THE RUSSO-UKRAINE WAR BRIEF
For: 25-01-09
Slava Ukraini! In early 2022 I began a Telegram channel aggregating news from a number of sources daily on the war in Ukraine. In June 2023 I began providing a daily draft for the Ukraine War Brief Podcast collecting news from over 70 sources daily, which formed the basis of the script. While the Podcast no longer exists I have continued to make this Brief available for my followers here on Substack for those who wish to keep up with the news from the war.
All the latest news on the Russo-Ukraine War 6 days per week
ALONG THE CONTACT LINE
GSAFU Morning Report
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in its Operational Information update at 08:00 on Jan 9 stated that day 1051 of the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation against Ukraine had begun.
The situation on the line of combat remains tense in some sectors. Ukrainian defenders continue to actively counteract the Russian aggressor, causing them losses in personnel equipment and technology. Exhausting the enemy along the entire front line and continuing to disrupt the plans of Russian occupiers to advance deeper into the territory of Ukraine.
During the past day,192 combat engagements took place. Over the past 24 hours, the enemy carried out 35 air strikes, used more than 2,330 drones and more than 5,000 artillery strikes across the positions of Ukrainian forces and civilians.
Air Force Daily Report
46 ENEMY UAVS WERE SHOT, 24 DRUANS FAILED TO REACH THEIR TARGETS (LOCATIONALLY LOST)
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On the night of January 9, 2025 (from 7:30 p.m. on January 7), the enemy attacked with 70 Shahed attack UAVs and simulator drones of various types from the directions of Millerovo, Orel, Kursk, Bryansk, Primorsko-Akhtarsk - Russia.
The air attack was repelled by aviation, anti-aircraft missile troops, electronic warfare units, and mobile fire groups of the Air Force and Defense Forces of Ukraine.
As of 09:00, it was confirmed that 46 Shahed attack UAVs and drones of other types were shot down in Poltava, Sumy, Kharkiv, Cherkasy, Chernihiv, Kyiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kherson, and Mykolaiv regions.
24 enemy drone simulators — lost in location (without negative consequences).
Private houses in Kharkiv, Sumy, and Cherkasy regions were damaged due to the fall of downed attack UAVs.
The Russian Border Incursion
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a US based think tank, in its jan 8 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment reported that Russian forces recently advanced in the Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast amid continued offensive operations in the area on Jan 8. Geolocated footage published on Jan 8 indicates that Russian forces advanced into western Nikolaevka (northwest of Sudzha) and marginally advanced in Makhnovka (southeast of Sudzha).
Ukraine's Special Operations Forces (SSO) reported on Jan 8 that Ukrainian forces repelled a Russian roughly reinforced platoon-sized mechanized assault in an unspecified area in Kursk Oblast.
Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces advanced northwest of Sudzha near Malaya Loknya, Nikolayevka, Staraya Sorochina, Orlovka, and Nikolayevo-Darino; northeast of Sudzha near Russkoye Porechnoye and Cherkasskoye Porechnoye; east of Sudzha near Bondarevka; and southeast of Sudzha near Makhnovka. A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces seized Kositsa (northeast of Sudzha) and that elements of the Russian 34th Motorized Rifle Brigade (49th Combined Arms Army [CAA], Southern Military District [SMD]) are clearing Pogrebki (northwest of Sudzha). ISW has not observed visual confirmation of any of these claims, however.
A Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces counterattacked near Pogrebki. Elements of the Russian 106th Airborne (VDV) Division are reportedly operating in the direction of Sverdlikhovo (northwest of Sudzha)
The Khortytsia operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the northeastern part of Ukraine. )
Kupyansk Sector: Russian forces advanced marginally north east of Zapadne
Lyman Sector: Over the last two days Russian forces advanced through the Ivanivka and advanced marginally into the field east of there.
Siversk Sector: A Russian assault south west of Verkhnokamianske was broken up by a Ukrainian precision munitions strike.
The Tavria operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the central-eastern and southeastern part of Ukraine.)
Pokrovsk Sector : There were 27 combat engagements over the previous day, Russian forces were pushed back from recently gained positions in Yelyzavetivka.
Kurakhove Sector: There were 32 combat engagements over the previous day, Russian forces advanced marginally into Slovianka and north of Kostiantynopolske.
Vremivka Sector: Over the last day, Russian forces advanced marginally northwards towards Novosilka.
The Odesa operational-strategic group
(Responsible for Kherson, Qırım, (also known as Crimea) and the Black Sea.)
There have been no major changes to the combat environment since our last report.
TEMPORARILY OCCUPIED TERRITORIES
Nothing major to report.
THE HOME FRONT
Russian attacks against Ukraine kill 19, injure 132 over past day
Russian attacks across Ukraine killed at least 19 civilians and injured at least 132 over the past day, regional authorities said on Jan. 9, with most of the casualties reported following an airstrike on Zaporizhzhia. The Kyiv Independent reports citing local authorities.
Russia launched 70 Shahed-type attack drones and various dummy drones against Ukraine overnight, the Air Force reported. Forty-six drones were shot down over nine regions, while 24 dummy drones were lost in the airspace, according to the statement.
A Russian airstrike against an industrial facility in the city of Zaporizhzhia on Jan. 8 killed at least 13 people and injured at least 113, the State Emergency Service said the following day.
Fifty-nine people have been hospitalized, of whom 10 are in serious condition.
Elsewhere in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, two people were killed and two injured in a Russian attack against the village of Stepnohirsk, Governor Ivan Fedorov said.
In Kharkiv Oblast, two women aged 42 and 67 were injured on the evening of Jan. 8 after a Russian drone attack against the village of Nove Pekelne, Governor Oleh Syniehubov reported. The victims did not require hospitalization.
Four people were killed and 10 injured in Russian attacks against Kherson Oblast over the past day, according to Governor Oleksandr Prokudin. Two high-rise buildings, four houses, agricultural machinery, and cars were damaged.
Five civilians were injured in Russian strikes in Sumy Oblast on Jan. 8, including three in the Seredyna-Buda community and two in the Yunakiv community, the regional military administration reported.
Later on Jan 9 a Russian air strike on Kherson damaged a Kindergarten, injuring 6.
RUSSIAN WORLD
End of Russian gas transit via Ukraine one of Moscow's 'most costly defeats,' White House says
The recent shutdown of Russia's gas transit through Ukrainian territory is one of Moscow's "most costly defeats," U.S. National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby said, Ukrinform reported on Jan. 8.
Ukraine terminated Russian natural gas transit through its territory on Jan. 1. Kyiv had repeatedly warned that it would not extend the agreement when it expires at the end of 2024 because it did not want to finance Russia's war.
Ukraine's move will deprive Russia of about $6.5 billion in annual revenue from gas sales to Europe, according to Kirby. The spokesperson added that the U.S. also tries to make Russia suffer losses through sanctions and export restrictions.
Meanwhile, Washington is trying to increase energy supplies to Europe, particularly liquefied natural gas (LNG). According to Kirby, currently, 50% of European LNG imports come from the U.S.
The spokesperson mentioned that 25 years ago, when Russian President Vladimir Putin took office, more than 130 billion cubic meters of gas were transported to Europe through Ukraine, and today this figure is zero.
Following Ukraine's termination of Russian gas transportation through its territory, gas prices in Europe rose by 4.3% to almost 51 euros per megawatt-hour. This rise is the highest since October 2023 and comes ahead of freezing temperatures forecast across much of Europe.
The halt also coincided with a major gas outage in Moldova's Russian-occupied Transnistria region, which relied on transit through Ukraine, according to its gas supplier Tiraspoltransgaz-Pridnestrovie.
Russia's state-owned energy giant Gazprom claimed that the halt of gas supplies to Moldova was caused by alleged unpaid debt by Chisinau rather than transit issues.
Saratov Oblast Governor Roman Busargin said Ukrainian drone debris struck an unspecified "industrial facility" around 5:30 a.m. local time amid a "massive" drone attack on the city.
No information was immediately available as to the extent of the damage caused. Busargin said that there were no injuries as a result of the attack. Russia's Defense Ministry claimed that 11 Ukrainian attack drones were downed over Saratov Oblast.
"The depot's destruction creates significant logistical problems for Russian strategic aviation and reduces its ability to attack peaceful Ukrainian cities and civilian facilities," the General Staff said.
The Engels-2 base hosts the 121st Guards Heavy Bomber Aviation Regiment, operating Tu-160 bombers, and the 184th Heavy Bomber Aviation Regiment with the Tupolev Tu-95 MS planes.
Russia uses these aircraft to launch mass strikes on Ukraine, often resulting in heavy damage to infrastructure and civilian casualties. Ukrainian forces have previously launched drone strikes targeting the airbase itself.
Ukraine strikes Russian oil depot supplying fuel to Engels-2 airbase
Ukrainian forces attacked a Russian oil depot in Engels, Saratov Oblast, overnight on Jan. 8, The Kyiv Independent reported citing a statement from the General Staff of Ukraine's Armed Forces following a report of drone attacks.
The operation, carried out jointly by Ukraine's military intelligence, the Unmanned Systems Forces, and other units, targeted the Kristal Plant used to supply fuel to the nearby Engels-2 airbase, the military said.
The statement comes shortly after Russian authorities reported a drone attack in the area, with footage of the burning oil facility circulating on social media.
The city of Engels lies around 600 kilometers (370 miles) from the front lines in Ukraine.
INTERNATIONAL NEWS
Lithuania tightens security ahead of decoupling from the Russian energy grid.
Lithuania’s government says it will boost security on its power grids with Poland ahead of planned decoupling from the Russian energy system next month. Euronews reports.
Lithuania says it’s ramping up security around the country’s electricity link with Poland ahead of their planned disconnection from the Baltic region’s power systems, a Soviet-era grid shared with Russia and Belarus.
Lithuanian Prime Minister Gintautas Paluckas says the government has asked police forces to protect the power link shared with Warsaw. After recent incidents and suspected sabotage in the Baltic Sea, Vilnius believes it’s crucial to intensify security measures around the LitPol Link.
Last month, the former Lithuanian government decided to increase the security of LitPol’s converter and transformer station near the city of Alytus in southern Lithuania.
That mission was outsourced to a private security company, which was contracted to protect the premises until spring. They would then hand over the protection duty to the country’s Public Security Service.
Paluckas, who assumed office on 12 December, announced on Wednesday that his cabinet has decided to begin the transition process next week.
“We evaluate every possible version of sabotage, from cybersecurity to physical actions. Therefore, we deploy the Public Security Service, because it has the most experience in protecting the critical objects. They will replace private security services that have been protecting these objects,” said Paluckas at a press conference.
Lithuania says the Baltic Sea has for some time been “very peculiar” as incidents of undersea infrastructure damage and destruction increased.
“Either it's intentional or unintentional, the number of these incidents will increase. The Baltic Sea is very peculiar, it's relatively shallow and cables are not that deep. Therefore, these incidents will repeat because Russia is using the shadow fleet,” said Giedrimas Jeglinskas, chairman of the Parliament Committee on National Security and Defence.
Vilnius says it is observing “clear and unambiguous attempts by opponents to disrupt” their planned decoupling from the Russian energy systems, according to the office of the Lithuanian prime minister. They offered no further detail as to what those attempts were or who could be behind them.
The government did, however, provide assurances to the public, asserting that there are no scenarios in which the country would be left without power. Officials also added that if disruptions do indeed occur, they will not steer the country away from its long-time goal of disconnecting from the Kremlin’s electricity grid.
“There is no scenario in which Lithuania would be left without electricity. We've evaluated all scenarios, including operating without any interconnections. Those reserves have been assessed, and scenarios A, B, C, D and so on have been worked out,” Lithuanian Deputy Energy Minister Arnoldas Pikžirnis said.
"Despite any provocations that could occur, any incidents, the disconnection from BRELL (which is) Belarus, Russia, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania – the Russian electricity grid – is inevitable and will happen in exactly one month," he added.
Zelenskyy: DPRK lost at least 4,000 soldiers in Russia’s war against Ukraine.
In Russia's war against Ukraine, the North Korean army has already lost 4,000 soldiers in killed and wounded.
Censor.NET reports, citing Ukrinform, this was announced by President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy during the opening of the 25th meeting of the Contact Group on Ukraine's Defence ("Ramstein" format).
"Putin is not just maintaining his investment in aggression. He is doubling them. He has even started hiring soldiers from North Korea to continue this war. The DPRK is learning modern methods of warfare. They do not value their people. To date, they have lost 4000 people," Zelenskyy said.
US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said that Russia could provide the DPRK with advanced space and satellite technologies in exchange for weapons and other equipment for the war against Ukraine.
"Ramstein" Coalition pledges over $122bn in military aid to Ukraine, guaranteeing support until 2027.
US Secretary of Defence Lloyd Austin said during a meeting in the Ramstein format on Jan 9 that the United States and the countries that are members of the Contact Group for the Defence of Ukraine have pledged more than $122 billion in security assistance to Ukraine since the beginning of the Russian invasion, Censor.NET reports.
"Over the past few years, we have done everything necessary to provide Ukraine with the security assistance it needs. And together, we have committed more than $122 billion in security assistance and expanded plants around the world," Austin said in his speech.
Austin also noted that in recent weeks, members of the Contact Group have announced new aid packages for Ukraine. In particular, Germany has promised to supply $680 million worth of equipment, Norway will allocate more than $2 billion, and the United Kingdom will continue to provide Ukraine with $3 billion annually.
The US Secretary of Defence also noted the countries that make a significant contribution to Ukraine's assistance in relation to their GDP. Denmark, Estonia and Latvia became the three largest providers of aid per capita.
Austin also announced that today, Jan 9, the meeting will determine Ukraine's defence capabilities until 2027 to support its deterrence posture. This meeting will be Austin's last as US Secretary of Defence.
MILITARY & TECH
Russian forces increase the use of drones connected to fibre optics to counter Ukraines use of electronic warfare.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a US based think tank, in its Jan 8 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment reported that Russian forces are increasingly using drones attached to fiber optic cables in Ukraine. The spokesperson of a Ukrainian brigade reported on Jan 8 that Russian forces are increasingly using drones attached to fiber optic cables that are resistant to electronic warfare (EW) interference in strikes against Ukrainian forces throughout the frontline.
The spokesperson noted that Russian forces are not yet systematically employing fiber-optic drones and noted that fiber-optic drones are slower and less maneuverable than first-person view (FPV) drones, making fiber-optic drones more vulnerable to small-arms fire.
A Russian milblogger claimed on Jan 8 that Russian forces were the first to successfully develop and integrate fiber-optic drones into combat operations in Ukraine but cautioned that Ukrainian would soon develop similar innovations. The milbloggers added that Russian forces will need to develop new means of downing Ukrainian fiber-optic drones.
Pentagon discloses details of latest aid package for Ukraine
The Pentagon has announced what is included in the US$500 million military aid package for Ukraine, which was announced by Lloyd Austin, US Secretary of Defense.
This is the 74th tranche of military equipment provided by the administration of President Joe Biden from the US Department of Defense's stockpile for Ukraine since August 2021.
The Pentagon announced that the package includes:
AIM-7, RIM-7 and AIM-9M missiles for air defence;
air-to-ground missiles;
equipment for the F-16s;
armoured bridge layers;
secure communications equipment;
small arms and ammunition;
spare parts, support equipment, services, training and transport.
UK Plans to Create COOKSON Unmanned Missile Boat for Ukrainian Navy.
The UK Ministry of Defence (MOD) has announced the launch of the COOKSON project, which involves the creation of an unmanned attack boat for the Ukrainian Navy. Defense Express reports.
The first session of this project is scheduled for Jan 22, 2025, and NATO member countries, Ukraine, and Five-Eyes countries have been invited to strengthen the naval capabilities of the Ukrainian Defense Forces.
In this case, we are referring to the development of an actual naval missile drone boat. Based on the announced projected characteristics, the open question remains whether Ukraine’s domestically developed Neptune missile will be used for this project.
As emphasized by the British portal UK Defence Journal, not only have the projected characteristics of the future development been determined, but also the timeline for when the first prototypes are expected to be showcased—by early 2026.
Moreover, this is not just an innovative development but one with the potential for mass production. The project conditions include a requirement that, within six months of serial production, the production rate should reach two to three unmanned attack boats per month.
Additionally, it is expected that the future unmanned missile boat will have a cruising speed of up to 40 knots, a maximum range of up to 800 nautical miles, and a minimum patrol duration of 72 hours. The platform should also carry at least two missiles with a launch range of 30 to 100 kilometers and be capable of operating even under conditions of active enemy electronic warfare (EW)
Furthermore, the future unmanned attack boat under the COOKSON project is expected to be equipped with self-defense systems against enemy aerial threats, such as heavy machine guns, MANPADS, or other means. The platform should also be compact enough for easy transportation directly to Ukrainian territory, and the missiles for this boat must be produced in a minimum quantity of 20 units per month.
What is particularly interesting is that COOKSON is primarily intended for targeting coastal objectives and, secondarily, for targeting surface vessels of the Russian federation.
For comparison, it is worth noting that Turkey is already offering the ULAQ unmanned surface vessel project for export. This project is designed for the ÇAKIR cruise missiles from Roketsan, with a launch range of up to 150 kilometers, and includes a "classic" attack boat designed for these cruise missiles.
That’s it for today’s Brief folks if you would like to keep up with events in Ukraine daily please consider subscribing.