THE RUSSO-UKRAINE WAR BRIEF

Day 1172 of the full scale invasion

May 10, 2025

Slava Ukraini! In early 2022 I began a Telegram channel aggregating news from a number of sources daily on the war in Ukraine. In June 2023 I began providing a daily draft for the Ukraine War Brief Podcast collecting news from over 70 sources daily, which formed the basis of the script. While the Podcast no longer exists I have continued to make this Brief available for my followers here on Substack for those who wish to keep up with the news from the war.

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ALONG THE CONTACT LINE

GSAFU Morning Report

For: May 10, 2025

The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in its Operational Information update at 08:00 on May 10 stated that day 1172 of the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation against Ukraine had begun.

The situation on the line of combat remains tense in some sectors. Ukrainian defenders continue to actively counteract the Russian aggressor, causing them significant losses in personnel, equipment and technology. Exhausting the enemy along the entire front line and continuing to disrupt the plans of Russian occupiers to advance deeper into the territory of Ukraine.

During the past day,196 combat engagements took place.

Over the past 24 hours, the enemy carried out missile strikes, 34 air strikes, used 2,174 attack drones and fired approximately 4,100 artillery shells across the positions of Ukrainian forces and civilians.

Air Force Daily Report

Russian tactical aviation has continued conducting attacks throughout Ukraine despite the announced “ceasefire” The attacks are ongoing hence no Daily report has as yet been issued.

Combat Operations in the Russian Federation

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a US based think tank, in its May 9 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment reported that:

Sumy - Kursk Border: Ukrainian forces recently advanced in Kursk Oblast on May 9.

Geolocated footage published on May 8 indicates that Ukrainian forces recently advanced in southwestern Tetkino (southwest of Glushkovo). ISW is unable to assess when this advance occurred.

The Khortytsia operational-strategic group

(Responsible for the northeastern part of Ukraine. )

There have been no major changes to the combat environment since our last report.

The Tavria operational-strategic group

(Responsible for the central-eastern and southeastern part of Ukraine.)

Pokrovsk Sector : Russian forces recently advanced in the Pokrovsk direction.

Geolocated footage published on May 8 indicates that Russian forces recently advanced into central Zvirove (southwest of Pokrovsk).

Novopavlivka Sector: Russian forces recently advanced in the Novopavlivka direction.

Geolocated footage published on May 9 indicates that Russian forces recently advanced in central Kotlyarivka (northeast of Novopavlivka).

Kurakhove Sector: Russian forces recently advanced in the Kurakhove direction.

Geolocated footage published on May 9 indicates that Russian forces recently advanced along Likarniana Street in central Bahatyr (west of Kurakhove)

Velyka Novosilka Sector: Russian forces recently advanced in the Velyka Novosilka direction.

Geolocated footage published on May 7 indicates that Russian forces advanced southeast of Dniproenerhiya (north of Velyka Novosilka)

Zaporizhia Sector: Russian forces recently marginally advanced in western Zaporizhia.

Geolocated footage published on May 6 indicates that Russian forces recently marginally advanced in western Stepove (southwest of Orikhiv).

The Odesa operational-strategic group

(Responsible for Kherson, Qırım, (also known as Crimea) and the Black Sea.)

There have been no major changes to the combat environment since our last report.

TEMPORARILY OCCUPIED TERRITORIES

Nothing major to report.

THE HOME FRONT

6 senior National Guard officials suspended from posts amid corruption probe.

Six senior officials from the logistics division of Ukraine’s National Guard have been suspended from their posts, the Interior Ministry said on May 10, amid the launch of an internal investigation, the Kyiv Independent reported on May 10.

"Full cooperation is being provided to the investigation," the Interior Ministry wrote.

Ukrainian investigative outlet ZN.UA reported on May 10 that their law enforcement sources confirmed an ongoing probe by the National Anti-Corruption Bureau (NABU) into suspected embezzlement, money laundering, and bribery, under relevant articles of the Criminal Code.

Oleksandr Pivnenko, the commander of the National Guard, is suspected of receiving a bribe of up to Hr 190 million ($4.6 million) in collusion with other officials, ZN.UA reported. The payments were allegedly made in exchange for facilitating contract awards and favouring specific entrepreneurs in public procurement tenders.

The director and deputy director of the logistics department of the National Guard are also suspected of embezzlement and money laundering, ZN.UA reported.

Investigators suspect the two officials of embezzling Hr 199 million ($4.8 million) from National Guard funds. According to the probe, the officials allegedly purchased FV-series tracked armored personnel carriers at inflated prices.

Ukraine's military has seen a number of procurement scandals since the start of Russia's full-scale war.

Earlier on April 2, Ukraine's anti-corruption bodies announced charges in a corruption case involving overpriced food purchases by the Defense Ministry between 2022 and 2023.

RUSSIAN WORLD

Iran to send Russia launchers for short-range missiles, sources say.

Iran is preparing to deliver in the near future launchers for short-range ballistic missiles that the U.S. said Tehran sent to Russia last year for use against Ukraine, Reuters reported on May 9 citing two Western security officials and a regional official.

The delivery of the Fath-360 launchers - if it occurs - would help support Russia's grinding assault on its neighbor and reaffirm the deepening security ties between Moscow and Tehran.

With a 75-mile (120-km) range, the Fath-360 would give Moscow's forces a new weapon to fire at Ukrainian frontline troops, nearby military targets, and population centers close to the border with Russia, analysts said.

The U.S. last September said that Iran delivered the missiles to Russia on nine Russian-flagged ships - which it sanctioned - and three sources told Reuters at that time that the launchers were not included.
The Western security officials and the regional official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the delivery of the Fath-360 launchers was imminent.

They declined to provide further details of the pending transfer, including why they thought the launchers were not delivered with the missiles.

Russia's defense ministry and Iran's mission to the United Nations did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

The U.S. National Security Council referred inquiries to the State Department, which did not respond immediately. The CIA declined comment.

Russia and Iran have previously denied that Tehran had shipped the missiles or any other arms to aid the full-scale invasion of Ukraine that Moscow launched in February 2022. U.S., Ukrainian and European officials say Iran has provided Russia thousands of drones and artillery shells.

In an apparent reference to the Fath-360s, U.S. Army General Christopher Cavoli, the commander of U.S. Central Command, last month told U.S. lawmakers that Iran had donated to Russia more than 400 short-range ballistic missiles.

There have been no public reports of Iran transferring any other kinds of short-range ballistic missiles to Moscow or of Russian forces using the Fath-360.

Fighting continues despite Moscow's truce - Wounded Ukrainian soldiers ask: What ceasefire?

Russia said on Saturday that fighting had been taking place in four regions of Ukraine despite this week's unilateral ceasefire by Moscow, saying its troops had been forced to respond to Ukrainian attacks, Reuters reports.

Ukraine says Russia has continued to attack it and has called the ceasefire a farce.

Ukraine did not join the truce but is calling instead for a 30-day ceasefire that U.S. President Donald Trump is urging the warring sides to agree.

Reuters could not verify battlefield accounts by either side. The 72-hour ceasefire, declared by President Vladimir Putin to mark the 80th anniversary of victory over Nazi Germany, expires at midnight (2100 GMT) on Saturday.

In a statement, the Russian defence ministry said its forces were sticking to the ceasefire - which Ukraine denies - and remaining at previously occupied lines, but that they were retaliating against "violations" by Ukraine.

It alleged that Kyiv's forces had mounted attacks in the Sumy, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions of Ukraine and near 12 different settlements in Donetsk region, which it said Russian troops had repelled.

A wounded Ukrainian soldier at a field hospital in Zaporizhzhia region told Reuters on Friday night that "there hasn't been any ceasefire" and nothing had changed. "Shelling has continued just as before, drones are flying just like before," he said.

The Russian statement also said that Ukraine had tried four times to break across the border into Russia's Kursk and Belgorod regions, but did not specify when the alleged attempted incursions had taken place.

RELATED INTERNATIONAL NEWS

Europe leaders, in Kyiv, turn up pressure on Russia over ceasefire.

Ukraine and European leaders agreed on Saturday to an unconditional 30-day ceasefire on May 12 with the backing of U.S. President Donald Trump, threatening President Vladimir Putin with new "massive" sanctions if he failed to comply, Reuters reports.

The announcement was made by the leaders of Britain, France, Germany, Poland and Ukraine after a meeting in Kyiv, after which they held a phone call with Trump. The U.S. leader, who wants a rapid peace, has not commented publicly on the course of action.

"So all of us here together with the U.S. are calling Putin out. If he is serious about peace, then he has a chance to show it," British Prime Minister Keir Starmer told reporters at a news conference.

"No more ifs and buts, no more conditions and delays."

Following through on the threat would be a dramatic sign of growing Western unity after months of unpredictable U.S. policy that has seen Trump tear up the approach of his predecessor since entering the White House in January.

After engaging directly with Russian officials, clashing publicly with Zelenskiy and briefly cutting vital military aid to Ukraine, the Trump administration has patched up ties with Kyiv and signed an arduously-negotiated mineral resources deal.

There has also been a palpable shift in tone from Trump, who has signalled growing frustration with what Washington views as Putin's foot-dragging over a ceasefire.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told reporters at the news conference after their talks that he and the visiting leaders "agreed on Monday, May 12 there must start an unconditional ceasefire".

He added that it should cover air, sea and land, and said that if Moscow refused, it would face new sanctions, including the strengthening of punitive measures targeting its energy and banking sectors.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov was quoted as saying on Friday that Russia supported the implementation of a 30-day ceasefire, but only with due consideration of "nuances".
In remarks to ABC that were aired on Saturday, Peskov suggested that Western military assistance for Ukraine would have to stop in order for a temporary ceasefire to happen. "Otherwise it will be an advantage for Ukraine," he said.

Western military aid has been vital for Ukraine since Russia's full-scale invasion in February 2022.

Putin hosted Chinese President Xi Jinping and other leaders at a Red Square military parade on Friday to mark the 80th anniversary of the Soviet Union's victory over Nazi Germany in World War Two, sending a defiant message that he is not isolated.

On the same day, European ministers voiced support for a special tribunal to prosecute the Russian president and his officials for crimes of aggression, showing support for Zelenskiy who on Thursday poured scorn on Putin for planning a "parade of bile and lies".

On the eve of the summit, the U.S. embassy in Kyiv warned of a "potentially significant" air attack in the coming days and told its citizens to be ready to seek shelter in the event of air raid sirens.

"There is a lot of work to do, a lot of topics to discuss. We must end this war with a just peace. We must force Moscow to agree to a ceasefire," said Andriy Yermak, Zelenskiy's chief of staff, posting photographs welcoming the leaders off the train.

The leaders are expected to give a news conference and to host a virtual meeting with other leaders to update them on progress being made for a future coalition of an air, land and maritime force that would help regenerate Ukraine's armed forces after any peace deal.

The visit falls on the final day of a May 8-10 ceasefire declared by Putin that Ukraine did not accept, denouncing it as a sham. Both sides have accused each other of violating it.

Reuters journalists at a field hospital near the front line in Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia region observed soldiers being brought in with combat injuries sustained since the Russian ceasefire began.

"There hasn’t been any ceasefire, shelling has continued just as before, drones are flying just like before, the same with explosives being dropped. Nothing has changed at all," said a wounded soldier who gave his name as Stanislav.

Zelenskyy said on Thursday he told Trump in a telephone call that a 30-day ceasefire would be a "real indicator" of progress towards peace with Russia.

US, Europeans finalising 30-day Ukraine-Russia ceasefire proposal, says diplomatic source.

The United States and its European allies are finalising a proposal for a 30-day ceasefire in Ukraine that if refused would see them jointly impose new sanctions on Russia, Reuters reported citing a French diplomatic source on Friday.

U.S. President Donald Trump called on Thursday for a 30-day unconditional ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, warning that Washington and its partners would impose further sanctions if the ceasefire was not respected.

Ukraine has expressed readiness to accept the U.S. proposal. Russia has unilaterally declared a three-day ceasefire running from May 8-10 to coincide with the 80th anniversary of the end of World War Two.

"We're not completely with a finalised project, but we hope that we're at a moment of convergence," said the diplomatic source, speaking on condition of anonymity.

"What could happen in the coming hours and days, there could be an announcement of a ceasefire either of 30 days or compartmentalized, which is still being discussed."

France, Britain and Germany in recent weeks have sought closer coordination with Washington. Two weeks ago they pushed back against some U.S. proposals on how to end Russia's war in Ukraine, making counterproposals on issues from territory to sanctions, according to the full texts of the proposals seen by Reuters.

"We are reaching a point where we will not wait for a formal response from Moscow to a joint proposal to declare this ceasefire," said the source.

The source said there were still discussions on whether to announce a unilateral ceasefire or to give a short response time to Russia, although if it refused then new American and EU sanctions would be imposed on Moscow.

The two sides are coordinating on the sanctions packages.

French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot, who was in Washington last week to meet U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, was in Ukraine on Friday.

A meeting of Ukraine's closest allies is due to take place on Saturday where the U.S.-European proposal will be discussed.

President Emmanuel Macron said earlier on Friday France would take part in the hybrid meeting.

The source said political and technical talks between Europe and the U.S. had stepped up since last week. Trump and Macron spoke on Thursday to discuss the ceasefire proposal.

"We felt in the discussions with the Americans a certain irritation towards the Russian posture, the lack of reactivity and seriousness in its responses to what was proposed before," the source said. "The decision is practically taken."

UK targets 101 ships in 'largest ever' sanctions against Russia's shadow fleet.

The United Kingdom on May 9 announced its "largest ever" sanctions package against Russia's so-called "shadow fleet," imposing restrictions on 100 oil tankers and an additional vessel said to be supporting the Russian government.

Moscow's shadow fleet consists of aging tankers used to circumvent sanctions, including those imposed by the U.K., EU, and U.S. These vessels often operate under obscure ownership structures, use flags of convenience, and evade Western oversight.

London's latest round of sanctions name 100 shadow fleet tankers that have shipped over $24 billion in cargo since 2024, according to a press release. The penalties also target another ship "involved in obtaining a benefit from or supporting" the Kremlin, as well as several individuals and entities in the Russian energy and financial services sectors.

The sanctions are intended to disrupt Russia's ability to finance the full-scale war against Ukraine and protect undersea infrastructure from the risks posed by potentially unsafe vessels.

"The threat from Russia to our national security cannot be underestimated, that is why we will do everything in our power to destroy his shadow fleet operation, starve his war machine of oil revenues, and protect the subsea infrastructure that we rely on for our everyday lives," U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer said.

The latest sanctions package means that the U.K. has imposed penalties on more shadow fleet vessels than any other country.

Starmer announced the sanctions at a meeting of the Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF), a U.K.-led coalition of 10 northern European NATO countries which met today in Oslo. The JEF in January set up a tracking system to alert allies if a ship poses a threat to undersea cable infrastructure and to monitor Russia's shadow fleet.

The system was developed after several telecommunication and energy cables underneath the Baltic Sea were damaged over the previous months.

The JEF coalition wants to establish "an enhanced partnership with Ukraine," providing training and disinformation support to Kyiv while learning from the battlefield experience of Ukrainian troops, according to London.

Zelenskyy rejects demilitarised zone proposal for Russo-Ukrainian war peace plan.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has declared the idea of a 30 kilometres demilitarised zone in the war with Russia "dead as of now", during a press conference in Kyiv with the leaders of France, the UK, Poland and Germany, Ukrainska Pravda reports.

Zelenskyy stressed that the ceasefire comes first, with everything else to follow.

"As for the question of the demilitarised zone, the disengagement of troops, I've heard about it in the media and not only in the media, from many different people, from many intelligence services. Officially, Ukraine has not proposed anything like this. But... like sappers, everyone is looking for some opportunities to conduct an experiment on us."

Zelenskyy said he believes that this idea is not very relevant now.

"The issue of the demilitarised zone in both directions is 15 kilometres – why 15 kilometres? And from which line will we measure it – from the border, from the contact line... Even if we talk about 15 kilometres, what are we going to do with Kherson? This means that there will be no our troops in Kherson. If our troops aren't in Kherson, we won't have Kherson."

He recalled that after 2014, the contact line shifted and numerous ceasefires had been exploited by the Russians and separatists to advance and seize Ukrainian territories.

The Ukrainian leader also emphasised that there should be no illusions about the possibility of ceasefire violations. However, he added that the very truce is a crucial step.

"If we agree to a buffer zone and withdraw 15 kilometres from cities like Kherson, Kharkiv and Sumy, it may appear that peace has been achieved, but the war will continue in these cities as artillery will keep firing over them. That's why it is too early to discuss this, and the idea is dead as of now."

MILITARY & TECH