THE RUSSO-UKRAINE WAR BRIEF

For: 2024-11-13

Nov 13, 2024

Slava Ukraini! In early 2022 I began a Telegram channel aggregating news from a number of sources daily on the war in Ukraine. In June 2023 I began providing a daily draft for the Ukraine War Brief Podcast collecting news from over 70 sources daily, much of which formed the basis of the script. While the Podcast no longer exists I have continued to make this Brief available both on my own Substack and The People’s Media for those who wish to keep up with events on a daily basis.

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ALONG THE CONTACT LINE

GSAFU Morning Report

The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in its Operational Information update at 22:00 on Nov 12 stated that day 993 of the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation against Ukraine was about to begin.

During the past day, 156 combat engagements took place. Over the past 24 hours, the enemy carried out 1 missile strike, 69 air strikes, 873 drone strikes and more than 4,178 artillery strikes across the positions of Ukrainian forces.

At the same time, Ukrainian soldiers continue to inflict losses in manpower and equipment on the occupying troops, exhausting the enemy along the entire front line and continue to disrupt the plans of Russian occupiers to advance deep into the territory of Ukraine.

Air Force Daily Report

On the night of November 13, 2024 (from 15:00 on November 12), the enemy attacked Ukraine with various types of missiles, guided air bombs and attack drones.

A total of 96 air attack vehicles were detected by the Air Force's radio engineering troops (not including KAB):

- 2 S-300 anti-aircraft guided missiles from the Kursk region. - Russian Federation in Sumy Oblast;
- 2 Kh-101 cruise missiles — Russian Federation. from Tu-95MS strategic bombers, the launch area is the Caspian Sea;
- 2 "Iskander-M" /KN -23 ballistic missiles, launch area, Voronezh region. - Russian Federation;
- 90 strike UAVs of the "Shahed" type and unmanned aerial vehicles of an unspecified type from the Kursk, Primorsko-Akhtarsk, Orel regions - Russian Federation.

The air attack was repulsed by anti-aircraft missile forces, aviation, electronic warfare units, mobile fire groups of the Air Force and the Defense Forces of Ukraine.

As of 10:00 a.m., two Kh-101 cruise missiles, two Iskander-M /KN -23 ballistic missiles and 37 enemy UAVs were downed in the Kyiv, Poltava, Zhytomyr, Sumy, Cherkasy, Zaporizhia, Chernihiv and Kirovohrad regions.

47 enemy drones were lost in different regions of Ukraine, two UAVs left the airspace of Ukraine in the direction of Belarus and Russia. Two more drones are in the air, combat work continues!

The Russian Border Incursion

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a US based think tank, in its Nov 12 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment reported that Russian forces recently advanced southeast of Korenevo during a multi-wave battalion-sized mechanized assault amid continued attacks within the main Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast on Nov 12. Geolocated footage published on Nov 11 indicates that Russian forces recently advanced during a battalion-sized mechanized assault southeast of Novoivanovka (southeast of Korenevo).

One of the Ukrainian brigades that repelled the Russian mechanized assault reported that Russian forces attacked with 29 armored vehicles in five waves, and that Ukrainian forces reportedly destroyed 18 of the 29 vehicles. Additional geolocated footage published on Nov 11 and 12 indicates that Russian forces recently advanced within and northwest of Plekhovo (south of Sudzha) and southwest of Pogrebki (east of Korenevo), respectively. Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces also recently advanced near Darino (southeast of Korenevo) and pushed Ukrainian forces from positions near Maryevka (north of Sudzha), but ISW has not observed confirmation of these claims. Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces conducted an unsuccessful armored assault near Kremyanoye. Fighting is ongoing southeast of Korenevo near Darino, Nikolaevo-Darino, Novoivanovka, and Leonidovo and north of Sudzha near Orlovka and Malaya Loknya. Elements of the Russian 56th Airborne (VDV) Regiment (7th VDV Division) reportedly continue to operate in Kursk Oblast.

ISW - Recent western claims of a major Russian counter-offensive in Kursk are unlikely.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a US based think tank, in its -- Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment reported that recent Western and Ukrainian estimates about the size of the Russian force grouping in Kursk Oblast do not represent a significant inflection, as Russian forces have spent several months gathering forces for a future counteroffensive effort to expel Ukrainian forces from Russian territory. Ukrainian officials and Western media recently reported that Russia has concentrated a rough total of 50,000 personnel, including about 8,000 - 10,000 North Korean forces, in Kursk Oblast in preparation for an operation to push Ukrainian forces from Russian territory before late Jan 2025 and suggested that Russia has not redeployed any of these forces from eastern Ukraine.

Ukrainian sources estimated in September and Oct 2024 that Russian forces had already concentrated between 30,000 and 50,000 personnel in Kursk Oblast, including an estimated 35,000 personnel from Russia's Northern Grouping of Forces who were operating in Kursk, Bryansk, and Belgorod oblasts and northern Kharkiv Oblast prior to the Ukrainian incursion in Kursk Oblast in August 2024.

US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin stated on October 31 that 8,000 North Korean soldiers are also currently operating as part of the larger Russian force grouping in Kursk Oblast. A Ukrainian servicemember stated on Nov 11 that Russian forces are also redeploying additional elements of the 104th Airborne (VDV) Regiment (76th VDV Division) and several battalions of the 177th Naval Infantry Regiment (Caspian Flotilla) from western Zaporizhia Oblast to Kursk Oblast, but ISW has not observed independent indications of these redeployments as of this report. ISW observed reports in mid-October 2024 that elements of the 177th Naval Infantry Regiment were operating near Chasiv Yar

Ukraine's Pivnich (Northern) Operational Command Spokesperson Colonel Vadym Mysnyk reported on November 11 that the Russian military is frequently transferring new reserves to Kursk Oblast due to high personnel and equipment losses.
These reserves are likely intended to replace personnel losses and not significantly bolster the existing Russian force grouping in the area.

The Khortytsia operational-strategic group

(Responsible for the northeastern part of Ukraine. )

Kharkiv Sector: Over the last day Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 8 Russian attacks in the area of Vovchansk.

Kupyansk Sector: Russian Forces carried out 17 offensive actions against Ukrainian defensive positions near Kolisynivka, Kruhlyakivka, Zahryzove and Lozova.

Lyman Sector: Russian Forces carried out 6 offensive actions against Ukrainian defensive positions near Hrekivka, Novomykhailivka and Torske.

Siversk Sector: Russian forces carried out 1 offensive action near Verkhnokamyanske.

Kramatorsk Sector: In this sector, over the last day, there has been no significant change in the combat environment.

Toretsk Sector: Russian forces carried out 10 offensive actions with air support near Toretsk and Shcherbynivka.

The Tavria operational-strategic group

(Responsible for the central-eastern and southeastern part of Ukraine.)

Pokrovsk Sector : A high intensity of combat is maintained in the Pokrovsky direction. Russian forces carried out 28 offensive actions in the vicinity of Myrolyubivka, Promin, Lysivka, Hryhorivka, Pustynka and . 9 engagements continue.

Kurakhove Sector: The main thrust of Russian forces over the last day was in this district 46 offensive actions took place in the vicinity of Novodmytrivka, Voznesenka, Novoselydivka, Illinka, Dalnje and Antonivka. some engagements continue.

Vremivka Sector: Russian forces made 13 attempts to break through Ukrainian defences in the vicinity of Novodarivka, Rivnopil, Makarivka and Trudove.

Orikhiv Sector: In this sector, over the last day, there has been no significant change in the combat environment.

The Odesa operational-strategic group

(Responsible for Kherson, Qırım, (also known as Crimea) and the Black Sea.)

Prydniprovsk Sector: In this sector, over the last day, there has been no significant change in the combat environment. Russian forces made 5 unsuccessful attempts to dislodge Ukrainian units from their positions on the left bank of the Dnipro.

TEMPORARILY OCCUPIED TERRITORIES

Nothing major to report.

THE HOME FRONT

Russia stages first missile attack on Kyiv since August

Blasts boomed across Kyiv on Wednesday morning after officials said Russia launched its first missile attack on the Ukrainian capital since August, forcing elderly women and small children to take shelter in an underground metro station. Reuters reported on Nov 13.

Ukrainians have been waiting for a big missile attack for months, worried that it could deal a new blow to the hobbled energy system and cause long blackouts as winter sets in.
Air defences intercepted two incoming cruise missiles, two ballistic missiles and 37 drones across the country, the air force said. No casualties or major damage were reported in Kyiv.

"Putin is launching a missile attack on Kyiv right now," Andriy Yermak, the head of the president's office, wrote on Telegram.

Falling debris came down in the region outside Kyiv, injuring a 48-year-old man and causing a fire at a warehouse, the head of Kyiv region's administration said.

Kyiv has faced Russian drone attacks almost nightly for weeks. City mayor Vitali Klitschko said a drone was still flying over central Kyiv in the morning.

"Explosions in the city. Air defence forces are working. Stay in shelters!" the Kyiv city administration wrote on Telegram.

Around 100 residents took shelter in the central metro station Universitet, including small children sleeping on yoga mats and elderly women sitting on fold-out chairs.

Some complained of a lack of sleep from the regular drone attacks, which trigger the air raid alert that sounds across the city and buzzes on phones.

"The mornings are totally ruined. I started college in September and every morning has been ruined by the bloody Russians. I cannot sleep, cannot think and I drink energy drinks all the time," said Mykyta, a teenager hugging his dog in the metro.

Andrii Kovalenko, a senior official at the National Security and Defence Council, warned that Russia was ready to conduct another "massive" attack and had accumulated a large number of cruise missiles.

After Wednesday's strike, power grid operator Ukrenergo said it would limit electricity supply for businesses due to "significantly" lower power imports and lower generation.

A Long Hard War for State Emergency Services

Grumpy Here, some of you may know that before retirement I was a career firefighter for a very long time. Ukraine’s State Emergency Services holds a special place in my heart.

State Emergency Services in Ukraine provide essential life saving services to the citizens of Ukraine on a daily basis, from policing to firefighting to emergency medical treatment, search and rescue and even bomb disposal.

These brave men and women have had a long hard war, performing their jobs heroically and professionally in the heat of summer and the cold of winter - all while being intentionally targeted by Russia in what is considered in international law to be a terrorist act.

This is all in addition to being fathers, mothers, lovers, and children, responding to their neighbours' needs while suffering the same sleepless nights with air raid warnings wailing, explosions in the distance, sending friends and loved ones off to war, some of whom do not come home.

I have decided to post a series of photos here from the last couple of days to give you an idea of the scope of the work that these brave individuals do.

All Photos are courtesy of State Emergency Services.

Some are mundane, like rescuing a hiker who had been injured

Some are clearly not.

And some are terrifying

Please keep these brave men and women in your hearts as you go about your daily routine. Slava Ukraini!

RUSSIAN WORLD

Putin cuts payments to Russian soldiers for injuries in war against Ukraine

Russian ruler Vladimir Putin has approved new rules for compensation for wounded soldiers who took part in the war against Ukraine. Under the new conditions, a significant number of wounded Russian soldiers will receive reduced payments. Russian Propaganda sources report.

The payments will be three million roubles (about US$30,000) for serious injuries, one million roubles (about US$10,000) for light injuries and 100,000 roubles (about US$1,000) for "other minor injuries".

Meduza, a Latvia-based Russian news outlet, reported, the new rules actually reduced payments for injuries. Although the maximum compensation amount remains at three million roubles, it was previously paid without regard to the severity of the injury.

Mosfilm hands over 60+ year old tanks and other prop armoured vehicles to the Russian army

In 2023 Russian film studio Mosfilm handed over to the Russian Armed Forces 28 T-55 tanks, eight PT-76 tanks, six infantry fighting vehicles and eight tractors. This was stated by the Director General of «Mosfilm » Karen Shakhnazarov at a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Meduza reports citing the Kremlin’s press service.

These vehicles have been stored at the Studio’s facilities for years and used as props in various movies. On its website Mosfilm claims that the studio has at its disposal military equipment, which is used as props. In particular, the studio has more than 190 units of armoured vehicles, armoured personnel carriers including various samples of foreign military equipment of different periods, several dozen units of military weapons, including foreign production . All these props are in good condition and ready to shoot several films at the same time

Grumpy here - Both the T-55 and PT-76 were introduced nearly 70 years ago, perhaps they will send a WW II German Tiger tank to the front next?

INTERNATIONAL NEWS

Moldova finds third Russian drone in three days

A third Russian drone has been discovered in Moldova in three days. National police reported finding the unmanned aircraft on the outskirts of Cosernita, 26 kilometres from Chisinau, the capital. Euromaindan Press reports.

Two other drones were found on 10 November—one near Borosenii Noi village and another by Farladani village. These discoveries followed Russia’s largest drone assault on Ukraine, which involved 145 drones. While preliminary examinations showed no explosives on the drones, Foreign Minister Mihai Popșoi emphasised these airspace violations posed serious threats to civilian safety.

Moldova’s Foreign Ministry summoned Russian Ambassador Oleg Ozerov to deliver a formal protest over both the drone incidents and alleged election interference.

This adds to a pattern of Russian military debris landing in neighbouring states since the invasion began, with over 30 similar incidents reported across Romania, Poland, Moldova, Bulgaria, Croatia, and Belarus. Despite some being NATO members, these countries have avoided intercepting such aircraft, seemingly wary of “escalation.”

US scrutinises Russia accounts Swiss bank UBS took over from Credit Suisse, sources say.

The United States is pursuing an inquiry into Russian clients that UBS took on when it bought Credit Suisse, three people familiar with the matter said, heightening scrutiny of one of the world's biggest wealth managers. Reuters reported on Nov 12.

The U.S. sanctions enforcement agency, OFAC, has written to the bank as part of this inquiry, two people familiar with the matter told Reuters. A U.S. official, asking not to be named, said the Swiss bank and the enforcer have held discussions.

OFAC, or the Office of Foreign Assets Control, the globe's most powerful sanctions agency, wrote to UBS in recent weeks, said one of the people. Spokespeople for UBS and OFAC declined to comment.

The review concerns Russian customers at Credit Suisse that UBS is now in charge of after rescuing the lender, two of the people said. Credit Suisse, UBS' smaller Swiss peer, imploded in March 2023 following years of scandals from spying to laundering drug money.

UBS is seeking to contain any potential fallout from OFAC's queries by cordoning off suspect money and decommissioning the accounts to avoid the threat of a penalty, one of those people said.

The U.S. uses sanctions as a foreign policy tool, imposing restrictions to constrain the activities of nations such as Russia and Iran.

Handling Russian money has become increasingly risky, after the U.S. and Western allies rolled out an unprecedented web of sanctions in response to Moscow's invasion of Ukraine.

While the U.S. official praised UBS for being cooperative, one of the other sources said it was made clear that failure to deal with the problem could be punished.

UBS shares dropped almost 1% at the start of trading on Wednesday, underperforming its peers.Regulators in Switzerland have been scrutinising how UBS is handling Credit Suisse clients and the bank's anti-money laundering policies as they worry the Swiss bank could end up with risky clients, Reuters has reported.

For those that fall foul of U.S. sanctions, such as a bank handling a payment for a sanctioned individual, it could levy a fine. In exceptional cases, the U.S. has cut access to the dollar, the lifeblood of international finance.
It is unclear how much problematic money of Russian origin is now at UBS. In 2022, the then-CEO of Credit Suisse revealed that 4% of the money that the bank managed was for Russian clients - equivalent to about $35 billion.

Moscow court issues arrest warrants for ICC judges involved in Russia-linked cases

A Moscow court ordered an arrest in absentia of Reine Alapini-Gansou, the second vice-president of the International Criminal Court (ICC), The Kyiv Independent reports citing independent news outlet Mediazona on Nov 13.

The case against Alapini-Gansou was launched under the article of "illegal detention," Mediazona reported without providing additional details. She has also been placed on the wanted list, the court told the Interfax news agency.

Russia has extensively used lawfare to pressure and intimidate ICC judges since the Hague court issued an arrest warrant for Russian President Vladimir Putin and official Maria Lvova-Belova in March 2023 over the forced deportation of Ukrainian children.

A Beninese jurist with extensive experience in women's rights and human rights advocacy, Alapini-Gansou was elected to the ICC in 2018. Earlier this year, she became a deputy to the ICC's president, Tomoko Akane, who issued the arrest warrant for Putin in March 2023. Russia opened an investigation into Akane and other judges soon after.

The arrest warrant against Alapini-Gansou, who was one of the judges who issued arrest warrants against Moscow's proxies in South Ossetia over alleged war crimes during the 2008 Georgia war, comes only days after a Russian warrant in absentia for another ICC judge, Haykel Ben Mahfoudh.

Ben Mahfoudh was a member of a panel that issued an arrest warrant for former Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces Valery Gerasimov over suspected war crimes in Ukraine.

The Tunisian lawyer and a specialist in international law was elected to the ICC for a nine-year term in March 2024.

The ICC in March also issued arrest warrants for two Russian military commanders for carrying out strikes on Ukrainian electricity infrastructure during the winter of 2022- 2023.

Lieutenant General Sergei Kobylash and Admiral Viktor Sokolov "are each allegedly responsible" for a number of war crimes, including "directing attacks at civilian sites," the court said.

MILITARY & TECH