THE RUSSO-UKRAINE WAR BRIEF
For: 25-01-07
Slava Ukraini! In early 2022 I began a Telegram channel aggregating news from a number of sources daily on the war in Ukraine. In June 2023 I began providing a daily draft for the Ukraine War Brief Podcast collecting news from over 70 sources daily, which formed the basis of the script. While the Podcast no longer exists I have continued to make this Brief available for my followers here on Substack for those who wish to keep up with the news from the war.
All the latest news on the Russo-Ukraine War 6 days per week
ALONG THE CONTACT LINE
GSAFU Morning Report
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in its Operational Information update at 08:00 on Jan 7 stated that day 1049 of the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation against Ukraine had begun.
The situation on the line of combat remains tense in some sectors. Ukrainian defenders continue to actively counteract the Russian aggressor, causing them losses in personnel equipment and technology. Exhausting the enemy along the entire front line and continuing to disrupt the plans of Russian occupiers to advance deeper into the territory of Ukraine.
During the past day, 218 combat engagements took place. Over the past 24 hours, the enemy carried out missile strikes, 64 air strikes, used more than 2,700 drones and more than 5000 artillery strikes across the positions of Ukrainian forces and civilians.
Air Force Daily Report
28 ENEMY UAVS SHOT, 10 DRONES FAILED TO REACH THEIR TARGETS (LOCATIONALLY LOST)
➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖
On the night of January 7, 2025 (from 19:30 on January 6), the enemy attacked with 38 Shahed attack UAVs and simulator drones of various types from the directions of Millerovo, Kursk, Primorsko-Akhtarsk - Russia.
The air attack was repelled by aviation, anti-aircraft missile troops, electronic warfare units, mobile fire groups of the Air Force and Defense Forces of Ukraine.
As of 09:00, the shooting down of 28 Shahed attack UAVs and drones of other types in Poltava, Sumy, Kharkiv, Cherkasy, Mykolaiv, Kherson and Kirovohrad regions was confirmed. No hits were recorded.
10 enemy drones-simulators — lost in location (without negative consequences), three of them flew in the direction of Russia.
Ukrainian F-16 pilot breaks record.
The Ukrainian Air Force has reported that on a single night in Dec 2024 a Ukrainian F-16 pilot shot down 6 enemy missiles.
During a massive missile and drone attack in December 2024, this Ukrainian pilot did the incredible! For the first time in the history of the Fighting Falcon, an F-16 fighter jet destroyed six enemy cruise missiles in one combat mission!
The F-16 was armed typically with 2 medium range and 2 short range missiles along with a 20mm cannon as a backup.
The F-16s powerful targeting radar is immune to the EW defences that Russian cruise missiles carry as a result it is quite successful acquiring targets once in range.
The pilot was vectored in on his first targets and took them out with the medium range missiles at distance, he then closed the difference and successfully took out two more with his short range missiles.
Seeing that he still had sufficient fuel he asked to vectored in on another target and once in range opened fire with his 20mm vulcan cannon - something he had only trained with in a simulator, no easy task as the missiles were travelling at 650 kph and capable of evasive maneuvers. The pilot was surprisingly rewarded with two explosions in quick succession as it turns out there were two Russian missiles flying in tandem.
The Ukrainian Air Force was later able to visually confirm that the pilot had indeed downed 6 enemy missiles - two of them with cannon.
The Russian Border Incursion
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a US based think tank, in its Jan 6 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment reported that Ukrainian forces recently made tactical advances amid continued intensified offensive operations in the Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast on Jan 6. Geolocated footage published on Jan 5 and 6 indicates that Ukrainian forces recently advanced in southern Berdin, central Russkoye Porechnoye, and central Novosotnitsky (all northeast of Sudzha).
The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) and Russian milbloggers claimed on January 6 that Russian forces repelled a Ukrainian roughly reduced platoon-sized mechanized assault near Berdin and that Russian forces, including elements of Rosgvardia's "Talib" Group, repelled Ukrainian attacks near Novosotnitsky. Russian milbloggers claimed that elements of the Russian 30th Motorized Rifle Regiment (72nd Motorized Rifle Division, 44th Army Corps [AC], Leningrad Military District [LMD]), 2nd Spetsnaz Brigade (Russian General Staff's Main Directorate [GRU]), 11th Airborne (VDV) Brigade, and Akhmat Spetsnaz units cleared areas near Berdin and Novosotnitsky. One Russian milblogger characterized recent Ukrainian attacks in Kursk Oblast as enhanced reconnaissance in force operations that could be a diversionary effort for unspecified future operations.
Increased Ukrainian offensive operations in Kursk Oblast may be the beginning stages of a concerted Ukrainian operation in Kursk Oblast or elsewhere in the theater, though ISW is unprepared to offer any specific forecast.
Russian forces attempted to leverage Ukrainian attacks northeast of Sudzha to attack elsewhere in the Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast on Jan 6. Geolocated footage published on Jan 5 indicates that Russian forces advanced west of Malaya Loknya (northwest of Sudzha). Russian milbloggers claimed on Jan 6 that Russian forces, including elements of the 56th VDV Regiment (7th VDV Division), seized Leonidovo (northwest of Sudzha) and that Russian forces advanced in northeastern Russkoye Porechnoye (northeast of Sudzha).
Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces also advanced near Makhnovka and Dmitryukov (both southeast of Sudzha). ISW has not observed confirmation of these claims, however. Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces, including elements of the 155th Naval Infantry Brigade (Pacific Fleet, Eastern Military District [EMD]), attacked toward Malaya Loknya and near Novoivanovka, Viktorovka, and Nikolskiy (all northwest of Sudzha). The Russian MoD claimed that "Caspian naval infantry" drone units, likely referring to drone units of the 177th Naval Infantry Regiment (Caspian Flotilla), are operating in Kursk Oblast, indicating that the Russian military command likely redeployed elements of the 177th Naval Infantry Regiment from western Zaporizhia Oblast to Kursk Oblast.
Russian sources continue to worry over Ukraines successful employment of combined arms tactics in Kursk.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a US based think tank, in its Jan 6 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment reported that Ukrainian forces may be continuing to conduct long-range strikes against Russian rear areas in Kursk Oblast as part of efforts to use integrated strike capabilities to support ground operations. Geolocated footage published on January 5 indicates that there were audible explosions near the Russian 3754th Central Aviation Technical Base (military unit 13830) in Kursk City. ISW cannot independently confirm if Ukrainian forces successfully struck the base.
A Russian milblogger claimed on Jan 6 that Ukrainian forces targeted Russian forward and rear positions in Kursk Oblast with missiles several times. The Russian Kursk Oblast Operational Headquarters claimed on Jan 6 that Russian forces destroyed two Ukrainian missiles over Kursk Oblast. ISW previously assessed that Ukrainian forces may be attempting to integrate longer-range precision strike capabilities and electronic warfare (EW) systems activity to support ground operations.
Ukrainian forces in Kursk Oblast fend off almost 100 Russian assaults in a day.
Ukrainian forces repelled 94 Russian ground assaults in Russia's Kursk Oblast over the past day, the General Staff of Ukraine's Armed Forces reported on Jan 7 amid escalating hostilities in the region.
This represents nearly half of the skirmishes over the past day, as the military reported 218 clashes across the front.
On Jan. 5, Ukraine launched renewed offensive operations in the Russian region, which is seen as crucial for any possible peace negotiations.
The Russian Defense Ministry alleged on Jan. 6 that the Ukrainian advance was halted and that Ukraine's primary units were destroyed near Berdin, a settlement along a road leading northeast to the city of Kursk. Ukraine has not commented on the claims and provided limited information on the operation.
In the meantime, Russian forces reportedly took advantage of Ukrainian activity to attack elsewhere in the Kursk Oblast salient, apparently advancing west of Malaya Loknya, according to the ISW.
Ukraine hits Russia's infantry brigade command post in Kursk Oblast.
Ukrainian soldiers struck on Jan 7 the command post of Russia's 810th Guards Naval Infantry Brigade near the village of Belaya in Russia's Kursk Oblast,The Kyiv Independent reported citing Ukraine's General Staff.
The report came days after Ukraine reportedly launched renewed offensive operations in Kursk Oblast, which is seen as a crucial bargaining chip for potential peace negotiations. Almost 100 Russian ground assaults were repelled in Kursk Oblast over the past day, the General Staff said.
"Such fire damage is an integral part of combat operations of Ukraine's Defense Forces units, which are engaged in combat operations on the territory of the Russian Federation," the statement read.
No further details on the attack and the extent of the damage were disclosed. The Russian military has not commented on Ukraine's claim.
Another Russian command post came under Ukraine's attack in Maryino, Kursk Oblast, on Jan 2, according to the military.
The Russian Defense Ministry alleged on Jan 6 that the Ukrainian advance was halted and that Ukraine's primary units were destroyed near Berdin, a settlement along a road leading northeast to the city of Kursk.
The Khortytsia operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the northeastern part of Ukraine. )
Toretsk Sector: Russian forces advanced marginally in and around Toretsk and now control most of the city.
The Tavria operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the central-eastern and southeastern part of Ukraine.)
Pokrovsk Sector : In this sector over the previous day more than 40 combat engagements took place with Russian forces advancing marginally northeast of Vovkove towards Pokrovsk.
Kurakhove Sector: In the last day there were 25 combat engagements in this sector, Russian forces advanced marginally in and around Petropavlivka.
The Odesa operational-strategic group
(Responsible for Kherson, Qırım, (also known as Crimea) and the Black Sea.)
Ukrainian sea drone-launched FPV drones hit Russian air defenses in world first
For the first time, Ukrainian first-person-view (FPV) drones using a naval drone as a springboard took out three Russian air defense systems, Ukraine’s Centre for Strategic Communication and Information Security reported on Jan. 7.
"Only a week after Ukrainian sea drones made history by successfully taking down Russian helicopters, another historical first as our homegrown naval drones are now launching their own FPV drones, destroying Russia's air defense units," the government agency said on social media.
As a result of the attack on Jan. 6, two Russian anti-missile Pantsir-S1 systems and one OSA anti-aircraft vehicle were reportedly damaged or destroyed in the occupied part of Ukraine's southern Kherson Oblast.
The strikes were carried out by Ukraine's Navy, which released a video of the attack against one of the Pantsir systems. The Kyiv Independent could not establish the extent of damage dealt to Russian air defenses.
A Pantsir S-1 has an estimated price tag of around $15 million. One such system is suspected to be behind the mistaken downing of an Azerbaijani plane on Dec. 25, according to the media.
The attack came a week after Ukrainian Magura V5 naval drones hit three Russian Mi-8 helicopters, downing two of them over the Black Sea in another strike that was also the first of its kind.
President Volodymyr Zelensky issued a decree in February ordering the creation of a separate branch of the Armed Forces for drones, called Unmanned Systems Forces, to command the rapidly evolving drone warfare in Russia’s war against Ukraine.
Cheaper to operate and more precise than most artillery systems, drones quickly became one of the main tools for Ukraine to fend off Russia’s assaults amid chronic artillery ammunition shortages.
TEMPORARILY OCCUPIED TERRITORIES
Nothing major to report.
THE HOME FRONT
Russians and Belarusians fighting in AFU to be extended temporary Ukrainian citizenship certificates.
The Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine has granted the possibility to extend the validity of a temporary certificate of Ukrainian citizenship for citizens of Russia and Belarus who are fighting for Ukraine, Censor.NET reports.
This was announced by the government's representative in the Verkhovna Rada Taras Melnychuk on his telegram channel.
This decision became possible due to the adoption of amendments to the legislation, according to which foreigners and stateless persons participating in the defense of the territorial integrity of Ukraine can extend the validity of their certificates.
Melnychuk noted that the amendments were introduced for those who acquired Ukrainian citizenship after February 24, 2022, and pledged to terminate their foreign citizenship, but the deadline for fulfilling this obligation has already expired.
The extension of the temporary certificate requires a corresponding note on the extension of its validity in the documents issued by the State Migration Service, diplomatic missions and consulates of Ukraine.
Additionally, it is known that the Russian Volunteer Corps (RVC) and the Kalinoŭski Regiment, formed of Russians and Belarusians, are actively involved in combat operations on the side of Ukraine against Russian aggression, and their members are also subject to this decision.
RUSSIAN WORLD
Azerbaijan Rejects Russia's Request to Investigate Embraer 190 Downing.
Azerbaijan's official position on the investigation of the crash of the passenger Embraer 190 airliner was as tough and straightforward as possible. It is known that Embraer 190 was flying from Baku to Grozny on December 25, and was shot down, apparently, by a Pantsir SAM system. Defense Express reports.
The president of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev has stated that the plane was shot at from the ground. On Monday, January 6, during a meeting with the families of the crew members who died while saving the passengers, he directly accused Russia of this crime.
In particular, Azerbaijan managed to have the "black boxes" transferred to Brazil, the country of origin of the Embraer 190 aircraft. Thus, Baku did not allow Russia to study them. Although the Kremlin has been promoting its intention to conduct the investigation under the auspices of the Interstate Aviation Committee, headquartered in Moscow, whose members include most of the former Soviet republics.
At the same time, Baku accused the Interstate Aviation Committee of bias and raised a question: why the closure of the airspace over Grozny was announced after the shooting of the Azerbaijani plane. The president of Azerbaijan stated that this "points to very serious issues with the evidence of the crime", and "attempts by russian state structures to hush up this incident and insist on absurd versions cause us both surprise, regret and outright indignation".
Aliyev also reiterated the key findings of the preliminary investigation: the plane was affected by Russian electronic warfare, after which it was damaged by fire from the ground. There is another question of why the plane was sent to Aktau in Kazakhstan, 440 kilometers from Grozny across the Caspian Sea. The answer to this question should be obtained from the flight recorders.
Moreover, Azerbaijan is demanding that the perpetrators, namely Russian citizens, be punished. Moreover, the circle of culprits has already been outlined: the ground services and the Russian military.
INTERNATIONAL NEWS
Trump's Ukraine envoy postpones Kyiv trip until after inauguration.
U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's incoming Ukraine envoy has postponed a fact-finding trip to Kyiv and other European capitals until after Trump's inauguration on Jan. 20, according to four sources with knowledge of the trip's planning. Reuters reported on Jan 6.
Retired Lieutenant-General Keith Kellogg, who is set to serve as Trump's special envoy for Ukraine and Russia, had initially planned a mission to Kyiv to meet with Ukrainian leaders in early January, Reuters reported last month. His team was also setting up meetings with officials in other European capitals, including Rome and Paris.
But the trip, which would have marked the first time incoming Trump administration officials headed to Kyiv since the Nov. 5 election, has been pushed back, said the sources, who requested anonymity to discuss private matters.
Kellogg is now expected to travel to Ukraine after Trump takes office, though no date has been set, the sources said.
It was not immediately clear why Kellogg was delaying the trip.
Trump repeatedly said on the campaign trail that he could solve the war in Ukraine within 24 hours of taking office, but he has made little progress toward that end. Still, attempting to quickly wind down the conflict remains a key priority of his incoming administration.
Neither Kellogg nor a representative for the Ukrainian embassy in Washington immediately responded to requests for comment.
Baltic Sea Telecoms Cables Repaired After Suspected Sabotage.
Two telecoms cables connecting Estonia and Finland under the Baltic Sea have been repaired after suspected sabotage, Finnish operator Elisa said on Monday. The Moscow Times reports.
Finnish authorities are investigating the suspected sabotage of four telecoms cables and one power cable on Dec. 25 just weeks after other cables in the region were severed.
Experts and politicians have said recent actions targeting vital infrastructure are part of a hybrid war between Russia and Western countries.
"The repairs took place today," Elisa's security chief Jaakko Wallenius told AFP, adding that the cables seemed to have been severed by an anchor.
Investigators suspect an oil tanker named Eagle S of the sabotage, accusing the vessel of transporting Russian oil products that are embargoed over Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
"There is compelling evidence of the Eagle S at the site," Wallenius said, though he added it was up to law enforcement to determine who was responsible.
Flying the flag of the Cook Islands, the Eagle S is now off the coast of Porkkala around 30 kilometers south of Helsinki, and eight of its sailors have been banned from leaving Finnish territory. The ship has been seized by the Finnish Coast Guard.
The power cable damaged on Dec. 25, the Estlink 2, has not yet been repaired. One of the telecoms cables — running between Finland and Germany — should be fixed by Jan. 10, according to operator Cinia. There was no information about the final cable affected by the incident, operated by CITIC between Tallinn and Helsinki.
MILITARY & TECH
Russia is forced to redeploy units from other frontlines to reinforce Kursk region.
The Russian occupation forces are forced to transfer their units to the Kursk region to strengthen the group. Ukrinform reported citing Ukrainian National Guard spokesman Ruslan Muzychuk.
“What we are seeing now has an effect not only in the north of Kharkiv region, on the enemy's activity along the border with Sumy region, but also in other areas of the front. Because the enemy is forced to pull its units from the southern directions and from other directions to strengthen the group in the Kursk region,” he said.
According to Muzychuk, the Kursk operation of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and other units is aimed at creating unfavorable conditions for the enemy forces deployed in this area and disrupting its logistics.
“The activity of our Armed Forces is aimed at holding this area, this initiative. As for the enemy's activity, in particular in the north of Kharkiv region, or the activity of its sabotage and reconnaissance groups, in general, this trend has decreased in those parts of the border where our units together with the State Border Guard Service are performing tasks,” the spokesman added.
That’s it for today’s Brief folks if you would like to keep up with events in Ukraine daily please consider subscribing.