from a number of sources daily on the war in Ukraine. In June 2023 I began providing a daily draft for the Ukraine War Brief Podcast collecting news from over 70 sources daily, which formed the basis of the script. While the Podcast no longer exists I have continued to make this Brief available for my followers here on Substack for those who wish to keep up with the news from the war.
All the latest news on the Russo-Ukraine War 6 days per week
ALONG THE CONTACT LINE
GSAFU Morning Report
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in its Operational Information update at 22:00 on Dec 11 stated that day 1023 of the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation against Ukraine was about to begin.
During the past day, 194 combat engagements took place. Over the past 24 hours, the enemy carried out 2 missile strikes, 15 air strikes, 407 drone strikes and more than 3,000 artillery strikes across the positions of Ukrainian forces.
At the same time, Ukrainian soldiers continue to inflict losses in manpower and equipment on the occupying troops, exhausting the enemy along the entire front line and continue to disrupt the plans of Russian occupiers to advance deeper into the territory of Ukraine.
Air Force Daily Report
There have been no daily reports from the Ukrainian Air Force for 3 days now, if they resume I will include them in future Briefs.
The Russian Border Incursion
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in its Operational Information update at 22:00 on Dec 11 stated that the Defense Forces of Ukraine repelled 22 Russian attacks over the past 24 hours. Russia continues to indiscriminately bomb their own territory.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a US based think tank, in its Dec 11 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment reported that Russian forces recently marginally advanced in Kursk Oblast. Geolocated footage published on Dec 11 indicates that Russian forces recently marginally advanced south of Novoivanovka (southeast of Korenevo) during a roughly platoon-sized mechanized assault, and a Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces also advanced east of Novoivanovka.
The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) and other Russian sources claimed that Russian forces recently seized Darino (southeast of Korenevo) and Plekhovo (southeast of Sudzha). ISW has not observed confirmation of these Russian claims. Elements of the Chechen "Akhmat" Spetsnaz are reportedly operating near Sudzha, and drone elements of the "Anvar Spetsnaz" detachment (possibly referring to the BARS-25 "Anvar" volunteer detachment), "Arbat" Special Purpose Battalion (Donetsk People's Republic [DNR] "Pyatnashka" International Volunteer Brigade, 51st Combined Arms Army [CAA]), and the 382nd Naval Infantry Battalion (810th Naval Infantry Brigade, Black Sea Fleet [BSF]), are reportedly operating near Plekhovo.[18] Elements of the Russian 11th Airborne (VDV) Brigade are reportedly operating in Sudzha Raion, elements of the 51st VDV Regiment (106th VDV Division) and of the 104th VDV Regiment (76th VDV Division) are reportedly operating near Darino, and elements of the 56th VDV Regiment (7th VDV Division) and "Tigr" Volunteer Detachment (Russian Army Combat Reserve [BARS]) are operating in the Kursk direction.
The Khortytsia operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the northeastern part of Ukraine. )
Kharkiv Sector: Over the last day Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 6 Russian attacks in the area of Hlyboke, Lyptsi, Starytsia and Vovchansk.
Kupyansk Sector: Russian Forces carried out 14 offensive actions against Ukrainian defensive positions near Zapdne, Pishchane, Zahryzove and Lozova. 3 engagements are ongoing.
Lyman Sector: Russian Forces carried out 10 unsuccessful offensive actions against Ukrainian defensive positions near Kopanky, Tverdokhilbove,Novoiehorivka, Druzhelyubivka, Hrekivka, Makiivka, Terny, Torske, the Serebryanskyy forest and Hryhorivka.
Siversk Sector: Russian forces carried out 1 offensive action against Ukrainian defences in the vicinity of Verkhnokamianske.
Kramatorsk Sector: Russian forces carried out 2 unsuccessful offensive actions against Ukrainian defences in the vicinity of Chasiv Yar and Stupochky.
Toretsk Sector: Over the last day Russian forces carried out 5 offensive actions with air support near Toretsk. 2 engagements are ongoing.
The Tavria operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the central-eastern and southeastern part of Ukraine.)
Pokrovsk Sector : Over the last day in this sector, Russian Forces carried out 39 offensive actions against Ukrainian defensive positions in the vicinity of Myrolyubivka, Myrnohrad, Pokrovsk, Promin, Lysivka, Dachenske, Shevchenko, Pishchane, Novotroitske and Novoolenivka. 3 engagements are ongoing.
Kurakhove Sector: Russia conducted 47 offensive actions in the vicinity of Zorya, Sontsivka, Stari Terny, Kurakhove, Dachne Uspenivka and Hannivka.
Vremivka Sector: Russian forces made 19 attempts to break through Ukrainian defences in the vicinity of Novodarivka, Blahodatne, Rozdolne, Sukhi Yaly, Kostiantynopolske and Trudove. 1 engagement continues.
Orikhiv Sector: Russian forces made 1 attempt to break through Ukrainian defences in the vicinity of Novoandriivka.
The Odesa operational-strategic group
(Responsible for Kherson, Qırım, (also known as Crimea) and the Black Sea.)
Prydniprovsk Sector: In this sector, over the last day, there has been no significant change in the combat environment. Russian forces made 2 unsuccessful attempts to dislodge Ukrainian units from their positions.
Russia still limits its naval operation to the eastern Black Sea
The UK Ministry of Defence in their Dec 11 Intelligence Update on Ukraine stated that the overall tempo of maritime operations in the Black Sea remains low. Ukraine continues to be successful in restricting Russian maritime operations to the eastern Black Sea. The Russian Federation Navy (RFN)’s perception of the threat of attack from Ukraine is evident through their frequent dispersal training and anti-Uncrewed Surface Vessel/Uncrewed Aerial Vehicle exercises in and around Novorossiysk. Ukraine continues to undermine the credibility of the Russian Black Sea Fleet by seeking to target naval infrastructure and vessels in the Black Sea.
The massed missile attack on Nov 28 targeting critical national infrastructure in several regions of Ukraine included launches from RFN vessels operating in the Black Sea.
The Ukrainian Air Force reported 28 land-attack cruise missiles were fired, and that their air defence systems were able to intercept a high percentage of incoming weapon systems from both the RFN and Russian long range aviation.
TEMPORARILY OCCUPIED TERRITORIES
Nothing major to report.
THE HOME FRONT
US sources believe Russia will fire a second IRBM at Ukraine
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a US based think tank, in its Dec 11 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment reported that US intelligence had warned that Russia may fire a second "Oreshnik" ballistic missile at Ukraine in the near future, likely in a continued effort to dissuade the West from providing further military assistance to Ukraine. Bloomberg, citing an unspecified US official, reported on Dec 11 that Russia may conduct a new Oreshnik ballistic missile strike against Ukraine in "the coming days." Russia first employed the Oreshnik missile in a strike against Dnipro City on Nov 21, 2024. ISW assesses that Russian Oreshnik strikes against Ukraine and the rhetoric surrounding Russia's use of the missile are part of a broader Russian reflexive control campaign aimed at forcing the West and Ukraine into self-deterrence.
Russian Chief of the General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov previously undermined this sustained Kremlin information operation, however, by claiming that Russia had planned the Oreshnik missile launch well ahead of the US decision to allow Ukraine to strike military targets in Russia with US-provided ATACMS. Russian officials are likely to amplify similar narratives about the Oreshnik if Russian forces use it again.
RUSSIAN WORLD
Engineer behind Russian Kh-69 cruise missile reportedly killed in Moscow region as part of Ukrainian intelligence operation
Mikhail Shatsky, deputy general designer and head of software at the Mars Design Bureau — which develops missiles used by the Russian military — was shot dead in the Moscow region on Friday, RBC Ukraine reports.
Ukrainska Pravda wrote that Shatsky was killed as part of a “special operation by Ukraine’s Main Intelligence
The information about the liquidation of this Russian official was confirmed to RBC-Ukraine by sources in the Ukrainian Defense Forces. The interlocutors also said that it was a Defense Intelligence of Ukraine's operation.Directorate.” (HUR)
Shatsky helped modernize Kh-59 cruise missiles to the Kh-69 model and was a proponent of integrating artificial intelligence into Russian drones and other aerospace technologies, note Ukrainian media and journalist Alexander Nevzorov.
“Today, the Defense Intelligence in Moscow eliminated a particularly harmful criminal, Deputy General Designer, Head of the Software Department of the Mars Design Bureau Mikhail Shatsky,” Nevzorov said on his Telegram channel.
According to him, Shatsky was engaged in the modernization of Kh-59 cruise missiles to the Kh-69 level, introduced new UAVs, and was responsible for the deaths of thousands of innocent Ukrainians.
Russia’s Investigative Committee and the regional prosecutor’s office have not commented on reports of Shatsky’s death.
Russia Builds 7 Passenger Planes Since Ukraine Invasion
Russia has manufactured a total of seven passenger aircraft in the nearly three years since its aviation sector was paralyzed by Western sanctions over the war in Ukraine, BBC Russia reported Thursday, citing unofficial data.
The production figures for 2022, 2023 and 2024 contrast with the pre-war years. Russia manufactured 11 commercial aircraft in 2019, 12 in 2020 and 13 in 2021.
It also falls short of the government’s sanctions-busting plans to manufacture 14 passenger aircraft in 2022, 25 in 2023 and 69 in 2024.
An anonymous industry source told BBC Russia the plan to build more than 1,000 aircraft by 2030 was an “imitation of activity” designed to “calm government nerves.”
An anonymous aviation sector expert said military aircraft manufacturing uses up the resources that would otherwise go to civil aircraft production, according to BBC Russia.
Western sanctions cut off the supply of planes and parts to Russia, forcing Russian airlines to operate fewer flights and cannibalize planes for spare parts.
Authorities classified the number of civil aircraft registered with Russian carriers over the summer.
Industry experts said the data was classified to hide both the impact of Western sanctions on Russia’s aging fleet and parallel imports from third countries.
Someone Else’s Fault — Kremlin Propagandists Explain Syrian Collapse
The sudden downfall of the murderous Assad regime in Syria, Russia’s primary Middle Eastern ally, shocked the Kremlin’s mouthpieces. Decorated propagandist Vladimir Solovyov was forced to admit on-air that Russia was unable to come to Assad’s defense because it is currently “busy” in Ukraine. The Centre for European Policy Analysis (CEPA) reports.
The end of the Assad regime in Syria, a longtime Kremlin ally, has caused lamentation in Russia.
Of course, according to Putin’s pet propagandists, the outcome was in no way Putin’s fault and the mouthpieces were keen to direct the blame elsewhere.
Was ex-President Assad able to watch the sudden switch in Kremlin storylines as he settled into his new guest dacha? Did the family gather around him, like any Russian family, to watch Russia’s propagandist-in-chief artfully explain the unfolding disaster by blaming Assad and his corrupt regime for the fiasco? Did they note the change of wording as Russia’s newscasters turned terrorists into rebels and finally blandly transformed them into an opposition movement?
Solovyov delivered some of his trademark moans and grimaces, as he salted the bitter truth with a thick sprinkling of lies: “For us, Syria is a very sensitive issue,” he said. “Before our very eyes, Syria that we have known has ceased to exist. That’s obvious.”
He went on to blame the Syrians for the fall of the Assad regime. Solovyov asserted: “If the people don’t want to fight for their country, no external force can help them — regardless of the numbers. If the people want freedom, if they want to fight, then they can be supported.”
Solovyov blamed Assad’s allies — aside from Russia — for not showing up to defend his rule. He said: “The Iranians did not show up. The Iraqis did not show up. The Lebanese did not show up. They did not come to help.”
Other pundits took turns bashing Bashar and his corrupt military, repeatedly reiterating that Russia is not to blame for Assad’s downfall, although one country that chose to run away rather than fight was Russia itself.
What of the future, that happy dawn that recently seemed so bright? Solovyov sounded none-too-hopeful about the US President-elect. “Trump’s Tweets were extremely unfriendly towards us and demonstrate that we should not harbor any illusions. We shouldn’t look for a friend in him. He says, this [Ukraine] war should stop, and everyone should go back to their own corner. I have a little question: what makes him think that his opinion is so important to us?”
The Head of RT Margarita Simonyan sought to brighten the mood by cheerily mentioning that Tulsi Gabbard, Trump’s nominee to serve as Director of National Intelligence, was reportedly watching and widely sharing RT’s reports and videos.
She predicted: “Unquestionably, victory will be ours. Unquestionably, this chaotic world, permeated with the stench of the corpse of dead democracy, has nothing to do with us. We will be building what we need, at the speed that suits us — and our goal is to help our president in doing so.”
INTERNATIONAL NEWS
ATACMS Wreckage Found Near Taganrog Aircraft Factory Producing A-50, Tu-142, and Orion UCAVs
A new, previously unknown detail suggests the historical role of this seemingly routine attack by the Ukrainian Defence Forces, Defense Express reports.
Near the Beriev Aircraft Company (TANKT) in the Russian city of Taganrog which was attacked on Dec 11, a sustainer engine from an ATACMS ballistic missile was discovered. Photo evidence is already being actively shared on social media.
This indirectly confirms the type of weapon the Ukrainian Defense Forces used to strike this aircraft factory on the Wednesday morning of December 11, 2024.
Up until this point, there had been some confusion: Russian unofficial sources spoke in general terms that the Beriev factory was hit by some ballistic missiles while local authorities warned of an incoming aerial drone threat.
Accordingly, this clear indication that it was American ATACMS missiles used emphasizes how in fact historical this strike is: after all, this is the first publicly known instance of a russian military-industrial complex enterprise targeted by Western-made tactical missiles since the outbreak of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
As far as known from public data, the specific consequences of this strike are unknown, so there is no basis to assess exactly which ATACMS variant was deployed — the M39A1 with a 165-kilogram cluster warhead and an operational range of 290 km or the M57 with a 227-kg unitary warhead and a 300-km range.
The defense industry plant in Taganrog is located about 150 km from the current line of contact — thus excluding the possibility that the M39 variant of ATACMS was used (warhead weight is 560 kg, firing
For a reminder, the Beriev Aircraft Company, targeted by this historic missile strike, despite being widely known as the manufacturer of A-50 airborne early warning systems, is actually involved in a range of important aircraft projects. Specifically, it makes Tu-142 anti-submarine warfare aircraft based on the Tu-95 strategic bomber and hosts various tests of russian Orion unmanned combat aerial vehicles.
Earlier, Defense Express estimated that in order to completely paralyze missile production in Russia, Ukraine needs to strike 12 key factories with Tomahawks at a range under 1,500 kilometers from potential launch positions.
Tusk and Macron "on the same page" regarding European security, Ukraine, and peace efforts
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk has said that he and French President Emmanuel Macron are "on the same page" regarding all key issues following their recent discussions in Warsaw, Polish news portal RMF24 reported.
On Thursday afternoon, 12 December, French President Emmanuel Macron arrived in Poland. Media reports indicated that the visit aimed to address crucial issues, as Macron travelled to Warsaw amid a political crisis in France and ongoing efforts to find a suitable candidate for a new prime minister.
Tusk noted that he and Macron had talked about European security, Europe's competitiveness, bilateral relations, the situation in Ukraine, and discussions and actions to bring about a just peace.
"All these topics have demonstrated that we are like a team... We are on the same page in matters of European security and a just peace for Ukraine," Tusk said.
Poland 'dismisses speculation' on peacekeeping mission in Ukraine, PM says
During a press conference with French President Emmanuel Macron on Dec. 12, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk addressed speculation about a possible peacekeeping mission in Ukraine, emphasizing that no such actions are currently planned. The Kyiv Independent reports.
“Decisions on Polish actions will be made in Warsaw and only in Warsaw. We are not currently planning such actions,” Tusk stated, aiming to "end speculation" on the topic.
Macron, in turn, stressed that Ukraine should determine its course of action, saying, “Strong security in Ukraine means strong security in Europe,” while highlighting the importance of providing Kyiv with security guarantees.
Tusk, whose country takes over the EU Council's presidency in January, said peace talks could begin as early as this winter.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky responded on Dec. 9 to Macron's suggestion of deploying foreign peacekeepers, saying Ukraine "may consider" the proposal but only after securing a clear timeline for NATO membership.
Recent reports suggest that the U.K. and France are considering deploying peacekeepers to Ukraine in the event of a ceasefire. German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock has also not ruled out the possibility.
The concept of European troops overseeing a peaceful post-war Ukraine has reportedly been included in a peace plan developed by U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s team.
Nato’s European members discuss 3% target for defence spending
European Nato members are holding talks about increasing the alliance’s target for defence spending to 3 per cent of GDP at its annual summit next June partly in anticipation of Donald Trump’s return as US president. The Financial Times reports.
Four people involved in the preliminary talks told the Financial Times they were discussing the steep rise from 2 per cent of GDP, a move that would put intense pressure on already strained national budgets and that has raised misgivings in many capitals.
Of Nato’s 32 members, 23 will reach the existing 2 per cent target this year, according to alliance calculations, up from six in 2018. However, this also means that seven European members, including Italy and Spain, are still failing to meet a benchmark agreed a decade ago.
However, Trump’s demand that Europe should pay more for its own defence, and a realisation that current spending levels are not enough to support Ukraine and to deter Russia, has forced capitals to take on board the scale of the under-investment.
The confidential talks, which began during a meeting of alliance foreign ministers last week and could yet fail to reach full agreement, envisage a short-term pledge to hit 2.5 per cent and, by 2030, a target of 3 per cent, three of the people said. The new commitments would be formally agreed at next year’s summit in the Netherlands.
Mark Rutte, the alliance’s secretary-general, declined to comment when asked about setting a new target, but said he would push for it to be “much more” than the existing benchmark.
“I have a number in my mind, but I’m not going to mention it now. But clearly, when you look at the capability targets, [when] you look at the gaps still there . . . It is clear that, with 2 per cent, you cannot get there,” he told the FT this month.
MILITARY & TECH
F-16s prove effective in Ukraine’s air defense, expert says
Renowned Ukrainian military expert and head of the “Come Back Alive” Foundation, Taras Chmut, has stated that F-16 fighter jets have been performing effectively in Ukraine’s defense operations. Defence Blog reports.
In an interview with the defense publication “Militarnyi,” Chmut highlighted the aircraft’s successes against enemy cruise missiles and attack drones.
“There were high expectations that they [F-16s] would help in the air defense system against cruise missiles, and this works very well. It’s like having a super-fast, super-mobile air defense missile system. They are operating properly and delivering excellent results,” Chmut said.
However, Chmut acknowledged certain limitations. The F-16s provided to Ukraine lack sufficient weaponry systems to effectively engage Russian Su-34 aircraft, which deploy guided bombs from distances beyond the frontlines. These bombs have been among the most destructive weapons used against Ukrainian forces on the battlefield.
These guided bombs are causing the heaviest losses for Ukrainian troops, and currently, only Patriot systems can counter them. Due to their limited availability, Patriot batteries are prioritized for protecting critical industrial and military infrastructure deep within Ukraine.
In August 2023, U.S. President Joe Biden approved the transfer of F-16s to Ukraine. While the U.S. will not directly supply the jets, NATO allies, including the Netherlands, Denmark, Norway, and Belgium, have pledged a total of 79 F-16s. Ukrainian pilots and maintenance crews are undergoing intensive training in Western countries to operate the multirole fighters.
Ukraine upgrades Soviet-era surface-to-air missile systems
he “Come Back Alive” Foundation has successfully completed its HORNET project, investing over 14 million hryvnias ($340,000) to modernize the Osa wheeled surface-to-air missile systems (SAMs), also known in the West as SA-8 Geckos. Defence Blog reported.
These upgrades aim to enhance Ukraine’s capability to counter drones, helicopters, aircraft, and missiles in its ongoing defense efforts.
All anti-aircraft missile regiments of the Ukrainian Ground Forces equipped with “Osa” systems have now received the modernized units. As a result of the HORNET project, these systems can now deploy not only the standard 9M33M3 surface-to-air missiles, which are in short supply, but also R-73 air-to-air guided missiles, which are currently more abundant in Ukraine’s arsenal.
“Aviation missiles have a distinct advantage as they operate on a ‘fire-and-forget’ principle. Unlike the Osa’s standard missiles, the R-73 does not require continuous guidance,” explained Oleksiy Dubinka, a military consultant for “Come Back Alive” and a servicemember. “This allows the system to relocate immediately after firing, reducing the risk of retaliatory strikes.”
Dubinka highlighted that the modernization of the “Osa” systems within the Ukrainian Ground Forces parallels the U.S.-assisted “FrankenSAM” program being implemented by the Ukrainian Air Force.
“The difference,” he noted, “is that the FrankenSAM program employs air-to-air missiles supplied by international partners, while HORNET relies on missiles and SAM systems that have been in service since the 1970s.”
The HORNET project was funded entirely through general donations managed by the “Come Back Alive” Foundation, rather than a dedicated public campaign. This approach underscores the organization’s commitment to supporting Ukraine’s military with effective and practical solutions.
The upgrades are expected to significantly enhance the combat capabilities of the “Osa” systems, providing a critical edge in defending against a variety of aerial threats.
That’s it for today’s Brief folks if you would like to keep up with events in Ukraine daily please consider subscribing.
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