THE RUSSO-UKRAINE WAR BRIEF
For: 25-01-25
Slava Ukraini! In early 2022 I began a Telegram channel aggregating news from a number of sources daily on the war in Ukraine. In June 2023 I began providing a daily draft for the Ukraine War Brief Podcast collecting news from over 70 sources daily, which formed the basis of the script. While the Podcast no longer exists I have continued to make this Brief available for my followers here on Substack for those who wish to keep up with the news from the war.
All the latest news on the Russo-Ukraine War 6 days per week
ALONG THE CONTACT LINE
GSAFU Morning Report
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in its Operational Information update at 08:00 on Jan 25 stated that day 1067 of the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation against Ukraine had begun.
The situation on the line of combat remains tense in some sectors. Ukrainian defenders continue to actively counteract the Russian aggressor, causing them losses in personnel equipment and technology. Exhausting the enemy along the entire front line and continuing to disrupt the plans of Russian occupiers to advance deeper into the territory of Ukraine.
During the past day, 211 combat engagements took place.
Over the past 24 hours, the enemy carried out 2 missile strikes, 40 air strikes, used 1410 drones and fired approximately 4,000 artillery shells across the positions of Ukrainian forces and civilians.
Air Force Daily Report
TWO AIRCRAFT LAUNCHED CRUISE MISSILES AND 46 ENEMY UAVS WERE SHOT DOWN, 15 DRONES FAILED TO REACH THEIR TARGETS (LOCATIONALLY LOST)
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On the night of January 25, 2025 (from 19:00 on January 24), the enemy attacked with two Kh-59/69 guided aircraft missiles from the airspace of the Black Sea and the 61st Shahed attack UAV and simulator drones of various types from the directions: Orel, Kursk, Bryansk, Millerovo, Primorsko-Akhtarsk - Russia.
The air attack was repelled by anti-aircraft missile troops, electronic warfare units, and mobile fire groups of the Air Force and Defense Forces of Ukraine.
As of 09:30, the downing of two Kh-59/69 guided aircraft missiles and 46 Shahed attack UAVs and drones of other types was confirmed in the Odessa, Kharkiv, Poltava, Sumy, Kyiv, Cherkasy, Donetsk, Zaporizhia, Dnipropetrovsk, Khmelnytskyi and Kirovohrad regions.
15 enemy drone simulators were lost in location (without negative consequences).
Downed enemy UAVs caused damage in the Kyiv, Cherkasy, and Khmelnytskyi regions. Buildings of enterprises, institutions, apartment and private houses, and vehicles were damaged. Special services are eliminating the consequences, and assistance is being provided to the victims.
Combat Operations in the Russian Federation
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a US based think tank, in its Jan 24 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment reported that Russian forces recently advanced northwest and south of Sudzha amid continued offensive operations along the Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast. Geolocated footage published on Jan 23 shows that Russian forces reached the northern outskirts of Sverdlikovo (northwest of Sudzha) and advanced within southern Makhnovka (south of Sudzha). Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces also seized Maryevka (northwest of Sudzha) and advanced northwest of Sudzha near Malaya Loknya, Nikolskiy, and Viktorovka and south of Sudzha near Kurilovka. ISW has not observed confirmation of these claims, however. One milblogger claimed that Russian forces operating northwest of Sudzha are attempting to reach the Malaya Loknya-Loknya River line and seize Sverdlikovo and Lebedevka as part of a broader effort to obtain fire control over Ukrainian logistics lines. Another milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces continued counterattacking throughout the Kursk Oblast salient.
The Khortytsia operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the northeastern part of Ukraine. )
Siversk Sector: The Ukrainian Khortytsia Group of Forces reported on Jan 24 that Russian forces with armored vehicle support recently attacked near Ivano-Darivka, but did not advance.
The spokesperson of a Ukrainian brigade operating in the Siversk direction stated on Jan 23 that Russian forces recently conducted a motorized assault in an unspecified area of the Siversk direction comprised of at least 40 motorcycles and civilian vehicles.
Chasiv Yar Sector: Russian forces recently advanced in the Chasiv Yar direction amid continued offensive operations in the area on Jan 24. Geolocated footage published on Jan 24 indicated that Russian forces recently advanced south of Chasiv Yar.
Toretsk Sector: Russian and Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the Toretsk direction amid continued Russian offensive operations in the area on Jan 24. Geolocated footage published on January 21 indicates that Ukrainian forces recently recaptured lost positions in western Shcherbynivka (west of Toretsk). Geolocated footage published on Jan 8 and 17 indicates that Russian forces recently advanced in southern Toretsk
The Tavria operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the central-eastern and southeastern part of Ukraine.)
Pokrovsk Sector : Russian forces recently advanced in the Pokrovsk direction amid continued fighting in the area on January 24. Geolocated footage published on January 23 indicates that Russian forces recently seized Kotlyne (west of Pokrovsk).
Russian forces conducted offensive operations near Pokrovsk itself; northeast of Pokrovsk near Vodyane Druhe; east of Pokrovsk near Baranivka, Promin, Vozdvyzhenka, Yelyzavetivka, and Myrolyubivka; southeast of Pokrovsk near Lysivka; south of Pokrovsk near Zelene and Novoukrainka; southwest of Pokrovsk near Zvirove, Udachne, Uspenivka, Sribne, and Novoyelyzavetivka; and west of Pokrovsk near Kotlyne on January 23 and 24, but did not make any confirmed advances.
A Russian source claimed that Ukrainian forces counterattacked near Udachne and Kotlyne.
Kurakhove Sector: Russian forces recently advanced in the Kurakhove direction amid continued fighting in the area on January 24. Geolocated footage published on January 24 indicates that Russian forces recently advanced southeast of Rozlyv (southwest of Kurakhove).
Velyka Novosilka Sector: Russian forces recently advanced within Velyka Novosilka amid continued fighting in the area on January 24. Geolocated footage published January 24 shows that Russian forces, reportedly of the 5th Tank Brigade (36th CAA, Eastern Military District [EMD]), recently advanced in eastern and central Velyka Novosilka along Fontanna and Yuriia Haharina streets.
The Odesa operational-strategic group
(Responsible for Kherson, Qırım, (also known as Crimea) and the Black Sea.)
There have been no major changes to the combat environment since our last report.
TEMPORARILY OCCUPIED TERRITORIES
Nothing major to report.
THE HOME FRONT
Zelenskyy met with Moldovan President Sandu.
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy had a meeting with President of Moldova Maia Sandu, who arrived in Kyiv on 25 January.
"I am pleased to welcome Maia Sanda, a true friend of Ukraine, to Kyiv today. We had a substantive conversation about the situation in our region," Zelenskyy stated on his Telegram channel.
Zelenskyy stressed the need to join forces for security in the region.
"The situation in our neighbours is serious and unstable, and only together can we improve this situation. In particular, in the energy sector and in many social issues that are being used by our common enemy against the interests not only of Moldova but of our entire region. The absence of crises in Moldova is, among other things, our security. We must work together, support each other and find common solutions that can help people," the President added.
RUSSIAN WORLD
Russia continues to force wounded soldiers to continue assaulting Ukrainian positions.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a US based think tank, in its Jan 24 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment reported that Russian milbloggers continue to complain about frontline Russian commanders sending wounded servicemembers on infantry assaults instead of providing the wounded servicemembers with adequate medical care. A Russian milblogger and former Storm-Z instructor defended some Russian sources for circulating footage of wounded servicemembers of the 20th Combined Arms Army (CAA) (Moscow Military District [MMD]) attacking Ukrainian positions near the Serebryanske forested area in the Lyman direction following criticism from other milbloggers claiming that circulating the footage violates operational security procedures.
The milblogger amplified additional footage claiming to show wounded servicemembers of the 1st "Slovyansk" Motorized Rifle Brigade (51st CAA, formerly 1st Donetsk People's Republic Army Corps [DNR AC]) and the 109th Rifle Regiment (132nd Motorized Rifle Brigade, 51st CAA) attacking in an unspecified frontline area, likely near Toretsk where ISW has recently observed reports of these units operating. The milblogger noted that this is a widespread issue and criticized another Russian milblogger for refuting reports about the issue.
Major Russian Microchip Factory Halts Production After Ukrainian Drone Strikes
The Kremniy El microchip plant in Russia’s western Bryansk region halted production following one of the largest overnight Ukrainian drone strikes on the country since the start of the war, local authorities and media reported Friday. The Moscow Times reported on Jan 24.
“Six drones [struck Kremniy El] on the night of Jan. 24, damaging part of the production facilities and the finished products warehouse,” the plant’s press service told the state-run news agency TASS.
Kremniy El said the attack disrupted the plant’s power supply and assembly lines, though no casualties were reported.
Russia’s Defense Ministry said its air defense systems destroyed or intercepted 121 Ukrainian drones overnight, including 37 in the Bryansk region, which lies roughly 100 kilometers (62 miles) north of the Russia-Ukraine border.
Kremniy El, one of Russia’s largest microelectronics manufacturers, employs 1,700 people and has an annual production volume of 3.9 billion rubles ($39.7 million).
The plant supplies 94% of its production to the Russian Defense Ministry, including components for the Pantsir and S-500 missile systems, as well as Kalibr cruise missiles, according to local media reports.
This is not the first time the facility has been targeted by Ukrainian drones, with at least two strikes reported since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
INTERNATIONAL NEWS
Zelenskyy - US military aid to Ukraine has not been stopped.
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has commented on the US suspension of foreign aid, emphasizing that military assistance to Ukraine has not been suspended, Censor.NET reported citing Zelenskyy at a press conference with Moldovan President Maia Sandu on Jan 25.
The president emphasized that military assistance to Ukraine would not be stopped.
"Restriction of humanitarian programs for 90 days. I know there are a lot of institutions in the world that were previously supported by the US government... I can only say what Ukraine may not receive, what I am doing. I am focused on military aid, it is not stopped," Zelenskyy said.
On the first day after his inauguration, US President Donald Trump signed a decree suspending all US foreign aid programs for 90 days until their compliance with his policy goals is analyzed.
In turn, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio endorsed the suspension of all U.S. foreign aid.
US considers buying weapons for Ukraine using frozen Russian assets, Kellogg says.
The U.S. government is considering purchasing American weapons for Ukraine with money received from frozen Russian assets, Keith Kellogg, U.S. President Donald Trump's peace envoy for Ukraine and Russia, the Kyiv Independent reported citing Kellogg’s interview on Fox News on Jan. 24.
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on Jan. 6 in an interview with Lex Fridman that he had proposed to Trump that Kyiv buy U.S. weapons with frozen Russian assets. He added that this could be "one of the security guarantees." Zelensky did not specify what Trump's reaction was.
This approach can be part of a comprehensive solution that will support Ukraine in its war against Russia and strengthen the U.S. defense industry, Kellogg said.
The idea of directing Russian assets to the needs of Ukrainian defense remains "on the table," Kellogg added.
"We've talked about this repeatedly — using Russian frozen assets to do that, to buy U.S. arms," he said.
"That is one piece of the puzzle that needs to be discussed, and it's going to be on the table with the president to talk about. But it's not the piece that is going to solve it. Still, it's an interesting point and worth discussing."
While Western countries have frozen $300 billion in Russian assets, they can only access the annual income generated by these funds, approximately $3.2 billion. These profits will back a $50 billion loan to Kyiv, while the vast majority of the assets are frozen in European countries.
The European Union recently disbursed €3 billion ($3.09 billion) to Ukraine as part of G7's $50 billion loan initiative. The EU's €20 billion ($20.6 billion) contribution to the program is partially funded by income from frozen Russian assets.
The U.S. has also contributed $20 billion toward the loan assistance, showcasing a concerted Western effort to support Ukraine financially while leveraging Russian assets.
Ukraine president backs Slovak protests against PM Fico
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has expressed support for the mass protests occurring in Slovakia against the policies of Prime Minister Robert Fico in a post on Twitter on Jan. 24.
"Bratislava is not Moscow, Slovakia is Europe," Zelenskyy in his post in Slovak.
Protests against Fico's government began on Jan. 24 in various Slovak cities, organized by the initiative "Peace for Ukraine" and opposition political parties. Demonstrations have also been reported among Slovak communities in Poland, Germany, the Czech Republic, and Ireland.
On Jan. 21, Fico accused opposition parties of planning to incite unrest and seize government buildings, claiming they aim to provoke a "Maidan."
In response, Slovak opposition parties withdrew a parliamentary no-confidence vote against Fico's cabinet, protesting his proposal to hold the session in secret, citing the need to share confidential information.
On Jan. 23, the Slovak premier announced the government's intention to implement preventive measures against the protests, which he claimed could escalate into attempts to overthrow the government.
Meanwhile, the organizing civic groups and the opposition have strongly rejected Fico's accusations. The main opposition party, Progressive Slovakia, dismissed his statements as "nonsense."
Nine European industrial companies continue to operate in Russia. At least two of them work with military factories
Despite numerous sanctions imposed against Russia, many European manufacturers continue to work with Russian customers. The Insider reports its investigation has discovered nine illustrative cases in which European companies supplied industrial equipment to Russia, which was then used at defense industry enterprises. The total turnover of Russian firms studied in the investigation in 2023 exceeded 6.387 billion rubles.
Swedish GCE Group reportedly supplies gas equipment for military production in Russia through its subsidiary GCE Krass. Between February 2022 and April 2024, it imported 655 items worth $5.82 million, including pressure reducing valves and dual-purpose parts for welding and brazing machines.
Czech company TOS Varnsdorf controls the machine tool plant GRS Ural, which uses Czech components and buys machine tools from the same place. Between February 2022 and September 2024, the company imported over $12 million worth of products to Russia.
Czech firm Kovosvit continues to supply Russian military factories, importing 56 batches of machine tools worth $3.2 million since the war began. Some products were imported via its Russian subsidiary, Labara-Rus.
Swiss firm Meg Metal SA imported $14 million worth of steel products in 2022-2023 through its subsidiary Eurosteel. Among the largest buyers are Uralmashzavod and Prometey, which are working on the production of equipment for metallurgy, mining, and submarines.
Poland's Seco/Warwick supplies industrial furnaces for heat treatment in the aviation, machine-building and tool industries.
Czech trade and industrial group Alta operates in Russia through its 100% owned subsidiary A-R. Alta specializes in machine tools and equipment for mining and processing of minerals.
Joint venture Tachtech, founded by the Czech Tachtech, according to the investigation, also does business with Russian metallurgical plants that supply metal to military enterprises. Among its clients is the Omsk Plant of Transport Engineering, which produces TZM-T vehicles for the Solntsepyok and maintains T-80 tanks.
Czech companies Labara and PTV develop and manufacture electrical components for various industrial sectors. In Russia, the company works through LLC Labara-Rus
The listed cases of — are far from the only examples of the operation of Western industrial enterprises in Russia. Earlier, The Insider spoke as a subsidiary of the German company Gühring KG continues to import high-precision drills and metal incisors to Russia through Turkey. South Korean company YG-1 delivers to Russia metal cutting equipment that is actively used by Russian defense plants, and also produces it at its own plant in the city of Upper Salda, Sverdlovsk Region. «Agency » wrote that the Ulyanovsk machine tool plant owned by the German DMG Mori, continued to produce machines after the outbreak of war. The Italian steel company Cividale continues own sharesin the Russian company BVK and supplying the plant with industrial equipment even after being sanctioned, IrpiMedia was found out.
All of the above cases combine at least two circumstances. Firstly, the high risks of circumvention of sanctions associated with both violations of the embargo on supplies to Russia and the fact that cooperation is conducted with enterprises of the defense complex. Secondly, there is no information in open sources about investigations of these alleged violations either at the level of individual countries or at the level of the European Union.
MILITARY & TECH
Russia Increased Share of Domestic Components in Kalibr Missiles
The Economist reported on Jan 24 that the Kyiv Scientific Research Institute of Forensic Expertise, were able to get acquainted with the analysis of Russian missile parts.
Among the components that were dismantled from a downed Kalibr missile, many well-known brands such as AMD, Sony, Bosch were found, which are used by the enemy for the functioning of cruise missiles.
Although the components use the names of well-known companies, some of them are made by Chinese manufacturers and are mistakenly labeled with American and European brands.
Nevertheless, since the beginning of 2022, there has been an increase in the use of Russian parts, including components in the form of chips produced in Russia.
“At the beginning of the war, the Kalibr, one of the most destructive Russian cruise missiles, used mostly Western electronic components. Today, most of what researchers call the Kalibr’s “brains” come from Russia,” the publication notes.
At the same time, the shortage of certain components is being made up for by China, which supplies Russia with the components needed for missile weapons through hundreds of front companies.
Despite the sanctions, the Russian government and interested businesses are finding ways to circumvent the sanctions through China, as well as through European and North American countries.
In order to export certain components to Russia, the Chinese side is also forging documents and creating fake names for existing Western and Asian companies.
For example, recently, Chinese companies supplying servos for planning modules for the UMPC and Shahed UAVs to Russia illegally used the name of the Taiwanese company TRC to avoid sanctions.
The investigation revealed that although the name of the Taiwanese company appears in the procurement documents, the real TRC company is not related to these spare parts. The real manufacturer of the servos was the Chinese company KST Digital Technology Limited.
The civic activist notes that experts have never seen such a complex scheme of double rebranding. However, it is already known that it was applied to other critical components for the Russian defense industry. In particular, using the TRC brand.
The UK Agrees £61 Million Deal to Supply Ukraine with 150 Artillery Barrels
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer visited Kyiv on January 16, 2025, where he pledged to provide 150 artillery barrels to the Armed Forces of Ukraine as part of military assistance. It was stated that the first of them should be delivered "in the next few weeks". Defense Express reports.
A report from the UK Ministry of Defense's procurement agency states that a £61 million ($76 million) contract has been awarded to BAE Systems and Sheffield Forgemasters to produce these barrels at facilities in Yorkshire.
Even if the announcement was made public on January 22, 2025, and the contract was signed much earlier, the UK still needs to produce these 150 artillery barrels first. That is, the Armed Forces of Ukraine will not receive such assistance soon.
In addition, it should be noted that the first mention of the UK's intentions to resume production of artillery barrels was made in the summer of 2024.
It turns out that six months were spent preparing to resume the production of barrels for British-style artillery, while the Armed Forces of Ukraine urgently need them at the frontline.
In addition, the question arises about how long it will take the British defense industry to produce 150 artillery barrels.
This is especially relevant given reports that the United States has reached its production limit of 30 barrels per month for 155-mm howitzers, which matches the needs of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
On the other hand, regardless of when the British defense industry will be able to produce 150 artillery barrels for the Ukrainian army, it will still be a significant contribution to Ukraine's support from the UK. This will increase the survivability of the AS-90 and L119 howitzers, which are actively used by the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
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