THE RUSSO-UKRAINE WAR BRIEF
Day 1116
Slava Ukraini! In early 2022 I began a Telegram channel aggregating news from a number of sources daily on the war in Ukraine. In June 2023 I began providing a daily draft for the Ukraine War Brief Podcast collecting news from over 70 sources daily, which formed the basis of the script. While the Podcast no longer exists I have continued to make this Brief available for my followers here on Substack for those who wish to keep up with the news from the war.
All the latest news on the Russo-Ukraine War 6 days per week
ALONG THE CONTACT LINE
GSAFU Morning Report
For: Mar 15, 2025
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in its Operational Information update at 08:00 on Mar 15 stated that day 1116 of the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation against Ukraine had begun.
The situation on the line of combat remains tense in some sectors. Ukrainian defenders continue to actively counteract the Russian aggressor, causing them significant losses in personnel, equipment and technology. Exhausting the enemy along the entire front line and continuing to disrupt the plans of Russian occupiers to advance deeper into the territory of Ukraine.
During the past day, 149 combat engagements took place.
Over the past 24 hours, the enemy carried out 1 missile strike, 93 air strikes, used 2,402 drones and fired approximately 5,400 artillery shells across the positions of Ukrainian forces and civilians.
Air Force Daily Report
130 ENEMY UAVS SHOT DOWN, 38 SIMULATOR UAVS FAILED TO REACH THEIR TARGETS (LOCATIONALLY LOST)
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On the night of Mar 15, 2025 (from 19:30 on Mar 14), the enemy attacked with two Iskander-M ballistic missiles from the Kursk region - Russia and 178 Shahed attack UAVs and simulator drones of various types from the directions: Orel, Millerovo, Kursk, Bryansk, Primorsko-Akhtarsk - Russia, Chauda - Crimea.
The air attack was repelled by aviation, anti-aircraft missile troops, electronic warfare units, and mobile fire groups of the Air Force and Defense Forces of Ukraine.
As of 08:30, it was confirmed that 130 Shahed attack UAVs and drones of other types were shot down in Kharkiv, Poltava, Sumy, Chernihiv, Cherkasy, Kyiv, Zhytomyr, Khmelnytskyi, Kirovohrad, Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia, Odesa and Mykolaiv regions.
38 enemy drone simulators were lost in location (without negative consequences).
The Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Odesa, Sumy, Chernihiv, and Kyiv regions were affected by the Russian attack.
Combat Operations in the Kursk Sector, Russian Federation
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a US based think tank, in its Mar 14 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment reported that Russian forces marginally advanced towards the international border in Kursk Oblast on Mar 14, but Ukrainian forces still maintain limited positions in Kursk Oblast. Geolocated footage published on March 13 indicates that Russian forces advanced within Zaoleshenka (immediately west of Sudzha).
Russian forces likely also seized Goncharovka (west of Sudzha), given that NASA Fire Information for Resource Management (FIRMS) data from Mar 14 indicates heavy fighting in the area and that Russian sources recently claimed that Russian forces seized the settlement. Other Russian sources continued to claim that Russian forces seized Zaoleshenka, Goncharovka, and Rubanshchina (west of Sudzha), and that Russian forces advanced near Guyevo (south of Sudzha) and up to the southern outskirts of Oleshnya (southwest of Sudzha along the international border).
A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces have not yet entered Gogolevka (southwest of Sudzha along the international border), and another milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces also maintain positions within Oleshnya, Guyevo, and Gornal (southwest of Guyevo along the international border). Russian forces continued ground attacks near Kurilovka (south of Sudzha), and a milblogger claimed that Russian forces are regrouping for further advances within Kursk Oblast. Elements of the Russian "Kurskiye Vityaz" Assault Battalion, reportedly of the "Pyatnashka" International Volunteer Brigade (51st Combined Arms Army [CAA], formerly 1st Donetsk People's Republic Army Corps [DNR AC], Southern Military District [SMD]), are reportedly operating near Sudzha, and elements of the 1st Battalion of the Russian 9th Motorized Rifle Regiment (18th Motorized Rifle Division, 11th AC, Leningrad Military District [LMD]) are reportedly operating near Malaya Loknya (north of Sudzha).
The Khortytsia operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the northeastern part of Ukraine. )
Sumy Sector: Russian forces also reportedly continued to advance in northern Sumy Oblast. Ukraine's State Border Service Spokesperson Andriy Demchenko stated on Mar 14 that small Russian assault groups are continuing to attack into northern Sumy Oblast and are trying to advance towards Novenke and Zhuravka (both northeast of Sumy City). Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces advanced east of Novenke and into northern Basivka (northeast of Sumy City).
A Russian milblogger reiterated claims on Mar 14 that Russian forces may attempt to create a "sanitary zone" in Sumy Oblast in the future. Ukraine's Pivnich (Northern) Operational Command Spokesperson Colonel Vadym Mysnyk responded to recent speculation about the possibility of a Russian cross border attack into Chernihiv Oblast and stated that Ukrainian forces have the situation along the international border in Chernihiv Oblast under control and that Russian sabotage and reconnaissance groups have operated in the area "for a long time."
Siversk Sector: Russian forces recently advanced in the Siversk direction.
Assessed Russian advances: Geolocated footage published on March 14 indicates that Russian forces recently advanced in eastern Vasyukivka (southwest of Siversk).
Toretsk Sector: Russian and Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the Toretsk direction.
Assessed Russian advances: Geolocated footage published on Mar 13 indicates that Russian forces recently advanced in the fields west of Ozaryanivka (northeast of Toretsk).
Geolocated footage published on Mar 14 indicates that Russian forces recently advanced westward in a forested area south of Onezhska Street in southwestern Toretsk.
ISW recessed assessed Russian advances near the Tsentralna Mine from its map in western Toretsk, as ISW has not observed evidence of an enduring Russian presence in this area, and because ISW has observed Ukrainian counterattacks in central Toretsk. These changes likely did not occur in the past 24 hours. Russian milbloggers published maps on March 13 and 14 claiming Ukrainian forces have counterattacked and seized positions in this area.
The Tavria operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the central-eastern and southeastern part of Ukraine.)
Pokrovsk Sector : Russian forces recently advanced in the Pokrovsk direction.
Assessed Russian advances: Geolocated footage published on Mar 12 and 13 indicates that Russian forces recently marginally advanced in southern Zvirove (south of Pokrovsk) and south of Udachne (southwest of Pokrovsk).
The Odesa operational-strategic group
(Responsible for Kherson, Qırım, (also known as Crimea) and the Black Sea.)
There have been no major changes to the combat environment since our last report.
TEMPORARILY OCCUPIED TERRITORIES
Nothing major to report.
THE HOME FRONT
Russia attacks Ukraine with 178 drones overnight, targets energy infrastructure.
Ukrainian defense forces intercepted 130 out of the 178 Russian attack drones launched at Ukraine during an overnight assault on March 14 that included attacks on energy infrastructure, the Kyiv Independent reports citing local authorities.
The attack involved two Iskander-M ballistic missiles launched from Kursk Oblast and 178 Shahed-type attack drones along with various decoy unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), according to Ukraine's Air Force.
The wave of attacks began at 7:30 p.m. local time on Mar 14 and continued throughout the night. Russia launched the drones from multiple locations including Orel, Millerovo, Kursk, Bryansk, and Primorsko-Akhtarsk in Russia, as well as Chauda in occupied Crimea.
The attack caused damage in the Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Odesa, Sumy, Chernihiv, and Kyiv regions. Officials have yet to release information about casualties or details of the damage entailed. Reports indicate that the Russian attack hit Ukrainian energy infrastructure in Dnipropetrovsk and Odesa Oblast.
Russia has been steadily expanding its air campaigns against Ukraine in recent months, with bombardments by flocks of Shahed drones a nightly occurrence.
Ukraine has recently had some success in counterattacks. On the night of Mar 10, over 330 Ukrainian drones made it to Moscow. Subsequent strikes have hit Russia's fossil fuel infrastructure.
RUSSIAN WORLD
Russian Favorability Toward U.S. Nearly Doubles Since Trump’s Return.
Almost a third of Russians now view the United States favorably, about double the share from before U.S. President Donald Trump took office in January, according to a Levada Center survey released Thursday, the Moscow Times reports.
Positive attitudes toward the U.S. had plunged to 12% in May 2023 — the lowest level since Levada began tracking sentiments in 1997. Attitudes have remained significantly low following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
The latest survey, conducted in late February among 1,615 respondents across 50 Russian regions, found that 30% of Russian adults now have a positive view of the U.S., up from 16% in September. Meanwhile, negative views of the U.S. have fallen sharply from 72% in September to 51%.
The share of respondents who were unsure also rose from 13% to 20% over the same period.
Since Trump took office in January and pledged to broker a swift end to the war in Ukraine, Russian state media have increasingly portrayed him as a pragmatic leader open to engagement with Moscow. However, reports suggest the Kremlin has quietly instructed media outlets to scale back their positive coverage of Trump.
Historically, Russian attitudes toward the U.S. have fluctuated in response to global events.
In 2008, after the Russo-Georgian war, U.S. favorability among Russians plummeted as the Bush administration condemned Moscow’s actions and sent humanitarian aid to Georgia. However, positive sentiment later rebounded, peaking at 63% three years later, according to Levada.
A similar decline followed the 2014 annexation of Crimea and Russia’s support of separatists in eastern Ukraine, after which the U.S. imposed sanctions against Russia.
The largest post-annexation surge in positive sentiment toward the U.S. came in the summer of 2018 after the Helsinki Summit, where Trump publicly sided with President Vladimir Putin over U.S. intelligence agencies on alleged election interference.
RELATED INTERNATIONAL NEWS
Ukraine's Zelenskyy says there is now a good chance to end war.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on Friday that he saw a good chance to end the war with Russia after Ukraine accepted a U.S. proposal for a 30-day interim ceasefire and Moscow said it would only agree if certain conditions were met, Reuters reported on Mar 14.
"Right now, we have a good chance to end this war quickly and secure peace. We have solid security understandings with our European partners," Zelenskyy said on Twitter.
"We are now close to the first step in ending any war – silence," he said, referring to a truce.
Speaking to reporters, Zelenskyy urged the U.S. and other allies to apply pressure on Moscow, reiterating his belief that Russian President Vladimir Putin will delay reaching a ceasefire as long as possible.
"If there is a strong response from the United States, they will not let them play around. And if there are steps that Russia is not afraid of, they will delay the process," Zelenskyy told media.
He said that the ceasefire along a more than 1,000-kilometer (600-mile) frontline could be controlled with U.S. help via satellites and intelligence. Washington resumed intelligence sharing and military aid after U.S. and Ukrainian officials met in Saudi Arabia this week and Ukraine accepted the ceasefire.
Zelenskiy also said that officials at that meeting discussed the issue of territory, but a difficult dialog would be required to resolve it.
"The issue of territories is the most difficult after the ceasefire," Zelenskiy said at a media briefing.
With the war is in its fourth year, Russian forces control nearly a fifth of Ukrainian territory
"The ceasefire unblocks the way for the sides to end the war. And the territories ... will be the point that makes it possible to end the war after this issue is resolved," the Ukrainian president said.
Moscow has demanded that Kyiv permanently cede territory claimed by Russia including Crimea and four other regions, a position Ukraine has rejected.
Zelenskyy said he was discussing with Kyiv's allies future security guarantees and also economic support, adding that 100% air defence cover would be required as deterrence in a peace deal.
UK Prime Minister Starmer begins summit of Ukraine allies.
U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer has kicked off an online summit on March 15 of the "coalition of the willing," who could go on to secure Ukraine in the event of a peace deal with Russia. The Kyiv Independent reports.
Starmer urged attendees to "keep the pressure up" on Russian President Vladimir Putin in his opening remarks.
The ongoing virtual summit is convening countries who could form a post-war peacekeeping force within Ukraine. As of March 13, the potential coalition consists of 37 countries, with the U.K. and France largely taking the lead as the only countries who have publicly committed to sending troops to Ukraine post-war.
Twenty-five nations are attending today, per the U.K. government, which wrote that the meeting would seek "concrete commitments."
The European Union is by and large increasingly taking point on securing Ukraine's future. Following on a similar meeting at the outset of March, the summit is taking place just days after a U.S. delegation was in Moscow to discuss a ceasefire deal with Putin.
Starmer in a statement on March 14 warned Putin against "playing games" with these ceasefire negotiations. Putin has maintained maximalist demands for Ukrainian to cede territory beyond what Russia has actually taken, as well as demilitarization.
Starmer himself has become a leading light within European politics for his advocacy of Ukraine, as well as his singular talent at placating U.S. President Donald Trump. The U.K. and the U.S. have what's referred to the "Special Relationship" — deep relations in trade, security and defense, and intelligence.
A Starmer spokesperson said last week that, "We’ve always said that Ukraine, at the other end of this process, must emerge as a sovereign territory."
The summit represents a pivot in the West's strategy toward the war in Ukraine to planning for post-conflict stability rather than solely focusing on immediate military support.
Putin has been hostile to the presence of foreign soldiers in Ukraine to secure any sort of peace post-war. Ukraine maintains that without firm security guarantees from the West, Putin will use any cessation in hostilities to build up and attack Ukraine again.
MILITARY & TECH
Zelenskyy - Ukraine’s "Long Neptune" missile has been tested and successfully used in combat.
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that the new Ukrainian missile "Long Neptune" has been tested and successfully used in combat, Censor.NET reports citing Zelenskyy on Telegram.
"Today there were also reports on our missile program. We have significant results. "Long Neptune" has been tested and successfully used in combat. A new Ukrainian missile, an accurate strike. The distance is a thousand kilometers," he said.
Zelenskyy thanked Ukrainian developers, manufacturers and the military.
"We continue to work to guarantee Ukrainian security. And today there was a report by the Minister of Defense of Ukraine on new support packages from partners. We are ensuring the supply of artillery. I am grateful to all partners who help," the president added.
This follows an earlier statement from Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal that Ukraine has increased the capabilities of the defense-industrial complex.
Before that, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy noted the successful testing of a new domestically produced missile "Ruta".
“Achilles” Regiment Destroys Four Russian Pantsir-S1 with Darts Drones.
The operators of the 429th Separate Regiment of Unmanned Systems “Achilles” successfully targeted and destroyed four Russian Pantsir-S1 anti-aircraft missile systems using Darts drones, Militarnyi reports.
The video footage, shared by the Serhiy Prytula Foundation, shows the strikes.
According to the report, some of the drones were purchased as part of the “Hit the Bullseye” training camp, which lasted until October 8, 2024.
The video footage reveals that the drone operators aimed at the combat module and radar to inflict maximum damage.
All four systems were hit while on combat duty, as indicated by the operational radar onboard the vehicles.
Although only one segment of the video clearly shows the impact, it appears that the strike caused the anti-aircraft system to spontaneously activate, suggesting that the drone hit a critical component of the Pantsir-S1.
Darts are aircraft-type kamikaze drones developed by a Ukrainian manufacturer, using components from FPV drones.
With speeds of up to 160 km/h and a 4-kilogram warhead, they have a wingspan of 1.9 meters and a 1.5-meter-long fuselage.
The drones have a flight range of 40-60 km, depending on the payload, and cost approximately UAH 39,000 per unit.
In January, operators of naval strike drones also successfully targeted a Pantsir-S1 system in the Kherson region, with the possibility of critical damage or destruction due to fire.
It is unlikely that a strike by an FPV drone would have resulted in the instant destruction of the system. However, this does not rule out the possibility of critical damage and a loss due to fire.
The FPV drones were likely delivered to the target via unmanned drone carriers, the existence of which was revealed in December 2024.
The first public demonstration of this modification of Ukrainian naval drones occurred during an attack on enemy-captured gas platforms in the Black Sea.
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