THE RUSSO-UKRAINE WAR BRIEF
For: 2024-11-16
Slava Ukraini! In early 2022 I began a Telegram channel aggregating news from a number of sources daily on the war in Ukraine. In June 2023 I began providing a daily draft for the Ukraine War Brief Podcast collecting news from over 70 sources daily, much of which formed the basis of the script. While the Podcast no longer exists I have continued to make this Brief available both on my own Substack and The People’s Media for those who wish to keep up with events on a daily basis.
All the latest news on the Russo-Ukraine War 6 days per week
ALONG THE CONTACT LINE
GSAFU Morning Report
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in its Operational Information update at 22:00 on Nov 15 stated that day 996 of the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation against Ukraine was about to begin.
During the past day, 157 combat engagements took place. Over the past 24 hours, the enemy carried out 1 missile strike, 42 air strikes, 689 drone strikes and more 3,800 than artillery strikes across the positions of Ukrainian forces.
At the same time, Ukrainian soldiers continue to inflict losses in manpower and equipment on the occupying troops, exhausting the enemy along the entire front line and continue to disrupt the plans of Russian occupiers to advance deep into the territory of Ukraine.
Air Force Daily Report
On the night of November 16, 2024 (from 8:30 p.m. on November 15), the enemy attacked the Kharkiv region with an anti-aircraft guided missile S-300, attacked 83 strike UAVs of the "Shahed" type and unmanned aerial vehicles of an unknown type from the Kursk, Orel, Primorsko-Akhtarsk regions - Russian Federation .
As of 08:30, the shooting down of 53 enemy UAVs in Cherkasy, Odesa, Kyiv, Zhytomyr, Sumy, Mykolaiv, Kirovohrad, Dnipropetrovsk, Poltava, Zaporizhia, Kharkiv and Khmelnytskyi regions was confirmed.
As a result of active countermeasures by the Defense Forces, 30 enemy UAVs were lost in various regions of Ukraine
The Russian Border Incursion
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a US based think tank, in its Nov 15 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment reported that Ukrainian forces recently advanced southeast of Korenevo amid continued fighting along the main Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast on Nov 15. Geolocated footage published on Nov 15 shows that Ukrainian forces recently marginally advanced within eastern Novoivanovka (southeast of Korenevo).
A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces advanced in forests near Malaya Loknya (north of Sudzha), Martynovka (northeast of Sudzha), and Olgovka (east of Korenevo), and another milblogger claimed that inclement weather is slowing both Ukrainian and Russian operations in the area.
Russian forces continued attacks along the main Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast, including near Darino (southeast of Korenevo), on Nov 14 and 15. Elements of the Russian 51st Airborne (VDV) Regiment (106th VDV Division) are reportedly operating near Darino, drone operators of the Russian "Alabiya" Group are reportedly operating in Sudzhansky Raion, and elements of the Russian 56th VDV Regiment (7th VDV Division) are reportedly operating in Kursk Oblast.
The Khortytsia operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the northeastern part of Ukraine. )
Kharkiv Sector: Over the last day Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 9 Russian attacks in the area of Vysoka Yaruha and Vovchansk. 2 engagements continue.
Kupyansk Sector: Russian Forces carried out 15 offensive actions against Ukrainian defensive positions near Kolisynivka and Kopanky.
Lyman Sector: Russian Forces carried out 16 offensive actions against Ukrainian defensive positions near Makiivka, Terny, Torske and Hyrhorivka.
Siversk Sector: Russian forces carried out 1 offensive action near Verkhnokamyanske.
Kramatorsk Sector: In this sector, over the last day, there has been no significant change in the combat environment.
Toretsk Sector: Russian forces carried out 10 offensive actions with air support near Dyliivka, Toretsk and Shcherbynivka.
The Tavria operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the central-eastern and southeastern part of Ukraine.)
Pokrovsk Sector : Russian forces carried out 35 offensive actions in the vicinity of Myrolyubivka, Promin, Lysivka, Petrivka and Pustynka. 1 engagement continues.
Kurakhove Sector: The main thrust of Russian forces over the last day was in this district 34 offensive actions took place in the vicinity of Novodmytrivka, Voznesenka, Novoselydivka, Berestky, Illinka, Dalnje and Antonivka. 20 engagements continue.
Vremivka Sector: Russian forces made 3 attempts to break through Ukrainian defences in the vicinity of Novodarivka, Rivnopil and Trudove.
Orikhiv Sector: In this sector, over the last day, there has been no significant change in the combat environment.
The Odesa operational-strategic group
(Responsible for Kherson, Qırım, (also known as Crimea) and the Black Sea.)
Prydniprovsk Sector: In this sector, over the last day, there has been no significant change in the combat environment. Russian forces made 5 unsuccessful attempts to dislodge Ukrainian units from their positions on the left bank of the Dnipro.
TEMPORARILY OCCUPIED TERRITORIES
Nothing major to report.
THE HOME FRONT
Ukraine, US to partner on developing small modular nuclear reactors for reconstruction.
The United States will partner with Ukraine to transition Ukraine's coal-fired plants to small modular nuclear reactors, and to use them to help decarbonize its steel industry, the countries announced on Nov. 16 at the U.N. Climate Change Conference in Baku, Azerbaijan. The Kyiv Independent reports.
Small modular reactors (SMR) are an emerging technology that allow for reactors to be transported and assembled on site.
The partnership will build a roadmap and provide technical support to "rebuild, modernize, and decarbonize Ukraine's steel industry with SMRs," according to a statement from the U.S. State Department.
It will also "facilitate the transition of Ukraine’s coal-fired power plants to secure and safe SMR nuclear power plants utilizing existing infrastructure and retraining the workforce," the statement read.
Another project announced at the conference, known as COP29, will build a pilot plant in Ukraine to demonstrate production of clean hydrogen and ammonia using simulated SMR technology.
Ukraine is expected to face a brutal energy crisis through its toughest winter since the start of the full-scale invasion after Russia took out capacity from half of its electricity generation sector in large-scale air strikes.
As Ukraine hurries to rebuild its devastated energy structure, many foreign partners are looking for ways to encourage greener and more sustainable energy solutions. Wind and solar projects are in high demand, although many of Ukraine's infrastructure projects are emergency solutions rather than part of a broader green strategy.
Following the occupation of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in 2022, the three nuclear plants remaining under government control provide around 60% of its power. However, Russia is eyeing attacks on Ukraine’s nuclear infrastructure, the Energy Ministry's press office told the Kyiv Independent last month.
The energy-intensive steel industry produced a tenth of Ukraine's pre-war GDP, but last year's production was less than a third of Ukraine's total 2021 steel production.
Energy blackouts are a major factor in the drop in production, alongside worker shortages, high electricity prices, and disrupted supply chains as a result of the full-scale invasion.
RUSSIAN WORLD
Ukrainian hackers expose contents of Russian general’s computer
Hackers from the Cyber Resistance and KibOrg groups managed to install a spy program on the personal computer of the commander of Russian troops in the Zaporizhia direction in 2023, Colonel General Alexander Romanchuk. The Moscow Times report.
Romanchuk, judging by the actions on his work computer, paid little attention to the situation in the direction entrusted to him, the Central Nervous System notes. He spent most of his working time looking at real estate ads, choosing cars, meeting girls and playing games, and after the release of the TV series "The Word of the Boy" he became its fan. On June 7, 2023, at the height of the Ukrainian counteroffensive in Zaporozhye, the general was studying car accessories and reading an article about himself on Wikipedia, without touching on issues of troop management.
Romanchuk's correspondence with Captain Roman Malyshev also shows that the general actively controlled information about himself in the media, demanding that critical "war correspondents" be "dealt with." It also turned out that the colonel general's son, Vladimir Romanchuk, although having a military education, does not participate in combat. Instead, in the summer of 2023, while fierce battles were taking place on the Zaporizhzhya front, he travelled abroad, visiting China and Kyrgyzstan, and cheerfully dancing to K-pop.
Russian Z-channels previously portrayed Romanchuk as a heroic general, notes the CNS. However, according to data obtained by the CNS, the command under Romanchuk did not take into account the losses in Zaporizhia at all. Statistics provided by Captain Vyacheslav Dondokov, head of the 42nd medical battalion of the Russian Federation, showed that only one medical group treated more than 1.1 thousand wounded per month. At least 11 such groups were operating in the Zaporizhia region at that time, which indicates serious losses among Russian troops - about 12 thousand wounded per month alone.
INTERNATIONAL NEWS
Polish Foreign Minister announces the "most important" negotiations regarding RF's war against Ukraine
Negotiations on the russian federation's war against Ukraine will be held in Warsaw next week. Poland announced a meeting in the "Weimar Triangle+" format. Ukranews reported citing the RMF24 news portal.
Polish Foreign Ministry, Radoslaw Sikorski noted, the meeting in the "Weimar Triangle +" [Poland, Germany, France] format will take place on Tuesday, November 19.
He specified that in addition to the heads of the foreign ministries of France, Poland and Germany, representatives of other important European countries are expected to meet. The Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine Andrii Sybiha and the new EU chief diplomat Kaja Kallas were also invited.
Democratic senators call for probe into Musk's Russia calls
Reports that billionaire Elon Musk has held multiple calls with Russian officials, including President Vladimir Putin, should be investigated by the Pentagon and law-enforcement agencies on national-security grounds, Reuters reported on Nov 15 citing a letter seen by Reuters on Friday from two senior Democratic senators.
Musk, who has been appointed to a senior government role by Republican President-elect Donald Trump, oversees billions of dollars in Pentagon and intelligence-community contracts as CEO of aerospace company SpaceX.
Senator Jeanne Shaheen, a senior Foreign Relations Committee member, and Senate Armed Services Committee chair Jack Reed told U.S. Attorney General Merrick Garland and the Pentagon's inspector general that Musk's involvement in those SpaceX programs should be probed for potential debarment and exclusion after reports as recent as October of his conversations with Russian officials. Debarment refers to exclusion from certain contracts and privileges.
"These relationships between a well-known U.S. adversary and Mr. Musk, a beneficiary of billions of dollars in U.S. government funding, pose serious questions regarding Mr. Musk's reliability as a government contractor and a clearance holder," the lawmakers said in a joint letter dated on Friday.
Several Democratic lawmakers have publicly called for a probe into Musk's communications with Moscow since a Wall Street Journal report last month on the alleged contact, but the letter to the U.S. officials who could launch such an investigation has not been previously reported.
The call by Shaheen and Reed for a federal probe is a longshot effort as Trump prepares to return to the White House with backing from Musk, who spent over $119 million on Trump's reelection campaign and was appointed co-head of the president-elect's forthcoming Department of Government Efficiency.
SpaceX, Musk and the Pentagon did not immediately respond to requests for comment. The Pentagon and Justice Department did not immediately respond to similar requests.
Russia cuts gas supplies to Austria
Russian gas giant Gazprom continued to pump steady volumes of gas to Europe via Ukraine on Saturday, but supplies to Austrian energy company OMV were halted hours after Vienna said Russia had given notice it would cut off flows. Reuters reports.
Russia, which before the Ukraine war was the biggest single supplier of natural gas to Europe, has lost almost all of its European customers as the EU tried to reduce its dependence and the Nord Stream gas pipeline to Germany was blown up in 2022.
Now one of the last main Russian gas routes to Europe - the Soviet-era Urengoy-Pomary-Uzhgorod pipeline via Ukraine - is due to shut down at the end of this year as Kyiv does not want to extend a five-year transit agreement which brings northern Siberian gas to Slovakia, the Czech Republic and Austria.
Austria said on Friday that Moscow had informed it that the gas would be shut off from Saturday following an arbitration award to OMV, Austria's biggest energy supplier, over unfulfilled Gazprom supplies to its German unit.
On Saturday, Austria's energy regulator E-Control said Gazprom's deliveries to OMV had stopped at 6 a.m. local time (0500 GMT), adding that prices and supplies to Austrian customers were steady.
OMV is seeking to recover the 230 million euro damages awarded during arbitration from Gazprom by off-setting the claim against invoices for deliveries to Austria - essentially stopping some payment for gas supplied via Ukraine.
Gazprom said it would send 42.4 million cubic metres of gas to Europe via Ukraine on Saturday, the same volume as on Friday.
Flows into Slovakia from Ukraine were stable but nominations for flows to Austria from Slovakia were around 16% below averages seen this month, data from transmission system operator Eustream showed.
OMV usually accounts for around 40% of Russian gas flows via Ukraine, or some 17 mcm per day.
Soviet and post-Soviet leaders spent half a century from the discovery of major Siberian gas deposits in the post-WW2 years building up an energy business which linked the Soviet Union, then Russia, and Germany, by far Europe's biggest economy.
At its peak, Russia was supplying 35% of Europe's gas but since the 2022 war, Gazprom's market share has been lost to Norway, the United States and Qatar.
G7 confirms pledge to impose severe costs on Russia for Ukraine invasion.
Leaders of the Group of Seven (G7) major democracies on Saturday reiterated a pledge to keep imposing severe costs on Russia for its invasion of Ukraine, through sanctions, export controls and other measures, and vowed to support Kyiv for as long as it takes. Reuters reported.
"Russia remains the sole obstacle to just and lasting peace," said a joint statement published on Saturday, adopted "in support of Kyiv as the thousandth day of Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine approaches."
Italy holds the 2024 rotating presidency of the G7, which also includes the United States, Canada, Japan, France, Germany and Britain.
"The G7 confirms its commitment to imposing severe costs on Russia through sanctions, export controls and other effective measures. We stand united with Ukraine," the statement added.
Abkhazia Leader Says Ready To Resign if Protesters Vacate Parliament
Russia-backed leader of Georgia's breakaway republic of Abkhazia announced Saturday that he is ready to resign after protesters stormed the regional parliament, opposing an investment deal with Russia. The Moscow Times reports.
Protests have erupted in recent days in the republic over the controversial Russian-Abkhazian investment agreement, which — if ratified by the local parliament — would offer various benefits to Russian investors in Abkhazia, including an eight-year tax and customs duty exemption.
"I am ready to call elections, to resign...and stand in elections. Let the people say who they will support," the leader of the separatist republic Aslan Bzhania said.
Bzhania said his condition was that the protesters who entered parliament and a presidential administration building next door should vacate the premises. "Those who took over the presidential administration should leave," he said.
The controversial treaty has been championed by Bzhania, who has spent the past two years advocating for the so-called “apartments bill.” It seeks to lift the region’s ban on foreign ownership of residential property, allowing Russians to purchase real estate on the Black Sea coast.
The bill's initial approval by parliamentary committees sparked a wave of protests in the region earlier this year, with opposition arguing that Russia's growing presence in the region would undermine local control.
The "apartments bill" was eventually withdrawn from the parliament in July.
Russia on Friday advised its citizens not to travel to Abkhazia, a traditional holiday destination for Russians.
MILITARY & TECH
Ukraine Receives First Czech 155-mm DITA Howitzers
Commander of the National Guard of Ukraine Oleksandr Pivnenko unveils photos of 155-mm DITA self-propelled howitzers. They were given to the artillerymen of the National Guard of Ukraine. Defense Express reports.
This is the first report of such self-propelled howitzers being delivered to the Defense Forces of Ukraine. This suggests that only nine months passed between ordering and receiving the DITA howitzers.
It is worth recalling that in February 2024, the Netherlands announced the order of the first batch of nine DITA howitzers for Ukraine. They are manufactured at the facilities of Excalibur Army Czech defence company.
It is also worth noting that in October this year, the Netherlands announced an additional order of DITA howitzers for Ukraine. That is, we can expect new deliveries of these howitzers for Ukrainian artillery in a few months.
As Defense Express, we would like to highlight the short delivery time in which the Ukrainian military received the first DITA howitzers. It can be compared to the fact that the French have managed to reduce the production cycle for CAESAR howitzers, which are also supplied to the Defense Forces of Ukraine, from 30 to 15 months.
In April 2025, the Ukrainian military is to receive the first German-made RCH 155 wheeled self-propelled artillery systems, which were launched in early 2023. This means that the interval between the start of production and expected delivery will exceed two years
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