THE RUSSO-UKRAINE WAR BRIEF
For: 25-01-22
Slava Ukraini! In early 2022 I began a Telegram channel aggregating news from a number of sources daily on the war in Ukraine. In June 2023 I began providing a daily draft for the Ukraine War Brief Podcast collecting news from over 70 sources daily, which formed the basis of the script. While the Podcast no longer exists I have continued to make this Brief available for my followers here on Substack for those who wish to keep up with the news from the war.
All the latest news on the Russo-Ukraine War 6 days per week
ALONG THE CONTACT LINE
GSAFU Morning Report
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in its Operational Information update at 08:00 on Jan 22 stated that day 1064 of the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation against Ukraine had begun.
The situation on the line of combat remains tense in some sectors. Ukrainian defenders continue to actively counteract the Russian aggressor, causing them losses in personnel equipment and technology. Exhausting the enemy along the entire front line and continuing to disrupt the plans of Russian occupiers to advance deeper into the territory of Ukraine.
During the past day, 121 combat engagements took place.
Over the past 24 hours, the enemy carried out 2 missile strikes, 70 air strikes, used 2,899 drones and approximately 6,000 artillery strikes across the positions of Ukrainian forces and civilians.
Air Force Daily Report
65 ENEMY UAVS SHOT DOWN, 30 DRONES FAILED TO REACH THEIR TARGETS (LOST IN LOCATION)
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On the night of January 22, 2025 (from 19:00 on January 21), the enemy attacked with 99 attack UAVs of the "Shahed" type and simulator drones of various types from the directions: Chauda - TOT Crimea, Millerovo, Bryansk, Kursk, Orel, Primorsko-Akhtarsk - Russia.
The air attack was repelled by anti-aircraft missile troops, electronic warfare units, and mobile fire groups of the Air Force and Defense Forces of Ukraine.
As of 10:00, it has been confirmed that 65 Shahed attack UAVs and drones of other types have been shot down in Poltava, Sumy, Kharkiv, Cherkasy, Chernihiv, Kyiv, Khmelnytskyi, Dnipropetrovsk, Mykolaiv, and Odessa regions.
30 enemy drone simulators were lost in location (without negative consequences).
As a result of the night enemy attack, institutions, industrial enterprises, outbuildings, private and apartment buildings in Mykolaiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kyiv, Cherkasy, Sumy and Khmelnytskyi regions were damaged. Special services are eliminating the consequences, initially without casualties, and assistance is being provided to the victims.
Combat Operations in the Russian Federation
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a US based think tank, in its Jan 21 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment reported that Russian forces recently advanced in the Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast amid continued fighting in the area on January 21. Geolocated footage published on January 20 indicates that Russian forces recently advanced to the western outskirts of Viktorovka (northwest of Sudzha) and southwest and northwest of Nikolskiy (south of Viktorovka) during an at least company-sized mechanized assault.[22] One of the Ukrainian brigades that repelled the mechanized assault reported on January 20 that Ukrainian forces destroyed three tanks and seven infantry fighting vehicles.
The Khortytsia operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the northeastern part of Ukraine. )
Chasiv Yar Sector: Russian forces recently advanced in the Chasiv Yar direction amid continued offensive operations in the area on Jan 21. Geolocated footage published on Jan 21 indicates that Russian forces recently advanced within central Chasiv Yar. Additional geolocated footage published on Jan 21 shows elements of the "Shustry" Detachment of Chechen Akhmat Spetsnaz operating south of Chasiv Yar, indicating that Russian forces recently advanced in the area.
The Tavria operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the central-eastern and southeastern part of Ukraine.)
Pokrovsk Sector : Ukrainian and Russian forces recently advanced in the Pokrovsk direction amid continued offensive operations in the area on Jan 21. Geolocated footage published on Jan 20 indicates that Ukrainian forces recently regained lost positions in southern Kotlyne (southwest of Pokrovsk). Additional geolocated footage published on Jan 21 indicates that Russian forces recently seized Zelene and Novyi Trud (both south of Pokrovsk).
Kurakhove Sector: Russian forces recently advanced northwest of Kurakhove amid continued offensive operations in the Kurakhove direction on Jan 21. Geolocated footage published on Jan 21 indicates that Russian forces recently advanced in fields west of Petropavlivka (northwest of Kurakhove) and northeast of Rozdolne (southwest of Kurakhove).
The Odesa operational-strategic group
(Responsible for Kherson, Qırım, (also known as Crimea) and the Black Sea.)
There have been no major changes to the combat environment since our last report.
TEMPORARILY OCCUPIED TERRITORIES
Nothing major to report.
THE HOME FRONT
Ukraine energy firm DTEK plans $470 million wind farm expansion.
Ukraine's largest private energy company DTEK said on Wednesday it plans to invest 450 million Euros ($468.59 million) to expand a wind farm near the Black Sea coast, boosting its capacity, Reuters reported on Jan 22.
DTEK, most of whose thermal generation capacity has been damaged or destroyed by Russian bombardments, said it would expand its Tyligulska Wind Power Plant from 114 MW to 500 MW.
The company, which is owned by Rinat Akhmetov who is Ukraine's richest man, said it had reached a financing deal with lenders for the purchase of 64 wind turbines from Danish manufacturer Vestas.
DTEK said 370 million euros of the investment would come from bank loans backed by the state-owned Export and Investment Fund of Denmark (EIFO), while DTEK was financing the rest.
"The commitment is the largest private sector investment in Ukraine since Russia's full-scale invasion in 2022 and the biggest ever private investment in Ukraine's energy sector."
"At full capacity, Tyligulska will produce 1.7 TWh of electricity a year – providing enough electricity to power 900,000 Ukrainian homes," it said, adding that the planned completion date was in late 2026.
Most of DTEK's generating capacity had traditionally been in its network of thermal power plants, which have been bombed intensively by Russia during the three-year war in Ukraine.
DTEK said last summer that 90% of its thermal generation capacity had been knocked out.
The Tyligulska wind farm, which came online in May 2023, is situated 400 kilometres south of Kyiv in the Mykolaiv region.
Russia issued ultimatum to Ukraine in 2022 to replace Zelenskyy with Medvedchuk.
Russia wanted to install pro-Kremlin oligarch Viktor Medvedchuk as Ukraine's president after forcing President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to step down, the Ukrainian head of state said on Jan. 22, citing a Kremlin ultimatum he received in the early days of the full-scale war. The Kyiv Independent reports.
"Some people came to me on the first days of the war, some people from Ukraine…They gave me the ultimatum from (Russian President Vladimir) Putin," Zelenskyy said on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.
"They said that I have to go, and they will change me (for) Medvedchuk (as president)."
According to Zelenskyy, the ultimatum also demanded Ukraine recognize Russian occupation authorities in Donbas, change its constitution to commit to "neutrality," shrink its army to 50,000 troops, give up much of its weapon arsenal, and recognize Russian as an official language of Ukraine.
"This was not a negotiation; it’s an ultimatum," Zelensky said, adding that Russia’s points were similar to those later presented during unsuccessful peace talks in 2022 that took place in Turkey.
Formerly a Ukrainian lawmaker and businessman, Medvedchuk was among the leading pro-Russian figures in Ukraine before the full-scale invasion. He maintained close personal relations with Putin, the godfather of the oligarch's daughter.
Medvedchuk was detained by Ukrainian authorities in 2022 and exchanged with Russia later the same year.
Possible peace talks are again coming into focus as U.S. President Donald Trump vowed to bring Kyiv and Moscow to the negotiating table. Zelensky said earlier during the forum that his country will seek to achieve a quick but just peace this year.
Dnipro lawyer arrested for allegedly aiding Russian missile strikes.
The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) detained a lawyer from Dnipro suspected of aiding Russian missile strikes against the city and then attempting to flee the country, the Kyiv Independent reported citing an SBU announcement on Jan. 22.
The agency did not reveal the suspect's identity but described him as a "well-known local lawyer" and one of the most "deeply undercover FSB (Russia's Federal Security Service) agents in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast."
The man, detained while allegedly attempting to flee across the Polish border at the Krakivets checkpoint, was accused of providing Russia with coordinates for a strike that killed six people and seriously injured 30 in Dnipro on Dec. 29, 2023.
The attack damaged a shopping center, a maternity hospital, a house, administrative buildings, and at least two dozen high-rise buildings.
The suspect is said to have provided Russia with coordinates for a local enterprise, workshops, and drone warehouses to help "inflict maximum damage." He then passed information on the consequences of the attack and provided coordinates for another strategic facility in Dnipro, according to the SBU.
The lawyer maintained contact with a senior member of the Russian occupation administration in Crimea and with FSB officers, Ukrainian prosecutors said. The suspect was charged with treason and justifying Russian aggression and faces life in prison.
Dnipro is the regional center of the central-eastern Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and Ukraine's fourth-largest city, serving as an important logistics and medical hub for the front since the outbreak of the full-scale invasion. Multiple deadly drone and missile strikes have targeted the city since 2022.
RUSSIAN WORLD
North Korean troops on the run after murdering Russian soldiers.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a US based think tank, in its Jan 21 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment reported that Russian opposition outlet Mobilization News reported on Jan 21 that Russian authorities are currently searching for three North Korean personnel who killed five Russian soldiers of the 810th Naval Infantry Brigade near Bolshoye Soldatskoye (northeast of Sudzha).
Displaced Kursk Residents Accuse Governor of Ignoring Their Pleas.
A group of displaced residents from Russia’s southwestern Kursk region held a protest on Tuesday over what they claimed was the local governor’s refusal to meet with them and offer more comprehensive support amid ongoing clashes between Russian and Ukrainian forces. The Moscow Times reports.
More than 150,000 residents of border towns and villages in the Kursk region were forced to evacuate their homes after Ukrainian troops launched a surprise incursion in early August. Since then, displaced residents have staged multiple protests, describing poor temporary accommodations and a lack of government compensation for lost and damaged property.
“It’s been almost half a year since we were thrown out onto the street into a complete unknown,” one woman said in a video shared by local media. “We have no permanent place to stay... our children are forgetting what home is, and the region’s authorities refuse to acknowledge our growing problems.”
The woman accused Kursk region officials of intentionally delaying support, pointing out that President Vladimir Putin had publicly assured citizens that the government would fund recovery efforts.
“The president of Russia said the region [Kursk] has no problems with funding... and yet we are constantly told: ‘We have no money’,” the woman said.“It feels like the government doesn’t need us,” she added, calling for a face-to-face meeting with Alexander Khinshtein, the newly appointed acting governor of the Kursk region.
Flanked by other displaced residents from the region’s Glushkovsky district, the woman criticized Khinshtein for avoiding direct engagement with their community. “Stop hiding from us behind the backs of initiative groups,” she said.
Local media reported that the residents were told Khinshtein was unable to meet with them after getting sick.
Since his appointment last month, Khinshtein has held several meetings with displaced residents, but he has dismissed some of their demands as “unfair.” His predecessor, Alexei Smirnov, was reportedly sacked over his apparent inability to manage emergency relief efforts following Ukraine’s surprise incursion.
Meanwhile, Ukraine’s military gains in the Kursk region have reportedly stalled amid reinforcements from Russia, including troops from its ally North Korea. Russia’s Defense Ministry said last week that its forces had reclaimed over 60% of the territory in the region initially occupied by Ukrainian forces.
During his end-of-year press conference in December, Putin declined to specify when the Kursk region would be fully “liberated.”
INTERNATIONAL NEWS
Israel Offers Seized Russian Weapons From Hezbollah Raids to Ukraine.
Israel has proposed transferring Russian-made weapons, seized by the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) in Lebanon, or from other adversaries, to Ukraine, the Ukrainian Embassy in Israel announced on its official Facebook page.
According to the statement, Ukrainian Ambassador to Israel Yevhen Korniychuk met with Israel’s Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs, Sharren Haskel, on Tuesday, Jan. 21. During the meeting, the ambassador thanked Israel for its offer to provide the seized weapons.
“This initiative would be an important step in recognizing the common threats faced by both countries. The Ukrainian side expressed hope for a positive solution to this issue,” the Ukrainian Embassy wrote on Facebook.
Some of the weapons offered to Ukraine were seized from a Hezbollah underground base in southern Lebanon in late 2024. The base, used as a command center, contained Russian-made arms such as rockets, rifles, and other equipment.
The meeting also covered concerns about military cooperation between Iran and Russia, which both Ukraine and Israel view as a threat to their national security. The parties explored ways to counter this issue and discussed opportunities to strengthen ties, including economic, humanitarian, and consular cooperation.
While Israel has provided diplomatic support, humanitarian aid and some defensive technology to Ukraine as it battles Russian full-scale invasion for almost three years, it has resisted calls to provide weapons and other military equipment to Kyiv since Russia’s full-scale invasion.
Recently, however, the risk-cost balance between Israel and Russia has changed because of Moscow’s increasingly closer relationship with Teheran. Iran is the main backer for both Hamas and Hezbollah and is considered the main threat to Israel and the region.
In December 2024, Israeli Ambassador to Ukraine Michael Brodsky said that the relationship between Israel and Ukraine has been growing in recent years, and with it, mutual understanding.
Syria Terminates Russian Naval Base Deal – Reports
Syria’s new government terminated a treaty granting Russia a long-term military presence in the Mediterranean, a deal brokered under ousted leader Bashar al-Assad, Syrian media reported Tuesday. The Moscow Times reports.
The agreement, signed in 2017, extended the Russian Navy’s lease on the port of Tartus for 49 years. However, its future became uncertain after Assad was overthrown by Islamist rebels last month.
The de facto authorities in Tartus reportedly annulled the agreement and demanded the immediate withdrawal of Russian forces, the Syrian opposition news outlet Shaam reported Monday, citing the regime’s ministry of information.
Authorities also said that revenue from the port would “now benefit the Syrian state,” reversing the previous agreement under which Russia received 65% of Tartus’ profits. The report added that Syria’s new leadership may investigate the treaty’s economic impact on the country.
Moscow has not yet issued a statement regarding the reported termination of the Tartus lease.
Russian President Vladimir Putin, who ordered military intervention in Syria in 2015 to bolster Assad’s regime during the civil war, has sought to downplay the fall of Assad. Putin claimed that Russia had achieved its objectives in Syria despite the regime change.
On Sunday, the new Syrian government reportedly imposed bans on imports from Russia, Iran and Israel.
MILITARY & TECH
NATO General - Russia lacks manpower for a major breakthrough in Ukraine.
Russia lacks sufficient forces for a big breakthrough in Ukraine, The Kyiv Independent reports, citing NATO's Supreme Allied Commander in Europe, General Christopher Cavoli, during a discussion on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos on Jan. 21.
"I'm not worried that Ukraine could suddenly lose. I don't see the potential for a massive (Russian) breakthrough," Cavoli said.
"And this is not a political but a military vision. It's got to do with both sides, the effective defenses that the Ukrainians have been putting in, but also the difficulty that the Russian side has in generating significant offensive forces to be able to exploit a potential breakthrough."
Russia quickly advanced in Ukraine's Donetsk Oblast in late 2024, making operationally significant gains near Toretsk, Chasiv Yar, and Kupiansk, as well as on its own soil in Kursk Oblast. Ukraine has struggled to contain the Russian offensive as Ukrainian forces are overstretched and dealing with manpower shortages.
Despite Russian advances, Cavoli said Russia's slow and incremental push is "exhausting" for Moscow's forces.
"After all, there is a reason why Russia brought thousands and thousands of soldiers from North Korea," he added, referring to the 12,000-strong North Korean contingent dispatched to Kursk Oblast.
"I think we're going to continue to see this tension between the desire to attack and the lack of manpower on the part of the Russians. I think that will largely define the conflict and force the Russians to use more weapons of deterrence, as we've seen them do in recent years."
The general also said that though it remains unclear whether the U.S. will continue providing military aid packages under the Trump administration, he pointed to the "very significant uplift in European aid" provided to Ukraine.
Recently inaugurated U.S. President Donald Trump criticized military aid for Ukraine during his campaign and, after his reelection, hinted at reducing it. Multiple media reports have nevertheless indicated that Trump does not intend to cut aid completely but wants to see Europe take up greater responsibility for Ukraine's security.
Russia Unveils New KUB-2 Kamikaze Drone
The Russian Kalashnikov Concern has officially introduced its new kamikaze drone, the KUB-2, developed in collaboration with Izhevsk Unmanned Systems. Announced on January 21, the drone is set to make its public debut with an export version, the KUB-2-E, at the IDEX 2025 arms exhibition in the UAE from February 17 to 21. Defense Express reports.
Despite the recent announcement, the Armed Forces of Ukraine had already encountered this UAV. On January 7, the 117th Heavy Mechanized Brigade intercepted the KUB-2 UAV using a FPV drone. Initially misidentified as the Lancet drone, detailed analysis revealed its unique features, such as a biplane wing design and distinct warhead placement, confirming it as a new platform.
The KUB-2 drone boasts a 10 kg warhead with two variants: one for fragmentation strikes against personnel and unarmored vehicles, and another possibly cluster-based for lightly armored targets, UAV launch sites, and helicopter pads. The drone reportedly operates both day and night, likely utilizing thermal imaging cameras, though its operational range remains undisclosed.
Compared to its predecessor, the KUB, the KUB-2 UAV is a significant upgrade. The older model lacked cameras, relied on stationary targets, and carried a mere 3 kg warhead. The new version positions itself as a competitor to the Lancet, another kamikaze drone produced by Zala, a subsidiary of Kalashnikov Concern. However, the decision to develop a rival product within the same company raises questions about the Kalashnikov Concern’s strategic direction.
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