THE RUSSO-UKRAINE WAR BRIEF
For: 2024-10-30
Slava Ukraini! In early 2022 I began a Telegram channel aggregating news from a number of sources daily on the war in Ukraine. In June 2023 I began providing a daily draft for the Ukraine War Brief Podcast collecting news from over 70 sources daily, much of which formed the basis of the script. While the Podcast no longer exists I have continued to make this Brief available both on my own Substack and The People’s Media for those who wish to keep up with events on a daily basis.
All the latest news on the Russo-Ukraine War 6 days per week
ALONG THE CONTACT LINE
GSAFU Morning Report
GSAFU Morning Report
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in its Operational Information update at 22:00 on Oct 29 stated that day 970 of the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation against Ukraine was about to begin.
During the past day, 158 combat engagements took place. Over the past 24 hours, the enemy carried out 2 missile strikes, 57 air strikes, 539 drone strikes and more than 3,000 artillery strikes across the positions of Ukrainian forces.
At the same time, Ukrainian soldiers continue to inflict losses in manpower and equipment on the occupying troops, exhausting the enemy along the entire front line and continue to disrupt the plans of Russian occupiers to advance deep into the territory of Ukraine.
ISW - Russia’s rate of advance in Ukraine remains consistent with positional warfare.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a US based think tank, in its Oct 29 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment reported that the rate of Russian advances in Ukraine has increased in recent weeks but remains slow and consistent with positional warfare rather than with rapid mechanised manoeuvre—emphasising how generally stagnant Russian advances have been after over two and half years of war.
Recent Western reporting linking the Russian rate of advance in September 2024 with Russian advances at the start of the war is highly misleading. ISW assesses that Russian forces advanced at an average rate of 1,265 square kilometres per day in March 2022—roughly 90 times the roughly 14 square kilometres that ISW calculates that Russian forces have taken per day in September 2024. Rapid Russian advances deep into Ukrainian territory, including the temporary seizure of large portions of Kyiv, Chernihiv, Sumy, and Kharkiv oblasts characterised the first month of the Russian full-scale invasion, whereas more recent Russian advances have been characterised by small-scale, localised, tactical advances.
Russian forces have been making gains in eastern Ukraine recently, but comparing those gains to the initial deep Russian penetration into Ukraine at the start of the war misleadingly frames these most recent advances. For example, Russian forces seized the settlement of Vuhledar as of Oct 1, 2024, have continued to advance north and northwest of Vuhledar, and have made significant tactical gains in and near Selydove (southeast of Pokrovsk) over the course of the past week.
These respective advances are tactically significant but do not represent a general increase in the pace of Russian advances across the frontline, much of which remains relatively stagnant, nor are they within two orders of magnitude of the rate of Russian advance in the first stage of the war. The current rate of Russian advances is consistent, rather, with ISW's recent assessment that the Russian command has likely ordered Russian forces to significantly increase their tempo of mechanised attacks throughout the theatre before the full onset of muddy ground conditions in the fall months.
Air Force Daily Report
On the night of October 30, 2024 (from 20:00 on October 29), the enemy attacked the private sector in Sumy Oblast with a missile of an unknown type from the Belgorod region, and also attacked 62 attack UAVs of the "Shahed" type and unmanned aerial vehicles of an unknown type from the directions of Orel, Primorsko-Akhtarsk - Russian Federation The enemy's tactical aviation constantly strikes with guided air bombs on the front-line territory in the Sumy, Kharkiv and Donetsk directions.
The air attack was repulsed by anti-aircraft missile troops, aviation, electronic warfare units and mobile fire groups of the Air Force and the Defense Forces of Ukraine.
As of 07:00, 33 enemy UAVs were shot down in the Kyiv, Cherkasy, Khmelnytskyi, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhya, Donetsk, Dnipropetrovsk, Sumy, Chernihiv and Poltava regions.
25 drones were lost in location. Information is being clarified and updated.
The Russian Border Incursion
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a US based think tank, in its Oct 29 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment reported that fighting continued in the main Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast on Oct 29, but there were no confirmed changes to the frontline. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that Russian forces repelled Ukrainian attacks southeast of Korenevo near Darino and Novoivanovka. Fighting continued southeast of Korenevo near Lyubimovka, Nizhny Klin, Novoivanovka, Zeleny Shlyakh, and Nikolaevo-Darino and southeast of Sudzha near Plekhovo on Oct 28 and 29.
Russian sources did not report ground activity in Glushkovsky Raion west of the main Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast on Oct 29.
The Khortytsia operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the northeastern part of Ukraine. )
Kharkiv Sector: Over the last day Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 4 Russian attacks in the area of Lyptsi and Vovchansk. 1 engagement continues.
Kupyansk Sector: Russian Forces carried out 22 offensive actions against Ukrainian defensive positions near Synkivka, Holubivka, Stepova Novoselivka, Kolisynivka, Zahryzove, Bohuslavka and Lozova. 5 engagements continue.
Lyman Sector: Russian Forces carried out 15 offensive actions against Ukrainian defensive positions near Cherneshchyna, Druzhelyubivka, Hrekivka, Novomykhailivka, Nevske, Terny, Torske, Yampil and Serebryanka.
Siversk Sector: Russian forces carried out 13 unsuccessful offensive actions near Bilohorivka, Verkhnokamianske, Ivano-Darivka and Zvanivka.
Kramatorsk Sector: Russian forces carried out 2 unsuccessful offensive actions near Stupochky.
Toretsk Sector: Russian forces carried out 4 offensive actions with air support near Toretsk and Shcherbynivka. 1 engagement continues.
The Tavria operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the central-eastern and southeastern part of Ukraine.)
Pokrovsk Sector : Russian forces conducted 20 attacks against Ukrainian defences concentrating in the vicinity of Myrolyubivka, Promin, Krutnyi Yar, Lysivka, Novohrodivka, Selydove and Vyshneve. 5 engagements continue.
Kurakhove Sector: Today the heaviest exchanges took place in this sector. Russian forces conducted 42 attacks against Ukrainian defences in the vicinity of Novodmytrivka, Novoselydivka, Berestky, Illinka, Maksymilyanivka, Dalnje, Trudove, Katerynivka and Antonivka. 10 engagements continue.
Vremivka Sector: Russian forces, supported by aviation, made 6 assaults against Ukrainian positions near Shakhtarske, Yasna Polyana and Novoukrainka. 4 engagements continue.
Orikhiv Sector: There has been no significant change in the combat environment in the last 24 hours.
The Odesa operational-strategic group
(Responsible for Kherson, Qırım, (also known as Crimea) and the Black Sea.)
Prydniprovsk Sector: In this sector, over the last day, Russian forces made 4 unsuccessful attempts to dislodge Ukrainian units from their positions on the left bank of the Dnipro.
TEMPORARILY OCCUPIED TERRITORIES
Russia is possibly preparing for an offensive in Zaporizhzhia.
Russian units are advancing closer to the front line in Southern Ukraine, Espreso reports citing Petro Andriushchenko, adviser to the mayor of Mariupol.
"We’re seeing a significant movement of new military forces. Newly arrived units from Russia are moving through the Berdyansk direction toward Tokmak. We’re also noticing units pushing closer to the front lines near Vuhledar, Volnovakha district, and the northern part of Mariupol district. Training of new contractors in the Mariupol-Berdyansk area is nearly complete," Andriushchenko said.
According to him, there’s also a notable transfer of manpower, particularly assault units, moving from Berdyansk toward Tokmak.
"This activity spans the Zaporizhzhia front line from Hulyaipole to Vuhledar. Russian aviation is highly active, with both helicopters and aircraft launching guided bombs and missiles. This signals aggressive moves near Vuhledar, where the enemy is attempting to storm. Similar aviation patterns were seen during the occupation of Vuhledar, followed by a brief operational pause. Now, we’re seeing them ramp up again," Andriushchenko added.
THE HOME FRONT
Russian attacks against Ukraine kill 4, injure 41 over the past day.
Russian attacks across Ukraine killed at least four people and injured at least 41 over the past day, including children, the regional authorities reported on the morning of Oct. 30. The Kyiv Independent reports.
Ukrainian air defences shot down 33 of the 62 Russian Shahed-type drones launched overnight, according to the Air Force. Twenty-three of the drones were reported as "lost."
Russia launched yet another drone attack against Kyiv. Fallen debris damaged a multi-story residential building, starting a fire and injuring nine people, including a child, the city's authorities reported.
Russian attacks on Donetsk Oblast killed one person in the village of Sukhi Yaly and injured 10 elsewhere in the oblast, Governor Vadym Filaskin reported. Five people were wounded in the village of Oleksievo-Druzhkivka, two in the town of Myrnohrad, and the remaining three in Kurakhove, Lyman, and Druhkivka.
In Kharkiv Oblast, four people were injured in Russian attacks, Governor Oleh Syniehubov said.
A 39-year-old woman was reportedly injured in the village of Tsaredarivka. Two women aged 68 and 74 and a 10-year-old child were also wounded in the village of Bezruky, the governor reported.
Russian strikes against Kherson Oblast killed three people and injured 15, said the regional governor, Oleksandr Prokudin. Moscow's forces targeted critical infrastructure facilities, an educational institution, a store, and residential areas.
Three people were injured in attacks against Sumy Oblast, the regional military administration reported. One resident was wounded during attacks against the Velyka Pysarivka community on Oct. 29, and two civilians were injured in the Khotin community overnight on Oct. 30.
Chernihiv, Cherkasy, Poltava, Dnipropetrovsk, Khmelnytskyi, Luhansk, Mykolaiv, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts also came under attack, but no casualties were reported.
RUSSIAN WORLD
Fire at missile component plant in Moscow
A fire broke out at the Central Research Institute for Machine Building in Khimki (Moscow Oblast, Russia) on Oct. 30, New Voice reported citing Russian Telegram channels.
Eyewitnesses reported that flames engulfed a workshop on the premises, where tests are usually conducted. Initial reports indicated that the fire spread over an area of approximately 3,000 square metres.
The Russian Ministry of Emergency Situations, however, claimed that the fire was caused by an insulation heater in a workshop producing electrical insulation materials and that the blaze, which spread over an area of 100 square metres, was quickly extinguished.
The Central Scientific Research Institute for Special Machine Building in Khimki is a major enterprise involved in the design and production of structures made from polymer composite materials for the aerospace, petrochemical, transportation, energy, and other industries.
UK Intelligence - Another Russian General arrested in bribery scandal
The UK Ministry of Defence in their Oct 30 Intelligence Update on Ukraine stated that according to the Russian Investigative Committee General-Major Alexander Ogloblin has been arrested and is being held in pre-trial detention for allegedly accepting 10 million rubles in bribes from a telecommunications company, as an inducement to secure Russian Ministry of Defence contracts. Ogloblin had previously been sentenced to four and a half years in prison in February 2022 in relation to separate embezzlement charges. He was granted early release after testifying against his former superior Deputy Chief of the General Staff, and Head of the Main Communications Directorate, General-Lieutenant Vadim Shamarin, who was detained in May 2024.
Ogloblin’s second arrest demonstrates that Russian authorities continue to enthusiastically pursue corruption charges against serving and former defence officials (appointed in the era of former Minister of Defence, Sergei Shoigu), even after achieving initial convictions.
The goal of Russian authorities is almost certainly not the eradication of corruption entirely; this behaviour is fundamental to the functioning of the regime. Instead, Russian authorities are likely seeking to limit corruption to more manageable levels that have a less drastic impact on the functioning of the department.
INTERNATIONAL NEWS
North Korean troops enter Russia’s war against Ukraine
Kyiv is on high alert as it awaits the possible entry of North Korean forces into Russia’s war against Ukraine as soon as this week, in what would be the first intervention by a foreign army with its own troops on either side of the conflict. The Financial Times reports.
Senior Ukrainian intelligence officials told the Financial Times that about 3,000 North Korean troops have been secretly transported in civilian trucks from Russia’s far east to its western Kursk region. One official said that only a few hundred of those 3,000 were special forces, the others being regular troops. They were housed on Monday in barracks about 50km from the Ukrainian border, where they were awaiting further orders from Russian command, the officials said.
The North Korean deployment is expected to bolster a 50,000-strong Russian force that has stepped up efforts in recent days to wrest back control of Kursk, where Kyiv has lost nearly half of the 1,100 sq km of territory it claimed to have captured in a surprise August incursion, according to military analysts.
But Ukrainian intelligence officials have questioned the quality and fighting ability of the North Korean arrivals, describing the majority as inexperienced, low-ranking foot soldiers.
“They have never left their country before . . . They have never fought in actual combat and their experience is very far from the reality of modern warfare,” said a senior Ukrainian intelligence official.
Ukrainian officials said they believed the North Koreans could be used as “cannon fodder” by the Russians, who have employed a brutal yet effective assault tactic of sending “meat waves” of troops across no man’s land.
A senior intelligence official told the FT last week that the North Koreans had been given false documents identifying them as Buryats, an indigenous group in Siberia, to conceal their identities.
Andrei Lankov, a North Korea expert at Kookmin University in Seoul, said the regime’s reluctance to send too many of its citizens abroad — which could risk large-scale defections as well as returnees introducing foreign ideas and influences — would likely limit the total deployment to the low tens of thousands.
North Korea and Russia send political shockwaves with Ukraine war moves.
North Korea's foreign minister arrived in Russia on Tuesday for talks as the Russia-Ukraine war appeared to take a dangerous new turn, with NATO and South Korea expressing alarm that North Korean troops could soon be joining in on Moscow's side. Reuters reported on Oct 29.
U.S. President Joe Biden said Ukraine should strike back against North Korean troops "if they cross into Ukraine."
NATO said on Monday thousands of North Korean troops were moving toward the front line, a development which has prompted Kyiv to call for more weapons and an international plan to keep those troops at bay.
The Pentagon confirmed on Tuesday that some North Korean soldiers are in the Kursk region, a Russian border area where Ukrainian forces staged a major incursion in August and hold hundreds of square kilometres of territory. A couple of thousand more are heading there, it said.
The United States has said any North Korean troops fighting in the war would be "fair game" for Ukrainian attacks and that Washington would not impose any fresh limits on Ukraine's use of U.S. weapons if North Korea entered the fight.
South Korea, which remains technically at war with the nuclear-armed North decades after the 1950-1953 Korean War, also condemned the deployments, with officials in Seoul worried about what Russia may be providing to Pyongyang in return.
North Korean Foreign Minister Choe Son Hui arrived in Russia's far east on Tuesday on her way to Moscow, Russian state media said. Russian state news agencies said it was not clear who Choe, making her second visit in six weeks, would meet. The Kremlin said Russian President Vladimir Putin had no plans to meet her.
Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said after talks with South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol on Tuesday that the North Korean moves were sending the war into a new phase.
"This war is becoming internationalised, extending beyond two countries," Zelenskyy said on X.
"We agreed to strengthen intelligence and expertise exchange, intensify contacts at all levels, especially the highest, in order to develop an action strategy and countermeasures to address this escalation," Zelenskyy said.
Yoon told Zelenskiy that if North Korea receives aid from Russia and is able to glean military experience and knowledge from its involvement in the war it would pose a "great threat" to South Korea's security, his office said.
Zelenskyy calls out White House over Tomahawk missiles leak - No confidentiality between partners
Ukraine's request for Tomahawk missiles was "confidential information" between partners, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy complained on Oct. 30 after a leak in the U.S. media.
The New York Times reported on Oct. 29 that, according to undisclosed U.S. officials, the request for Tomahawk missiles with a range of 2,400 kilometres (1,500 miles) was part of the secretive "non-nuclear deterrence package" included in Ukraine's victory plan.
The sources told the outlet that Washington was unconvinced that Ukraine needed the weaponry and was reluctant to supply them due to their limited numbers.
"It was confidential information between Ukraine and the White House. How to understand these messages?" Zelenskyy said during a press briefing with journalists from Nordic countries. "So this means (that) between partners, there is no (confidentiality)."
According to Zelenskyy, Ukraine requested the missiles on the condition that it would deploy them only if Russia refused to end its war and de-escalate.
"I said that this is a preventive method. I was told that it is an escalation," Zelenskyy said.
Kyiv has been trying to secure additional assistance from U.S. President Joe Biden before he leaves office in January. There are fears that Washington might scale down its support if Republican nominee Donald Trump wins the election on Nov. 5.
MILITARY & TECH
Russia gets armoured vehicles from UAE manufacturer
Recent video footage circulating on Russian social media appears to confirm a new shipment of Streit Group-manufactured armoured vehicles delivered to Russian forces. Defence Blog reports.
One prominent Russian military blogger, going by the name Voennyi Osvedomitel, said: “Presumably, a batch of various armoured vehicles of unknown origin, based on the Toyota Land Cruiser, was purchased for the Russian Armed Forces. These armoured vehicles may be from the UAE or South Africa.”
The video shows more than 20 vehicles based on modified Toyota Land Cruiser and Ford F-550 platforms, specifically identifying Spartan SUT, Cobra, and Cougar models from the UAE-based manufacturer Streit Group.
The videos come amid heightened scrutiny over arms transactions involving Russia, as the conflict in Ukraine continues. It remains unclear if the vehicles were acquired directly from Streit Group or procured through a third-party nation. However, Streit Group has previously sold vehicles to various countries and promoted these armoured models at international defence exhibitions. Some images from past expos and stockpiles reportedly show hundreds of similar vehicles.
The recent arrival adds to an array of armoured vehicles known to be in Russian hands. Notably, Streit Group has a track record of supplying modified armoured vehicles used by private military contractors, such as Wagner Group. In past partnerships, Streit Group collaborated with Russia’s Military-Industrial Company (VPK), designing the Condor/VPK-Ural armoured vehicles for Wagner operatives in conflict zones.
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