THE RUSSO-UKRAINE WAR BRIEF
For: 2024-09-21
Slava Ukraini! In early 2022 I began a Telegram channel aggregating news from a number of sources daily on the war in Ukraine. In June 2023 I began providing a daily draft for the Ukraine War Brief Podcast collecting news from over 70 sources daily, much of which formed the basis of the script. While the Podcast no longer exists I have continued to make this Brief available both on my own Substack and The People’s Media for those who wish to keep up with events on a daily basis.
All the latest news on the Russo-Ukraine War 6 days per week
ALONG THE CONTACT LINE
GSAFU Morning Report
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in its Operational Information update at 22:00 on Sep 20 stated that day 941 of the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation against Ukraine was about to begin.
During the past day, 190 combat engagements took place. Over the past 24 hours, the enemy carried out 4 missile strikes, 54 air strikes, 671 drone strikes and more than 3,700 artillery strikes across the positions of Ukrainian forces.
At the same time, Ukrainian soldiers continue to inflict losses in manpower and equipment on the occupying troops, exhausting the enemy along the entire front line and continue to disrupt the plans of Russian occupiers to advance deep into the territory of Ukraine.
Air Force Daily Report
On the night of September 21, 2024, radio engineering troops of the Air Force detected and escorted 25 enemy air attack vehicles. The occupiers hit Dnipropetrovsk region with four "Iskander-M" /KN -23 ballistic missiles from occupied Crimea and the Rostov region. and five Kh-59/69 guided air missiles from the airspace of TOT of the Zaporizhzhia region. Also, the enemy released 16 attack UAVs of the "Shahed" type from Primorsko-Akhtarsk and Kursk - Russian Federation.
The air attack of the enemy was repulsed by aviation, anti-aircraft missile forces, mobile fire groups and units of the Defense Forces of Ukraine.
As a result of the anti-aircraft battle, 5 Kh-59/69 guided air missiles and 11 attack UAVs were shot down. Five more unmanned aerial vehicles were lost in location as a result of countermeasures by EW.
Anti-aircraft defense worked in Dnipropetrovsk, Kirovohrad, Sumy, Poltava, Odesa and Mykolaiv regions.
The Russian Border Incursion
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a US based think tank, in its Sep 20 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment stated that Ukrainian forces reportedly continued attacking west of the salient in Kursk Oblast on Sep 20 but did not make any confirmed advances. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that Russian forces repelled Ukrainian attacks near Novyi Put and Medvedzhye (southwest and southeast of Glushkovo, respectively). Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces are also continuing attacks near Krasnooktyabrskoye and Volfino (both southwest of Glushkovo) and are trying to encircle Russian forces in Veseloye (northeast of Volfino and southwest of Glushkovo). Some milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces conducted a reduced company-sized mechanized assault near Veseloye on Sep 20, but that Russian forces repelled the attack.
Russian sources claimed that Russian forces made further advances on the southwestern edge of the Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast on Sep 20. Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces advanced in fields north and east of Darino and in fields southeast of Nikolayevo-Darino (both southeast of Korenevo), which are both on the southwestern edge of the Kursk Oblast salient and which Russian sources claimed that Russian forces seized on Sep 19. ISW has not yet observed confirmation of these claims, nor confirmation that Russian forces have seized Darino or Nikolayevo-Darino. Russian sources claimed that elements of the Russian 155th Naval Infantry Brigade (Pacific Fleet, Eastern Military District [EMD]) are operating in the Darino-Nikolayevo-Darino area.
Fighting otherwise continued through the Kursk Oblast salient on Sep 20, but neither Russian nor Ukrainian forces made confirmed advances. The Russian MoD claimed that Russian forces repelled Ukrainian attacks near Lyubimovka (southeast of Korenevo), Kremyanoye (east of Koreveno), and Malaya Loknya (north of Sudzha).
Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces are attacking on the western side of the salient from Snagost towards Gordeevka and on the eastern side of the salient from Borki towards Plekhovo. Russian sources amplified footage of Russian artillery strikes against a Ukrainian pontoon crossing over the Psyol River near Kurilovka (south of Sudzha). Elements of the Russian "Veterany" Assault Brigade (Russian Volunteer Corps) and "Pyatnashka" international volunteer brigade (Donetsk People's Republic) are reportedly operating in Kursk Oblast.
The Khortytsia operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the northeastern part of Ukraine. )
Kharkiv Sector: Over the last day Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 3 Russian attacks near Vovchansk. 1 engagement is currently ongoing.
Kupyansk Sector: Russian Forces carried out 19 unsuccessful offensive actions against Ukrainian defensive positions near Synkivka, Stepova Novoselivka, Kruhlyakivka, Lozova and Stelmahivka. 3 engagement is currently ongoing.
Lyman Sector: Russian Forces carried out 18 offensive actions against Ukrainian defensive positions near Cherneshchyna, Druzhelyubivka, Hrekivka, Nevske, Novosadove, Terny and Zarichne. 1 engagement is currently ongoing.
Siversk Sector: There has been no significant change in the combat environment in this sector. Russian forces made 1 assault against Ukrainian positions near Vyimka.
Kramatorsk Sector: Russian forces carried out 6 offensive actions near Chasiv Yar, Ivanivske and Bila Hora. The situation is under control.
Toretsk Sector: Russian forces carried out 9 offensive actions with air support near Dachne, Toretsk and Shcherbynivka. 1 engagement continues.
The Tavria operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the central-eastern and southeastern part of Ukraine.)
Pokrovsk Sector : There was a high intensity of combat in this sector over the last day. The enemy conducted 32 attacks against Ukrainian defences in this area over the last day in the vicinity of Zelene Pole, Vozdvyzhenko, Novotoretske, Myrolybuivka, Hrodivka, Krasni Yar, Novohrodivka, Marynivka and Selydone. 2 engagements are ongoing.
Kurakhove Sector: The heaviest fighting over the last day took place in this sector. The enemy, supported by aviation, made 49 assaults on Ukrainian positions near Tsukuryne, Zhelanne Pershe, Olekssandropil, Heorhiivka, Dalnie, Katerynivka and Konstantinivka. 8 engagements are ongoing.
Vremivka Sector: Russian forces made 12 assaults against Ukrainian positions near Prechystivka and Bohoyavlenka and Vuhledar. 2 engagements are ongoing.
Orikhiv Sector: Russian forces made 6 assaults against Ukrainian positions near Lobkove, Novodanylivka and Mala Tokmachka.
The Odesa operational-strategic group
(Responsible for Kherson, Qırım, (also known as Crimea) and the Black Sea.)
Prydniprovsk Sector: In this sector, over the last day, the situation has not changed significantly. Russian forces made 2 unsuccessful attempts to force Ukrainian units from their positions on the left bank of the Dnipro.
TEMPORARILY OCCUPIED TERRITORIES
Nothing major to report.
THE HOME FRONT
Deadly Russian missile strike kills 3 civilians, including child, in Ukraine’s Dnipropetrovsk Oblast
A Russian missile attack on the central Ukrainian city of Kryvyi Rih killed three and injured three people, according to local officials. The strike, which occurred on 21 September targeted residential areas in the city centre. Euromaidan Press reports.
Since the full-scale invasion in February 2022, Russia has frequently struck not only military installations but also civilian areas, infrastructure, and residential buildings, resulting in a high number of civilian casualties and widespread destruction, which constitutes a war crime.
Among the deceased were a 12-year-old boy and two elderly women aged 77 and 79, according to Oleksandr Vilkul, Head of the Military Administration of Kryvyi Rih. One of the women was rescued from the rubble but succumbed to her injuries in the ambulance. Three others, including a teenager, were wounded and hospitalised.
The attack caused significant damage to the city’s infrastructure. According to Vilkul, two private houses were completely destroyed, while approximately 25 others sustained damage. A school, several garages, and numerous vehicles were also affected.
RUSSIAN WORLD
U.S. national tortured to death in Ukraine by Russian soldiers, Moscow says
Russell Bentley, a U.S. national who went missing in Russian-controlled eastern Ukraine early this year, is believed to have been tortured to death by Russian soldiers who are now set to go on trial, Russia's top investigative body said on Friday. Reuters reports.
Bentley died in the Russian-controlled city of Donetsk in April, Margarita Simonyan, head of Russia's state media outlet RT, wrote at the time, saying he had been "fighting there for our guys" and working with Russia's Sputnik news service.
Bentley, born in 1960, was a self-declared supporter of Russian-backed forces in Ukraine. The Russian state news agency RIA reported that he had joined pro-Russian fighters in eastern Ukraine in 2014, later working with Sputnik and obtaining Russian citizenship.
The Investigative Committee said in a statement that it had completed its probe and accused three Russian servicemen of torturing Bentley to death in Donetsk on April 8.
It said two of the soldiers had then put his body in a car and blown it up. A fourth soldier had been ordered the following day to move Bentley's remains to another location in an attempt to conceal the crime.
The Committee's statement said the accused soldiers, whom it named, were familiarising themselves with the allegations before the indictment was sent for approval.
It said they would variously be tried on charges ranging from exceeding their authority, using physical violence and torture, and causing death by negligence, to attempted concealment of a serious crime. It did not say whether or not they had denied the accusations.
Russian media outlets have suggested that the soldiers may have mistaken Bentley - the subject of a 2022 interview with Rolling Stone magazine titled "The Bizarre Story of How a Hardcore Texas Leftist Became a Frontline Putin propagandist" - for a U.S. spy.
Ukrainian forces destroy thousands of tonnes of ammunition in another strike overnight
Ukrainian forces have destroyed two military depots belonging to the Russian Armed Forces, which contained thousands of tonnes of ammunition, including supplies sourced from North Korea. The GSAFU reports.
Ukraine struck the Tikhoretsk arsenal in Russia's Krasnodar Krai on the night of 20-21 September.
This facility, one of Russia's three largest ammunition storage depots, plays a crucial role in the Russian military logistics system.
Available information indicates that an echelon containing at least 2,000 tonnes of ammunition, including supplies from North Korea, was located at the depot during the attack. The Podlyot radar station, responsible for detecting aerial targets near the arsenal, was also targeted in the strike.
In addition, Ukraine's Security Service struck the 23rd arsenal belonging to the Main Artillery Directorate of Russia's Defence Ministry near the settlement of Oktyabrsky in Tver Oblast.
Fire and detonation were recorded near both military arsenals.
49% of Russians support withdrawal of troops from Ukraine, poll says
Nearly 50% of Russian people support withdrawing troops from Ukraine and negotiating for peace, even without achieving the Kremlin's military objectives, The Kyiv Independent reports according to a joint survey conducted by independent pollsters ExtremeScan and Chronicles.
The figures represent a striking shift from the overwhelming support for the war indicated by past polls. A February survey from the Levada Center, an independent Russian polling organisation, found that 77% of Russians supported the full-scale war in Ukraine.
According to polls conducted by ExtremeScan and Chronicles in September 2024, 49% of Russians support the immediate withdrawal of troops from Ukraine and peace talks with Kyiv, an increase of nearly 10% from the three previous polls held since February 2023.
When asked about Ukraine's incursion into Kursk Oblast, respondents said it was more important to oust Ukrainian troops from Russian territory than to seize more ground in eastern Ukraine.
A majority of those surveyed (53%) said they supported removing Ukrainian forces from Kursk Oblast while only 15% said Russia should occupy more territory in Ukraine.
The pollsters also probed the extent to which Russians were willing to support the full-scale invasion. According to the results, 32% are prepared to participate in the war if ordered by the Russian Defense Ministry, while 29% said they are not prepared to fight.
Another 29% said they would support a new wave of Russian mobilisation.
The results are based on responses from 800 interviewees over the age of 18. The poll was timed to coincide with the two-year anniversary of the start of Russia's mobilisation campaign.
Both Chronicles and ExtremeScan began as startups in 2022 after the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The research projects were initiated by Russian antiwar activists looking to undermine the Kremlin's claims of broad popular support through innovative polling tactics.
"It's very difficult in a dictatorship, during a war, to get what people are really thinking because they tend to identify themselves with the majority, they tend to lie because they are afraid," Alexei Minyaylo, founder of Chronicles, told the Moscow Times in October 2022.
NEWS WORLDWIDE
Iran withheld launchers for missiles sent to Russia, sources say
Iran did not include mobile launchers with the close-range ballistic missiles that Washington last week accused Tehran of delivering to Russia for use against Ukraine, according to three sources with knowledge of the matter. Reuters reports.
The sources - a European diplomat, a European intelligence official and a U.S. official - said it was not clear why Iran did not supply launchers with the Fath-360 missiles, raising questions about when and if the weapons will be operational.
The U.S. official, who like the other sources spoke on condition of anonymity, said Iran had not delivered the launchers at the time of the U.S. announcement about Iran's delivery of the weapons. The European intelligence official said without elaborating that they did not expect Iran to provide launchers.
Two experts told Reuters there could be several reasons why the launchers were not sent. One is that Russia may plan to modify trucks to carry the missiles, as Iran has done. Another is that by withholding the launchers, Iran is allowing space for new talks with Western powers on easing tensions.
Reuters determined through shipping data that a Russian freighter sanctioned by Washington, the Port Olya-3, made voyages between Iran’s Caspian Sea port of Amirabad and the Russian port of Olya several times between May and Sept. 12.
Fabian Hinz, an expert on Iranian missiles with the International Institute for Strategic Studies, said he could not confirm that Tehran withheld the launchers.
According to Hinz, one reason Iran wouldn't send launchers may be that the civilian trucks that Iran modified to launch these and other missiles are not robust enough to operate in rough terrain during Ukraine's harsh winter. Iran modifies trucks made by Mercedes and other companies and turns them into easily disguised missile launchers, he said.
Zelenskyy expects Biden to make "important decisions" for Ukraine before his presidency ends
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy believes that his US counterpart Joe Biden can make "important decisions" to strengthen Ukraine's defence capabilities before the end of his term. Zelenskyy said during a meeting with journalists on Friday, Interfax-Ukraine reported.
Zelenskyy expressed his belief that Biden can "strengthen Ukraine and adopt important decisions to make Ukraine stronger and protect its independence while he is still the president of the United States".
"I believe this is still a historic mission, at least from the Ukrainian perspective. Because he has his own life and his own political career. I can't speak to what matters most to him. I am speaking only from the perspective of this war," Zelenskyy added.
He noted that Biden's decision "depends on many factors", particularly whether he is receptive to Ukraine's arguments.
"We have made some decisions in the history of our relationship with Biden, and we had very interesting and difficult dialogues. He changed his mind later," the president said.
Zelenskyy further noted that he wants to hear the opinion of Kamala Harris, Vice President and Democratic presidential candidate, regarding Ukraine's Victory Plan.
Telegram cooperates with global authorities after Durov’s arrest
After the arrest of Pavel Durov and his release under judicial supervision, the social media platform Telegram has begun cooperating with law enforcement not only in France but also in other countries around the world, Andriy Kovalenko, head of the Center for Countering Disinformation at Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council announced on Saturday, Sep 21.
“For Russian intelligence, this is very bad. It’s a complete failure,” Kovalenko commented on the aftermath of the arrest of Telegram’s founder.
On Aug. 24, Telegram’s founder, Pavel Durov, who is of Russian origin and holds citizenship in at least four countries, was arrested at an airport in Paris after returning from Azerbaijan on a private jet.
French law enforcement believes that by refusing to moderate content on the platform, Durov became an accomplice to crimes committed through Telegram. Durov has been charged with 12 offences, including drug distribution, cybercrimes, fraud, and possession of child pornography.
On Aug. 28, Durov was placed under judicial supervision and released on bail for €5 million. According to French media, Durov stated during interrogation that he had cooperated with French counterintelligence and provided his phone to the police.
On Sep. 12, the French newspaper Libération reported that Telegram started cooperating with French investigators following the detention of Durov.
MILITARY & TECH
US likely to send medium-range missiles for Ukraine’s F-16s
The U.S. is considering sending Ukraine a medium-range missile for its new F-16 fleet as part of a $375 million military aid package expected to be announced Monday. Politico reports.
The Joint Standoff Weapon, already used by the U.S. Air Force and Navy and a number of allies, can hit targets over 70 miles away, giving Ukraine a major upgrade to the weapons it’s using to strike Russian forces and allowing them to do it at safer distances.
The package, which is still being finalised according to two U.S. officials and a person familiar with the issue, will also include artillery munitions, rockets and air defence missiles. The people were granted anonymity to discuss the package ahead of the announcement and acknowledged that the contents could still change before the official announcement is made.
A State Department official declined to comment on a pending arms transfer. The Defense Department did not return a request for comment.
The $375 million will be the largest package the U.S. has sent Ukraine since May, and could be the last presidential drawdown of equipment before the end of the fiscal year on Sept. 30. Under authority granted by Congress, the U.S. pulls existing weapons from its stockpiles, and the money is meant to purchase replacement munitions and equipment.
The Pentagon is working with Congress to roll the remaining $5.8 billion left in the presidential drawdown authority over to the next fiscal year. No deal has been struck yet as lawmakers struggle to come up with a plan to avoid a government shutdown on Oct.1, which will occur if no stopgap funding measure is passed in time.
The new missiles, while not having the reach that Kyiv has been asking for, will still give Ukrainian pilots a powerful new weapon as their forces battle advancing Russian troops in the country’s east, where Ukrainian troops have been slowly losing ground.
The 70-plus-mile range would allow pilots to stay away from the front lines and Russian air defences, giving Kyiv a new way to target those defences and frontline weapons depots, complicating operations for Russian forces.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has pressed the White House to allow his forces to use long-range Army Tactical Missile Systems and British-made Storm Shadows deeper inside Russia, to no avail. He is slated to meet with President Joe Biden and Vice President and Democratic nominee Kamala Harris next Friday at the White House, where he will present his plan to end the war, and where he is also expected to make his case for the missile restrictions to be lifted.
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