THE RUSSO-UKRAINE WAR BRIEF
For: 2024-10-18
Slava Ukraini! In early 2022 I began a Telegram channel aggregating news from a number of sources daily on the war in Ukraine. In June 2023 I began providing a daily draft for the Ukraine War Brief Podcast collecting news from over 70 sources daily, much of which formed the basis of the script. While the Podcast no longer exists I have continued to make this Brief available both on my own Substack and The People’s Media for those who wish to keep up with events on a daily basis.
All the latest news on the Russo-Ukraine War 6 days per week
ALONG THE CONTACT LINE
GSAFU Morning Report
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in its Operational Information update at 22:00 on Oct 17 stated that day 968 of the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation against Ukraine was about to begin.
During the past day, 191 combat engagements took place. Over the past 24 hours, the enemy carried out 47 air strikes, 650 drone strikes and more than 3,250 artillery strikes across the positions of Ukrainian forces.
At the same time, Ukrainian soldiers continue to inflict losses in manpower and equipment on the occupying troops, exhausting the enemy along the entire front line and continue to disrupt the plans of Russian occupiers to advance deep into the territory of Ukraine.
Russia suffers 2nd deadliest day since start of full-scale invasion
Russian forces on Oct. 17 suffered their second deadliest day since the start of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, according to figures released by Kyiv. The Kyiv Independent reports.
The General Staff of Ukraine's Armed Forces reported 1,530 Russian casualties over the past day, a figure only surpassed once in more than two-and-a-half years of fighting.
The bloodiest day for Moscow's forces was on May 13, when they suffered a reported 1,740 casualties.
The figures do not specify killed or wounded, though the overall consensus is that it includes dead, wounded, missing, and captured.
Facing a shortage of manpower and a pressing need to maintain the grinding advances in eastern Ukraine, Russia has reportedly been throwing some of its most skilled troops into mass infantry attacks, and at very high costs.
Russian casualty figures have surged in recent months.
According to an analysis of the Ukrainian figures by analyst Ragnar Gudmundsson, two of the top ten bloodiest days for Moscow's forces since the launch of the full-scale invasion occurred this month — 1,530 on Oct. 17, and 1,450 on Oct. 16.
Three others all occurred last month – Sept. 22, with 1,500 casualties, Sept. 28, with 1,470, and Sept. 21, with 1,440.
"The past four months have proved the costliest for Russian forces since the war began in 2022," according to a U.K. military intelligence report on Sept. 23.
Steven Wolff, Professor of International Security at the University of Birmingham, told the Kyiv Independent last month that Russia's huge losses are indicative of a Russian military mindset that has not changed in decades.
"Russian military doctrine is Soviet-style, and it always relied on the depth of Russia and its enormous resources, including manpower resources," he said.
"The way in which (Soviet leader Joseph) Stalin just threw millions of people at the Nazis in the 1940s, it's not very different to what (Russian President Vladimir) Putin does in this terrible war of aggression against Ukraine."
Air Force Daily Report
On the night of October 18, 2024 (from 20:00 on October 17), the enemy will attack Ukraine with attack UAVs of the "Shahed" type and drones of an unknown type (launch areas: Kursk, Orel, Primorsko-Akhtarsk - Russian Federation).
As of 08:30, radio engineering troops of the Air Force detected and escorted 135 enemy drones.
The air attack is repulsed by aviation, anti-aircraft missile forces, electronic warfare units and mobile fire groups of the Air Force and the Defense Forces of Ukraine.
As a result of anti-aircraft combat, 80 enemy UAVs were shot down in Odesa, Sumy, Cherkasy, Kyiv, Zhytomyr, Kirovohrad, Chernihiv, Poltava, Khmelnytskyi, Rivne, Kharkiv, Kherson, Volyn, and Vinnytsiaregions.
44 Russian drones were lost in location, 2 flew to Belarus, up to 10 enemy UAVs were shot down in the airspace of the central regions of Ukraine.
The Russian Border Incursion
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a US based think tank, in its Oct 17 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment stated that Russian forces advanced on the Western side of the Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast amid continued fighting along the salient on Oct 17. Geolocated footage published on Oct 17 indicates that Russian forces advanced south of Zelenyy Shlyakh (southeast of Korenevo).
Russian forces reportedly continued fighting southeast of Korenevo near Lyubimovka, Malaya Loknya, and Novoivanovka; and south of Sudzha near Plekhovo.
Ukrainian forces reportedly counterattacked southeast of Korenevo in the direction of Tolsty Lug, Lyubimovka, Zelenyy Shlyakh, and Nizhnyi Klin; and southeast of Sudzha near Russkaya Konopelka.
A Russian milblogger claimed that rainy weather is impacting Russian and Ukrainian operations in Kursk Oblast.
Elements of the Russian 106th Airborne (VDV) Division and the 155th Naval Infantry Brigade (Pacific Fleet, Eastern Military District [EMD]) are reportedly operating near Lyubimovka. Elements of the Russian 83rd Airborne Assault Brigade (VDV) are reportedly operating near Tolsty Lug.
The Khortytsia operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the northeastern part of Ukraine. )
Kharkiv Sector: Over the last day Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 6 Russian attacks near Starytsya. 1 more attack is ongoing.
Kupyansk Sector: Russian Forces carried out 16 offensive actions against Ukrainian defensive positions near Holubivka, Stepova Novoselivka, Lozova and Vyshneve and Nadyia [Southeast of Vyshneve] . 3 engagements continue.
Lyman Sector: Russian Forces carried out 21 offensive actions against Ukrainian defensive positions near Druzhelyubivka, Hrekivka, Novomykhailivka, Katernyivka Nevske, Novosadove, Torske and the Bryanskyy Forest. 1 engagement continues near Novosadove.
Siversk Sector: There has been no significant change in the combat environment in the last 24 hours.
Kramatorsk Sector: Russian forces carried out 8 offensive actions near. Minkivka, Hryhorivka, Chasiv Yar and Ivanivske 1 engagement continues near Chasiv Yar.
Toretsk Sector: Russian forces carried out 6 unsuccessful offensive actions with air support near Toretsk, Shcherbynivka and Nelipivka.
The Tavria operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the central-eastern and southeastern part of Ukraine.)
Pokrovsk Sector : Russian forces conducted 45 attacks against Ukrainian defences in the vicinity of Sukha Balka, Novotorestske, Promin, Sukhyi Yar, Lysivka, Mykhailivka and Selydove. 10 engagements are ongoing.
Kurakhove Sector: Russian forces conducted 45 attacks against Ukrainian defences in the vicinity of Novodmytrivka, Izmailivka, Hirnyk, Zoryane, Kurakhivka, Hostre, Heorhiivka, Konstantinivka, Antonivka and Vodyane. 9 engagements continue. The situation is complicated.
Vremivka Sector: Russian forces made 10 assaults against Ukrainian positions near Levadne and Vuhledar. The situation is under control.
Orikhiv Sector: Russian forces made 1 unsuccessful attempt to advance against Ukrainian positions near Novoandriivka.
The Odesa operational-strategic group
(Responsible for Kherson, Qırım, (also known as Crimea) and the Black Sea.)
Prydniprovsk Sector: In this sector, over the last day, Russian forces made 6 unsuccessful attempts to force Ukrainian units from their positions on the left bank of the Dnipro.
TEMPORARILY OCCUPIED TERRITORIES
Nothing major to report.
THE HOME FRONT
Russians attack an ambulance in Kherson
Russian troops attacked an ambulance in Stanislav, Kherson region. NikVesti reported citing the regional military administration on October 18.
The explosive was dropped from an unmanned aerial vehicle and targeted an ambulance. “The vehicle was damaged due to the dropping of explosives from the UAV. Fortunately, the medical workers were not injured” the report said.
Russian troops wounded three civilians of the Kherson region on October 17. During the past day. Russian troops shelled Kizomys, Sadove, Prydniprovske, Bilozerka, Oleksandrivka, Shyroka Balka, Stanislav, Beryslav, Odradokamianka, Novovorontsovka, Novoraisk and the city of Kherson.
RUSSIAN WORLD
Russian officer assassinated.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a US based think tank, in its Oct 17 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment stated that Russian sources reported on Oct 16 that unspecified actors killed the deputy commander of Russia's Special Operations Forces (SSO) Training Center, Nikita Klenkov, near Moscow City.
Klenkov reportedly fought in the war in Ukraine as part of military unit 43292 and was a high-ranking officer of the Russian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GRU). Russian authorities claimed that Klenkov's murder was a planned contract killing and opened a criminal investigation into the murder but have yet to accuse Ukraine or other Western actors of being involved in the murder. ISW cannot independently verify these claims.
Kyiv denied any involvement in that attack.
INTERNATIONAL NEWS
Almost 11,000 North Korean troops are in Russia.
Close to 11,000 North Korean troops are in Russia and will be "ready to fight" in Ukraine by Nov. 1, military intelligence head Kyrylo Budanov said in comments published by the War Zone on Oct. 17.
Budanov said the first group of 2,600 soldiers will be deployed to Russia's Kursk Oblast, where Ukraine began a cross-border incursion in August and still holds significant swathes of territory. The troops will be using Russian equipment and ammunition, but further information is currently unknown.
"We don't have the full picture right now," Budanov said.
Concerns about North Korea's direct involvement in Russia's full-scale war have reached a fever pitch in recent days.
Speaking at a press conference in Brussels on Oct. 17, President Volodymyr Zelensky said that Russia is planning to train and engage not only infantry but also North Korean specialists in various branches of the military.
"We know about 10,000 soldiers from North Korea they are preparing to send to fight against us," he added.
Budanov’s comments came hours after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told reporters in Brussels that there are about 10,000 North Korean troops preparing to fight his country on behalf of Russia.
Zelensky warned that a third nation wading into the hostilities would turn the conflict into a “world war,” The Associated Press reported. The Ukrainian leader did not go into further details.
The Pentagon is looking into reports about North Korean troops fighting on behalf of Russia, but could not confirm them, Air Force Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder told The War Zone during a press conference Thursday afternoon.
“If true, that would demonstrate an increase in the cooperation between Russia and North Korea, and I think that would also demonstrate the dire situation [Russia] finds itself in, in terms of its forces on the battlefield,” said Ryder. “As you heard us recently say, the casualties that Russia is experiencing on the front lines are extremely significant, upward of 600,000 killed or wounded, and so it just demonstrates the desperation in terms of identifying additional forces for their military. It’s something that will continue to keep a close eye on.”
North Korean troops sent to Russia’s war in Ukraine are a ‘grave security threat’ - South Korea
North Korean troops being sent to Russia to assist its war in Ukraine is a "grave security threat" to the international community, The Kyiv Independent reported citing a statement by South Korea's presidential office on Oct. 18.
South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol convened an emergency meeting with key officials a day after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Pyongyang is preparing 10,000 soldiers of different branches and specializations to join Moscow's full-scale invasion.
"The participants ... shared the view that the current situation where Russia and North Korea's closer ties have gone beyond the movement of military supplies to actual dispatch of troops is a grave security threat not only to our country but to the international community," South Korea's presidential office said in a statement after the meeting.
"They also decided not to stand by and will respond by mobilizing all available means in cooperation with the international community," it added.
Up until now, Seoul has only provided humanitarian aid to Kyiv, though it has been reported the country has indirectly supplied artillery shells via the U.S.
In June, South Korea said it would reconsider its policy of not directly supplying Ukraine with weapons after Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korea dictator Kim Jong-Un signed a security agreement in Pyongyang.
After the meeting on Oct. 18, South Korea's National Intelligence Service (NIS) said it believes North Korea will deploy four brigades totalling 12,000 soldiers to the war in Ukraine, including 1,500 special forces.
It would mark the first time North Korean forces had been deployed to a foreign war.
It also revealed it had been working with Ukraine's intelligence services and had used facial recognition technology to identify North Korean officers operating in Ukraine's Donetsk Oblast, where it said they were helping Russian forces to launch North Korean missiles.
"The direct military cooperation between Russia and North Korea that has been reported by foreign media has now been officially confirmed," NIS said in a statement.
Biden says West 'cannot let up' support for Ukraine
U.S. President Joe Biden urged a continuation of Western support for Ukraine in Berlin on Oct. 18. The president had arrived earlier in the day for high-level talks with the leaders of Germany, the U.K., and France on Russia's full-scale war on Ukraine and the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.
"We cannot let up. We must sustain our support. In my view, we must keep going until Ukraine wins a just and durable peace consistent with the U.N. Charter," Biden said. The West must "ensure that Ukraine prevails and (Russian President Vladimir) Putin fails and NATO remains strong and more united than ever."
Biden will first hold bilateral talks with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and President Frank-Walter Steinmeier before a wider meeting with other leaders.
"The situation on the battlefield in Ukraine, the trajectory of the war, how allies can best support Ukraine will be a subject of conversation," a senior U.S. official said ahead of Biden's trip.
There has been intense speculation — as well as concern — about how next month's presidential election could impact U.S. support for Ukraine.
Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump has said he would "get out" of the war, while Democratic nominee and current Vice President Kamala Harris has pledged to maintain U.S. assistance.
Ukraine and its Western allies have acknowledged the crucial role that the U.S. has played in supporting Kyiv as its largest provider of aid since the beginning of the full-scale war.
Discussions on Ukraine's victory plan, which President Volodymyr Zelensky shared behind closed doors with allies in recent weeks and made public on Oct. 16, are also expected.
Trump blames Ukraine's Zelenskyy for starting war with Russia
Donald Trump on Thursday blamed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy for helping start that nation's war with Russia, a comment that further suggests Trump is likely to radically shift U.S. policy toward Russia if he wins the Nov. 5 election. Reuters reports.
The Republican former president has frequently criticised Zelenskyy on the campaign trail, repeatedly calling him "the greatest salesman on Earth" for having solicited and received billions of dollars of U.S. military aid since the war broke out in 2022.
Trump has also slammed the Ukrainian leader for failing to seek peace with Moscow, and he has suggested Ukraine may have to cede some of its land to Russia to make a peace deal, a concession Kyiv considers unacceptable.
Trump's comments on the PBD Podcast on Thursday with Patrick Bet-David went a step further than his previous criticism. He said Zelenskyy was to blame not just for failing to end the war, but for helping start it, even though the conflict broke out when Russia invaded Ukrainian sovereign territory.
"That doesn't mean I don't want to help him because I feel very badly for those people. But he should never have let that war start. The war's a loser," Trump said.
Trump's public comments, however, suggest he could seek to wind down aid for Ukraine if he defeats Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee, on Nov. 5. He has repeatedly said he could end the conflict before he takes office in January, but he has not said how.
MILITARY & TECH
Norway Strengthens Support for Ukraine with More F-16 Fighter Jets, Greece Offers New Assistance
On Thursday, October 17, Ukraine and Greece signed an agreement on security cooperation. The agreement was signed by the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyi and the Prime Minister of Greece Kyriakos Mitsotakis. Greece is the 27th country with which Ukraine has signed such an agreement. Defense Express reports.
As a result of the agreement, it was decided that Greece would support Ukraine's membership in NATO and the European Union and help Ukrainians rebuild damaged or destroyed facilities. This agreement with Athens on the intention to become a member of the Alliance is a very important aspect, given Zelenskyi's "victory plan," where the first point is Ukraine's membership in NATO.
It is important to emphasise that Greece is also committed to facilitating the training of Ukrainian pilots for F-16 aircraft. However, it should be recalled that Greece will not transfer F-16s to Ukraine until 2028. The country is actively writing off old fighter jets, but is not ready to provide them as aid yet.
At the same time, on October 17, talks were held between Norway's Defense Minister Bjørn Arild Gram, and Ukraine's Defense Minister Rustem Umerov on more active assistance in strengthening Ukraine's air defence.
As a result, it was agreed that Norway would supply F-16 aircraft in a short time. We are talking about six F-16s, which were officially announced in July 2024. Norway is the smallest donor of all the members of the F-16 coalition. This is due to the fact that the Norwegian aircraft were decommissioned two years ago. In November 2022, Romania purchased 32 of the most capable aircraft for $388 million.
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