THE RUSSO-UKRAINE WAR BRIEF

For: 2024-11-25

Nov 25, 2024

Slava Ukraini! In early 2022 I began a Telegram channel aggregating news from a number of sources daily on the war in Ukraine. In June 2023 I began providing a daily draft for the Ukraine War Brief Podcast collecting news from over 70 sources daily, which formed the basis of the script. While the Podcast no longer exists I have continued to make this Brief available for my followers here on Substack for those who wish to keep up with the news from the war. A version of this Brief will also be made available on The People’s Media Substack for those who should choose to subscribe there.

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ALONG THE CONTACT LINE

GSAFU Morning Report

The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in its Operational Information update at 22:00 on Nov 24 stated that day 1006 of the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation against Ukraine was about to begin.

During the two past days, 422 combat engagements took place. Over the past 48 hours, the enemy carried out 1 missile strike, 85 air strikes, 815 drone strikes and more than 5,000 artillery strikes across the positions of Ukrainian forces.

At the same time, Ukrainian soldiers continue to inflict losses in manpower and equipment on the occupying troops, exhausting the enemy along the entire front line and continue to disrupt the plans of Russian occupiers to advance deep into the territory of Ukraine.

Air Force Daily Report

On the night of Nov 24, 2024 (from 00:30), the occupiers attacked Ukraine with UAVs of the "Shahed" type and unmanned aerial vehicles of an unknown type from the Oryol and Bryansk regions.

In total, 73 enemy UAVs were detected and escorted.

Aviation, anti-aircraft missile units, electronic warfare equipment and mobile fire groups of the Air Force and the Defense Forces of Ukraine are involved in repelling the attack.

As of 09:00, air defense shot down 50 enemy drones in the Kyiv, Cherkasy, Kirovohrad, Chernihiv, Sumy, Poltava, and Zhytomyr regions.

19 drones were lost in location, presumably due to active anti-aircraft defense of the Defense Forces.

There are 4 enemy UAVs in the air, combat work continues!

Information is being updated.

During the day (last day) on Nov 24, 2024, from 10:00 a.m. to 5:30 p.m., the enemy struck again with drones of various types, guided air bombs and guided air missiles Kh-59/69. Since the enemy is constantly changing the tactics of using attack drones, the format of providing information on the results of air defense combat work may change. After all, before the attacks of "shaheeds" were carried out only at night - in the dark. Now the enemy is using strike UAVs during the day as well.

On the night of Nov 25, 2024 (from 6:30 p.m. on Nov 24), the occupiers will attack Ukraine with "Shahed" type UAVs and drones of an unspecified type from the directions of Orel, Kursk, Millerovo, Primorsko-Akhtarsk - Russian Federation, TOT of Crimea.

In total, during the specified period, the Air Force's radio engineering forces detected and escorted 145 enemy UAVs.

Aviation, anti-aircraft missile units, electronic warfare equipment and mobile fire groups of the Air Force and Defense Forces of Ukraine were involved in repelling the attack.

As of 11:00 a.m., air defenses shot down 71 enemy drones in the Kyiv, Cherkasy, Kirovohrad, Chernihiv, Sumy, Kharkiv, Poltava, Zhytomyr, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, Dnipropetrovsk, Odesa, Mykolaiv, and Kherson regions.

71 UAVs — lost in location, presumably due to active countermeasures by the Defense Forces' EW, another drone flew in the direction of Belarus.

Information is being updated.

The Russian Border Incursion

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a US based think tank, in its Nov 24 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment reported that Ukrainian and Russian forces recently advanced in the main Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast amid continued fighting in the area on Nov 24.

Geolocated footage published on November 20 indicates that Ukrainian forces recently advanced northeast of Martynovka (northeast of Sudzha).

Additional geolocated footage published on Nov 24 indicates that Russian forces recently advanced south of Zeleny Shlyakh (southeast of Korenevo). Russian sources continued to claim that elements of the Russian 51st Airborne (VDV) Regiment (106th VDV Division) seized Darino (southeast of Korenevo), although one Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces have not completely cleared the settlement and that Ukrainian forces are still operating in the area.

Russian milbloggers claimed that fighting continued southeast of Korenevo near Nikolayevo-Darino; north of Sudzha near Plekhovo; near Sudzha itself; and southeast of Sudzha near Plekhovo and Pogrebki. Elements of the Russian 810th Naval Infantry Brigade (Black Sea Fleet, Southern Military District [SMD]) reportedly continue to operate in Kursk Oblast.

The Khortytsia operational-strategic group

(Responsible for the northeastern part of Ukraine. )

Kharkiv Sector: Over the last day Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 10 Russian attacks in the area of Starytsya, Ohirtseve and Vovchansk.

Kupyansk Sector: Russian Forces carried out 15 offensive actions against Ukrainian defensive positions near Kolisynivka, Kruhlyakivka, Senkove and Lozova. 4 engagements are ongoing.

Lyman Sector: Russian Forces carried out 20 offensive actions against Ukrainian defensive positions near Druzhelyubivka, Hrekivka, Terny, Yampolivka, Torske and Serebryanka.

Siversk Sector: In this sector, over the last day, there has been no significant change in the combat environment.

Kramatorsk Sector: Russian forces carried out 4 offensive actions against Ukrainian defences in the vicinity of Chasiv Yar and Stupochky.

Toretsk Sector: Over the last day Russian forces carried out 9 offensive actions with air support near Dyliivka, Toretsk and Shcherbynivka.

The Tavria operational-strategic group

(Responsible for the central-eastern and southeastern part of Ukraine.)

Pokrovsk Sector : This sector saw intense fighting over the last day, Russian Forces carried out 41 offensive actions against Ukrainian defensive positions in the vicinity of Myrolyubivka, Promin, Lysivka, Dachenske, Pustynka and Pushkine. 9 engagements are ongoing.

Kurakhove Sector: Over the last day in this district Russia conducted 57 offensive actions in the vicinity of Novodmytrivka, Zorya, Sontsivka, Berestky, Kurakhove, Dalnje, Hannivka, Romanivka and Yelyzavetivka. 7 engagements are ongoing.

Vremivka Sector: Russian forces made 14 attempts to break through Ukrainian defences in the vicinity of Novosilka, Makarivka and Trudove. 2 engagements are ongoing.

Orikhiv Sector: In this sector, over the last day, there has been no significant change in the combat environment.

The Odesa operational-strategic group

(Responsible for Kherson, Qırım, (also known as Crimea) and the Black Sea.)

Prydniprovsk Sector: In this sector, over the last day, there has been no significant change in the combat environment. Russian forces made 4 unsuccessful attempts to dislodge Ukrainian units from their positions on the left bank of the Dnipro.

TEMPORARILY OCCUPIED TERRITORIES

Nothing major to report.

THE HOME FRONT

Russian drones, missiles attack Ukraine's east, south and capital

Russian missiles damaged residential buildings in Ukraine's eastern city of Kharkiv and Odesa in the south, and a blizzard of drones caused temporary power cuts in Mykolaiv region and targeted the capital Kyiv, Ukrainian officials said on Monday.

Russia, which is making territorial gains in Ukraine's east, is conducting nightly attacks on faraway cities using missiles as well as cheaply produced "suicide" drones and low-cost "decoy" drones, which tie up Ukrainian air defences.

Of 145 drones used overnight, Ukraine shot down 71 and lost track of 71 more, likely due to electronic warfare measures used against them, the air force said.

Residents of the capital could hear the buzzing engines of attack drones flying over the city for several hours overnight. The sound of automatic gunfire erupted occasionally as air defences tried to shoot them down.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy called on Kyiv's Western allies to step up pressure on Russia to prevent the components needed for the weapons systems reaching it.

"These Russian attacks on Ukrainian life can be stopped," he said. "With pressure, sanctions, blocking the occupiers' access to the components they use to create the tools of this terror, arms packages for Ukraine, and a resolve that must be unwavering." Zelenskyy said.

A Russian missile attack on the northeastern city of Kharkiv injured at least 23 people and damaged over 40 buildings on Monday morning, the regional governor and national police said.

Another missile attack on the southern city of Odesa also damaged residential buildings and injured 10 people, Ukraine's interior ministry said.

The overnight drone attack targeted energy infrastructure in southern region of Mykolaiv, causing power cuts while industrial facilities in the southeastern Zaporizhzhia region were also struck, their authorities said on Monday.

Russia has continuously pummelled Ukraine's power grid and infrastructure since launching its full-scale invasion in February 2022. Moscow says it does not target civilians but the U.N. has verified the deaths of almost 12,000 Ukrainian civilians and officials in Kyiv say the total is likely much higher.

The latest Russian onslaught on energy infrastructure renewed Ukrainians' fears of long winter blackouts, although there were no casualties or significant damage reported in either Kyiv or the surrounding region.

Russia attacked Ukraine with over 800 KAB bombs, 460 drones, 20 missiles this week

Over the past week, Russia has launched over 800 KAB-guided aerial bombs, nearly 460 attack drones, and more than 20 missiles, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on Nov. 24. The Kyiv Independent reports.

“The air raid siren has sounded almost daily across Ukraine this week. Only last night, our air defence forces managed to shoot down about 50 attack drones,” Zelenskyy wrote on Telegram, sharing a video showing Russian attacks across the country.

On the morning of Nov. 21, Russia unveiled a new intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM), dubbed "Oreshnik," in an attack targeting the city of Dnipro in eastern Ukraine.

“Ukraine is not a testing ground for weapons. Ukraine is a sovereign, independent state. Yet Russia persists in its attempts to destroy our people, spread fear and panic, and weaken us,” Zelenskyy said.

He also reiterated the urgent need for bolstered air defences. “Ukraine needs more air defence systems, and we are working on this with our partners. It is crucial to strengthen the protection of our sky,” he said.

On Nov. 22, Zelenskyy instructed Defense Minister Rustem Umerov to engage with international allies to acquire advanced air defence capabilities.

The IRBM attack followed Ukraine’s reported first successful strike on a military target within Russian territory using U.S.-supplied ATACMS missiles.

Unlike cruise missiles, IRBMs are guided only in the initial phase of launch, making them less precise. However, their exceptional speed — often exceeding 3,200 kilometres per hour as they near their targets — makes them a formidable threat.

Ukraine's top energy company to receive $112 million from EU, US to restore facilities.

DTEK, Ukraine's largest private energy company, will receive $112 million from the EU and the U.S. to restore facilities damaged in Russian attacks and prepare them for winter, the company said on Nov. 25.

Russian attacks destroyed 90% of DTEK's generation capacity during an aerial campaign in the spring and summer earlier this year, which aimed to knock out Ukraine's power grid.

Moscow's forces launched another massive attack on Nov. 17, again targeting DTEK's power plants.

The U.S. government is providing $46.1 million to purchase control systems and dozens of new transformers, while the European Commission pledged 62.8 million euros ($66 million) to restore 1.8GW of generating capacity and to protect power plant equipment from elements during the winter. The Kyiv Independent reports.

"The work will ensure a stable and reliable energy supply to more than 2 million Ukrainians," the company said in a press release.

"The United States is proud to support Ukraine's energy resilience with this critical aid package," said Geoffrey Pyatt, the assistant secretary of state for energy resources.

"By providing $46.1 million for control systems and new transformers, we are helping to rebuild and fortify Ukraine's energy infrastructure against Russia’s unprovoked attacks."

DTEK's CEO, Maksym Timchenko, said the company is "deeply grateful for the unwavering support of the United States and the European Commission, and the leadership of the Ministry of Energy in delivering this vital aid."

In turn, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), one of Ukraine's largest institutional investors, said it would not provide funds to DTEK due to its ownership by oligarch Rinat Akhmetov.
"The objective of freeing the economy from the influence of oligarchs is absolutely fundamental," EBRD President Odile Renaud-Basso said, according to the Italian publication Corriere della Sera.
Akhmetov is Ukraine's wealthiest man, with vast holdings in mining and metallurgy. Formerly a lawmaker of the pro-Russian Party of Regions, the business tycoon saw a large part of his assets lost during Russia's invasion.

RUSSIAN WORLD

Russia allegedly removes commander in Ukraine for misleading reports

Russia has removed a senior general in Ukraine for giving misleading reports about the progress of the war as Defence Minister Andrei Belousov tries to clear out poor commanders, pro-Russian war bloggers and Russian media said. Reuters reports.

Ahead of winter, Russian forces advanced at the fastest rate in Ukraine since the start of the 2022 invasion, though progress was much slower in some areas - particularly around Siversk in the eastern region of Donetsk.

Russian media cited unidentified sources as saying that Colonel General Gennady Anashkin, the commander of the Southern Grouping, had been removed from his command, though there was no official confirmation.

Russian war bloggers have long complained about the command of the operation around Siversk where they said poorly supported Russian units were thrown into deadly battles for little apparent tactical gain.

"Only the lazy did not write about the problems there: overall, it took the system about two months to react properly," Rybar, a respected pro-Russian blogger said on Telegram.
"Anashkin, was removed from office for false reports in the Seversk direction," Rybar said, using the Russian version of the place name. One war correspondent for Russian state television also said Anashkin had been removed from his command.

The Russian Defence Ministry did not respond to a request for comment. Reuters, which was unable to verify the reports, could not reach Anashkin for comment due to the security situation inside Russia.

If Russia could take control of the Siversk area, it could then push towards Kramatorsk - a major city in the region.

RBC cited an unidentified Defence Ministry source as saying that Anashkin had been moved as part of a "planned rotation" of personnel.

In his reports on the change of command, prominent pro-Russian war blogger Yuri Podolyaka quoted Belousov as saying that "you can make mistakes but you cannot lie".

Putin Offers $4K Signing Bonuses to National Guard Recruits

Russian President Vladimir Putin on Monday extended a 400,000-ruble ($3,800) sign-on bonus, previously offered to new military recruits, to National Guard personnel enlisting for service in Ukraine.

The bonuses are available to those who sign contracts with the National Guard for at least one year between Aug. 1 and Dec. 31, 2024, according to Putin’s decree. However, cadets enrolled in the National Guard or Defense Ministry training programs are not eligible.

Putin’s directive updates a July order that first introduced the payments as part of efforts to address troop shortages. In addition to federal incentives, many Russian regions offer supplemental financial bonuses, which have increased over time as enlistment rates have declined.

The National Guard, known as Rosgvardia, is Russia’s internal security force responsible for public safety, law enforcement and maintaining order in Ukrainian territories occupied by Russian troops. The force also protects critical infrastructure, including nuclear facilities and secures transportation routes.

“Rosgvardia units play a special role in ensuring the protection of important infrastructure and transportation communications,” the force’s website states.

Hundreds of Houthi rebels fighting for Russia

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a US based think tank, in its Nov 24 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment reported that Russia reportedly recruited hundreds of Yemeni nationals to fight in the Russian military amid growing cooperation between Russia, Iran, and Iran-backed Houthi movement. Financial Times (FT) reported on Nov 24 that Houthi-affiliated intermediaries recruited "hundreds" of Yemeni men beginning as early as July 2024 to travel to Russia after promising them lucrative jobs in the "security" and "engineering" fields and eventual Russian citizenship. Russian authorities reportedly instead forcibly conscripted the largely inexperienced recruits into the Russian army and sent them to fight in the war upon their arrival in Russia. FT also highlighted growing ties between the Kremlin and the Houthis, citing US Special Envoy for Yemen Tim Lenderking, who confirmed that Russia is actively engaging with the Houthis and discussing weapons transfers.

ISW has assessed that the Kremlin has in part sought to offset heavy battlefield losses and personnel shortages by enlisting migrants and foreign nationals while avoiding another partial involuntary reserve callup in Russia. ISW also observed growing engagement between Kremlin officials and Houthis amid enhanced Russia-Iran cooperation and Iranian support for the Russian war effort in Ukraine.

INTERNATIONAL NEWS

UK targets 30 tankers in its largest sanctions package against Russia's 'shadow fleet'

The United Kingdom sanctioned 30 oil tankers of Russia's "shadow fleet" that carried billions of dollars worth of oil and oil products last year, the government said on Nov. 25.

"Oil revenues are a crucial source of funding for the Kremlin’s illegal war in Ukraine," the Foreign Office said in a statement.

Largest UK package of sanctions against the shadow fleet targets 30 ships
Insurance companies enabling the fleet are also sanctioned, ratcheting up pressure on Russia
Comes after the world marked 1000 days since the Kremlin’s egregious full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

The latest sanctions follow Moscow’s efforts to evade the West's attempts to stifle its oil revenues through the $60-per-barrel price cap imposed two years ago.

"Constraining these revenues, including by cracking down on the companies that insure these vessels, is vital for maintaining our shared security: degrading the Kremlin’s war machine, clearing our shipping lanes of unsafe traffic, and protecting our international trade to make room for growth.” the statement added.

The sanctions expand the number of U.K.-sanctioned Russian vessels to 73, the biggest batch of sanctioned ships by a single Western country. The EU and U.S. have also targeted Russia's shadow fleet in previous rounds of sanctions, applying restrictions to individual tankers and shipping services.

Russia has invested $10 billion to expand its shadow fleet since 2022, according to the Kyiv School of Economics (KSE) Insititute. The fleet consists of old and poorly insured tankers that carried two-thirds of Russia's seaborne crude oil exports last year, the report showed.

MILITARY & TECH

Ukraine developing guided aerial bombs domestically.

Ukraine is actively working on developing its own guided aerial bombs, the Kyiv Independent reported on Nov 24, citing Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Anatolii Barhylevych.

"We are actively working on it. I think we will achieve such success," he said Barhylevych pointed out that Russia holds the largest stockpile of aerial bombs inherited from the Soviet Union.

Guided aerial bombs are precision-guided munitions that have a shorter range than missiles but are far cheaper to produce.

When launched from aircraft within Russian territory or Russian-occupied territories, they are beyond the reach of Ukrainian air defence.

Defense Minister Rustem Umerov said on Oct. 21 that Ukraine has invested more than $4 billion in its defence production and urged international partners to invest further, recalling the recent successes of Ukrainian specialists in drone manufacturing.

Sweden Discloses How Many Gripens Its Spare Parts Package Could Maintain for Ukraine

The Swedish defense minister made a statement potentially pointing to the number of combat jets the Ukrainian Air Force will operate. Defense Express reports.

Aircraft spare parts Sweden had acquired as part of Ukraine aid package is for maintenance of 14 JAS 39 Gripen multirole fighters. The details of the acquisition made this September were disclosed by Swedish Minister of Defense Pål Jonson at a joint press conference with his Ukrainian counterpart Rustem Umierov on November 22nd, Janes reports.

"There were spares for up to 14 [Gripen] platforms in the last package," Jonson said referring to the SEK 4.6 billion (USD ~415 mln) military assistance provision allocated September 9th by the government of Sweden.

The provision was part of Stockholm's "efforts to establish conditions for a possible future support of JAS 39 Gripen fighters to Ukraine," reads the official notice from the defense department, and amounted to half of the value of this package. By acquiring new spares some of the JAS 39C/D jets could be saved from dismantling and considered for transfer to Ukraine in the future.

However, Pål Jonson re-emphasized that the ongoing deployment of American F-16 Fighting Falcons and associated infrastructure in the Ukrainian Air Force currently remains the top priority for the "fighter jet coalition" which includes Belgium, Denmark, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Hence the prospect of sending Swedish Gripens to Ukraine is put on hold for now.

"It is not in the hands of ourselves, but on export licenses and other partners in the fighter coalition who are waiting to donate the Gripen until they have gone further with the F-16," Jonson said.

On a note from Defense Express, the detail about 14 kits of spares could account for several explanations: one is that 14 is the number of JAS 39 Gripen aircraft Stockholm is considering for transfer, and the second is related to Sweden's capacity also to maintain this many jets. Considering the fleets of the country's previous customers, with 14 Gripens operated by Hungary, and 14 by the Czech Republic, the upkeep of such a squadron seems like a standard export practice.

Notably, Pål Jonson provided no updates regarding the planned delivery of Saab 340 (ACS890) aerial early warning and control aircraft which is essential to realize the full potential of Western-type multirole fighter aircraft by providing accurate target data. Sweden has committed to supplying two Saab 340s to Ukraine in May 2024.

Earlier Defense Express pointed out that the standard training course on this AEW&C system lasts about 7 to 8 months, implying that the new asset could reach operating capability by the end of 2024.

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