THE RUSSO-UKRAINE WAR BRIEF
For: 2024-09-17
Slava Ukraini! In early 2022 I began a Telegram channel aggregating news from a number of sources daily on the war in Ukraine. In June 2023 I began providing a daily draft for the Ukraine War Brief Podcast collecting news from over 70 sources daily, much of which formed the basis of the script. While the Podcast no longer exists I have continued to make this Brief available both on my own Substack and The People’s Media for those who wish to keep up with events on a daily basis.
All the latest news on the Russo-Ukraine War 6 days per week
ALONG THE CONTACT LINE
GSAFU Morning Report
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in its Operational Information update at 22:00 on Sep 16 stated that day 937 of the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation against Ukraine was about to begin.
During the past day, 153 combat engagements took place. Over the past 24 hours, the enemy carried out 63 air strikes, 448 drone strikes and more than 2,900 artillery strikes across the positions of Ukrainian forces.
At the same time, Ukrainian soldiers continue to inflict losses in manpower and equipment on the occupying troops, exhausting the enemy along the entire front line and continue to disrupt the plans of Russian occupiers to advance deep into the territory of Ukraine.
Air Force Daily Report
On the night of September 17, 2024 (from 7 p.m. to 6 a.m.), radio engineering troops of the Air Force detected and escorted 51 strike UAVs from the directions: Kursk, Primorsko-Akhtarsk - Russian Federation, Cape Chauda - Crimea.
The air attack of the enemy was repulsed by: aviation, anti-aircraft missile troops, mobile fire groups and EW units of the Air Force and the Defense Forces of Ukraine. As a result of anti-aircraft combat, 34 attack UAVs were shot down.
In addition, as a result of the active countermeasures of the EW means of the Defense Forces, twelve UAVs were lost in location in several regions of Ukraine (information about casualties and destruction was not received). Two more enemy attack drones returned to Russia.
Anti-aircraft defence worked in Mykolaiv, Kherson, Sumy, Poltava and Kharkiv regions.
The Russian Border Incursion
Both Russia and Ukraine continue advance in Kursk
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a US based think tank, in its Sep 16 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment assessed that Ukrainian and Russian forces continued to advance in Glushkovsky Raion, Kursk Oblast amid continued fighting in the area on Sep 16. Geolocated footage published on Sep 15 indicates that Ukrainian forces recently advanced south of Veseloye (southwest of Glushkovo) and west and north of Medvezhye (southeast of Veseloye).
Additional geolocated footage published on September 16 indicates that Russian forces recently advanced in southeastern Veseloye .Russian sources claimed on September 15 and 16 that Ukrainian forces conducted offensive operations near Veseloye and Medvezhye. Elements of the Russian 56th Airborne (VDV) Regiment (7th VDV Division) and Russian 106th VDV Division are reportedly operating in Glushkovsky Raion.
Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast amid continued Ukrainian offensive operations in the area on Sep 16. Geolocated footage published on Sep 15 indicates that Ukrainian forces recently advanced northwest of Viktorovka and west of Gordeevka (both south of Korenevo). The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed on September 16 that Ukrainian forces attacked south of Korenevo near Byakhovo and Viktorovka; southwest of Korenevo near Krasnooktyabrskoye; southeast of Korenevo near Lyubimovka; and northwest of Sudzha near Malaya Loknya.
Russian forces recently recaptured territory in the Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast amid continued Russian counterattacks in the area on Sep 16. Geolocated footage published on September 16 indicates that Russian forces recently advanced in northern Obukhovka (southeast of Korenevo).
The Russian MoD claimed on September 16 that Russian forces seized Uspenovka (south of Korenevo and on the Russian-Ukrainian border) and Borki (southeast of Sudzha), although ISW has not observed confirmation of these claim.[43] Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces counterattacked near Lyubimovka.
The Financial Times, citing a senior Ukrainian military intelligence official, reported on September 16 that Russian forces have committed 38,000 personnel to fighting in Kursk Oblast, including assault brigades redeployed from southern Ukraine.
An unknown number of Russian troops appear encircled in Kursk Region
Co-founder and analyst of the Deep state interactive online map, Roman Pohorilyi told about russians' encirclement in a commentary on the RBC-Ukraine YouTube channel.
According to Pohorilyi, the Defense Forces of Ukraine continue to work in the Kursk region. Active hostilities are currently taking place there. Meanwhile, Russians are trying to counterattack on the western flanks of the territory where the Ukrainian military is located.
"And after the last update, in the Kursk region, everyone could see this very interesting 'grey' zone in the encirclement. This is how it is. In other words, Russians are surrounded. They are trying to get through in some way to provide reinforcements. Our military are fighting with them. So the situation there is very interesting. But it is difficult and too early to draw any conclusions," he added.
At the same time, the Deep State analyst noted that he did not know the number of russians who were surrounded, but expressed hope that the enemy would not be able to escape.
The Khortytsia operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the northeastern part of Ukraine. )
Kharkiv Sector: Over the last day Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 2 Russian attack near Vovchansk.
Kupyansk Sector: Russian Forces carried out 10 offensive actions against Ukrainian defensive positions near Synkivka, Novoselivske and Lozova. 4 engagements continue.
Lyman Sector: Russian Forces carried out 21 offensive actions against Ukrainian defensive positions near Druzhelyubivka, Hrekivka, Makiivka, Nevske, Novosadove and Serebryanka. 4 engagements continue.
Siversk Sector: Russian forces carried out 3 unsuccessful assaults in the vicinity of Bilohorivka, Ivano-Darivka and Pereizne.
Kramatorsk Sector: Russian forces carried out 6 offensive actions near Vasyukivka and Chasiv Yar. 1 engagement continues.
Toretsk Sector: Russian forces carried out 16 offensive actions with air support near Druzhba, Toretsk, Zalizne and Nelipivka. 3 battles are ongoing.
The Tavria operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the central-eastern and southeastern part of Ukraine.)
Pokrovsk Sector : The enemy conducted 40 attacks against Ukrainian defences in this area over the last day in the vicinity of Vozdvyzhenko, Krasnyi Yar, Hrodivka, Novohrodivka and Marynivka. 2 engagements are ongoing.
Kurakhove Sector: The situation in this area is quite serious. There were 42 combat clashes in the vicinity of Ukrainsk, Tsukuryne, Zhelanne Persha, Hostre, Konstantinivka and Katerynivka. 4 engagements are ongoing.
Vremivka Sector: Russian forces made 7 assaults against Ukrainian positions near Vuhledar and Vodyane. 4 attacks are ongoing.
Orikhiv Sector: There has been no significant change in the combat environment in this sector. Russian forces made 1 assault against Ukrainian positions near Robotyne.
The Odesa operational-strategic group
(Responsible for Kherson, Qırım, (also known as Crimea) and the Black Sea.)
Prydniprovsk Sector: In this sector, over the last day, the situation has not changed significantly. Russian forces made 5 unsuccessful attempts to force Ukrainian units from their positions on the left bank of the Dnipro.
TEMPORARILY OCCUPIED TERRITORIES
Ukraine destroys Russian ammunition depots near occupied Mariupol
The Ukrainian Navy recently carried out a missile strike on ammunition depots near the Russian-occupied Ukrainian city of Mariupol, according to a Sept. 17 statement. The strike destroyed both the storage infrastructure and tons of ammunition that Russian troops were stockpiling for use against Ukraine, the Navy said.
Petro Andriushchenko, an adviser to the exiled mayor of Mariupol, shared photos showing Russian "destroyed warehouses" in the neighboring village of Hlyboke.
Mariupol came under siege by Russian forces between February and May 2022, leaving thousands dead and reducing Mariupol to rubble.
According to authorities' rough estimates, at least 25,000 people may have been killed during the siege of Mariupol. The exact number remains unknown and could be much higher.
THE HOME FRONT
Ukraine celebrates Rescuers Day
Today is the professional holiday of all rescuers of the State Emergency Service of Ukraine. People who arrive at the places of shelling among the first. They risk themselves, but help others State Emergency Services stated.
Ukrainian rescuers are employees of the State Emergency Service of Ukraine every day in the most dangerous places: they put out fires, dismantle rubble after Russian shelling, clear Ukrainian land of mines, and carry out the evacuation of civilians from the hottest areas.
This holiday is a symbol of courage, dedication and high professionalism, which you guide every day in your difficult, but extremely important work, in such difficult conditions. The enemy mercilessly and purposefully attacks units of the State Emergency Service and you work with a constant risk to your own life. Your heroism knows no bounds!
I especially want to express my gratitude to every unit that works tirelessly in conditions of constant danger: rescuers, firefighters, sappers, divers, doctors, dog trainers, psychologists, chemists, engineers, drivers, dispatchers.
I am sincerely grateful to each of you for your dedication and professionalism. For your courage and unshakable faith in the victory of good over evil!
Andriy Danyk - Head of the State Emergency Service of Ukraine
RUSSIAN WORLD
Mass Infantry Tactics and Recruitment Struggles Have Placed Immense Pressure on russia’s Military Efforts
The UK Ministry of Defence in their Sep 17 Intelligence Update on Ukraine stated The war in Ukraine has been a costly endeavour for russia, especially in terms of military personnel. Since the start of the full-scale invasion Russia has likely suffered over 610,000 casualties (killed and wounded). Tactics based on mass infantry waves has required Russia to continuously replenish front line forces with a constant stream of new recruits.
It is likely that Russian military recruitment rates in 2024 have decreased compared to rates achieved in 2023. Russian officials suggested in late 2023 that the Ministry of Defense of Russia was recruiting at a rate of around 1,600 daily. However, publicly cited figures this year put the rate at around 1,000 daily. These figures are themselves probably inflated to an extent.
This has led the Ministry of Defense of Russia to increase sign-on bonuses in August 2024, an increasingly expensive recruitment strategy for russia. Estimates suggest military personnel payments amounted to around 8% of federal spending in the year to June 2024. Payment increases will nonetheless probably bolster recruitment levels for the remainder of the year.
Grumpy Here - My counterpart at The Peoples Media is writing an article about the Russian economy. I think the revelation given here that 8% of federal spending went on payments to military personnel, coupled with Putin’s announcement yesterday of a further increase the size of the Russian armed forces, along with other indicators that the Russian economy may be nearing collapse will result in an acceleration of that eventuality.
Note that what is referred to here is that 8% of Russian Federal spending currently goes to paying salary and benefits for members of the Russian military. This does not include the everyday costs of running their army, navy, air and missile forces, the cost of manufacturing new weapons and vehicles to replace the massive losses in Ukraine. Not to mention the massive intelligence apparatus they operate worldwide. All in a shrinking economy on the verge of collapse.
NEWS WORLDWIDE
Germany says Moldova could be next in line if Ukraine falls
Support for Ukraine guarantees the survival of neighbouring Moldova, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said on Tuesday at a conference to address concerns about broadening Russian interference in the region. Reuters reports.
"Everything that we do to support Ukraine also means fostering stabilisation with regards to Moldova," Baerbock said. "It is clear what the greatest concern of the people here is: that if Ukraine falls, Moldova is the next country in line."
Baerbock was visiting Chisinau for the Moldova Partnership Platform, together with her counterparts from France, Romania, Poland, the Netherlands and Lithuania.
Germany, one of Kyiv's main military supporters in Europe, initiated the platform after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, painting it as part of broader efforts to stabilise Moldova's economy and shield it from Russian disinformation.
Moldova, which has a Romanian-speaking majority and large Russian-speaking minority, has alternated between pro-Russian and pro-Western governments since the fall of the Soviet Union, and now has a strong Western-oriented administration. Moscow has troops stationed in a region where pro-Russian separatists broke from Chisinau's control in a short war in the early 1990s.
Moldovan President Maia Sandu, who has accused Russia of trying to overthrow her government, said Moldova still faces serious challenges and urged partners to increase their support.
"Russia's war against Ukraine, which we condemned from the very first day, has caused enormous damage to our economy," Sandu said.
"The uncertainty caused by the war continues to seriously hinder our economic development and will continue to hinder it as long as the war lasts," she added.
Around 1 million killed, wounded in Russia's full-scale war in Ukraine
Roughly 1 million Ukrainians and Russians have been killed or wounded in Moscow's all-out war against Ukraine, the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported on Sep 17, citing undisclosed sources and Western intelligence estimates.
Kyiv and Moscow have mostly avoided commenting on the casualties their forces suffered during the war, which has been ongoing for two and half years.
A "confidential Ukrainian estimate from earlier this year" put Kyiv's losses at 80,000 soldiers killed and 400,000 wounded, the WSJ wrote, citing undisclosed sources. President Volodymyr Zelensky presented a much lower number of military fatalities in February - 31,000. He did not reveal the number of wounded troops.
Western intelligence estimates cited by the WSJ placed Russian losses at up to 200,000 dead and 400,000 wounded. This is close to Kyiv's estimates on Moscow's casualties, which is over 635,000 killed and wounded as of Sept. 17.
Leaking Pentagon documents reported on by The Economist in July suggest that Russian losses could be even more serious, with the highest estimate being 728,000 troops killed, injured, or captured.
Moscow has not disclosed its casualties during the war. The last figure provided by Russian authorities was 5,937 killed soldiers as of September 2022.
Both Ukraine and Russia have sought to replenish the ranks of their militaries as there appears to be no end of the war in sight. Kyiv adopted new legislation on mobilisation in the spring, lowering the conscription age from 27 to 25 and imposing stricter penalties for dodging draft.
In turn, Russia carried out a partial mobilisation in September 2022 and, according to Ukraine's intelligence, continues "covertly" drafting roughly 30,000 troops every month. Moscow primarily targets residents of economically weaker regions and migrants rather than men from wealthy urban centres to avoid discontent and an economic downturn.
The war brought a demographic shock to both countries, already struggling with population growth. An estimated 14 million Ukrainians have been displaced by the war, including nearly 6.5 million who fled or were forced out abroad.
Ukrainian military intel strikes Russian drone base in Syria, media sources say
Ukrainian special forces have conducted a successful operation against a Russian military base in Syria, the Kyiv Post reported, citing a source in the country’s military intelligence. The attack, reportedly carried out by the Khimik group of Ukraine’s Main Directorate of Intelligence (HUR), took place on the morning of 15 September, on the southeastern outskirts of Syria’s Aleppo.
The targeted facility was reportedly used by Russian forces for manufacturing and testing strike drones, as well as producing “camouflaged improvised explosive devices.” The combat units of these devices were stored at the position attacked by the Ukrainian special forces.
Footage obtained by Kyiv Post shows the symbol of Ukrainian military intelligence near the Russian base, followed by an explosion and subsequent detonation of ammunition at the Russian facility. The video also reveals explosives that were previously planted inside the base.
MILITARY & TECH
Nothing major to report.
That’s it for today’s Draft folks if you would like to keep up with events in Ukraine daily please consider subscribing, its free!
Feel free to share this update with your friends. Heroyam Slava!