THE RUSSO-UKRAINE WAR BRIEF

For: 2024-10-21

Oct 21, 2024

Slava Ukraini! In early 2022 I began a Telegram channel aggregating news from a number of sources daily on the war in Ukraine. In June 2023 I began providing a daily draft for the Ukraine War Brief Podcast collecting news from over 70 sources daily, much of which formed the basis of the script. While the Podcast no longer exists I have continued to make this Brief available both on my own Substack and The People’s Media for those who wish to keep up with events on a daily basis.

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ALONG THE CONTACT LINE

GSAFU Morning Report

The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in its Operational Information update at 22:00 on Oct 20 stated that day 971 of the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation against Ukraine was about to begin.

During the past two days, 138+167= 305 combat engagements took place. Over the past 48 hours, the enemy carried out 2+1= 3 missile strikes, 57+54= 111 air strikes, 607+560= 1,160 drone strikes and more than 3,000+3,000= 6,000 artillery strikes across the positions of Ukrainian forces.

At the same time, Ukrainian soldiers continue to inflict losses in manpower and equipment on the occupying troops, exhausting the enemy along the entire front line and continue to disrupt the plans of Russian occupiers to advance deep into the territory of Ukraine.

Air Force Daily Report

On the night of October 20, 2024 (from 21:00 on October 19), the enemy attacked Ukraine with ballistic missiles from the territory of Crimea, "Shahed" type UAVs and unspecified drones (launch areas: Yeisk, Primorsko-Akhtarsk - Russian Federation).

A total of 51 aerial targets were identified and escorted by the Air Force's radio engineering forces: 49 enemy drones and two Iskander-M ballistic missiles.

The air attack was repulsed by aviation, anti-aircraft missile forces, electronic warfare units and mobile fire groups of the Air Force and the Defense Forces of Ukraine.

As of 10:00 a.m., as a result of anti-aircraft combat, 31 enemy UAVs were shot down in Vinnytsia, Khmelnytskyi, Zhytomyr, Lviv, Odesa, Sumy, Poltava, Cherkasy, Kyiv, Mykolaiv, Dnipropetrovsk, and Donetsk regions.

13 Russian drones have been lost to location, the information regarding the crash/fall is being clarified and updated.

Two enemy UAVs flew in the direction of Belarus.

On the night of October 21, 2024 (from 20:00 on October 20), the enemy will attack Ukraine with various types of missiles, "Shahed" type UAVs and unspecified drones.

As of 09:30, radio engineering troops of the Air Force detected and escorted 119 means of air attack of the enemy:

- 1 Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missile (from Crimea);

- 1 Kh-35 guided air missile (from the airspace in the Black Sea area);

- 1 Kh-31P guided air missile (from the airspace in the Black Sea area);

- 116 enemy UAVs (launch areas: Kursk, Orel, Primorsko-Akhtarsk - Russian Federation).

The air attack is repulsed by aviation, anti-aircraft missile forces, electronic warfare units and mobile fire groups of the Air Force and the Defense Forces of Ukraine.

At this time, there is confirmation of the shooting down of 59 enemy UAVs in the Odesa, Mykolaiv, Kherson, Vinnytsia, Khmelnytskyi, Zhytomyr, Kyiv, Sumy, Kirovohrad, Cherkasy, Chernihiv, and Poltava regions.

In addition, 45 Russian drones were lost in location. Up to 10 enemy UAVs are in the airspace of Ukraine. There are several UAV hits on the civil infrastructure of Ukraine.

The Russian Border Incursion

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a US based think tank, in its Oct 20 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment reported that Ukrainian forces recently advanced north of Sudzha amid continued fighting in Ukraine's main salient in Kursk Oblast on October 20. Geolocated footage published on October 20 indicates that Ukrainian forces recently advanced east of Cherkassoye Porechnoye (north of Sudzha).

Russian sources claimed that Russian forces attacked north of Sudzha near Malaya Loknya and southeast of Sudzha near Plekhovo and that Ukrainian forces attacked southeast of Korenevo near Kruglenkoye and Leonidovo. A Kremlin-affiliated Russian milblogger claimed that information about Russian forces seizing Plekhovo is unconfirmed. Elements of the Russian 155th Naval Infantry Brigade (Pacific Fleet, Eastern Military District [EMD]) are reportedly operating near Zeleny Shlyakh (southeast of Korenevo), and elements of the "Alabai" reconnaissance group are reportedly operating in Kursk Oblast.

The Khortytsia operational-strategic group

(Responsible for the northeastern part of Ukraine. )

Kharkiv Sector: Over the last day Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 4 Russian attacks in the area of Vovchansk. 2 engagements continue.

Kupyansk Sector: Russian Forces carried out 11 offensive actions against Ukrainian defensive positions near Holubivka, Petropavlivka, Pishchane, Novosynove, Kolsynkivka, Lozova and Vyshneve. 4 engagements continue.

Lyman Sector: Russian Forces carried out 20 offensive actions against Ukrainian defensive positions near Hrekivka, Novomykhailivka, Novosadove, Terny, Yampolivka, Zarichne and the Bryanskyy Forest. 1 engagement continues.

Siversk Sector: There has been no significant change in the combat environment in the last 24 hours. Russian Forces carried out 1 offensive action against Ukrainian defensive positions near Ivano-Darivka.

Kramatorsk Sector: Russian forces carried out 2 offensive actions near Stupochky.

Toretsk Sector: Russian forces carried out 4 offensive actions with air support near Toretsk and Shcherbynivka. 1 engagement continues.

The Tavria operational-strategic group

(Responsible for the central-eastern and southeastern part of Ukraine.)

Pokrovsk Sector : Russian forces conducted 45 attacks against Ukrainian defences in the vicinity of Vozdvyzhenka, Novotorestske, Myrolyubivka, Promin, Mykolaivka, Sukhyi Yar and Selydove. 4 engagements are ongoing.

Kurakhove Sector: This was the busiest sector over the last day with Russian forces conducted 53 attacks against Ukrainian defences in the vicinity of Novodmytrivka, Hirnyk, Kurakhivka, Kurakhove, Maksymilyanivka, Konstantinivka, Antonivka and Vodyane. 2 engagements continue.

Vremivka Sector: Russian forces made 11 assaults against Ukrainian positions near Novoukrainka and Bohoyavlenka. 3 engagements continue.

Orikhiv Sector: Russian forces made 3 unsuccessful attempts to advance against Ukrainian positions near Robotyne.

The Odesa operational-strategic group

(Responsible for Kherson, Qırım, (also known as Crimea) and the Black Sea.)

Prydniprovsk Sector: In this sector, over the last day, Russian forces made 6 unsuccessful attempts to force Ukrainian units from their positions on the left bank of the Dnipro.

TEMPORARILY OCCUPIED TERRITORIES

Nothing major to report.

THE HOME FRONT

Russian attacks against Ukraine kill 5, injure 38 on Oct 20

Russian attacks across Ukraine killed at least 5 people and injured at least 38 over the past day, including a child, regional authorities reported early on Oct. 21. The Kyiv Independent reports.

Ukrainian air defences shot down 59 of the 116 Shahed-type attack drones launched by Russia overnight, the Air Force said. Forty-five drones were reportedly "lost" on Ukrainian territory, and 10 more were still present in the Ukrainian airspace at the time of the publication.

Russia also attacked Ukraine with an Iskander-M or North Korean KN-23 ballistic missile, one Kh-35 guided aerial missile, and one Kh-31P guided aerial missile.

Russia launched attack drones against Kyiv overnight, all of which were reportedly destroyed. One man was injured, suffering burns to his face, the city authorities said.

A Russian missile attack against the city of Kryvyi Rih in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast late on Oct. 20 injured four people, Governor Serhii Lysak reported. The victims included a 12-year-old girl, a 22-year-old man, and two women aged 63 and 36. A hotel, five multi-story buildings, a cultural facility, a bank, two shops, and 14 cars were damaged.

Russian attacks against Donetsk Oblast injured three residents in Novoselydivka, Kurakhove, and Illinka, according to Governor Vadym Filashkin.

A Russian airstrike against the city of Kharkiv on the evening of Oct. 20 injured at least 13 people, the State Emergency Service said.

Earlier the same day, a 71-year-old man and a 72-year-old woman were found dead under the rubble following a Russian attack against the village of Novoplatonivka, Governor Oleh Syniehubov reported.

Russian attacks against Kherson Oblast injured two people, according to the regional governor, Oleksandr Prokudin. Two high-rise buildings, 23 houses, a farm building, and cars were damaged.

Russia launched drone strikes against the Shalyhyne community in Sumy Oblast on Oct. 20, killing a resident, regional authorities reported. Overnight attacks against the region hit a critical infrastructure facility, leading to blackouts in several settlements.

Cherkasy, Khmelnytskyi, Luhansk, Mykolaiv, Odesa, Vinnytsia, Chernihiv, Poltava, and Kirovohrad oblasts were also attacked, but no casualties were reported.

Russian attack against Zaporizhzhia kills 2, injures 15

A Russian strike against the southeastern city of Zaporizhzhia on the morning of Oct. 21 killed two people and injured 15, The Kyiv Indeprendent reported citing Governor Ivan Fedorov.

At least three of the injured are in serious condition.

Some 30 buildings were damaged after Russia struck the residential area of the city early on Oct. 21. The full consequences of the attack are being determined.

Fedorov did not say what weaponry Russia used in the attack but reported ballistic missile warnings several times during the day.

Zaporizhzhia, the regional center of the partially occupied Zaporizhzhia Oblast, is a common target of Russian attacks. Some 710,000 residents lived in the city before the outbreak of the full-scale war in 2022.

RUSSIAN WORLD

More charges, dismissals in Russian Defence Sector

The UK Ministry of Defence in their Oct 21 Intelligence Update on Ukraine stated that on October 7, 2024, Russian media reported that prosecutors have brought additional charges against former Deputy Defence Minister Timur Ivanov, who was previously charged in April 2024. The first of these cases involves the alleged embezzlement of 200 m roubles (~$2 m USD) during the procurement of two ships for the Kerch strait ferry line, which have subsequently been damaged during the war. The second is the alleged embezzlement of 3 bn roubles (~$200 m USD) from Interkommerts bank while facilitating or directing the purchase of foreign currency.

Charges continue to stack up against former senior Russian defence officials as part of what now seems to be a major crackdown on embezzlement by senior officials below executive or cabinet level.

Russian media also reports that eight officials holding general officer ranks have been dismissed from agencies including the Investigative Committee, the Ministry of Emergency Situations, and the Federal Penitentiary Service. Independent Russian media speculates that this is due to impending corruption charges. If true, this a potential indicator that corruption crackdowns are spreading from their previous narrow focus on the defence sector.

Ukraine says it struck Russian military airfield, explosives factory

Ukraine said on Oct. 20 that it attacked Russia's "largest explosives plant" and an airfield overnight, the latest in a series of long-range drone attacks in the rear to slowly grind down the bigger foe's powerful war machine from afar.

The Kyiv Independent reported citing a source in the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) that the drones targeted the large state-owned Sverdlov Plant in the city of Dzerzhinsk in the Nizhny Novgorod region, some 900 kilometers deep into Russia.

The plant has been under sanctions by the U.S. and the EU since 2023, over what the U.S. State Department says is its work "acquiring goods in support of Russia's war effort." The factory produces explosives, industrial chemicals, detonators and ammunition, the U.S. said in a press release when the sanctions were announced.

The source told the Kyiv Independent that the plant produces aviation and artillery shells, aviation bombs, and warheads that help Russia continue waging its war against Ukraine.

The General Staff of Ukraine's Armed Forces reported later in the day that Ukraine had also struck the Lipetsk-2 airfield in the Lipetsk region, located over 400 kilometers from the Ukrainian border. This attack targeted ammunition depots, fuel storage facilities and aircraft on an airfield known to be home to Russian Su-34, Su-35 and MiG-31 aircraft, it added.

Ukrainian forces attacked infrastructure at a military airfield in Russia's Lipetsk region and an explosives-manufacturing enterprise in the Nizhny Novgorod region, Kyiv's General Staff said on Sunday.

The confirmation came after Russian officials and Telegram channels said Ukraine had targeted those regions in an overnight drone attack. The Ukrainian General Staff added that it was still assessing the extent of damages.

Deserting North Korean soldier apprehended in Russia, sent to Kursk

Eighteen North Korean soldiers were caught by Russian forces in the Komarichsky district of Bryansk Oblast. New Voice reports.

Around 40 North Korean military instructors were present with about fifty Russian soldiers in a wooded area near Kolyachki in Kursk Oblast's Khomutovsky district from the very beginning.

The North Koreans were training Russian troops on the military use of high-altitude balloons, while the Russians were teaching the North Koreans modern infantry combat techniques based on the experience from the so-called “special military operation” (SVO).

After completing their training, the North Korean soldiers were left in the forest for several days without food or guidance regarding their future plans - some of them decided to leave their positions to seek out the Russian Armed Forces command on Oct. 14.

Within two days, on Oct. 16, the missing soldiers were found and detained by Russian forces, approximately 60 kilometres from their escape location.

All 40 North Korean soldiers who were stationed in the Khomutovsky district have now been relocated to the Lgovsky district of Kursk Oblast for further involvement in assault operations.

Russian pilot suspected of war crimes found dead.

A Russian air force pilot and accused war criminal, Dmitry Golenkov, involved, among other things, in the missile strike that targeted the Amstor shopping mall in Ukraine’s Kremenchuk on June 27, 2022, was eliminated in Russia.

Ukrinform reports, citing a sources with Ukraine’s Defence Intelligence (HUR).

On the morning of October 20, Golenkov's body was found in an apple orchard in the village of Suponevo outside Bryansk, with multiple head injuries, “likely caused by a hammer”, the HUR defense intelligence agency noted, warning of a “just retribution” coming for every war crime committed.

Golenkov was a pilot with the 52nd heavy bomber aviation regiment of the Russian Aerospace Force (military unit 33310), based at the Shaykovka airfield, a home for Tu-22M3 bombers.

INTERNATIONAL NEWS

NATO's Rutte: North Korea sending troops to Ukraine would escalate conflict

If North Korea were to send troops to Ukraine to fight on Russia's behalf it would significantly escalate the conflict, Reuters reported citing a post by NATO Chief Mark Rutte on social media platform X on Monday.

Rutte, who took office at NATO at the start of the month, said he had a discussion with South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol about the alliance’s close partnership with Seoul, focusing on defense industrial cooperation and the interconnected security of the Euro-Atlantic and Indo-Pacific regions.

Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said last week that North Korea was preparing to send 10,000 soldiers to help Moscow's war effort, and that some North Korean officers were already deployed on Russian-occupied Ukrainian territory.

The West has long accused North Korea of supplying weapons to Russia. Rutte and the Pentagon both said last week that they have found no evidence yet of a North Korean military presence on the ground in Ukraine.

South Korea summons Russian envoy to protest North Korea troop dispatch.

South Korea's foreign ministry summoned the Russian ambassador in Seoul on Monday to protest over what it has called the sending of North Korean troops to Russia for deployment in Ukraine. Reuters reports.

The Kremlin declined to directly answer a query on whether North Korean troops were going to fight in Ukraine but spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Moscow's cooperation with Pyongyang was not directed against third countries.

South Korea's first vice foreign minister Kim Hong-kyun called in Russian ambassador Georgy Zinoviev and urged the immediate withdrawal of North Korean soldiers from Russia, the ministry said in a statement.

The Kremlin has previously dismissed South Korean assertions that North Korea may have sent some military personnel to help Russia against Ukraine.

Kim said the participation of North Korean troops in the war in Ukraine violated U.N. resolutions and the U.N. charter and posed serious threats to the security of South Korea and beyond.

"We condemn North Korea's illegal military cooperation, including its dispatch of troops to Russia, in the strongest terms," the ministry quoted Kim as saying.
"We will respond jointly with the international community by mobilising all available means against acts that threaten our core security interests."

Zinoviev told Kim that cooperation between Moscow and Pyongyang was in line with international law and was not directed against the security interests of South Korea, the Russian embassy said in a Facebook post.

Moldova's Sandu advances to presidential run-off, preliminary results show narrow 'yes' for EU referendum

Moldovan President Maia Sandu came in first in the initial round of the country's presidential election on Oct. 20 with 42% of the vote, heading for a run-off on Nov. 3, the Moldovan electoral commission reported.

Pro-EU Sandu will face off against her main competitor, Alexandr Stoianoglo, who is supported by the pro-Russian Party of Socialists and gained roughly 26% of the vote in the first round.

Voters were almost evenly divided on a referendum to enshrine the country's path to European Union accession in the Moldovan constitution.

Preliminary results show that the pro-EU voters won by a razor-thin margin, securing 50.42% of the vote against 49.58% who voted "no," the country's electoral commission said.

The results are based on 99.5% of the counted votes.

Alleged Russian Election Interference

The election results have been tainted by allegations of Russian interference, with Moldovan lawmakers claiming that Moscow spent millions of dollars in a campaign to unseat Sandu and vote down the EU referendum.

Moldovan authorities have claimed that over $15 million in Russian funds have reportedly been funnelled to over 130,000 Moldovans, with voters instructed on how to cast their ballots in the election. Pro-Russian oligarch Ilan Shor, a Moldovan-Israeli tycoon, was accused of laundering the money and orchestrating the network, despite his own political party being banned.

Sandu decried the alleged interference in a speech at her campaign headquarters on Oct. 20.
"We have clear evidence that these criminal groups aimed to buy 300,000 votes," she said, according to European Pravda. Sandu called the scheme "a fraud of unprecedented proportions."

The Kremlin's efforts are part of a broader attempt to undermine Moldova's pro-Western leadership. Tensions between Moscow and Chisinau have been mounting since February 2022 amid fears that Russia's war in Ukraine may spill into Moldova via Transnistria, an unrecognised breakaway territory occupied by Russian troops since 1991.

The U.S., U.K., and Canada warned of potential Russian interference in Moldova's elections in a joint statement issued on June 13.

"If Russia's election meddling proves unsuccessful in Moldova, there is reason to believe Moscow will work to incite protests," the statement said.

Shortly after the warning, Sandu approved changes to the country's treason laws, allowing some wartime treason laws to apply to peacetime, as well as extending punishments and creating a new category of laws for assisting a foreign state.

Moldova launched EU accession talks in Luxembourg on June 25, the same day that Ukraine began its long-awaited membership negotiations. The Oct. 20 referendum, if passed, would amend Moldova's constitution to formally include the country's accession to the EU.

MILITARY & TECH