THE RUSSO-UKRAINE WAR BRIEF
For: 2024-11-08
Slava Ukraini! In early 2022 I began a Telegram channel aggregating news from a number of sources daily on the war in Ukraine. In June 2023 I began providing a daily draft for the Ukraine War Brief Podcast collecting news from over 70 sources daily, much of which formed the basis of the script. While the Podcast no longer exists I have continued to make this Brief available both on my own Substack and The People’s Media for those who wish to keep up with events on a daily basis.
All the latest news on the Russo-Ukraine War 6 days per week
ALONG THE CONTACT LINE
GSAFU Morning Report
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in its Operational Information update at 22:00 on Nov 7 stated that day 979 of the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation against Ukraine was about to begin.
During the past day, 140 combat engagements took place. Over the past 24 hours, the enemy carried out 55 air strikes, 687 drone strikes and more than 3,600 artillery strikes across the positions of Ukrainian forces.
At the same time, Ukrainian soldiers continue to inflict losses in manpower and equipment on the occupying troops, exhausting the enemy along the entire front line and continue to disrupt the plans of Russian occupiers to advance deep into the territory of Ukraine.
Air Force Daily Report
On the night of November 8, 2024 (from 18:00 on November 7), the enemy struck with an Iskander-M ballistic missile from the Rostov region, four Kh-59/69 guided air missiles from the airspace of the Belgorod region, 92 attack UAVs of the "Shahed" type and drones of an unknown type from the directions of Kursk, Primorsko-Akhtarsk, Orel - Russian Federation, Chauda - Crimea. Enemy tactical aviation struck Kharkiv region and Sumy region with guided air bombs.
The air attack was repulsed by anti-aircraft missile troops, aviation, electronic warfare units, mobile fire groups of the Air Force and the Defense Forces of Ukraine.
As of 09:00, the shooting down of 4 Kh-59/69 guided air missiles and 62 enemy UAVs in Odesa, Mykolaiv, Kyiv, Sumy, Kharkiv, Poltava, Kirovohrad, Zhytomyr, Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Khmelnytskyi and Ivano-Frankivsk regions was confirmed.
26 enemy drones were lost in various regions of Ukraine. One is in the airspace of Ukraine. Combat work continues!
As a result of the night Russian attack, there were casualties and damage to the houses and property of civilians in Odesa, Kharkiv, Sumy and Khmelnytskyi regions.
The Russian Border Incursion
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a US based think tank, in its Nov 7 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment reported that fighting continued in the main Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast southeast of Korenevo near Novoivanovka and Darino and south of Sudzha near Plekhovo on Nov 7, but there were no changes to the frontline. Russian milbloggers described the frontline in Kursk Oblast on Nov 7 as largely inactive.
A Ukrainian brigade commander reportedly operating in the area stated that Russian forces field many fewer armored vehicles and have less artillery in Kursk Oblast than elsewhere on the frontline, especially in Donetsk Oblast.
A milblogger posted footage of Russian forces striking a Ukrainian position near Cherkasskoye Porechnoye (north of Sudzha) with an alleged FAB-3000 glide bomb.
The Khortytsia operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the northeastern part of Ukraine. )
Kharkiv Sector: Over the last day Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 3 Russian attacks in the area of Vovchansk.
Kupyansk Sector: Russian Forces carried out 12 offensive actions against Ukrainian defensive positions near Kindrashivka, Petropavlivka, Kolisynivka, Kruhlyakivka and Lozova.
Lyman Sector: Russian Forces carried out 17 offensive actions against Ukrainian defensive positions near Druzhelyubivka, Hrekivka, Makiivka, Katerynivka, Terny, Torske, Serebryanka, Hyrhorivka and Bilohorivka.
Siversk Sector: Russian forces carried out 1 unsuccessful offensive action near Zvanivka.
ISW - Russian commanders continue to squander resources in pointless frontal assaults.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a US based think tank, in its Nov 7 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment reported that a recent failed Russian assault northeast of Siversk near Bilohorivka prompted outrage from some Russian ultranationalist milbloggers over Russian command failures and the pervasive Russian military culture of exaggerating battlefield successes.
Russian milbloggers claimed that the commander of the 123rd Motorized Rifle Brigade (3rd Combined Arms Army, formerly 2nd Luhansk People's Republic Army Corps) ordered the brigade's 1st, 2nd, and 3rd motorised rifle battalions and 4th Tank Battalion to conduct a simultaneous frontal assault against Ukrainian positions near Bilohorivka without adequate fire support on Nov 2.
The milbloggers complained that the assault was unsuccessful and resulted in steep personnel, tank, and infantry fighting vehicle (IFV) losses. The milbloggers reiterated their long-standing critiques that Russian military field commanders produce "beautiful reports" and maps that deliberately inflate Russian frontline advances and send these false reports to senior Russian military leadership. Russian milbloggers claimed that field commanders send these false reports to secure promotions at the cost of Russian servicemen's lives and military equipment losses.
The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) had claimed in late Oct 2024 that Russian forces had seized Serebryanka (just west of Bilohorivka), and Russian milbloggers may have been referring to this claim in their critiques. Bilohorivka is a particular sore spot for the Russian ultranationalist community because Russian forces have impaled themselves on assaults to take the settlement since at least May 2022. The Russian military command most notably launched a catastrophic river crossing to take Bilohorivka in May 2022 that failed, resulting in significant Russian armoured vehicle losses.
Kramatorsk Sector: Russian forces carried out 6 unsuccessful offensive actions against Ukrainian defences in the vicinity of Stupochky and Bila Hora.
Toretsk Sector: Russian forces carried out 4 offensive actions with air support near Toretsk. 1 engagement continues.
The Tavria operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the central-eastern and southeastern part of Ukraine.)
Pokrovsk Sector : Russian forces carried out 23 offensive actions in the vicinity of Myrolyubivka, Promin, Krutyi Yar, Sukhyi Yar, Lysivka, Hryhorivka and Selydove.
Kurakhove Sector: The main thrust of Russian forces over the last day was in this district 50 offensive actions took place in the vicinity of Novodmytrivka, Kreminna Balka, Novoselydivka, Sontsivka, Illinka, Maksymilyanivka, Dalnje, Katerynivka and Antonivka.
Vremivka Sector: Russian forces made 5 attempts to break through Ukrainian defences in the vicinity of Rozlyv, Sukhi Yaly and Trudove.
Orikhiv Sector: In this sector, over the last day, there has been no significant change in the combat environment. The enemy conducted a number of air strikes.
The Odesa operational-strategic group
(Responsible for Kherson, Qırım, (also known as Crimea) and the Black Sea.)
Prydniprovsk Sector: In this sector, over the last day, there has been no significant change in the combat environment. Russian forces made 3 unsuccessful attempts to dislodge Ukrainian units from their positions on the left bank of the Dnipro.
TEMPORARILY OCCUPIED TERRITORIES
Nothing major to report.
THE HOME FRONT
Fake TCC and law enforcement officers arrested for demanding money.
The Prosecutor's Office stated that a criminal group had been detained, which under the guise of law enforcement officers and employees of the Territorial Recruitment Centre demanded money from the residents of the region.
According to the investigation, the criminals tracked down men of conscription age, represented themselves as police and TCC staff, and under the pretext of checking documents required the display of military certificates.
If a person refused, they demanded money to "solve the issue," the prosecutor's office added.
The agency noted that in one case the suspects received from the victim UAH 38,000, in another – UAH 39,000.
During the investigation, police seized military clothing, money, weapons and other evidence – one of the arrested was a former law enforcement officer who was wanted on separate charges.
Four detainees were informed of suspicions of extortion. They face a maximum of 12 years in prison with confiscation of property.
RUSSIAN WORLD
UK Intell - Russia will continue high rate of drone use to attack Ukraine
The UK Ministry of Defence in their Nov 8 Intelligence Update on Ukraine stated that approximately 2000 One Way Attack Uncrewed Aerial Vehicles (OWA UAVs) were launched by Russia against Ukraine over the month of October 2024, exceeding September’s numbers by approximately 700, and increasing significantly for the third month in a row.
With continuing Russian investment in a range of OWA UAVs, diversification of supply, and expansion of launch-sites, firing rates have been trending consistently upwards since mid-2024.
Through the first week of November Russian firing rates remained high and in-line with recent weeks.
With launch sites being reasonably simple and easy to re-establish if targeted, should production remain uninhibited, the primary limiting factor for Russian OWA UAV operations is likely human resource relative to launch capacity. It is likely that the high figures seen through September and October to date will become normal.
INTERNATIONAL NEWS
Putin is ready to talk to Trump but his Ukraine demands are unchanged, Kremlin says
President Vladimir Putin is ready to discuss Ukraine with Donald Trump but that does not mean he is willing to alter Moscow's demands, Reuters reported citing the Kremlin.
Putin's spokesman Dmitry Peskov made the remarks after being asked at his daily news briefing if Putin's readiness to talk to the Republican president-elect reflected a willingness to change those demands.
"The president has never said that the goals of the special military operation are changing. On the contrary, he has repeatedly said that they remain the same," Peskov said.
"All this concerns the security interests of our country, the security interests of the Russian people living there. Therefore, there was no talk of any changes here."
Putin on June 14 set out his terms for an end to the war: Ukraine would have to drop its NATO ambitions and withdraw all of its troops from all of the territory of four regions claimed by Russia.
Ukraine rejected that, saying it would be tantamount to capitulation, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has put forward a "victory plan" that includes requests for additional military support from the West.
On the campaign trail, Trump criticised the scale of U.S. military and financial support for Kyiv and said he could end the war within 24 hours, without saying how.
Scholz caused German government crisis by denying Ukraine Taurus missiles, fired minister says
FDP leader Christian Lindner called for an immediate new election, saying Chancellor Scholz’s obstruction of effective military aid for Ukraine led to the collapse of their governing coalition. Berliner Zeitung reports.
Lindner accused Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) of preventing effective military support for Ukraine the day after the traffic lights were broken. Lindner said on Thursday in Berlin that the FDP had never hesitated for aid to Ukraine.
Scholz, made a request to transfer three billion euros to Ukraine. Lindner, pointed out the difficult financial situation and instead proposed to give Ukraine what it needed most to defend itself effectively against Russia – namely Taurus cruise missile. Chancellor Olaf Scholz categorically rejected this and instead informed him of his dismissal.
The FDP and the CDU agree on the issue of Taurus delivery, CDU boss Friedrich Merz recently asked Russia to provide a 24-hour ultimatum: If the attacks on civilian targets or infrastructure goals are not stopped during this time, Germany should equip Ukraine with the cruise missiles. This can be used to fight goals on Russian territory.
Lindner asked Scholz to immediately create political clarity. “Our country needs a government that not only serves, but can act. The right thing for our country would be the immediate question of trust and new elections. Nobody should be afraid of voters in democracy “, Lindner said.
EU Is Looking at Ramping Up Ukraine Aid If Trump Pulls the Plug
European Union leaders are trying to work out whether they can keep the Ukrainian war effort going if Donald Trump decides to shut off support from the US. Bloomberg reports.
Officials held discussions on whether the bloc will be ready to foot the bill for the war during their meeting in Budapest Thursday, according to people familiar with the discussion. The big concern is that Trump will seek to shift the financial burden on Europe, although nothing in the initial conversations suggests a massive change of tack, said one of the people, who asked not to be named discussing private conversations.
Trump promised during the election campaign that he will quickly end the fighting in Ukraine, but has been ambivalent in his support for Kyiv. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy on Thursday urged European leaders to focus on maintaining the supply of weapons and not undermine his position with talk of a cease-fire or concessions to Vladimir Putin.
“If we talk about the possibility of peace today, it’s because the Ukrainians had extraordinary courage and because the West supported Ukraine,” Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni told reporters as she arrived for a second day of talks Friday. “That said, we’ll see how the scenario evolves in the coming weeks.”
The EU has been the biggest provider of aid to Ukraine, allocating €118 billion ($127 billion) since the start of the conflict, according to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy. The US has provided €85 billion in total, although the flow of money has tailed off this year, with just €17 billion allocated. The EU has supplied almost double that amount.
Some European officials said the real issue was not so much the money itself, which should still be there, but the available military resources that have come primarily from the US, one of the people said.
MILITARY & TECH
The Russian army has begun using North Korean machine guns
Russian forces have reportedly begun using North Korean Type 73 machine guns, according to multiple photos circulating on Russian social media. Defence Blog reports.
The images depict Russian soldiers equipped with North Korean-made weapons.
The Type 73 machine gun, adopted by the North Korean military in 1973, merges design features from the Soviet PK machine gun and the Czechoslovak Vz. 52. This unique combination of elements also gives it a visual resemblance to the well-known British Bren gun.
The weapon has seen action in numerous conflicts in the Middle East and remains part of the arsenal for North Korean armed forces.
The emergence of the Type 73 among Russian troops raises questions about potential arms deals or exchanges between Russia and North Korea. This development could indicate efforts by Russia to diversify its arms supplies amid international sanctions that limit its access to certain military resources.
The deployment of North Korean weapons may also reflect logistical constraints faced by Russian forces, leading them to procure alternative military supplies. Experts suggest that the Type 73, while somewhat dated, still holds operational value in certain scenarios, particularly due to its adaptability and robust design.
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