THE RUSSO-UKRAINE WAR BRIEF
For: 2024-10-26
Slava Ukraini! In early 2022 I began a Telegram channel aggregating news from a number of sources daily on the war in Ukraine. In June 2023 I began providing a daily draft for the Ukraine War Brief Podcast collecting news from over 70 sources daily, much of which formed the basis of the script. While the Podcast no longer exists I have continued to make this Brief available both on my own Substack and The People’s Media for those who wish to keep up with events on a daily basis.
All the latest news on the Russo-Ukraine War 6 days per week
ALONG THE CONTACT LINE
GSAFU Morning Report
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in its Operational Information update at 22:00 on Oct 25 stated that day 976 of the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation against Ukraine was about to begin.
During the past day,142 combat engagements took place. Over the past 24 hours, the enemy carried out 1 missile strike, 70 air strikes, 600 drone strikes and more than 3,000 artillery strikes across the positions of Ukrainian forces.
At the same time, Ukrainian soldiers continue to inflict losses in manpower and equipment on the occupying troops, exhausting the enemy along the entire front line and continue to disrupt the plans of Russian occupiers to advance deep into the territory of Ukraine.
Air Force Daily Report
On the night of October 26, 2024 (from 19:00 on October 25), the enemy will attack Ukraine with various types of missiles, "Shahed" type UAVs and unspecified drones.
Radio engineering troops of the Air Force detected and escorted 98 enemy air attack vehicles:
- 3 Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missiles (from Crimea);
- 2 Kh-59 guided air missiles (from the airspace of the Bryansk Region - Russian Federation);
- 2 rockets of an unknown type (from the Belgorod Region - Russia);
- 91 enemy unmanned aerial vehicles (launch areas: Kursk, Orel - Russian Federation).
The air attack is repulsed by aviation, anti-aircraft missile forces, electronic warfare units, mobile fire groups of the Air Force and the Defense Forces of Ukraine.
The enemy hit the civil infrastructure objects of Sumy Oblast and Dnipro with rockets. Unfortunately, there are casualties among the civilian population.
As for the attack UAVs, as of 12:00, as of 12:00, the downing of 44 enemy UAVs in the Kirovohrad, Sumy, Chernihiv, Kyiv, Cherkasy, Vinnytsia, Zhytomyr, Khmelnytsky and Kursk regions was confirmed.
One UAV left the airspace in the direction of Belarus. 44 Russian drones were lost in location, another 1 enemy UAV was lost in the airspace of Ukraine.
The Russian Border Incursion
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a US based think tank, in its Oct 25 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment reported that Ukrainian and Russian forces recently advanced in Ukraine's main salient in Kursk Oblast amid continued fighting on Oct 25. Geolocated footage published on Oct 25 indicates that Ukrainian forces recently advanced west of Borki (southeast of Sudzha).
Additional geolocated footage published on Oct 25 indicates that Russian forces recently recaptured positions east of Obukhovka (southeast of Korenevo). Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces also advanced near Novoivanovka (southeast of Korenevo) and Plekhovo (southeast of Sudzha). A Kremlin-affiliated milblogger claimed that reports that Russian forces recaptured Darino (southeast of Korenevo and southeast of Lyubimovka) are unconfirmed. Russian sources, including the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD), claimed that Ukrainian forces unsuccessfully counterattacked southeast of Korenevo near Novoivanovka, Zeleny Shlyakh, and Alexandriya; east of Sudzha near Russkaya Konopelka; and southeast of Sudzha near Plekhovo.
A Russian milblogger claimed on Oct 24 that Ukrainian forces seized positions south of Kireyevka (north of Sudzha and on the northeastern edge of the Ukrainian main salient in Kursk Oblast).
Fighting continued in Glushkovsky Raion west of the main Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast on Oct 25, but there were no confirmed changes to the frontline. Russian sources, including the Russian MoD, claimed that Ukrainian forces unsuccessfully attacked with one tank and two armored fighting vehicles near Novy Put (south of Glushkovo). A Russian milblogger claimed that there are unconfirmed reports that some Ukrainian forces withdrew beyond the international border into Ukraine following fighting near Novy Put, but ISW has not observed confirmation of this claim.
The Khortytsia operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the northeastern part of Ukraine. )
Kharkiv Sector: Over the last day Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 3 Russian attacks in the area of Vovchansk.
Kupyansk Sector: Russian Forces carried out 13 offensive actions against Ukrainian defensive positions near Holubivka, Stepova Novoselivka and Vyshneve. 9 engagements continue.
Lyman Sector: Russian Forces carried out 24 offensive actions against Ukrainian defensive positions near Hrekivka, Terny, Torske and the Serebryanskyy Forest. 4 engagements continue.
Siversk Sector: Russian forces carried out 3 unsuccessful assaults in the vicinity of Ivano-Darivka and Vyimka.
Kramatorsk Sector: Russian forces carried out 1 unsuccessful offensive action near Chasiv Yar.
Toretsk Sector: Russian forces carried out 4 unsuccessful offensive actions with air support near Toretsk.
The Tavria operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the central-eastern and southeastern part of Ukraine.)
Pokrovsk Sector : Russian forces conducted 43 attacks against Ukrainian defences concentrating in the vicinity of Myrolyubivka, Lysivka and Selydove. 9 engagements are ongoing.
Kurakhove Sector: Russian forces conducted 31 attacks against Ukrainian defences in the vicinity of Novodmytrivka, Hostre and Katerynivka. 6 engagements continue.
Vremivka Sector: Russian forces made 18 assaults against Ukrainian positions near Novoukrainka and Bohoyavlenka. 5 engagements continue.
Orikhiv Sector: There has been no significant change in the combat environment in the last 24 hours.
The Odesa operational-strategic group
(Responsible for Kherson, Qırım, (also known as Crimea) and the Black Sea.)
Prydniprovsk Sector: In this sector, over the last day, Russian forces made 3 unsuccessful attempts to dislodge Ukrainian units from their positions on the left bank of the Dnipro.
TEMPORARILY OCCUPIED TERRITORIES
Nothing major to report.
THE HOME FRONT
Russian missile attack on Dnipro: death toll rises to 4, including child, 20 people injured
Destruction was recorded at several locations in the city as a result of the nighttime missile attack. Ukrainska Pravda reported citing Serhii Lysak, Head of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast Military Administration. A two-storey residential building and a garage were destroyed, 13 apartment buildings, 2 houses and 30 cars were damaged. The strike also damaged hospital buildings.
Residential houses, garages, cars and a medical facility were damaged. Emergency services and law enforcement officers are documenting another Russian war crime at the scene of the strike.
A residential building with eight apartments was destroyed by a Russian missile. In total, 4 people were killed and 20 others were injured in Dnipro. Among those trapped under the rubble were the police officer himself and his entire family. He and his youngest daughter were rescued. The girl was taken to hospital, while the policeman, despite his concussion and injuries, remained at the scene of the missile strike and helped to clear the rubble, looking for survivors.
2 killed 1 Injured due to Russian shelling in Kherson
Since the beginning of October 26, Russian attacks in Kherson region have killed two people in Kindiyka and Bilozerka. A man in Kherson was seriously injured. Ukrinform reports.
This was reported by the Office of the Prosecutor General on Telegram, as per Ukrinform.
"At around 00:40 on October 26, the Russian forces dropped an explosive from a drone in Kindiyka, resulting in fatal injuries to a man. At around 2:40, Bilozerka was shelled. A woman’s body was recovered from under the rubble of a ruined house," the statement reads.
Also, the Russian forces shelled Kherson overnight. A man who was inside his home during the attack was taken to the hospital in critical condition.
Chief of Kherson’s military administration Roman Mrochko shared images of the aftermath of the attack on the regional centre.
"Last night, the invaders destroyed an elderly couple’s home in Kherson’s Korabelnyi district. Their son was trapped under the rubble and has been hospitalised. The elderly woman and her bedridden husband were also taken to the hospital," Mrochko stated.
RUSSIAN WORLD
Russia’s Central Bank raised its key interest rate to historic 21%
Russia’s Central Bank raised its key interest rate from 19% to a historic 21% on Friday, taking it even higher than the emergency rate initially introduced after the full-scale invasion of Ukraine as officials scrambled to shield the economy from Western sanctions. The Moscow Times reported on Friday.
A rate increase of 1% had been widely anticipated by analysts, as inflation continues to weigh on Russia’s economy amid surging military spending for the war in Ukraine. But Friday’s increase of 2%, coming after multiple rate hikes over the past year, signals increasingly aggressive efforts by the Central Bank to curb inflation.
“Inflation expectations continue to increase,” policymakers said in a statement. “Growth in domestic demand is significantly outstripping the capabilities to expand the supply of goods and services.”
“Further tightening of monetary policy is required to ensure the return of inflation to the target and reduce inflation expectations,” the bank added, noting that it may further increase rates at its next meeting on Nov. 6. Russia’s Central Bank sets its inflation target at 4%.
The regulator said seasonally adjusted price growth last month rose to 9.8% year-on-year from 7.5% in August. Core inflation, meanwhile, increased to 9.1% from 7.7% over the same period.
“Over the medium-term horizon, the balance of inflation risks is still significantly tilted to the upside,” the Central Bank said Friday, noting that it expects annual inflation between 8% and 8.5% by the end of 2024.
INTERNATIONAL NEWS
EU plans to create its own intelligence agency
The European Union should gradually build a fully fledged intelligence body to better counter threats from foreign actors and respond more forcefully to espionage within its borders, according to a recent draft of a report requested by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. Bloomberg reports.
The new intelligence service would gather its own intelligence about threats originating beyond EU borders that target the bloc as a whole, according to people familiar with the report. The aim is to avoid overlap with national agencies and help counter espionage aimed at EU institutions.
Earlier this year, von der Leyen tasked former Finnish president Sauli Niinisto with delivering recommendations on how to improve the bloc’s readiness to confront a variety of possible crises. He is expected to release his findings as early as next week and the draft is still subject to changes.
The report is a part of the bloc’s effort to boost its defence and security readiness amid growing a set of risks, including Russian President Vladimir Putin’s actions along the EU’s eastern members, potential spillover from conflicts in the Middle East and concerns about China’s assertive rise in the East. The bloc has also become more wary of new hybrid threats, such as waves of migrants being sent into the EU by Russia and Belarus to destabilise member states.
The EU lacks a proper intelligence service, with officials currently analysing public available sources and information received from member states. That limits the capacity of the EU institutions to detect potential threats and react, the report found.
Putin says Western “Ukraine fatigue” encourages Russia
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a US based think tank, in its Oct 25 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment reported that Russian President Vladimir Putin signalled that Western “Ukraine fatigue” is encouraging Russia to continue its full-scale invasion of Ukraine and pursue its theory of victory predicated on Russia outlasting Western support for Ukraine. Putin responded to a question during an interview with Russian state TV channel Rossiya 1 on Oct 25 following the conclusion of the BRICS summit in Kazan, Republic of Tatarstan on whether exhausted Ukrainian troops, Western war fatigue, or Russian military’s power is contributing to the success of Russian theatre-wide offensive operations.
Putin responded by stating that Russia should continue to double down on its war effort in Ukraine and not pay attention to discussions of the enemy's fatigue. Putin added that the West is “beginning to realistically assess the situation around Ukraine” and “change its rhetoric” about the need for Russia’s “strategic defeat,” and that Russia can “only praise” the West for this rhetorical shift away from complete Russian defeat in Ukraine. Putin later stated in the interview that any outcome of Russia’s war in Ukraine must be in Russia’s favour and be based on the "realities on the battlefield," indicating that Russia remains committed to its original goal of forcing the Ukrainian government to capitulate and destroying Ukraine’s statehood and military and that Western hesitance in support for Ukraine only encourages Russia's commitment to this goal.
ISW continues to assess that Putin’s theory of victory rests on a critical assumption that the West will abandon Ukraine to Russian victory, either of its own accord or in response to Russian efforts to persuade the West to do so, and that it is far from clear that the West will do so.
G7 leaders agree to deliver $50 bln in loans to Ukraine as soon as December
Leaders of the Group of Seven wealthy democracies on Friday reached consensus on delivery of some $50 billion in loans to Ukraine backed by the earnings from frozen Russian sovereign assets starting as early as December. Reuters reports.
"These loans will be serviced and repaid by future flows of extraordinary revenues stemming from the immobilisation of Russian Sovereign Assets," the G7 statement said.
"Our aim is to begin disbursing the funds by the end of the year," said the statement, which was released as global finance chiefs were meeting in Washington for the International Monetary Fund and World Bank annual meetings.
An accompanying statement from G7 finance ministers said that the loans would be disbursed through a series of bilateral loans, starting as soon as Dec. 1 and continuing through the end of 2027 "in installments that will reflect Ukraine’s urgent financing needs."
Each bilateral loan would enter into force no later than June 30, 2025, which provides some timing flexibility for G7 members to arrange details.
The statement announcing the principles and some technical details did not provide specific amounts for the bilateral loans but said additional details will be issued in a term sheet to be distributed in coming days.
The U.S. on Wednesday announced it would give Ukraine a $20 billion loan during December, timing meant to shield the loan funds from a potential claw-back should Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump win the November U.S. election.
Trump has vowed to "get out" of Ukraine's war with Russia. The next U.S. president would not take office until January.
Another $20 billion loan is expected to come from the EU, home to G7 members Germany, France and Italy, with the remaining $10 billion split between Canada, Britain and Japan.
"We will stand by Ukraine for as long as it takes," the finance ministers' statement said.
The loans will be disbursed through multiple channels, including a Macro-Financial Assistance Loan from the EU, the IMF's Multi-Donor Administered Account for Ukraine and a newly created Financial Intermediary Fund for Ukraine at the World Bank, the statement said.
Georgian Dream founder warns of “catastrophe” if pro-EU opposition wins in Georgia
Founder and honorary chairman of the pro-Russian Georgian Dream party, Bidzina Ivanishvili, warned on Saturday, Oct. 26, that if the pro-European opposition forces win in Georgia's parliamentary elections, the country faces “catastrophe and ruin,” reports Echo of the Caucasus.
He referred to opposition politicians as "agents of a foreign state." Ivanishvili repeated Russian narratives, claiming that if pro-European forces win the election, Georgia risks being dragged into war.
"You know there’s a war next door. The country managing these agents, unfortunately active in our politics, has an urgent agenda—to pull Georgia into the conflict one way or another. I assure you, it won’t take long... we’ll face catastrophe and ruin in this country," Ivanishvili told reporters.
He referred to opposition politicians as "agents of a foreign state." Ivanishvili repeated Russian narratives, claiming that if pro-European forces win the election, Georgia risks being dragged into war.
"You know there’s a war next door. The country managing these agents, unfortunately active in our politics, has an urgent agenda—to pull Georgia into the conflict one way or another. I assure you, it won’t take long... we’ll face catastrophe and ruin in this country," Ivanishvili told reporters.
MILITARY & TECH
Rheinmetall Expands Defense Manufacturing in Ukraine
Rheinmetall has launched a significant expansion in Ukraine, constructing four weapons manufacturing plants. According to CEO Armin Papperger, the first of these facilities is now operational and will deliver its initial batch of the Lynx infantry fighting vehicles by the year’s end. Defense Express reports.
This step marks a crucial boost in Ukraine’s production of modern armoured vehicles, essential to strengthening its military infrastructure.
In addition to the Lynx production facility, Rheinmetall is building plants dedicated to manufacturing gunpowder and ammunition, further addressing Ukraine’s demand for a steady supply of essential military materials.
The final facility planned in the series will focus on producing advanced air defence systems, a key element for enhancing the country’s security against aerial threats.
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