THE RUSSO-UKRAINE WAR BRIEF
For: 2024-10-09
Slava Ukraini! In early 2022 I began a Telegram channel aggregating news from a number of sources daily on the war in Ukraine. In June 2023 I began providing a daily draft for the Ukraine War Brief Podcast collecting news from over 70 sources daily, much of which formed the basis of the script. While the Podcast no longer exists I have continued to make this Brief available both on my own Substack and The People’s Media for those who wish to keep up with events on a daily basis.
All the latest news on the Russo-Ukraine War 6 days per week
ALONG THE CONTACT LINE
GSAFU Morning Report
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in its Operational Information update at 22:00 on Oct 8 stated that day 959 of the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation against Ukraine was about to begin.
During the past day, 142 combat engagements took place. Over the past 24 hours, the enemy carried out 67 air strikes, 467 drone strikes and more than 2,520 artillery strikes across the positions of Ukrainian forces.
At the same time, Ukrainian soldiers continue to inflict losses in manpower and equipment on the occupying troops, exhausting the enemy along the entire front line and continue to disrupt the plans of Russian occupiers to advance deep into the territory of Ukraine.
Air Force Daily Report
On the night of October 9, 2024, the enemy attacked Poltava Oblast with three Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missiles from the Kursk region - Russia, as well as 22 attack UAVs from Primorsko-Akhtarsk - Russia, Cape Chauda - Crimea.
Aviation, anti-aircraft missile forces, electronic warfare units and mobile fire groups of the Air Force and the Defense Forces of Ukraine were involved in repelling the attack.
As a result of anti-aircraft combat, 21 enemy UAVs were shot down in Odesa, Vinnytsia and Kyiv regions. Another attack drone turned in the direction of Russia!
The Russian Border Incursion
There has been no significant change in the combat environment in the last 24 hours.
The Khortytsia operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the northeastern part of Ukraine. )
Kharkiv Sector: Over the last day Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled Russian attacks near Starysya and Vovchansk. One battle is ongoing near Vovchansk.
Kupyansk Sector: Russian Forces carried out 16 offensive actions against Ukrainian defensive positions near Synkivka, Petropavlivka, Stepova Novoselivka, Novoosynove, Kruhlyakivka, and Lozova and Vyshneve. 4 engagements continue.
Lyman Sector: Russian Forces carried out 17 offensive actions against Ukrainian defensive positions near Hrekivka, Makiivka, Nevske, Novolyubivka, Novosadove, Torske and Dibrova. 1 engagement continues.
Siversk Sector: Russian forces carried out 2 unsuccessful assaults in the vicinity of Spirne and Ivano-Darivka.
Kramatorsk Sector: Russian forces carried out 4 offensive actions near Kalinina, Chasiv Yar, Stupochky and Bila Hora. 1 engagement continues.
Toretsk Sector: Russian forces carried out 12 offensive actions with air support near Dyliivka, Toretsk, and Nelipivka. 5 engagements continue.
Kharkiv Sector: Over the last day Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled Russian attacks near Starysya and Vovchansk. One battle is ongoing near Vovchansk.
Kupyansk Sector: Russian Forces carried out 16 offensive actions against Ukrainian defensive positions near Synkivka, Petropavlivka, Stepova Novoselivka, Novoosynove, Kruhlyakivka, and Lozova and Vyshneve. 4 engagements continue.
Lyman Sector: Russian Forces carried out 17 offensive actions against Ukrainian defensive positions near Hrekivka, Makiivka, Nevske, Novolyubivka, Novosadove, Torske and Dibrova. 1 engagement continues.
Siversk Sector: Russian forces carried out 2 unsuccessful assaults in the vicinity of Spirne and Ivano-Darivka.
Kramatorsk Sector: Russian forces carried out 4 offensive actions near Kalinina, Chasiv Yar, Stupochky and Bila Hora. 1 engagement continues.
Toretsk Sector: Russian forces carried out 12 offensive actions with air support near Dyliivka, Toretsk, and Nelipivka. 5 engagements continue.
The Tavria operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the central-eastern and southeastern part of Ukraine.)
Pokrovsk Sector : Russian forces conducted 37 attacks against Ukrainian defences in the vicinity of Suha Balka, Novotoretske, Promin, Krutnyi Yar, Sukhyi Yar Lysivka Novohrodivka and Selydove. 4 engagements continue.
Kurakhove Sector: The main efforts of the enemy over the last day focused in this direction. Russian forces conducted 39 attacks against Ukrainian defences in the vicinity of Tsukuryne, Novoselydivka, Izmailivka, Hirnyk, Kurakhivka, Maksymilyanivka, Heorhiivka, Konstantinivka, Antonivka and Vodyane. 3 engagements continue.
Vremivka Sector: Russian forces made 6 assaults against Ukrainian positions near Bohoyavlenka. 2 engagements continue.
Orikhiv Sector: Russian forces made 2 unsuccessful attempts to advance against Ukrainian positions near Robotyne.
The Odesa operational-strategic group
(Responsible for Kherson, Qırım, (also known as Crimea) and the Black Sea.)
Prydniprovsk Sector: In this sector, over the last day, Russian forces made 6 unsuccessful attempts to force Ukrainian units from their positions on the left bank of the Dnipro.
TEMPORARILY OCCUPIED TERRITORIES
Nothing major to report.
THE HOME FRONT
Ukraine's Parliament passes amendments to criminal law following Rome Statute ratification
On Oct. 9, the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine passed Bill No. 11484 in its second reading, amending criminal legislation following the ratification of the Rome Statute. 228 lawmakers voted in favor of the bill. New Voice reports.
The bill aims to align Ukraine’s Criminal Code with the norms of the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court (ICC).
Until now, Ukraine’s Criminal Code did not include provisions for crimes against humanity or war crimes. Additionally, its provisions were not fully in line with modern international law.
The new amendments also introduce the concept of command responsibility. This means commanders will be held accountable for war crimes committed by their subordinates, even if they didn’t commit the crimes themselves but were aware of them and failed to act.
The bill also increases the punishment for the crime of aggression, extending it to life imprisonment.
Ukraine signed the Rome Statute on Jan. 20, 2000. The law on its ratification was passed by the Rada on Aug. 21, 2024, and later signed by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Aug. 24.
RUSSIAN WORLD
Russia's Army Recruits Are Increasingly Older, Less Capable Men.
The Russian military is seeing an influx of older contract soldiers who are largely seen as detrimental to its war effort in Ukraine,The Moscow Times reports citing the investigative news outlet Vyorstka, who spoke to various anonymous military and parliamentary sources.
Volunteer fighters aged 45 and over now make up half of new recruits in Moscow, a senior Mayor’s Office source was cited as saying. The average age of recruits has risen from 40 at the start of the year to about 50, said another Moscow Mayor’s Office source.
“They’re all sick,” a Russian soldier fighting in Ukraine was quoted as saying of these troops. “Their legs hurt, their heads hurt, and they’re slow.”
Russia’s Armed Forces have been carrying out a mass campaign to promote contract service since the spring of 2023.
In recent months, regional and federal authorities have offered increasing financial and other incentives to bolster its ranks in Ukraine without turning to a new round of politically risky mobilization.
Vyorstka’s report on the country’s aging manpower is in part corroborated by the BBC’s Russian service and the independent news website Mediazona’s research into Russia’s verified military death toll.
The outlets identified 2,475 volunteer soldiers over 45 years old who died in Ukraine so far this year, a figure that’s half of Russia’s overall death toll in 2024.
Another Russian weapons depot set ablaze
A Ukrainian drone strike set ablaze a Russian weapons depot storing North Korean ammunition in Bryansk Oblast, The Kyiv Independent reported citing Ukraine’s General Staff on Oct. 9.
"According to available information, missiles and artillery weapons, including those that came from North Korea, as well as guided aerial bombs, were stored on the territory of the warehouse," it said in a post on Telegram. "A significant number were located under the open sky."
The General Staff said the depot was the 67th Arsenal of Russia’s Main Missile and Artillery Directorate (GRAU), located near the city of Karachev.
Earlier on Oct. 9, the Telegram channel Astra said a warehouse in the Bryansk Oblast had been attacked, and local residents had reported air raid sirens in the early hours of the morning of Oct. 9.
Videos accompanying Astra’s post showed multiple, quick-fire explosions coming from the area of a large fire.
Russia’s Defense Ministry claimed on Oct. 9 that 47 Ukrainian drones had been shot down overnight, including 24 in Bryansk Oblast.
NEWS WORLDWIDE
Hungary’s Orban rebuked by EU chief over Russia stance
European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen rebuked Hungary over its stance on Russia’s war in Ukraine, and its strengthening of political and economic ties with Moscow in comments at the European Parliament in Strasbourg on Oct. 9 The Kyiv Independent reports.
In what promised to be a heated plenary session, Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orban had hoped to discuss his country’s plans for the Presidency of the European Council which it currently holds until the end of the year.
Hungary has repeatedly blocked aid to Ukraine, pushed for negotiations, and frequently spouted Kremlin talking points. Hungary has condemned Russia's full-scale invasion while refusing to supply Ukraine with weapons.
Instead, he was confronted by von der Leyen who rebuked several aspects of his country’s stance towards Russia.
"The world has witnessed the atrocities of Russia's war. And yet, there are still some who blame this war not on the invader but the invaded. Not on Putin’s lust for power but on Ukraine’s thirst for freedom," von der Leyen said. "So I want to ask them, would they ever blame the Hungarians for the Soviet invasion in 1956?" von der Leyen said while looking directly at Orban.
The comment came after a top aide of Orban criticized Ukraine's resistance to Russia's full-scale invasion, calling it "irresponsible" and suggesting his country would have advised against fighting back if it had been asked.
Orban rejected von der Leyen’s parallel, saying "there is nothing in common between 1956 and the Russian-Ukrainian war."
Von der Layen also criticized Hungary’s scheme to simplify the procedure to grant visas to Russian nationals, describing it as a "backdoor for foreign interference."
NATO entering ‘3.0’ version, Finland’s president says
NATO is entering its "3.0" version, and is returning back to its original role as a deterrent against threats "mainly from Russia," Finnish President Alexander Stubb said during a press conference on Oct. 8 in Brussels.
Created in 1949 in the early stages of the Cold War, the military alliance was formed to provide collective security against the Soviet Union.
Finland joined NATO early 2023 after ditching its longstanding neutral stance following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
"I firmly believe that we are now witnessing the creation of NATO 3.0," Stubb said, adding: "We are back to the original role of NATO as a deterrence and strong military alliance with a threat coming from the East, mainly from Russia."
"We have a very common understanding inside the alliance about our security challenges, and I think it is extremely important now that we work on both – deterrence and defense."
Earlier this month Mark Rutte took the helm as the new secretary general of NATO, stressing on his first day that the alliance has to ensure that Ukraine "prevails as a sovereign, independent, democratic nation."
Rutte added that NATO members have to "spend more" in order to "increase our collective defense," adding: "NATO’s partnerships… have to go wider, and deeper, given all the insecurities in the world."
Helsinki has sent 25 military packages to Ukraine as of September 2024 with the total amount of military aid Finland has provided Kyiv now standing at 2.3 billion euros ($2.5 billion), its Ministry of Defense said.
Finland will also host a new tactical battlegroup and new headquarters to lead NATO land operations in the region.
MILITARY & TECH
Ukraine receives a new IRIS-T Battery
“German Aid To Ukraine” on Twitter citing a statement last week from Major General Christian Freuding reported that Germany had delivered an IRIS-T SLM fire unit along with two IRIS-T SLS launchers to Ukraine.
The deliveries were made under a German program, partly financed by Norway. These systems will help strengthen Ukraine's air defense and protect strategic facilities from air threats.
IRIS-T SLM and IRIS-T SLS are modern German air defense systems for protection against air threats at various distances. IRIS-T SLM is capable of hitting targets at medium distances (up to ~40 km), and IRIS-T SLS is an additional air defense component (both autonomous and as part of IRIS-T SLM) for destroying targets at close ranges (up to ~12 km).
Downed S-70 Okhotnik Was Carrying Glide Bombs
Among the wreckage of the russian S-70 Okhotnik unmanned combat aerial vehicle (UCAV), reportedly downed by friendly fire, Ukrainian emergency services discovered fragments of the UMPB D-30 guided glide bomb. This air-launched munition was first recorded during russian long-range strikes on Kharkiv in March 2024. Defense Express reports.
The presence of the UMPB D-30 at the crash site suggests that russian forces intended to use the S-70 Okhotnik as a standoff bomber, deploying precision-guided glide bombs. Even before the photo evidence of the UMPB D-30 wreckage emerged online, Defense Express had outlined why this role is currently the most suitable for the S-70, given that more advanced tasks, like escorting piloted fighters, remain beyond its capabilities.
The selection of the UMPB D-30 over the more commonly used UMPK can be explained by the S-70's design, which incorporates stealth technologies and therefore only has internal weapon bays, with no suspension points under wings. The UMPK, based on a large FAB bomb, would simply not fit within the drone’s internal compartments.
Moreover, the UMPB D-30 offers a greater range. Unlike the UMPK, which is essentially a free-fall bomb equipped with wings and guidance systems, the UMPB was originally designed as a glide bomb. It boasts an impressive range of 90 km, allowing the S-70 to launch strikes from safer distances.
Moscow likely views this drone-bomb combination as an effective solution for aerial strikes against Ukraine. Performing such missions puts at risk just an uncrewed drone, albeit an expensive one. Additionally, operating a drone is more cost-effective than deploying a manned aircraft like the Su-34, due in part to the drone’s single-engine design, which reduces maintenance and refueling costs.
However, it’s important to note that russia has not yet started mass-producing the S-70 Okhotnik. Only four prototypes existed, the latest of which was lost just recently. For now, the prospect of squadrons of these drones appearing in Ukrainian skies remains distant.
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